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[mugurumakensei]

WW also opens up in Japan this coming week so it should also blow past 800m worldwide.

 

[JB1981]

Adjusted for inflation is a BS comparison for other reasons. If you want to know how popular a superhero film was relative to everything else in theatres during its year of release, here you go:

Rank	Title					DOM Gross	Release Date	Ann. Avg Gross	Avg. Gross Mult
1	The Dark Knight				$534,858,444 	7/18/2008	$55,202,302 	9.69x
2	Marvel's The Avengers			$623,357,910 	5/4/2012	$72,191,281 	8.63x
3	Batman					$251,188,924 	6/23/1989	$33,000,766 	7.61x
4	Spider-Man				$403,706,375 	5/3/2002	$57,563,869 	7.01x
5	Spider-Man 3				$336,530,303 	5/4/2007	$49,880,317 	6.75x
6	Avengers: Age of Ultron			$459,005,868 	5/1/2015	$69,975,569 	6.56x
7	Spider-Man 2				$373,585,825 	6/30/2004	$59,227,007 	6.31x
8	The Dark Knight Rises			$448,139,099 	7/20/2012	$72,191,281 	6.21x
9	Captain America: Civil War		$408,084,349 	5/6/2016	$66,790,970 	6.11x
10	Men in Black				$250,690,539 	7/2/1997	$42,461,771 	5.90x
11	Wonder Woman				$404,000,000 	6/2/2017	$70,000,000 	5.77x
12	Iron Man				$318,412,101 	5/2/2008	$55,202,302 	5.77x
13	Iron Man 3				$409,013,994 	5/3/2013	$72,374,829 	5.65x
14	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2		$389,000,000 	5/5/2017	$70,000,000 	5.56x
15	Batman Forever				$184,031,112 	6/16/1995	$33,671,473 	5.47x
16	Deadpool				$363,070,709 	2/12/2016	$66,790,970 	5.44x
17	Superman				$134,218,018 	12/15/1978	$25,000,000 	5.37x
18	Guardians of the Galaxy			$333,176,600 	8/1/2014	$65,542,400 	5.08x
19	Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	$330,360,194 	3/25/2016	$66,790,970 	4.95x
20	Suicide Squad				$325,100,054 	8/5/2016	$66,790,970 	4.87x
21	X-Men: The Last Stand			$234,362,462 	5/26/2006	$50,886,999 	4.61x
22	Spider-Man Homecoming			$315,000,000 	7/7/2017	$70,000,000 	4.50x
23	Batman Returns				$162,831,698 	6/19/1992	$36,199,432 	4.50x
24	The Incredibles				$261,441,092 	11/5/2004	$59,227,007 	4.41x
25	Iron Man 2				$312,433,331 	5/7/2010	$71,180,641 	4.39x
26	Superman II				$108,185,706 	6/19/1981	$25,000,000 	4.33x
27	300					$210,614,939 	3/9/2007	$49,880,317 	4.22x
28	Hancock					$227,946,274 	7/2/2008	$55,202,302 	4.13x
29	Man of Steel				$291,045,518 	6/14/2013	$72,374,829 	4.02x
30	Captain America: The Winter Soldier	$259,766,572 	4/4/2014	$65,542,400 	3.96x
31	Superman Returns			$200,081,192 	6/28/2006	$50,886,999 	3.93x
32	Batman Begins				$206,852,432 	6/15/2005	$54,579,849 	3.79x
33	Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles		$135,265,915 	3/30/1990	$36,642,628 	3.69x
34	The Amazing Spider-Man			$262,030,663 	7/3/2012	$72,191,281 	3.63x
35	X-Men: Days of Future Past		$233,921,534 	5/23/2014	$65,542,400 	3.57x
36	X2: X-Men United			$214,949,694 	5/2/2003	$60,282,246 	3.57x
37	Doctor Strange				$232,641,920 	11/4/2016	$66,790,970 	3.48x
38	The Mask				$119,938,730 	7/29/1994	$34,833,770 	3.44x
39	Big Hero 6				$222,527,828 	11/7/2014	$65,542,400 	3.40x
40	Men in Black II				$190,418,803 	7/3/2002	$57,563,869 	3.31x
41	Logan					$226,122,357 	3/3/2017	$70,000,000 	3.23x
42	X-Men					$157,299,717 	7/14/2000	$48,984,150 	3.21x
43	The Amazing Spider-Man 2		$202,853,933 	5/2/2014	$65,542,400 	3.10x
44	Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014)	$191,204,754 	8/8/2014	$65,542,400 	2.92x
45	Thor: The Dark World			$206,362,140 	11/8/2013	$72,374,829 	2.85x
46	Fantastic Four (2005)			$154,696,080 	7/8/2005	$54,579,849 	2.83x
47	Dick Tracy				$103,738,726 	6/15/1990	$36,642,628 	2.83x
48	Thor					$181,030,624 	5/6/2011	$66,489,281 	2.72x
49	Captain America: The First Avenger	$176,654,505 	7/22/2011	$66,489,281 	2.66x
50	Fantastic Four: Rise of the Sil. Surfer	$131,921,738 	6/15/2007	$49,880,317 	2.64x

Each film is compared to the average gross of all wide release films (released in at least 600 venues) during the year of its release. I had to estimate 2017's wide release average, so this year's films could move up or down a bit.

This removes complications arising from differences in distribution between era.

This seems right based on my anecdotal experience. The Dark Knight was a phenomenon in the states.

 

[Shredderi]

This seems right based on my anecdotal experience. The Dark Knight was a phenomenon in the states.

There was so much hype for it here in Finland too at the time. I really liked it. I didn't enjoy WW but hopefully I'll enjoy Justice League.

 

[Ninjimbo]

And people said the marketing for this movie was bad lol

 

[Stallion Dan]

The superhero market has been built for it with Marvel movies, the previous records had no market to launch into. I'd expect more debut movies to do well.

 

[Principate]

The superhero market has been built for it with Marvel movies, the previous records had no market to launch into. I'd expect more debut movies to do well.

I mean that record stood for 15 years. It clearly not an easy record to break, Superhero films now being very popular or not.

 

[DeathyBoy]

This thread is a joy to read now.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1378098&highlight=wonder+woman+box

All that crow.

"240 million WW."

Poster deserved a banning for that

 

[jon bones]

wow and thats just for this movie!

when Captain Marvel hits its gonna do like a billy

 

[WillyFive]

Best depiction of a DC superhero since Christopher Reeve. Completely deserves it.

Garbage film, bvs was more entertaining. So cliche and unoriginal no idea why people think its good

Probably because you actually thought BVS was entertaining. You will be completely lost as to why people think movies are good.

 

[Chamber]

when Captain Marvel hits its gonna do like a billy

...and BoxOffice-GAF says I have crazy opinions.

 

[Sgt. Kabukiman]

wow and thats just for this movie!

when Captain Marvel hits its gonna do like a billy

Nah. But at least $500M is garanteed. Probably 600+ if the movie if decent enough.

 

[Mighty Chin]

It was an inoffensive movie. I'll give it a rewatch on digital when it's released. Overall there wasn't anything truly great about the movie.

I'm glad the ladies are getting a chance.

It's definitely the DCCU best movie so far.

 

[MisterHero]

The superhero market has been built for it with Marvel movies, the previous records had no market to launch into. I'd expect more debut movies to do well.

That's silly. Wonder Woman has unheard of demographic appeal among women, an audience she herself helped establish so long ago with the TV show. Which Marvel movie prepared us for a major female-led film?

She was also one of the best parts of BvS, which is commonly argued as being like the rock bottom of of potential for a movie featuring Supes and Bats. Despite the movie's arguable failures , it did not slow Wondy down at all.

Now WW2 has the unenviable task of needing a critically successful sequel, just like Spider-Man 2. Here's hoping!

 

[EGM1966]

It spun out of an adjusted for inflation conversation about Star Wars

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=230690703&postcount=277

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=230704561&postcount=288

That's good metric. I dislike streaight adjusted comparison but if you want to make any comparison you need some form of adjustment vs the straight comparison in OP which just doesn't work. It really annoys me when staight currency comparions are made to judge a film made more money or was more successful as it just doesn't hold up so I like the approach you're taking to try and find a metric that can be calculated to give a fairer, more apples to apples comparison vs release date.

That said I'm curious on your thoughts on Superman in the list (1978 IIRC) - that seems a lower than I'd expect and the year puts it pretty far from today vs most of other films on the list of CBMs. Do you think it's being penalized more than others in the list?

Are you considering whether some years have higher percentage of popular films vs others too: that could skew the multiplier as well no?

 

[funkystudent]

I am still shook this movie turned out as well and as successful as it did.


Really didnt think people cared about that much about WW and didnt think WB could have such a turn around quality wise from the Snyder movies.

 

[Poodlestrike]

Best depiction of a DC superhero since Christopher Reeve. Completely deserves it.



Probably because you actually thought BVS was entertaining. You will be completely lost as to why people think movies are good.

I really liked BvS and I adored WW :/

 

[Ninjimbo]

BvS is the greater film but WW is completely fine. It's slightly better than Iron Man but lower than Batman Begins and MoS for me as far as origin films go.

 

[jon bones]

...and BoxOffice-GAF says I have crazy opinions.

Nah. But at least $500M is garanteed. Probably 600+ if the movie if decent enough.

yeah im just kidding - a billy is quite hard to hit

at least it'll be good for all 3 acts though

 

[ReiGun]

This thread is a joy to read now.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1378098&highlight=wonder+woman+box

Going through old Wonder Woman threads is always a treat. To quote Persona 5, we never saw this coming.

The delusion here is strong

Slightly over 400 million worldwide at the most

 

[BronsonLee]

This thread is a joy to read now.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1378098&highlight=wonder+woman+box

Wow damn I'm killin' it

103m OW
405m Domestic
820m WW

 

[Principate]

yeah im just kidding - a billy is quite hard to hit

at least it'll be good for all 3 acts though

Marvel movies in general have notoriously bad third acts so I'm not even sure what your on about.

 

[grosvenor_92]

It is a really good movie so it's well deserved

 

[Unspeakable Evil]

People said the marketing was bad
They said she wasn't well known or popular
They said Gal would be terrible
And yet here we are

 

[Gentleman Jack]

Wow damn I'm killin' it

We always knew you couldn't be trusted, and now we learn you use Light Theme...

 

[Principate]

We always knew you couldn't be trusted, and now we learn you use Light Theme...

Excuse him for not using the 90's basement cave theme.

 

[BronsonLee]

I am Dark Theme thru and thru!

 

[poppabk]

Nice. Wonder Woman is easily the box office story of the year. It did way better then I expected too.



The films actually did great business because of excellent WOM, not sorely because of Wonder Woman, but because it was also a well-made film. Not saying Wonder Woman isn't popular, but it opened with 103m remember.

Get out released in 2016?

 

[DeathyBoy]

Nah. But at least $500M is garanteed. Probably 600+ if the movie if decent enough.

Which is really good box office for a new MCU film.

 

[kswiston]

$404M domestic and $800M worldwide has been officially confirmed btw

 

[TheTylerDurden]

$404M domestic and $800M worldwide has been officially confirmed btw

woohoo!!

 

[JeTmAn81]

What's the earliest someone on here predicted this outgrossing Batman v. Superman

 

[Chamber]

$404M domestic and $800M worldwide has been officially confirmed btw

What's the earliest someone on here predicted this outgrossing Batman v. Superman

I think we had one person predict $400m before the movie actually came out. Props to that guy.

 

[Sgt. Kabukiman]

Which is really good box office for a new MCU film.

Oh definitely, I wasn't implying otherwise.

 

[Astral Dog]

Fuck Spiders 🕷 go Gal!

 

[mugurumakensei]

I think we had one person predict $400m before the movie actually came out. Props to that guy.

I think that guy was joking/troll estimating cause he predicted 999.99 million so it would annoy gaf with its not quite a billion number. He still got domestic right, and, in comparison with other predictions, it'll end a lot closer to 1 bill then 250-400 mil worldwide.

As far as where it ends up at the end of its run worldwide.

If it does avg Superhero returns in Japan, it'll end up in the 825-830 mill range worldwide when it's all said and done. If it does really well, it could end up in the range of 840-860 mil.

 

[Bleepey]

I am not sure what figure I gave but I am pretty sure I said Suicide Squad would be its floor with good reviews.

 

[Syriel]

I am not sure what figure I gave but I am pretty sure I said Suicide Squad would be its floor with good reviews.

Couldn't you say that about almost any movie as far as reviews are concerned?

Talk about playing it safe.

 

[Crankshaft]

I hope the next movie doesn't get messed up from this success. I can see some suit thinking that because this movie did well that the next one should be a cg storm with a crazy budget. Blue sky beams for all!

 

[PhantomX1313]

Ok I'm predicting 2 billion for Justice League send me to jail

 

[border]

I mean that record stood for 15 years. It clearly not an easy record to break, Superhero films now being very popular or not.

Deadpool came in 40M behind Wonder Woman, despite being rated R and releasing outside of the summer movie season.

I can't speculate on how long the record will hold, but I think it'll be much shorter than 15 years.

 

[Principate]

Deadpool came in 40M behind Wonder Woman, despite being rated R and releasing outside of the summer movie season.

I can't speculate on how long the record will hold, but I think it'll be much shorter than 15 years.

In those 15 years looking at the Op there's been a grand total of two films that have come anywhere close which is being extremely generous. Inflation and premium tickets will and have had an effect. But there's hardly been a laundry list of superhero films knocking at that door unless you count team first outings.

 

[Falchion]

Very well deserved, can't wait until the Blu Ray comes out.

 

[DeathyBoy]

I think that guy was joking/troll estimating cause he predicted 999.99 million so it would annoy gaf with its not quite a billion number. He still got domestic right, and, in comparison with other predictions, it'll end a lot closer to 1 bill then 250-400 mil worldwide.

As far as where it ends up at the end of its run worldwide.

If it does avg Superhero returns in Japan, it'll end up in the 825-830 mill range worldwide when it's all said and done. If it does really well, it could end up in the range of 840-860 mil.

I was joking worldwide, not domestic.

 

[border]

Will Wonder Woman 2 be able to top this? It seems unlikely to me. WW seems like it hit at the right time, and the World War 1 period gave it cross generational appeal. I cannot imagine that a theoretical modern-day sequel would fare as well.

 

[Principate]

Will Wonder Woman 2 be able to top this? It seems unlikely to me. WW seems like it hit at the right time, and the World War 1 period gave it cross generational appeal. I cannot imagine that a theoretical modern-day sequel would fare as well.

WW2 seems to be going full blown 'MERICA being set in the US and the cold war. I imagine if the marketing is on point and it's well recieved it may. Though it'll be very difficult.

 

[DeathyBoy]

WW2 seems to be going full blown 'MERICA being set in the US and the cold war. I imagine if the marketing is on point and it's well recieved it may. Though it'll be very difficult.

It'll be a GOTG 2 style increase at best. Maybe

 

[kswiston]

It'll be a GOTG 2 style increase at best. Maybe

It's hard to say, since Wonder Woman 2 is coming out in December, but GotG2 had a lot more room for upward movement. I think it will be a Catching Fire increase at best, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight drop, ala Iron Man 2 or Spider-Man 2.

Other than TDK and the Avengers, all of these superhero films have been capping out in the low-mid 400s.

 

[Akiraptor]

Okay, but great films don't often equal great box office success. That message isn't going to get across because historically it's untrue.

The Box-Office is like Unforgiven: Deserve's got nothin' to do with it.

What are some blockbuster-type films that haven't done well in recent years despite near universal praise?

 

[DeathyBoy]

It's hard to say, since Wonder Woman 2 is coming out in December, but GotG2 had a lot more room for upward movement. I think it will be a Catching Fire increase at best, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight drop, ala Iron Man 2 or Spider-Man 2.

Other than TDK and the Avengers, all of these superhero films have been capping out in the low-mid 400s.

Aye. WW legs were amazing, but I thought GOTG 2 was a shoe in for a billion...

 

[kswiston]

What are some blockbuster-type films that haven't done well in recent years despite near universal praise?

I think you need some caveats. I can't think of many films with near universal praise that King Arthured, but plenty of underperformed relative to their budget.

The Edge of Tomorrow and Mad Max Fury Road for instance.

Aye. WW legs were amazing, but I thought GOTG 2 was a shoe in for a billion...

I was only referring to the domestic market. Wonder Woman's overseas take wasn't so remarkable that a sequel couldn't add another $100M to it, given the right circumstances.