• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

NPD Sales Results for March 2014 [Up4: FFX/X-2 HD]

MS just needs to announce:

Lost Odyssey 2
Brute Force 2
Sudeki 2
Exclusive COD: GMBW DLC
Halo 5
Gears 4
Sunset Overdrive
Forza Horizon
Ryse 2
Dead Rising 4
Kinect dropped
$379

And they'll win.
 

Dire

Member
Where are you getting that from? March NPD is much higher than February, and the PS4 sold 1M+ units in around 35 days, from March 3rd to April 6th. Throw in the fact that much of Europe is still dry as a desert in regards to PS4 supply, and that even in the US stores aren't swimming in PS4 consoles. What are you talking about?

Flat lining from February would be 358k for the PS4. 5 vs 4 week tracking period.

Widely available in US.
Widely available in UK.

The numbers that matter aren't how something does early in a particular region but how it does once the initial surge is met. Look at it this way - let's say only 10% of last gen players are interested in next gen. That's still easily 10million+ people. I don't think this gen is doing an effective job creating a compelling proposition for players aside from the allure of new tech. The Wii U, for comparison, did not offer even that allure as it was seen as effectively running last gen hardware so their initial boom period was far more modest.

For my personal opinion as opposed to just data analysis - I think deciding to turn an online only first person shooter (let alone one with mediocre graphics and an unstable framerate) into this gens first The Next Big Thing may have been very damaging for the entire console industry - including Sony. There is already a widespread perception that this gen is basically last gen but with incrementally better graphics. Titanfall in many ways drove that message home. If the shooter burnout you see many expressing was just a vocal minority then it wouldn't have been much of a problem and Titanfall actually could have paid off big as Microsoft clearly was expecting, or at least hoping for. The lack of any console movement whatsoever from Titanfall seems to suggest it's not just a vocal minority and Microsoft just did a great job of labeling this gen as Shooter Gen 2.0.
 
I don't care about sales parity.
I care about profitable ecosystems that are segmemted, targetable, offers differentiation, and monetizable. That way lots of different content can be developed and tested in given segments for success.
Your goals are eminently reasonable, I'm simply not sure you've convincingly demonstrated exactly how "one console sells much better" wrecks those goals. For example:

If a console sells 50MM and another 30mm, and I can release a shooter on one and a platformer on the other and both make money, how is that not great for everyone? I can diversify and spread my risk, and consumers get more genres targeted to their interest because its easier for Me to find You.
In the bolded parts, who is "I"? If a developer, don't the vast majority of them actively work on only one title at time (with others in concept or prepro stages)? If games are developed sequentially, there's no diversification possible.

If on the other hand you mean a publisher, then diversification only requires multiple machines if the market is rigidly segmented--that is, one console is the "shooter box", one the "kiddy box", etc. But why should we expect, or desire, that different audiences stick to disparate hardware? If one machine outdoes all its rivals by selling to male shooter fans and families and aging retro fans, etc. then why can't the diversity of games flourish there too? Here's what I mean:

If you had one box and it was 80mm, my shooter has to compete against s million shooters.
Sure, but how is that improved by having a segmented "shooter box" with a 50m installed base? Everyone making a shooter will target that machine, so how are you facing less competition than the 80m console with 50m shooter fans on it?
 
It's over, period. Microsoft lost their last ace, and that's the end of their Xbox One hopes and dreams.

It's not hyperbole, it's not fanboy drivel. It is LITERALLY it for Xbox One. Microsoft has nothing left, nothing they can reveal tomorrow would fix the hole now created. There is no reason left for any one, hardcore or casual, to substantively invest in a Xbox One. Except if they want to play Titanfall. Which will also come to PS4 at some point.

Sony took the last reason away that anyone would NEED to own a Xbox One over a PS4 (except TV SPORTS KINECT LOL GAMING), and the cavalcade of tiny titles that will be nice but won't stir up any sales is not going to salvage the bloated, overdesigned behemoth that was Xbox One.

There may be some hardcore gamer's that stick around. Some did it for Gamecube. But the last bell tolled. Maybe next decade.

The age of Microsoft is done.

8.9/9

8 is great 9 is amazing.
 

BigDug13

Member
They were already reacting by E3, it was basically a show of software, I think you are confused with the earlier reveal. Since the 360 was a very succesful console to be outselling it by 60% whilst being so much more expensive is pretty good in my book. The PS4 is just amazing to be outstripping the Wii at the same point.

Best news though is that console gaming is far from finished, the dire Wii U sales sort of added to the theory that console gaming was in trouble but we now know it was nobody wanted a Wii U. Stick a fork in Vita though it's done.

The 360 was extremely supply constrained early. So you can't simply say "oh look, the XBO is selling so much better than the 360 was at this point in its life" and use it as a meaningful statistic.

If 360's were sitting on pallets in stores during that same period in its life like the XBO currently is, and the XBO still sold better, you'd have a point.
 

AniHawk

Member
Those WiiU and Vita numbers...yikes. What's the bare minimum in monthly sales before we can consider a device "dead"? 10k? 50k? Does it not matter as long as it's selling something?

here are 2013 sales for each system:

ps vita: ~440k
wii u: ~1210k

right now wii u is tracking fairly close to 2013's numbers. it's probably safe to say it will at least cling to those or surpass them considering the software lineup is a little bit more appealing. 2014 will probably be its peak year. the wii u's 2013 most closely resembles something between the dreamcast's 2000 and 2001 (1.3m on the high end and 1.15m on the low end).

however the vita just sold a third of what it did last march. sony is going to be supporting it with the new model/bundle, and there are still games coming out for it, so maybe sales will stick around the 300k-400k levels. 2012 was probably its peak year. the closest sales i can find in a year to the vita's 2013 would be the sega genesis in 1997 (475k).

so the wii u isn't really dead. it should start declining (and rather rapidly i would guess) starting in 2015. vita is already on its decline. even if something reverses the trend to last year's levels, i think it will be dead at the start of 2015.
 

iamvin22

Industry Verified
8.9/9

8 is great 9 is amazing.

S5vX8cX.gif
 

ethomaz

Banned
Good morning guys.

Now we can finally stop the talk about NS winning NPD until maybe a new Halo release? Fact is that only Xbox fans want to buy a Xbone and everybody else wants a PS4.

BTW after the "biggest" release of the year for the console the gap in sales will increase... next months will be hard to Xbone sustains sales while PS4 will continue it pace at ~1m per month.
 
For my personal opinion as opposed to just data analysis - I think deciding to turn an online only first person shooter (let alone one with mediocre graphics and an unstable framerate) into this gens first The Next Big Thing may have been very damaging for the entire console industry - including Sony. There is already a widespread perception that this gen is basically last gen but with incrementally better graphics. Titanfall in many ways drove that message home. If the shooter burnout you see many expressing was just a vocal minority then it wouldn't have been much of a problem and Titanfall actually could have paid off big as Microsoft clearly was expecting, or at least hoping for. The lack of any console movement whatsoever from Titanfall seems to suggest it's not just a vocal minority and Microsoft just did a great job of labeling this gen as Shooter Gen 2.0.

Last gens first next big thing was oblivion. The worst TES game + horse armour etc

It wasn't till gears, modern warfare and ass creed triple header in late 2007 that shit took off
 
So from my brief combing.

Amirox is a legend
MS is in a pickle
Vita reached a new low in the US
Gifs are still alive and kicking

This is awesome!

But seriously Vita, get your shit together over here :/ never going to happen, I know, but man can dream.
Seriously guys - out of stock due to imminent version refresh.

Guys?
 
here are 2013 sales for each system:

ps vita: ~440k
wii u: ~1210k

right now wii u is tracking fairly close to 2013's numbers. it's probably safe to say it will at least cling to those or surpass them considering the software lineup is a little bit more appealing. 2014 will probably be its peak year. the wii u's 2013 most closely resembles something between the dreamcast's 2000 and 2001 (1.3m on the high end and 1.15m on the low end).

however the vita just sold a third of what it did last march. sony is going to be supporting it with the new model/bundle, and there are still games coming out for it, so maybe sales will stick around the 300k-400k levels. 2012 was probably its peak year. the closest sales i can find in a year to the vita's 2013 would be the sega genesis in 1997 (475k).

so the wii u isn't really dead. it should start declining (and rather rapidly i would guess) starting in 2015. vita is already on its decline. even if something reverses the trend to last year's levels, i think it will be dead at the start of 2015.

well theres other factors. ww they are probably sellng similar numbers with the vita doing decent japan and the wiiu doing terribly in japan and eu
 

burnfout

Member
Anecdotal evidence from the Netherlands.

PS4 is still very hard to find, a collegae waited 6 weeks for his PS4 order at one of the biggest retail stores here, only just getting his PS4 last week.


The Tier 2 countries are LOST for MS. All my 360 friends have abandonded MS. Releasing in these countries will have an negible boost of sales.
 
So you're saying we won't see real next gen games until late 2015 or so?

Maybe not. Most big stuff is crossgen or sequels to current gen hits. The Order, The Division and Quantum Break are the ones that stand out most to me but not sure any of those ha breakout potential/
 

Zalman

Member
Anecdotal evidence from the Netherlands.

PS4 is still very hard to find, a collegae waited 6 weeks for his PS4 order at one of the biggest retail stores here, only just getting his PS4 last week.


The Tier 2 countries are LOST for MS. All my 360 friends have abandonded MS. Releasing in these countries will have an negible boost of sales.
Same here. They are dead on arrival in the rest of Europe. They don't even have US and UK with them anymore. They need to do something unless they want to end up far behind Sony again.
 

AniHawk

Member
well theres other factors. ww they are probably sellng similar numbers with the vita doing decent japan and the wiiu doing terribly in japan and eu

right. worldwide is a different beast. ytd, vita in japan outsells the wii u in the us and japan alone (ltd the vita leads by about 600k). europe is guesswork, but it's probably close with the edge given to the vita. the wii u definitely has more blockbusters headed its way, and it will have bigger months at least in the us than the vita, and more of them throughout the year.
 

kinoki

Illness is the doctor to whom we pay most heed; to kindness, to knowledge, we make promise only; pain we obey.
MS just needs to announce:

Lost Odyssey 2
Brute Force 2
Sudeki 2
Exclusive COD: GMBW DLC
Halo 5
Gears 4
Sunset Overdrive
Forza Horizon
Ryse 2
Dead Rising 4
Kinect dropped
$379

And they'll win.

One new IP from a 2nd party studio and the rest sequels. Yes, that's how you win.
 

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
Wow at vita

I guess people heard about the new model. It'll probably pick up again. I think the oled "problems" might be scaring people off into waiting for a LCD.

It'll sell way more when it hits a redesign and a price drop, psp was bad too until that happened.
 

mjAUT

Member
Anecdotal evidence from the Netherlands.

PS4 is still very hard to find, a collegae waited 6 weeks for his PS4 order at one of the biggest retail stores here, only just getting his PS4 last week.


The Tier 2 countries are LOST for MS. All my 360 friends have abandonded MS. Releasing in these countries will have an negible boost of sales.

It's the same here in Austria, a coworker received the PS4 he ordered in October just 3 weeks ago. UK seems to be the only European country where you can actually find a PS4 easily.

However, there are huge stacks of Xbones collecting dust at every major retailer.

Edit: Just look at the shipping estimates for European stores.
 
Since the 360 was a very succesful console to be outselling it by 60% whilst being so much more expensive is pretty good in my book.
The 360 was heavily supply constrained during launch (due to RROD problems), so it's not the best comparison. Even still, the Xbox One has already had a month--January--where it sold less than the 360 did in its equivalent month. I predict that it will have another one in April, and more still as the year goes on and the 360 supply gets a little loosened. (That is, unless Microsoft drop the price.)
 

ethomaz

Banned
360, January - March 2013: 844K

Compare to Xbox One:

XB1, January - March 2014: 710K
Thanks.

Well Xbox One had a really great launch with Nov + Dec but after that the sales are really low and bad for the MS side.

2013 was the year that 360 dropped close to 40% in shipment and sales overall... and Xbone is doing worst that a near dead console and the situation on the "tiers countries" didn't help too.

I think we will see terrible sales (Wii U level) to Xbone this year.

The real battle will be Xbox zone vs Wii U.
 

A_Gorilla

Banned
Anecdotal evidence from the Netherlands.

PS4 is still very hard to find, a collegae waited 6 weeks for his PS4 order at one of the biggest retail stores here, only just getting his PS4 last week.


The Tier 2 countries are LOST for MS. All my 360 friends have abandonded MS. Releasing in these countries will have an negible boost of sales.

So be it..someone get the chalkboard.
 
Top Bottom