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[Termite]

It should do 5-6m easily.

This is Nintendo's big hardcore game this holiday, and they will push it. I think people don't realize that the social media effect of hardcore influencers hyping games is super effective at pushing games. Metroid Prime 1 sold 3m on a 22m install base without the assist of social media or Nintendo's excellent modern marketing. On an install base of 90m+, with good marketing, a lack of competition, brand recognition from Smash Bros, and the social media push? If anything I feel like 6m might be conservative.

It does frustrate me that people don't seem to take into account how much more series are selling on Switch when they judge how good a game's sales performance is. Like, if your niche series just barely had its best selling game on switch then it underperformed. Most series are shattering records.

 

[skit_data]

8 million.

Metroids time has come. It shall no longer stand in the shadows of Nintendos other franchises. Samus time is here.

 

[carlosrox]

Yup my vote is 5 million. Seems to be the majority vote as well.

Highest selling game in Prime was 2.98 mil or something like that?

I expect Dread to easily match and exceed that which is why I'm guessing 5 million. Could also see it being at 4 or 6.

I think there's a fair bit of hype surrounding it, Switch games can sell really well, the Metroid name has gotten a little more recognizable in recent years thanks to "Metroidvanias", and this is basically Nintendo's big game this year aside from Pokemon which sort of doesn't count to begin with as that's not developed by Nintendo the same way Dread is. Yes it's co developed but Sakamoto is front and center on this one.

 

[Topher]

Ugh......I voted 2 million based mainly on what the series had sold in the past. I didn't realize the numbers I was looking at came from vgchartz. Changed my vote to 5 million.

 

[carlosrox]

If if reviews well/has good word of mouth I can see it selling even better than expected.

 

[Synless]

I’m going with 6 mil. This is Metroid‘a year for once.

 

[Marty-McFly]

If it sells anywhere close to 5 million, you'll be seeing a lot of Metroid in the future and who knows what other resurrected IP's.

Switch killing it and Metroid as their big OLED release.

Best possible timeline.

 

[Bonfires Down]

It's Nintendo's big title this fall and the Switch tends to amplify software sales by, like, a lot. 8 million.

 

[Woopah]

I see 2D Metroid as being on a similar level to Fire Emblem. 3 million would be a great success.

 

[Dream-Knife]

The best Metroid has ever sold was 3 million (Prime 1).

I'm looking at 4-10 million lifetime sales which is massive for the 2D franchise.

I think Prime 4 can do over 10 million

Currently Dread is more preordered than Pokemon or Mario Party at Gamestop

No.	Game
1.	Metroid Dread
2.	Pokemon Brilliant Diamond/Shining Pearl Double Pack
3.	Mario Party Superstars
4.	Pokemon Legends: Arceus
5.	Shin Megami Tensei 5
6.	Pokemon Brilliant Diamond
7.	WarioWare: Get it Together!
8.	Doki Doki Literature Club Plus
9.	Sonic Colors: Ultimate
10.	Advance Wars 1+2: Re-Boot Camp

Only enthusiasts pre-order games. We can't really see where it'll be by that info.

I think it will sell 6-7 million though. It'll be Nintendo's big holiday title.

 

[Dr Bass]

At least 1 ... to me.

 

[ParaSeoul]

i like how samus returns didnt even manage to sell 1 million but thats where you chose to start from.

 

[Marty-McFly]

I see 2D Metroid as being on a similar level to Fire Emblem. 3 million would be a great success.

This is a good point. If anything I'd say Fire Emblem is a way bigger IP than 2D Metroid and its sales are around 3 million.

Metroid seems to be getting a bigger marketing push though so we shall see.

 

[MatrixReloaded101]

This game seems low budget for a Metroid game and it does not have much marketing behind it. I think it might still be a great game but it will probably sell 2 million copies at most which is still a great number.

 

[Marty-McFly]

This game seems low budget for a Metroid game and it does not have much marketing behind it. I think it might still be a great game but it will probably sell 2 million copies at most which is still a great number.

It's launching day and date with the OLED, is featured in ads with it, and is being bundled with it in a special edition. Plus we've had multiple well done trailers already, not to mention there is still more marketing to come.

I disagree with the low budget part of your post as well other than the the fact that it's a sidescroller, which do tend to skew a little cheaper, but if we compare it to a recent games like 2D Mario and Zelda, it's a graphical and cinematic tour de force.

 

[Cutty Flam]

i like how samus returns didnt even manage to sell 1 million but thats where you chose to start from.

What? You actually think the game will sell less than a million?

 

[Impotaku]

less than a million as metroid sells like shit

 

[Hestar69]

3 million. Price tag and the 2d will turn alot of people off. I'll pick it up when its 40 the price it should be honestly.

 

[SoggyBiscuit]

Shameless posters choosing 33-35m, you should have a good long look at yourselves.

Hard to call sales on this one. I just don't see Metroid as a huge selling franchise for Nintendo given the series history. Would love to see it sell 5m though. Hopefully it can break 2m

 

[Marty-McFly]

3 million. Price tag and the 2d will turn alot of people off. I'll pick it up when its 40 the price it should be honestly.

I don't get why the price tag and 2d is an issue when you have full priced 2D Mario's (some from Wii U) and Zelda's on Switch and this game absolutely buries them in terms of visual fidelity.

Metroid is not as popular as those franchises and won't sell as well because of that, but the 2D full price thing is not a barrier to Switch gamers.

 

[Kokoloko85]

5-10m

 

[fart town usa]

I went with 2 million.

It'd be nice to see Metroid sell 10+ but it's never been there in comparison to Zelda, Mario, etc.

 

[Darlingcognito]

It's going over 10 million.

 

[Little Chicken]

It'll get a huge Christmas push so I say 4 million and I'd be surprised by anything exceeding that.

 

[The Skull]

3-5 millions based off Switch install base and software drought. Hoping it cracks 10 mil though.

 

[Hestar69]

I don't get why the price tag and 2d is an issue when you have full priced 2D Mario's (some from Wii U) and Zelda's on Switch and this game absolutely buries them in terms of visual fidelity.

Metroid is not as popular as those franchises and won't sell as well because of that, but the 2D full price thing is not a barrier to Switch gamers.

Mario is the most popular game/character ever people, will pay 60 for those. 60 for a 20ish hr 2d game, I don't think people will pay that.If it was prime, I think it would sell better whenever 4 comes out.

I'm not hating on the game btw it looks amazing and I love super metroid.

 

[belmarduk]

The small but devoted Metroid following will buy the game. The rest depends on reviews and word of mouth. I don't see it selling more than 2 million.

 

[Oddvintagechap]

787,001

 

[PC Gamer]

≤20⁶.

 

[00_Zer0]

3 million at the least but I hope it goes above that.

 

[carlosrox]

I guess you can say you never know but I would be pretty shocked if this game did only 2 or 3 million and am surprised people expect sales that low.

As people have mentioned there's a number of reasons this game should be at least the best selling game in the series which already puts it at 3 million.

Considering it keeps charting high where pre-orders are taken wouldn't the game already have sold a million or more? I've heard it topping several charts and hanging there since pretty much the announcement. That's got to be a decent number of people.

I think if it reviews well that'll go a long way in building up hype for a lot of people, so fingers crossed it reviews well!

 

[Astral Dog]

I think it should do at least >2million,that will place it on the top Metroid league along Prime1 and Metroid 1,but its possible it manages to sell >3 million with the hype it has now and being one of Switch's biggest releases for this year.

Anything above that and its a massive success, so discuting numbers gets boring

 

[RoyalLaFlame]

I hope enough so Nintendo starts treating this franchise with the respect it deserves. You know, do something else besides Mario and Zelda.

 

[Cutty Flam]

The cover might help Metroid Dread sell. It’s simple, but an eye catcher. Interesting title too, this is the most hardcore title Nintendo has probably put out. Can’t ever recall anything more extreme than “Dread” being in a game made by Nintendo

 

[bender]

tree fiddy

 

[Shaqazooloo]

I don't think Samus Returns crossed the million line either.

The Luigi's Mansion remake on 3DS also didn't sell a million units, what's your point?

 

[mrabott]

Spartan, you ask me how much and I say if it's close or not.

 

[Bragr]

In 2021, around 2-3 million, long-term, maybe 4.

 

[TLZ]

And you’re probably right but 1st party titles are all around 40 million. Hard to predict how this is going to sell.

Wha? I like your wild imagination. Thankfully though we have facts from Nintendo.

IR Information : Sales Data - Top Selling Title Sales Units

www.nintendo.co.jp

 

[Cutty Flam]

Only 17 out of 158 voters are in realistic territory

 

[TGO]

35 million and they'll all belong to Marty-McFly

 

[MrA]

35 million and they'll all belong to Marty-McFly

what they need to do is hire a guy with some masking tape, tape over the word metroid and write
Animal Crossing: totes new edition on every copy
and they can sell all 35 million copies to more than 1 person

 

[Shaqazooloo]

Nintendo is really going in on Metroid Dread advertising, theirs no way it sells less than 3 million imo.

 

[Cutty Flam]

US, Europe, Japan commericals for Metroid Dread

 

[carlosrox]

US, Europe, Japan commericals for Metroid Dread

lol that second commercial. It's always funny when Switch commercials try to push the fear angle. Reminds me of some of the RE and Little Nightmares commercials. I enjoy them.

 

[Cutty Flam]

lol that second commercial. It's always funny when Switch commercials try to push the fear angle. Reminds me of some of the RE and Little Nightmares commercials. I enjoy them.

The European commercial was an interesting take but I have no idea why they went with what they did. It was the most underwhelming of the three commercials

 

[Azelover]

If I had any say it would sell more than 10 million.

But it's probably gonna do about 2 million, and that's being optimistic.

 

[Gamer79]

I voted 35 million just to troll

 

[Markio128]

This game does not scream big seller to me and that game cover is awful, in my opinion.

 

[BlackTron]

I think it'll break 6mil over the long game.