They have had big guns on this the entire time. I don't think it makes a material difference. I think the CMA has had ample opportunity to change their views on the Cloud SLC to view it as an extension of the normal console games SLC, and specifically chose to evaluate it as its own market. The only way, even if CAT does grant the appeal, is if they do and the CMA upends this viewpoint. In fact, the EC's findings largely agree with the CMA's findings, outside of Cloud gaming being its own market.
This difference in perspective is what allowed the EC to rubber stamp it; EC does not feel Cloud gaming can or is its own market. The fact that the CMA doubled down nearly immediately after the EC finding tells me that their view on this won't change. So even if CAT grants the appeal, the CMA is just going to reassess, and then, its another block, unless MS finds some magical way to convince the CMA that the Cloud market is not its own market.
So like I said, < 5%. I have yet to see a reason presented as to why Cloud should be considered a distribution extension and not its own market, as presented by MS. They've had at least 6 months to do just that. The current narrative that loads of MS fans and a few folks at MS seem to have latched on to is that MS' marketshare in cloud is overstated and that the CMA came down to the wrong conclusion based on that, but it sounds like, based on what the CMA most recently said, that even if MS wasn't the marketshare leader in cloud, they'd still have a large issue with MS basically having leverage on everything needed in the supply chain for Cloud gaming, including content. I don't see how MS presents an argument that gets around that. They promise to keep all of ATVI's games on AWS? They start using AWS servers for xCloud? I'm not sure if MS is going to agree to drastically increase their own costs when their entire gaming division has largely been operating as a tremendous loss leader for quite some time now.