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[gametimedecision]

Even if they got the date they wanted it still would be past the deadline to close before this would be fully resolved,right? They were gonna have to extend or not regardless.

 

[Elios83]

MS clearly wanted the CAT review to happen before the expiration of the current Merger Agreement and didn't get it.

While I agree that Microsoft was hoping for some miracle (helped by some political pressure and lobbying) that reversed the CMA's decision before the July 18th deadline, it was impossible to get a normal verdict from CAT in that timeframe.

Indeed I think there was some confusion in the previous posts about the July thing.
At some point it seemed like that was the date for getting the verdict.
It wasn't. It's the date the trial starts, the trial itself won't last long (2 weeks max) but then the judge will take a few months to make a verdict.

So effectively unless the trial started in June and Microsoft asked for a verdict in one month this was not possible.

 

[PaintTinJr]

I watched the whole thing - except I skipped past the end of ATVI's intervener stuff, which was like a regurgitation of the worst arguments from this thread - and came away with the view that Microsoft have a reasonable chance(maybe better than 40%) based on the latitude the judge gave them to set the stage for their time-line and "backfilling evidence".

The relationships between the judge and the merging counsels was far friendlier, respectful and familiar IMO than it was with the CMA counsel, even though the CMA did have him make some strong points in their favour, namely, he said if the economic analyst(female Florian type) that Microsoft wanted to include if gave contradictory opinion to the CMA's economist, but was within margins of difference of opinion by experts (eg 4/10 pro review of Totk, versus 10/10) the "CMA wins" (was his words) because their expert trumps others in a difference of opinion.

The judge also seemed to be unwilling to let Beard do a backdoor FTC defence in the US by using discovery on the conversations between the CMA and FTC, and has also placed Microsoft in a tight spot with the 10 witness statements and 4 experts they've unconventionally tried to add to the appeal.

He gave them plenty of latitude to make the argument that getting to the final decision for the UK was important and that the FTC position - without an injunction - wasn't grounds to determine if a slow roll on the UK appeal was no derailment, so was keen to push for clarity aspect for the rest of the world by resolving the matter for MSFT (ATVI by extension) in the UK as speedily as possible with a "fair" process. But this opening gambit by Beard then seemed to be grounds by which the CMA was able to point out that the unconventional10 witness statements and 4 experts appeal procedurally derails the time-line itself, and the judge seemed to feel there might be a choice for MSFT to jettison their new evidence or accept a longer time-line realistic to the CMA.

Towards the end of proceedings the judge also seemed to give greater consideration and weight to the CMA's workload and "availability" of counsel - as opposed to reluctance to commit to a speedy time-line - probably remembering that the counsel from the two parties to his right were by a $70B company and a $2T company, where finding capable counsel without commercial conflicts of interest and wanting to work for the CMA on any date was pretty difficult compared to the ease of MSFT finding capable counsel to relay Beard's words - if he was absent -on any date.

From the proceedings I suspect the FTC watching will now being using their slide rule to workout exactly which date they need to file their injunction to maximise the CMA's ability to reference it to the judge - as an issue of fact - when the time-line of the appeal is being finally resolved.

A short timeline for the appeal likely help get ATVI shareholders to agree a free extension for 3months. A longer time-line probably kills the deal via ATVI shareholders IMO.

It was very worrying that after the judge had read the 480page CMA report at the weekend he still couldn;'t see the difference between B2P and Cloud gaming - although he did stipulate his intention for a session to effectively synchronise understanding of terms used - and equally concerning that the (lead chair?) counsel for the CMA wasn't familiar with the substance of the CMA report and was merely there to argue the procedural nature of the appeal.

 

[DeepEnigma]

While I agree that Microsoft was hoping for some miracle (helped by some political pressure and lobbying) that reversed the CMA's decision before the July 18th deadline, it was impossible to get a normal verdict from CAT in that timeframe.

Indeed I think there was some confusion in the previous posts about the July thing.
At some point it seemed like that was the date for getting the verdict.
It wasn't. It's the date the trial starts, the trial itself won't last long (2 weeks max) but then the judge will take a few months to make a verdict.

So effectively unless the trial started in June and Microsoft asked for a verdict in one month this was not possible.

I think they wanted the date prior to the expiration date as persuasion/bargaining chip to the shareholders for renewal.

 

[feynoob]

I'm on the same page. Their COD marketing agreement with Sony is about to end, and they can't sign a new one until this acquisition thing is over either way.

This appeal can extend this deep into 2024, and that's too much time wasted. If the CMA still says no at the end of the 2024, ABK will be in a tough position.

Maybe this is a big move by MS to acquire COD marketing.

 

[nikolino840]

Cma was so ready a month ago

 

[Bernoulli]

Exactly. It's hilarious that some people think that this is a big win for Microsoft.

The comments on Reddit, especially, are just mind-boggling lol.

Worst part is if you dare to say anything else you get downvoted and then banned from the subreddit
Good echo chamber

 

[Dick Jones]

She still really needs that cashola huh?

Probably since she can be cited as one of the reasons the deal fell through. That's a double whammy if MS contest the 3bn pay out and she already lost her payout.

I watched the whole thing - except I skipped past the end of ATVI's intervener stuff, which was like a regurgitation of the worst arguments from this thread - and came away with the view that Microsoft have a reasonable chance(maybe better than 40%) based on the latitude the judge gave them to set the stage for their time-line and "backfilling evidence".

The relationships between the judge and the merging counsels was far friendlier, respectful and familiar IMO than it was with the CMA counsel, even though the CMA did have him make some strong points in their favour, namely, he said if the economic analyst(female Florian type) that Microsoft wanted to include if gave contradictory opinion to the CMA's economist, but was within margins of difference of opinion by experts (eg 4/10 pro review of Totk, versus 10/10) the "CMA wins" (was his words) because their expert trumps others in a difference of opinion.

The judge also seemed to be unwilling to let Beard do a backdoor FTC defence in the US by using discovery on the conversations between the CMA and FTC, and has also placed Microsoft in a tight spot with the 10 witness statements and 4 experts they've unconventionally tried to add to the appeal.

He gave them plenty of latitude to make the argument that getting to the final decision for the UK was important and that the FTC position - without an injunction - wasn't grounds to determine if a slow roll on the UK appeal was no derailment, so was keen to push for clarity aspect for the rest of the world by resolving the matter for MSFT (ATVI by extension) in the UK as speedily as possible with a "fair" process. But this opening gambit by Beard then seemed to be grounds by which the CMA was able to point out that the unconventional10 witness statements and 4 experts appeal procedurally derails the time-line itself, and the judge seemed to feel there might be a choice for MSFT to jettison their new evidence or accept a longer time-line realistic to the CMA.

Towards the end of proceedings the judge also seemed to give greater consideration and weight to the CMA's workload and "availability" of counsel - as opposed to reluctance to commit to a speedy time-line - probably remembering that the counsel from the two parties to his right were by a $70B company and a $2T company, where finding capable counsel without commercial conflicts of interest and wanting to work for the CMA on any date was pretty difficult compared to the ease of MSFT finding capable counsel to relay Beard's words - if he was absent -on any date.

From the proceedings I suspect the FTC watching will now being using their slide rule to workout exactly which date they need to file their injunction to maximise the CMA's ability to reference it to the judge - as an issue of fact - when the time-line of the appeal is being finally resolved.

A short timeline for the appeal likely help get ATVI shareholders to agree a free extension for 3months. A longer time-line probably kills the deal via ATVI shareholders IMO.

It was very worrying that after the judge had read the 480page CMA report at the weekend he still couldn;'t see the difference between B2P and Cloud gaming - although he did stipulate his intention for a session to effectively synchronise understanding of terms used - and equally concerning that the (lead chair?) counsel for the CMA wasn't familiar with the substance of the CMA report and was merely there to argue the procedural nature of the appeal.

Did you actually say ABK will extend for 3 months for FREE? Ah stop.

 

[feynoob]

I watched the whole thing - except I skipped past the end of ATVI's intervener stuff, which was like a regurgitation of the worst arguments from this thread - and came away with the view that Microsoft have a reasonable chance(maybe better than 40%) based on the latitude the judge gave them to set the stage for their time-line and "backfilling evidence".

The relationships between the judge and the merging counsels was far friendlier, respectful and familiar IMO than it was with the CMA counsel, even though the CMA did have him make some strong points in their favour, namely, he said if the economic analyst(female Florian type) that Microsoft wanted to include if gave contradictory opinion to the CMA's economist, but was within margins of difference of opinion by experts (eg 4/10 pro review of Totk, versus 10/10) the "CMA wins" (was his words) because their expert trumps others in a difference of opinion.

The judge also seemed to be unwilling to let Beard do a backdoor FTC defence in the US by using discovery on the conversations between the CMA and FTC, and has also placed Microsoft in a tight spot with the 10 witness statements and 4 experts they've unconventionally tried to add to the appeal.

He gave them plenty of latitude to make the argument that getting to the final decision for the UK was important and that the FTC position - without an injunction - wasn't grounds to determine if a slow roll on the UK appeal was no derailment, so was keen to push for clarity aspect for the rest of the world by resolving the matter for MSFT (ATVI by extension) in the UK as speedily as possible with a "fair" process. But this opening gambit by Beard then seemed to be grounds by which the CMA was able to point out that the unconventional10 witness statements and 4 experts appeal procedurally derails the time-line itself, and the judge seemed to feel there might be a choice for MSFT to jettison their new evidence or accept a longer time-line realistic to the CMA.

Towards the end of proceedings the judge also seemed to give greater consideration and weight to the CMA's workload and "availability" of counsel - as opposed to reluctance to commit to a speedy time-line - probably remembering that the counsel from the two parties to his right were by a $70B company and a $2T company, where finding capable counsel without commercial conflicts of interest and wanting to work for the CMA on any date was pretty difficult compared to the ease of MSFT finding capable counsel to relay Beard's words - if he was absent -on any date.

From the proceedings I suspect the FTC watching will now being using their slide rule to workout exactly which date they need to file their injunction to maximise the CMA's ability to reference it to the judge - as an issue of fact - when the time-line of the appeal is being finally resolved.

A short timeline for the appeal likely help get ATVI shareholders to agree a free extension for 3months. A longer time-line probably kills the deal via ATVI shareholders IMO.

It was very worrying that after the judge had read the 480page CMA report at the weekend he still couldn;'t see the difference between B2P and Cloud gaming - although he did stipulate his intention for a session to effectively synchronise understanding of terms used - and equally concerning that the (lead chair?) counsel for the CMA wasn't familiar with the substance of the CMA report and was merely there to argue the procedural nature of the appeal.

Never ever trust 1-5% chance of winning. They always feel like 99%.
Leicester did the unthinkable of wining the premier league and the cubs winning the world series ending 108 year curse.

Unless it's 100% dead, it's not dead.

 

[feynoob]

Worst part is if you dare to say anything else you get downvoted and then banned from the subreddit
Good echo chamber

Eco champers are hard to argue with.

 

[Bernoulli]

Probably since she can be cited as one of the reasons the deal fell through. That's a double whammy if MS contest the 3bn pay out and she already lost her payout.

That would be hilarious
Please i need this to happen

 

[feynoob]

I don't know who's this
But her boobs are bigger then nicki Minaj butt

Her name is Kerry katona

 

[feynoob]

Diablo is something.
If this deal happens, MS got some series content on gamepass.

 

[Godot25]

I'm big fan of that CMA lawyer. I hope he will be in charge of CMA defence in front of CAT

 

[DeepEnigma]

Diablo is something.
If this deal happens, MS got some series content on gamepass.

Or serious price per share increase if ABK decides to extend/renew/restructure.

 

[feynoob]

Or serious price per share increase if ABK decides to extend/renew/restructure.

Price isn't a problem for MS. Owning them would open a lot of business potential for MS (mobile market and enhances their windows store).

This is if the deal gets approved by CMA!.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Price isn't a problem for MS. Owning them would open a lot of business potential for MS (mobile market and enhances their windows store).

This is if the deal gets approved by CMA!.

That's not the point I was making. They know what the CMA's issues are, so a new contract would have to be made, the same old one with an extension is going to get them nowhere.

 

[Elios83]

I think they wanted the date prior to the expiration date as persuasion/bargaining chip to the shareholders for renewal.

Yes imo they tried to move some political levers in the previous weeks but it didn't work well.
Now they know they can't avoid the re-negotiation of the contract (let alone trying to go ahead with the deal without UK on board like some crazy people suggested) but they also know that if they can't find the way to get this done in just a few extra months there won't be the conditions to extend.

They can't stay locked forever in a limbo and the price to do so would become astronomical.
So the idea is probably to extend just for a few months, but given that the judge states he hopes to have a verdict in the October/November timeframe and then even if (big if) they win the appeal, CMA will be asked to do an other round and they'll decide their own timeframe, chances of this not slipping into 2024 are super low if not zero.

 

[Kilau]

I didn’t watch the thing today but reading twitter I’m thinking the CMA were summarily executed by the judge and MS now wholly owns the UK. This correct?

 

[feynoob]

That's not the point I was making. They know what the CMA's issues are, so a new contract would have to be made, the same old one with an extension is going to get them nowhere.

Actually, they have hit 2 miles store (same and RU approval). This new renogation will only focus on CMA and FTC.

Aside of price increases, there isn't going to be any difficulties.

The only huge hurdle is if they have a chance for CMA and whether that chance is warranted for extension.
If they have that, both will ink a new contract.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Worst part is if you dare to say anything else you get downvoted and then banned from the subreddit
Good echo chamber

I already have been banned there for only pointing out, very respectfully, that one OP had mentioned incorrect CMA data.

I only shared the correct numbers (with 0 commentary) and got banned

 

[DeepEnigma]

I didn’t watch the thing today but reading twitter I’m thinking the CMA were summarily executed by the judge and MS now wholly owns the UK. This correct?

Correct.

 

[Bojanglez]

Would ABK have to put a renegotiation or extension to shareholder vote? If so would they be legally obliged to inform their shareholders of the realistic chances of success?

 

[feynoob]

I already have been banned there for only pointing out, very respectfully, that one OP had mentioned incorrect CMA data.

I only shared the correct numbers (with 0 commentary) and got banned

Why log in to reddit?
It's been a long time since I used my reddit account.
I only surf it as a ghost. I can get more views that way, without wasting time to comment.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Would ABK have to put a renegotiation or extension to shareholder vote? If so would they be legally obliged to inform their shareholders of the realistic chances of success?

Yes and yes.

 

[zapper]

Yes imo they tried to move some political levers in the previous weeks but it didn't work well.
Now they know they can't avoid the re-negotiation of the contract (let alone trying to go ahead with the deal without UK on board like some crazy people suggested) but they also know that if they can't find the way to get this done in just a few extra months there won't be the conditions to extend.

They can't stay locked forever in a limbo and the price to do so would become astronomical.
So the idea is probably to extend just for a few months, but given that the judge states he hopes to have a verdict in the October/November timeframe and then even if (big if) they win the appeal, CMA will be asked to do an other round and they'll decide their own timeframe, chances of this not slipping into 2024 are super low if not zero.

so the cat's decision is still for October/November? at the appeal at the end of July, will the cat only listen to the motivations of both sides?

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

I kinda pity CMA's lawyer. They literally sent him for slaughter. I wonder what CMA's thinking was there?

 

[Bernoulli]

I kinda pity CMA's lawyer. They literally sent him for slaughter. I wonder what CMA's thinking was there?

He was there just to schedule the agenda

 

[DeepEnigma]

I kinda pity CMA's lawyer. They literally sent him for slaughter. I wonder what CMA's thinking was there?

It was only for a date to be scheduled. None of this has any bearing on hearings other than them now knowing what they need to correct on their end.

 

[GHG]

I kinda pity CMA's lawyer. They literally sent him for slaughter. I wonder what CMA's thinking was there?

No decision could have been made today so might as well get all the talking points out in the open. It now gives them the opportunity analyse everything that happened and be thoroughly prepared when it actually matters.

That's if they are playing things correctly. If they plan on sending him up again then... RIP.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

Р

He was there just to schedule the agenda

He could always send Teams Meeting invitation or something. "Microsoft, what time do you prefer?"

 

[Bernoulli]

No decision could have been made today so might as well get all the talking points out in the open. It now gives them the opportunity analyse everything that happened and be thoroughly prepared when it actually matters.

That's if they are playing things correctly. If they plan on sending him up again then... RIP.

Even with these when you reddit twitter and reee they all think it's over and the CMA lost
The lawyer did say he was on this just for 3 days

For the stuttering i think he just has speech problems/impediment not that he doesn't know his stuff

 

[feynoob]

Р
He could always send Teams Meeting invitation or something. "Microsoft, what time do you prefer?"

Teams is shit.

 

[Bernoulli]

Found this from dodkrake

Sorry lads, can't really put on a big post here. Tldr is that Microsoft tried to be funny by only providing documentation within 1 business day of today's hearing and wanted a massively compressed timeline to fit before the 18th of July. Judge did grant a compressed timeline, but the hearings will occur on and after the 24th of July.

 

[Pelta88]

I think the 3 Billion Microsoft has to now pay ATVI is getting lost in the sauce.

That's a huge failure and demonstrates that Microsoft was not prepared for any type of push back. If they had anticipated it, there's no way they'd agree to that stipulation.

 

[jm89]

Considering the guy CMA sent to represent them, you have to wonder how much they really cared about the trial date.

The october date seemed like them just trying their luck, i mean who wouldn't? If they where really serious about that date, then surely they would have sent some one who was on the case for more then a few days

I didn't watch the entire stream but heard ms/abk lawyers throwing a bit of a hissy fit with that date. Did the CMA lawyer say much about that shceduled trial date after it was announced?

 

[feynoob]

I think the 3 Billion Microsoft has to now pay ATVI is getting lost in the sauce.

That's a huge failure and demonstrates that Microsoft was not prepared for any type of push back. If they had anticipated it, there's no way they'd agree to that stipulation.

No one expected that cloud market was going to be the downfall of this deal.

 

[Bernoulli]

Considering the guy CMA sent to represent them, you have to wonder how much they really cared about the trial date.

The october date seemed like them just trying it on with judge. If they where really serious about that date, then surely they would have sent some one who was on the case for more then a few days

I didn't watch the entire stream but heard ms/abk lawyers throwing a bit of a hissy fit with that date. Did the CMA lawyer say much about that shceduled trial date after it was announced?

They tried to play the we need more time that the judge granted but they didn't seem to care too much about it being on the 24th

But the Microsoft lawyer got really pissed and kept saying they need it to be before the 17th July or it would jeopardize the deal
He repeated that so many times

 

[Bernoulli]

No one expected that cloud market was going to be the downfall of this deal.

People forget that shareholders control this

ABK would have to willingly forego the 3b payout by renegotiating the contract in the hopes that the CAT will overturn AND justify their actions to their shareholders, ultimately. The same shareholders who, upon learning of the CMA block, sent the share price back to the 70s. In short

 

[PaintTinJr]

..


Did you actually say ABK will extend for 3 months for FREE? Ah stop.

It depends what percentage of shareholders actually end up making that decision for ATVI. I suspect it will be as little as 20% - so basically just institutional shareholders that make the decision and all know the score

 

[Elios83]

so the cat's decision is still for October/November? at the appeal at the end of July, will the cat only listen to the motivations of both sides?

Yes that's the timeframe when the judge said he hopes to be able to deliver the verdict.
And yes both parties will use this time to prepare their arguments (and the judge himself will probably also use the same time to better educate himself on the case).
They will both be heard during the trial which will start July 24th and will last 6-10 days and then it will take a few extra months for the verdict.

I kinda pity CMA's lawyer. They literally sent him for slaughter. I wonder what CMA's thinking was there?

What would you think if you had enough power that worst case for you is being asked down the line to decide again on the same merger case just to reach the same conclusions in other ways if you want to?
This is not a normal appeal process. That's why Microsoft isn't afraid of FTC and they are about the CMA.
CMA sent the guy who worked on the case for 3 days to take notes when the trial begins and to understand which points they need to prepare their defense on.

 

[bitbydeath]

CMA wanted October, Microsoft wanted June. It got provisionally set in July. You tell me who won.

CMA?
MS set really early, CMA set really late, both know each will be reigned in, but each are focused on falling out either side of the renegotiation date.

Being months later would make no difference to the CMA, it’s all about the added pressure of renegotiation.

 

[nikolino840]

 

[Gone]

No one expected that cloud market was going to be the downfall of this deal.

And it shouldn't have been. It's ridiculous.

 

[Yoboman]

So is the expert witness going to be the Boosteroid guy claiming this will help them win the war in Ukraine

 

[PaintTinJr]

Complete rubbish, like the worst arguments in this thread, because it was in the report long before that and even if it wasn't they have no knowledge of the CMA internal process beyond the discussions the CMA had with them.

 

[Topher]

lol....hope they have a better argument than that, because that's just bullshit. Cloud was referenced in the Phase 1 findings in September of last year.

ABK flat out lying now.

 

[GHG]

They have insiders at the CMA do they?

There was extensive documentation outlining both their concern and research into the cloud gaming sector dating all the way back to last year.

Seems like they've learnt nothing in terms of how best to deal with the CMA, still the same aggressive and accusatory tone. Good luck.

 

[Bernoulli]

Just like the argument from the Activision lawyer that Activision will never put games on cloud
When they already have them on cloud and internal documents said so

 

[Astray]

Price isn't a problem for MS. Owning them would open a lot of business potential for MS (mobile market and enhances their windows store).

At a certain point it is, Microsoft is using %75 of their cash for this deal, and they already lost out in attorney and lobbyist fees etc, not to mention the opportunity cost of not having said cash sitting in a bank collecting interest or whatever, so to have to pay out even more while potentially being on the hook for more than the 3bn (if Activision even agrees to waive the existing one) is a big, big problem. The CMA block sent their stock UP, meaning that their shareholders actually preferred it NOT going through!

Not to mention that Activision might have an interest in cutting their losses and moving on with a nice 3 billy.

I think the 3 Billion Microsoft has to now pay ATVI is getting lost in the sauce.

That's a huge failure and demonstrates that Microsoft was not prepared for any type of push back. If they had anticipated it, there's no way they'd agree to that stipulation.

If they have to pay that 3bn then someone is going to pay the price for it, no way this just goes without a big wig losing their job imo.