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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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    886
  • Poll closed .
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adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
I knew your standards were low. Which is fine. Makes it easier for me to get into your pants. But this also makes me feel ashamed. Please do better. For me?


Confused Ryan Gosling GIF
 
I just learned that a lot of games I knew growing up like The Simpsons Hit & Run, Hulk, Spyro, Lord of the Rings Fellowship of the ring, Red Ninja, Crash etc was Vivendi Publishing who merged with Activision to become Activision Blizzard. Xbox is genius then, they know wtf they’re doing. Don’t have talent? Well let’s just buy all the IPS then.

Would MS trade Halo for Call of duty 🤔 new thread.
 

bender

What time is it?
I just learned that a lot of games I knew growing up like The Simpsons Hit & Run, Hulk, Spyro, Lord of the Rings Fellowship of the ring, Red Ninja, Crash etc was Vivendi Publishing who merged with Activision to become Activision Blizzard. Xbox is genius then, they know wtf they’re doing. Don’t have talent? Well let’s just buy all the IPS then.

Would MS trade Halo for Call of duty 🤔 new thread.
giphy.gif
 

dotnotbot

Member
I just learned that a lot of games I knew growing up like The Simpsons Hit & Run, Hulk, Spyro, Lord of the Rings Fellowship of the ring, Red Ninja, Crash etc was Vivendi Publishing who merged with Activision to become Activision Blizzard. Xbox is genius then, they know wtf they’re doing. Don’t have talent? Well let’s just buy all the IPS then.

Would MS trade Halo for Call of duty 🤔 new thread.

I don't think they're buying the licence for making games with bolded IPs bundled with Activision.
 
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Godot25

Banned
So. Outside of weak CMA lawyer, did judge really questioned cloud market definition by CMA in this case?
And did ABK lawyer said that CMA did "research" of cloud gaming in 4 weeks without contacting actual participants in cloud gaming market?

oh boy dunk GIF


I wonder what would happen if CAT sent case back to CMA with "you have wrong definition of cloud gaming market" notice. Case closed?
 

jm89

Member
MSFT wanted end of July (17th ideally), judge said it was not possible and set to 24th of July. MSFT won.
They where so happy with the date, their lawyers started throwing a hissy fit about the deal being in jeapordy after the 17th, before and after the judge set the date. CMA cared so much for a win they sent their intern to show much they really cared.

Maybe your a visitor from upside downworld, and "won" means something else.
 
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Bernoulli

M2 slut
the CMA lawyer and Beard comes from the same firm and they are both

King's Counsel :messenger_open_mouth:



Since 2015, Rob has been Standing Counsel to the Competition and Markets Authority.

Rob's work is principally divided between the High Court and the Competition Appeal Tribunal, and he appears frequently in the appellate courts. Rob has appeared in many of the leading cases in competition and public procurement law.


and some were saying CMA hired their lawyers from the streets because they are poor :messenger_tears_of_joy:
 
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They where so happy with the date, their lawyers started throwing a hissy fit about the deal being in jeapordy after the 17th, before and after the judge set the date. CMA cared so much for a win they sent their intern to show much they really cared.

Maybe your a visitor from upside downworld, and "won" means something else.
You are clearly unhappy for some reason :pie_thinking: Also lol at "intern".
 
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reksveks

Member
It's obviously a joke. We all know the dude did not come across well, and that's probably from him being on the case for a few days. I mean I've been shoved into projects last minute and had times I was nervy.
It's alright, it was just funny how the two posts between you and Bernoulli lined up.

So back to news, waiting for the 2nd to see if anyone files anything, I doubt it will happen. If not, going to have to wait til the 12th.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
The want the fast track of hearing and it was implied that the deal deadline would be waived if the trials starts by July.
This is just getting into ... weird territory now.

They didn't want to "fast track the hearing". They wanted the hearing to be before the July 18 deadline. And they did not get it.

Now whether it happens on July 20 or September 20, the end result is the same for Microsoft and ABK, i.e., they will have to renegotiate the deal once more and get the shareholders to sign on the new deal once again.
 

Bernoulli

M2 slut
This is just getting into ... weird territory now.

They didn't want to "fast track the hearing". They wanted the hearing to be before the July 18 deadline. And they did not get it.

Now whether it happens on July 20 or September 20, the end result is the same for Microsoft and ABK, i.e., they will have to renegotiate the deal once more and get the shareholders to sign on the new deal once again.
For now it's 24th july but i read somewhere that the Judge can still push it later if he thinks it's not enough time but highly unlikely
 

reksveks

Member
They didn't want to "fast track the hearing". They wanted the hearing to be before the July 18 deadline. And they did not get it.
Technically the ms proposed schedule had the hearing was the week commencing the 17th which would have meant it would have gone past the 18th deadline. They would have liked it as early as possible for sure.


For now it's 24th july but i read somewhere that the Judge can still push it later if he thinks it's not enough time but highly unlikely
Yeah, it also will factor in the topic of the evidence that MS is trying to introduce
 

Bernoulli

M2 slut
Technically the ms proposed schedule had the hearing was the week commencing the 17th which would have meant it would have gone past the 18th deadline. They would have liked it as early as possible for sure.
the point is that if the appeal starts before the 17th activision can't pull out of the appeal because they are in, it's basically microsoft forcing Activision to stay if the appeal was put on before the 18th

if the appeal is after the 18th Activision can decide to not extend and that means it's over there won't be an appeal anymore because there is no more deal
 
the point is that if the appeal starts before the 17th activision can't pull out of the appeal because they are in, it's basically microsoft forcing Activision to stay if the appeal was put on before the 18th

if the appeal is after the 18th Activision can decide to not extend and that means it's over there won't be an appeal anymore because there is no more deal

Lock in ABK to the appeal process which means they don't have to make a new deal with them. In that case ABK can't ask for a higher price or a higher termination clause. Microsoft would benefit a lot if the appeal was before the 17th.

I honestly didn't know they could do this. I thought the 17th was the end of everything but having an appeal before then can make that date matter a lot less.
 
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reksveks

Member
the point is that if the appeal starts before the 17th activision can't pull out of the appeal because they are in, it's basically microsoft forcing Activision to stay if the appeal was put on before the 18th
You use the word that Heisenberg007 missed, start and I was just clarifying on.

The proposed appeal hearing using MS schedule would crossed the 18th deadline so there was going to have to be some renegotiation or addendum to extend it. I do think ABK particularly would have liked to see how the first day of the hearing went before those talks between them and MS got really important.
 

reksveks

Member
if the appeal is after the 18th Activision can decide to not extend and that means it's over there won't be an appeal anymore because there is no more deal
Should have been one reply so apologies, I do think it's interesting if MS appeals (assuming that they can) the order from the CMA that prevents partial ownership even if ABK fall out of the deal.
 

Three

Member
I do think ABK particularly would have liked to see how the first day of the hearing went before those talks between them and MS got really important.
For what reason? I suspect MS were more interested in that. This leaves the uncertainty with MS. ABK can make this as difficult or easy for them as they like.
 

Bernoulli

M2 slut
Lock in ABK to the appeal process which means they don't have to make a new deal with them. In that case ABK can't ask for a higher price or a higher termination clause. Microsoft would benefit a lot if the appeal was before the 17th.

I honestly didn't know they could do this. I thought the 17th was the end of everything but having an appeal before then can make that date matter a lot less.
the 17th would have been the start of the appeal so ABK would be locked in with them

even from money pov they won't have to pay the lawyers for that too if it was dropped before ( of course they will pay everything before the 18th)

for activision it's all down to the shareholders, they don't care about the appeal if it isn't a slam dunk
you see that on how the ATVI stock changed when the CMA blocked and it never got affected by all these approvals from EU china korea and everything
ultimately it's decided by the shareholders and all they care about is money, they sold when they were down but now they are in a much better place wich would be foolish to sell for only 70B

Activision doesn't care about seeing the first day how it goes
 

reksveks

Member
For what reason? I suspect MS were more interested in that. This leaves the uncertainty with MS. ABK can make this as difficult or easy for them as they like.
Both parties would have been interested and you are probably right that MS is more interested. I still think ABK board would have liked to know whether the tribunal was responsive or not as part of the renegotiations. I don't know who more information benefits the most here but ehh will have to see what happens between now and the 12th June and then July.
 

Elios83

Member
the point is that if the appeal starts before the 17th activision can't pull out of the appeal because they are in, it's basically microsoft forcing Activision to stay if the appeal was put on before the 18th

if the appeal is after the 18th Activision can decide to not extend and that means it's over there won't be an appeal anymore because there is no more deal

This is a good point that could justify why they were so nervous the appeal didn't start when they wanted even if it was clear that it was impossible to get a verdict in July.
 

Astray

Gold Member
Should have been one reply so apologies, I do think it's interesting if MS appeals (assuming that they can) the order from the CMA that prevents partial ownership even if ABK fall out of the deal.
The appeal grounds have been locked in already, the arguments will likely be about whether they can use expert witnesses etc etc, just evidentiary.
 

POKEYCLYDE

Member
Microsoft is paying a near 45% premium on Activision, probably because Activision's stock was so low at the time of the deal being made. When/if a renegotiation happens, I doubt you'll see the same 45% premium. More likely a 30% would do.

If Activision's stock stays at around the $80/share it is now, a 30% premium would be roughly $105/share. Which is around Activision stock's all time high. And Microsoft would then be paying roughly $75B for ABK.

I don't know where people are getting $90-100B from. So I think it's pretty possible that ABK renegotiates come July 18th. Especially if you up the break up fee by a couple billion.

Edit: My math may be fucked. But not sure.
 
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Bernoulli

M2 slut
Microsoft is paying a near 45% premium on Activision, probably because Activision's stock was so low at the time of the deal being made. When/if a renegotiation happens, I doubt you'll see the same 45% premium. More likely a 30% would do.

If Activision's stock stays at around the $80/share it is now, a 30% premium would be roughly $105/share. Which is around Activision stock's all time high. And Microsoft would then be paying roughly $75B for ABK.

I don't know where people are getting $90-100B from. So I think it's pretty possible that ABK renegotiates come July 18th. Especially if you up the break up fee by a couple billion.

Edit: My math may be fucked. But not sure.
i don't think activision will settle with 30% if they can get more from another buyer
they are not desperate anymore like the moment the deal was made they are in a much stronger position and they could just decide to not sell
 

PaintTinJr

Member
So. Outside of weak CMA lawyer, did judge really questioned cloud market definition by CMA in this case?
And did ABK lawyer said that CMA did "research" of cloud gaming in 4 weeks without contacting actual participants in cloud gaming market?

oh boy dunk GIF


I wonder what would happen if CAT sent case back to CMA with "you have wrong definition of cloud gaming market" notice. Case closed?
The judge having had just a bank holiday weekend to read the 480pages of the CMA decision - with zero knowledge of gaming - said he didn't understand the difference, which Beard jumped on and wanted to have Microsoft's people "educate" the court on their version of how to perceive gaming, which he didn't agree or disagree to, but merely indicated time would be needed to ensure everyone was using terms to mean the same thing.

However, the judge did explicitly use the words "that would be a CMA win", when referring to differences of expert opinion within acceptable margins of experts to disagree, and it completely caught the CMA lead chair off guard and he needed his second char(?) at his right hand side to explain what had happened. Based on body language, the second chair was in a great mood smiling, laughing, grinning from how things were going in the second half of proceedings- say compared to Beard losing his cool and literally spitting teeth through his words - so I doubt that outcome is happening.

The judge also formally put it on record - that despite his latitude to not make preliminary decisions on admissibility for Microsoft's unorthodox inclusion of new experts/data - the CMA retained all options to oppose and get things excluded once the direction of travel was clearer. The judge also stated "the tribunal (the CAT) wasn't naïve" to Microsoft's attempts to "backfill" data and despite the judge's earlier resistant to blindly follow the normal process the CMA urged - at the potential expense of fairness to Microsoft - he was IMO worn down by the end of proceedings in trying to be overly fair to Microsoft, by which point he seemed to have begrudgingly sided with the CMA's argument for normal proceedings and prepared to make Microsoft chose a poison of longer time line, or have preliminary judgement to dismiss their "backfilling" data at another session.
 

PaintTinJr

Member
Not that I can find. I do weirdly have the tab open so can play through it but there isn't a way to download it.
Not sure if a joke, but are you not seeing the flashing banner telling you it is illegal - contempt of court I suspect - to record the proceedings in any way?
 
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reksveks

Member
Not sure if a joke, but are you not seeing the flashing banner telling you it is illegal - contempt of court I suspect - to record the proceedings in any way?
I am not joking about the tab still being open. It might be a bit safe not to. Not sure if the government is going to be bothered to track me down if I do. I will be honest, it's just feels like a lot of hassle so that's probably the bigger blocker for me doing it.
 
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Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
I am not joking about the tab still being open. It might be a bit safe not to. Not sure if the government is going to be bothered to track me down if I do. I will be honest, it's just feels like a lot of hassle so that's probably the bigger blocker for me doing it.
Play the video and record from a mobile phone 😛
 
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