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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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foamdino

Member
In the vote I voted for:
"Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions."

Not because I want this consolidation to happen, just because I thought that the regulatory bodies wouldn't do enough due diligence. Thankfully the CMA seems to actually give a crap about doing it's job (being an independent regulator, and being on the side of not allowing mergers by default). What I don't understand is how anyone can look at a $2 trillion company buying another company for ~$69 billion and think "well that's fine"

At what point do these absurd mergers become "whoa hold-up maybe the regulators should take a serious look at that?" - the Zenimax deal was ridiculous, prior to that Minecraft for $2 billion was obscene - neither should have been approved (in my opinion).

Allowing this kind of massive deal is not in anyone's interest (apart from the very few people who will make a $ profit from it).

If you like gaming as a hobby, or if you work in game dev, or an adjacent field (server hw, middleware etc), then this deal is toxic - same as Nvidia trying to get Arm - these deals should be killed and the regulators should be firm and make it clear that "no you don't go around buying companies to squash competition"

The cheerleaders thinking only about "free games on gamepass" ffs you've been brainwashed by Microsoft
 
Activision's latest moves come across like they're beginning to think about cutting their losses and taking the 3 billy.

Microsoft wanted them to be in the appeal by July 18, that way there will be an obligation to continue "best efforts" and march together into the appeal, but the late July deadline alone fucks that plan up. Hence we are now getting puff interviews with Kotick (who barely appeared before this btw).

Yeah it's why that date was very important during the trial. They even said so themselves that any later and the deal would be in jeopardy. The CAT just gave ABK an easy way out if they want it.
 

jm89

Member
CMA is a different body organization.
The government has no involvement with them.
Trying to reason with riky?

Good luck champ.

200w.gif
 

Banjo64

cumsessed
Sad attempt by Smith that’ll go nowhere.

The Chancellor has nothing to do with M&As, fostering competitive markets or preventing consumer harm. If he even tried to lean on the CMA, the stench of corruption would end his career.

Sums up their Microsoft’s entire approach to this acquisition, and their obvious distain for the UK (and US) regulator.

All of that aside, I have no idea why Microsoft are chasing this like their literal lives depend on it. Desperation. They must really want to be the only living room box/data collector. Buy Sony/Nintendo folks.
 
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Sad attempt by Smith that’ll go nowhere.

The Chancellor has nothing to do with M&As, fostering competitive markets or preventing consumer harm. If he even tried to lean on the CMA, the stench of corruption would end his career.

Sums up their Microsoft’s entire approach to this acquisition, and their obvious distain for the UK (and US) regulator.

All of that aside, I have no idea why Microsoft are chasing this like their literal lives depend on it. Desperation. They must really want to be the only living room box/data collector. Buy Sony/Nintendo folks.

Maybe they see it as Xboxs last chance?

But I have no idea why they would think that. Xbox will continue even without ABK.
 

Bernoulli

M2 slut
Sad attempt by Smith that’ll go nowhere.

The Chancellor has nothing to do with M&As, fostering competitive markets or preventing consumer harm. If he even tried to lean on the CMA, the stench of corruption would end his career.

Sums up their Microsoft’s entire approach to this acquisition, and their obvious distain for the UK (and US) regulator.

All of that aside, I have no idea why Microsoft are chasing this like their literal lives depend on it. Desperation. They must really want to be the only living room box/data collector. Buy Sony/Nintendo folks.
It's too late now
If they wanted to influence the CMA with gov pressure it should have been before the decision
Now it's too late they've already blocked
 

Astray

Gold Member
Maybe they see it as Xboxs last chance?

But I have no idea why they would think that. Xbox will continue even without ABK.
At this point, I am almost convinced that internally, this gen is Xbox's last chance. That's the only reason this entire deal is probably happening to begin with. A last gasp for relevance in a marketplace that seems to have just.. moved on from their offerings.
 

azertydu91

Hard to Kill
At this point, I am almost convinced that internally, this gen is Xbox's last chance. That's the only reason this entire deal is probably happening to begin with. A last gasp for relevance in a marketplace that seems to have just.. moved on from their offerings.
You means like spending tens of millions to get Ninja and other streamers to mixer something like a month before closing it ?
 

Riky

$MSFT
Meaning the government cannot get involved with their decisions.
They are independent for a reason.


Me trying to explain him the process
explaining-meme.gif

I just said that the decision making is independent, but claiming that the government has "no involvement" in a government department that they fund and set for the remit for is laughable.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
Sad attempt by Smith that’ll go nowhere.

The Chancellor has nothing to do with M&As, fostering competitive markets or preventing consumer harm. If he even tried to lean on the CMA, the stench of corruption would end his career.

Sums up their Microsoft’s entire approach to this acquisition, and their obvious distain for the UK (and US) regulator.

All of that aside, I have no idea why Microsoft are chasing this like their literal lives depend on it. Desperation. They must really want to be the only living room box/data collector. Buy Sony/Nintendo folks.
They conditioned their users to no longer buy games, and their sub count is hitting a plateau (Phil's words). Hell, nobody is buying their boxes anymore going by their own admission with sales being down big time YoY.

Something has to make up for when the promised AAA games hit the sub.

Desperation and pride. Also, monetary compensation on pre-sale shares for exec's.
 

feynoob

Banned
I just said that the decision making is independent, but claiming that the government has "no involvement" in a government department that they fund and set for the remit for is laughable.
Aside of funding, they can't get involved with CMA.
So MS move here isn't worth anything.
 

feynoob

Banned
They conditioned their users to no longer buy games, and their sub count is hitting a plateau (Phil's words). Hell, nobody is buying their boxes anymore going by their own admission with sales being down big time YoY.

Something has to make up for when the promised AAA games hit the sub.

Desperation and pride. Also, monetary compensation on pre-sale shares for exec's.
Ok, let's not go full sky here.
 

Astray

Gold Member
You means like spending tens of millions to get Ninja and other streamers to mixer something like a month before closing it ?
There's a similar feel here tbh.

It's just super weird to me how they had so much time to actually prepare for this gen, and yet they largely came up with nothing. Even the controller is basically the same with an added share button. It almost feels like an effort to save on R&D while they feel out how this gen goes.
 

Riky

$MSFT
Aside of funding, they can't get involved with CMA.
So MS move here isn't worth anything.

Not only funding, they set the remit for the CMA. If they are unhappy with decisions that the CMA take they can change that remit in the future.
You think that ministers and civil servants can't talk to the CMA? They like any government department can be held to account in front of a parliamentary select committee and asked questions.
 

feynoob

Banned
I'm.only repeating what they've admitted to the CMA. Phil's words on subs plateauing, and their earnings reports on abysmal console sales.
Putting their games on gamepass day1 was going to have effect on their sales anyway.
And for sales, they are unreliable as you can change the trajectory by having games and hype on your system.
Xbox one who has bad sold around 50m-55m+.
This showcase and their upcoming future games will change that trajectory.

3-5 years is the time we can see the result of these actions.


One more thing, PS+ premium is becoming gamepass slowly, aside of the day1.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
Not only funding, they set the remit for the CMA. If they are unhappy with decisions that the CMA take they can change that remit in the future.
You think that ministers and civil servants can't talk to the CMA? They like any government department can be held to account in front of a parliamentary select committee and asked questions.
So you're suggesting coercion?
 

jm89

Member
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feynoob

Banned
Not only funding, they set the remit for the CMA. If they are unhappy with decisions that the CMA take they can change that remit in the future.
You think that ministers and civil servants can't talk to the CMA? They like any government department can be held to account in front of a parliamentary select committee and asked questions.
Why do you think they made them independent in the first place?
To make sure stuff like this doesn't happen.
 

Riky

$MSFT
Why do you think they made them independent in the first place?
To make sure stuff like this doesn't happen.

I'm not sure you understand what I'm saying. They come to an independent decision that the government can't challenge or dismiss, nobody disputes that.
However they ARE a government department and they are funded and their overall remit is set by the government. They can be held to account by parliament at a select committee. The Bank Of England is also independent, do you think the chancellor doesn't talk to the Bank of England and give his views because of that? Same with the CMA.
 

LoveCake

Member
I'm only repeating what they've admitted to the CMA. Phil's words on subs plateauing, and their earnings reports on abysmal console sales.
I am not sure why Phil isn't addressing this first, the reason for the subs plateauing and console sales going down is because the studios Xbox own haven't been making any games.

This is from today's Times newspaper.

sdrne4R.png

y6IBxmT.png


I don't see how this merger has any benefits for gamer's other than gamepass gamer's.

This deal is bad for the gaming industry and bad for gamer's.

*I am a gamepass user on Xbox Series X, PS5 (disc) & Switch.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
I am not sure why Phil isn't addressing this first, the reason for the subs plateauing and console sales going down is because the studios Xbox own haven't been making any games.

This is from today's Times newspaper.

sdrne4R.png

y6IBxmT.png


I don't see how this merger has any benefits for gamer's other than gamepass gamer's.

This deal is bad for the gaming industry and bad for gamer's.

*I am a gamepass user on Xbox Series X, PS5 (disc) & Switch.
It's bad for the majority of gaming consumers.
 

feynoob

Banned
I'm not sure you understand what I'm saying. They come to an independent decision that the government can't challenge or dismiss, nobody disputes that.
However they ARE a government department and they are funded and their overall remit is set by the government. They can be held to account by parliament at a select committee. The Bank Of England is also independent, do you think the chancellor doesn't talk to the Bank of England and give his views because of that? Same with the CMA.
Government involvement on their decisions means that they arent acting as independent.

How many decisions do you think the government will disagree? You know that this won't stop with MS.
 
They are laying the groundwork for a situation where the CAT appeal is successful.

Well it depends if they are making the right choices here. Seems like they should be talking more with the CAT and CMA then politicians in my opinion.

But the first thing they should do is renegotiate the delay. ABK is their first obstacle in the process.
 
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Getting your point of view over to the second most powerful person in government isn't going to do them any harm, getting the Chancellor of The Exchequer into a meeting in this time frame shows you have clout.

What clout? They can't even convince the CMA to let the deal through.

You are suggesting coercion. That's corruption.

Yeah I'm definitely not expecting that to happen.
 
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Elios83

Member
You are suggesting coercion. That's corruption.

Yup it's kinda embarrassing like some people in their fanaticism are pretty much openly supporting corruption scenarios :messenger_grinning_sweat: it says a lot about both them and the company they support.

Anyway I'm really looking forward to see in July that contract extension where Activision shareholders are asked to approve waiting for 2024 for a new CMA decision and in case that decision is still the same to agree with leaving the UK market :pie_roffles: let's also see the price they'll ask for that just in case.

There is a reason why Microsoft is basically desperate to have this closed before the end of July. Too bad there is no legal way to do it.
 
Yup it's kinda embarrassing like some people in their fanaticism are pretty much openly supporting corruption scenarios :messenger_grinning_sweat: it says a lot about both them and the company they support.

Anyway I'm really looking forward to see in July that contract extension where Activision shareholders are asked to approve waiting for 2024 for a new CMA decision and in case that decision is still the same to agree with leaving the UK market :pie_roffles: let's also see the price they'll ask for that just in case.

There is a reason why Microsoft is basically desperate to have this closed before the end of July. Too bad there is no legal way to do it.

I think Microsofts best option is to end this cleanly. Whether it's by dropping the deal or successfully going through the appeal process. If they do anything illegal its going to look extremely bad for them. And potentially endanger any future acquisitions they want to make. Worst case scenario is that they kill off Xbox due to this. Nobody wants to see them eliminated from the market due to their desperation.
 

foamdino

Member
One thing that I hope is clear to everyone, regardless of in the past you liked Xbox or not.

It is now clear that Microsoft have not changed since the 90s when they tried (and succeeded) in burying Netscape in the browser wars. The behaviour being shown in this past 12 months should appal everyone.
  1. Paying shills to astroturf and spread FUD (the least if the infractions)
  2. Being economical with the truth about keeping Bethesda games multi-plat ("we pinky-swear, oh but now the deal is passed nope they're all exclusive from here out")
  3. Claiming that Amazon, Apple, Google are their competition, not Sony and Nintendo "as they're out of position with respect to cloud"... but the cloud isn't a big deal "honest guv"
  4. "We're really concerned about stories from ABK"... "We're buying our best friends ABK, they're great"
  5. And finally... threatening the cybersecurity of a nation state <- at the point where a company believes it can do this with no consequences, that company should be broken up
 

feynoob

Banned
One thing that I hope is clear to everyone, regardless of in the past you liked Xbox or not.

It is now clear that Microsoft have not changed since the 90s when they tried (and succeeded) in burying Netscape in the browser wars. The behaviour being shown in this past 12 months should appal everyone.
  1. Paying shills to astroturf and spread FUD (the least if the infractions)
  2. Being economical with the truth about keeping Bethesda games multi-plat ("we pinky-swear, oh but now the deal is passed nope they're all exclusive from here out")
  3. Claiming that Amazon, Apple, Google are their competition, not Sony and Nintendo "as they're out of position with respect to cloud"... but the cloud isn't a big deal "honest guv"
  4. "We're really concerned about stories from ABK"... "We're buying our best friends ABK, they're great"
  5. And finally... threatening the cybersecurity of a nation state <- at the point where a company believes it can do this with no consequences, that company should be broken up
All this would have been nice and dandy, except gamers and people have gold fish memories.

We will forget about this in 1-2 years from now on.
 

foamdino

Member
All this would have been nice and dandy, except gamers and people have gold fish memories.

We will forget about this in 1-2 years from now on.
I lived and worked through the browser wars - never forgive and never forget just how awful they were. Over the years they've been on a redemption arc with open source dev (which features heavily in my work) - to the point where younger people think Microsoft is cool/friendly (unlike Oracle for example). Us older engineers remember though.
 

Ansphn

Member
The desperation Microsoft is showing right now for this deal is something I have never seen before from a huge corporation. Did Nvidia go crazy like this and threatened the FTC and send execs to talk to Biden? It's actually embarrassing at this point for such a successful company to do all this.
 
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