Support NeoGAF

[Nibel]

Attack On Titan needs to get bigger! A home console game with unique characters would be ace

Man, I'm so used to you being a monkey.

I have the personality of a monkey tho

in the grand scheme of things, aren't people just less furry monkeys

That's the correct science-based answer

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Belated Merry Christmas and Happy New Years, japan sales-age. Hope everyone had a good one.

Wii U has outperformed my (low) expectations for December. Not enough to really get it out of dire straits but still a good showing in the context of how horrible its year has been.

The Vita and 3DS have both somewhat underperformed. 3DS despite being the far and away lead system for the country is down quite a great deal from 2012 and the FY forecast for it seems very improbable now.

PS3 is basically saturated now. Probably crawl to 10M eventually but not much more.

I have no clue if it will be maintained, but I think you're underselling just how large of a holiday WiiU has had. I figured the system would top out with its highest sales being around the 60,000 unit mark. It is having a very unusual holiday season for a platform that has been all but dead for the other 45 weeks of the year.

No clue how to explain it, but if it really does fall down to its previous lows this platform just might be the most holiday dependent platform in history. It was selling worse than the GCN, and then has weeks outpacing it handily.

Just very very strange. To be keeping the Dreamcast company in launch aligned unit totals to then selling only 120,000 units less than the undisputed market leader and double that of the next closest competitor is just strange strange strange.

Nintendo platforms do tend to get a boost this time of year... but to this degree?

 

[shinra-bansho]

I have no clue if it will be maintained, but I think you're underselling just how large of a holiday WiiU has had. I figured the system would top out with its highest sales being around the 60,000 unit mark. It is having a very unusual holiday season for a platform that has been all but dead for the other 45 weeks of the year.

No clue how to explain it, but if it really does fall down to its previous lows this platform just might be the most holiday dependent platform in history. It was selling worse than the GCN, and then has weeks outpacing it handily.

Just very very strange. To be keeping the Dreamcast company in launch aligned unit totals to then selling only 120,000 units less than the undisputed market leader and double that of the next closest competitor is just strange strange strange.

Nintendo platforms do tend to get a boost this time of year... but to this degree?

Don't get me wrong. I only had very modest expectations of about 50-60K weekly average for December, and it's done a good deal more than that. It's probably exceeded that by around 50% or more. So in that regard it's a very good December for the system.

But when I say I don't think it's out of dire straits, it's because it's still essentially keeping company with the DC in total units (I think?) and a long way from the GCN's equivalent totals, and the problem is I fully expect it to veer back towards its previous lows.

I ultimately don't think a system can survive on just one or two big titles a year, the underlying problem of no one making games for it but Nintendo is still very much there.

 

[BishopLamont]

Nintendo platforms do tend to get a boost this time of year... but to this degree?

SM3DW's attach rate on a weekly basis must be insane, compare it to the 3DS which is dominating the software charts, yet the hardware is comparable to Wii U numbers if you take into consideration that Japan is handheld land.

 

[Dalthien]

But when I say I don't think it's out of dire straits, it's because it's still essentially keeping company with the DC in total units (I think?) and a long way from the GCN's equivalent totals, and the problem is I fully expect it to veer back towards its previous lows.

Nah, the WiiU is already up 215k, and depending on the numbers from the final week of Dec., it could be up somewhere near 300k over the DC at the end of the 2nd calendar year. And the DC sold a whopping 400k in its 3rd calendar year. So the DC is forevermore in WiiU's rear-view mirror - for whatever tiny little victory that's worth.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Wait what, WiiU is still behind GC in Japan? I thought it surpassed it.

Holy shit the GCN had 2 million by the end of its first year.

1) 2 000 000
2) 1 190 000
3) 500 000
4) 300 000
5) 110 000

Is this correct......god damn the GC cratered.

 

[Captain Smoker]

/edit

 

[Amin_and_Azizah]

Don't get me wrong. I only had very modest expectations of about 50-60K weekly average for December, and it's done a good deal more than that. It's probably exceeded that by around 50% or more. So in that regard it's a very good December for the system.

But when I say I don't think it's out of dire straits, it's because it's still essentially keeping company with the DC in total units (I think?) and a long way from the GCN's equivalent totals, and the problem is I fully expect it to veer back towards its previous lows.

I ultimately don't think a system can survive on just one or two big titles a year, the underlying problem of no one making games for it but Nintendo is still very much there.

I would like to interject something here. You make some very good points but there are so many people purchasing Nintendo products for Nintendo games only and Nintendo has already proven that they can survive and carry a console all by themselves raking in the profits as (insert) consoles sole provider. Also, Wii fit U releases in retail this month, and Nintendo has already began its marketing push for it by hiring a very popular fitness trainer. Which will bring in a specific audience and help boost sales for the month of january all while keeping the Wii U's retail presence on consumers minds while we wait for Donkey Kong to be released in late February. We also don't know what other secret surprises they have in store for us.

 

[Dalthien]

Wait what, WiiU is still behind GC in Japan? I thought it surpassed it.

Holy shit the GCN had 2 million by the end of its first year.

1) 2 000 000
2) 1 190 000
3) 500 000
4) 300 000
5) 110 000

Is this correct......god damn the GC cratered.

You're combining two holiday seasons into the first year. It's more like

CY1 - 926k
CY2 - 1034k
CY3 - 1040k
CY4 - 608k
CY5 - 305k
CY6 - 90k

The GC launched in Sept vs WiiU in Dec, so it had an extra 3 months in CY1, but even so, GC CY2 will still beat WiiU CY2.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

You're combining two holiday seasons into the first year. It's more like

CY1 - 926k
CY2 - 1034k
CY3 - 1040k
CY4 - 608k
CY5 - 305k
CY6 - 90k

The GC launched in Sept vs WiiU in Dec, so it had an extra 3 months in CY1, but even so, GC CY2 will still beat WiiU CY2.

Yeah I was doing the 2001-2002, 2002-2003 thing. Thanks for the accurate numbers. I used ot have confidence the WiiU was going to beat the GC in Japan but even that is looking like a challenge for the system.

I would like to interject something here. You make some very good points but there are so many people purchasing Nintendo products for Nintendo games only and Nintendo has already proven that they can survive and carry a console all by themselves raking in the profits as (insert) consoles sole provider. Also, Wii fit U releases in retail this month, and Nintendo has already began its marketing push for it by hiring a very popular fitness trainer. Which will bring in a specific audience and help boost sales for the month of january all while keeping the Wii U's retail presence on consumers minds while we wait for Donkey Kong to be released in late February. We also don't know what other secret surprises they have in store for us.

For home consoles they never have and didn't Iwata himself say that they are not in the business to achieve GC sales. Wii Fit U is not going to have a big impact on WiiU. That audience has gone.

 

[Amin_and_Azizah]

Yeah I was doing the 2001-2002, 2002-2003 thing. Thanks for the accurate numbers. I used ot have confidence the WiiU was going to beat the GC in Japan but even that is looking like a challenge for the system.



For home consoles they never have and didn't Iwata himself say that they are not in the business to achieve GC sales. Wii Fit U is not going to have a big impact on WiiU. That audience has gone.

Yes you maybe right about that.

 

[Principate]

Wait what, WiiU is still behind GC in Japan? I thought it surpassed it.

Holy shit the GCN had 2 million by the end of its first year.

1) 2 000 000
2) 1 190 000
3) 500 000
4) 300 000
5) 110 000

Is this correct......god damn the GC cratered.

That's probably because the game cubes, primary system seller Super Smash bro's melee had released in the first year. As you can see everything went to crap from there.

Still not good for the Wii U however

 

[cw_sasuke]

For home consoles they never have and didn't Iwata himself say that they are not in the business to achieve GC sales. Wii Fit U is not going to have a big impact on WiiU. That audience has gone.

Well of course Iwata won't say that their goal are Cube like sales for their next system in front of their shareholders - that doesn't mean that such sales can't be profitable for them if the system is designed around it. Cube was cheap and still sold for profit - 3DS and WiiU are failures imo because the margin of these systems is way too low, just because they overrated the value of their "gimmicks".

Gotta say I hate Konno for some of his hardware design choices with the current system :-/

 

[sörine]

For home consoles they never have

Sure they did. Wii, N64, the early days of the Famicom.

 

[IncandescentPrecept]

The PS3 will sell a lot more if it wasn't still so expensive.

 

[Captain Smoker]

Well of course Iwata won't say that their goal are Cube like sales for their next system in front of their shareholders - that doesn't mean that such sales can't be profitable for them if the system is designed around it. Cube was cheap and still sold for profit - 3DS and WiiU are failures imo because the margin of these systems is way too low, just because they overrated the value of their "gimmicks".

Gotta say I hate Konno for some of his hardware design choices with the current system :-/

But their business was driven by the GBA.

I believe that Nintendo is going to do whatever it takes to generate profit with their next systems from day 1. It also helps them that graphical jumps are decreasing, so they don't need the best hardware to achieve good graphics and therefore a "psychological value" which is closer to the competitors than before, even if the console price is lower.

But they're still going to try to implement "that special twist" into their hardware.

 

[L~A]

But they're still going to try to implement "that special twist" into their hardware.

Of course they will. It's both a curse and a blessing, but it's not something they should get rid of.

 

[Zornica]

Problem with Amazon and WiiU is they dont sell the console directly those are 3rd party merchants. Pricing on Amazon for the bundles is/has been more expensive then instore. In the WiiU's case I would not use Amazon to reflect anything honestly.

nah, that's only in NA, if it's still case.

[...]so they don't need the best hardware to achieve good graphics and therefore a "psychological value" which is closer to the competitors than before, even if the console price is lower.[...]

I am not sure about Japan, but that wouldn't work as well in the "west". So called enthusiasts still buy specs over consoles. If something looks weak on paper, it doesn't seem to matter if it produces appealing results. Just take a look at the "next gen screenshot thread" and the discussions there.

 

[saichi]

The PS3 will sell a lot more if it wasn't still so expensive.

not in Japan

 

[Takao]

RIP Little Battlers eXperience

The anime has been canceled. Inazuma Eleven lives to see another day year.

 

[Alrus]

RIP Little Battlers eXperience

The anime has been canceled. Inazuma Eleven lives to see another day year.

It's really dead... This has to be one of the most damning example of how to squander a decently successful start for a series.

IE is probably not going to live much longer... Level-5 must be hoping Yokai Watch anime takes off or that one of their social game becomes insanely popular...

 

[disco]

RIP Little Battlers eXperience

The anime has been canceled. Inazuma Eleven lives to sell another day year.

*That's how I initially read your post.

 

[Hero of Legend]

RIP Little Battlers eXperience

The anime has been canceled. Inazuma Eleven lives to see another day year.

Didn't Wars just recently air (or did it even air at all?)?

Shame, the IP had potential (fucking fighting robots dammit!).

 

[L~A]

Didn't Wars just recently air (or did it even air at all?)?

Shame, the IP had potential (fucking fighting robots dammit!).

Anime started airing in April, until late october.

 

[BriBri]

Kirby is less than a week away! Even my Giant Kirby plush is smiling!

 

[Magicpaint]

RIP Little Battlers eXperience

The anime has been canceled. Inazuma Eleven lives to see another day year.

Well done Level-5. Well at least they can focus on the mobile sector now, lol.

 

[BlackJace]

Kirby is less than a week away! Even my Giant Kirby plush is smiling!

How does Kirby do in Japan?

 

[Takao]

Anime started airing in April, until late october.

The Wars anime ended last week with episode 37.

Yokai Watch's anime takes over the time slot previously held by Inazuma Eleven Go. The latter moves down 30 minutes to claim the slot that LBX used to have.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

RIP Little Battlers eXperience

The anime has been canceled. Inazuma Eleven lives to see another day year.

Tragic.

Any news about Youkai Watch? I thought it was set to take IE time slot?

EDIT: Oh there it is. RISE THIS IS THE BEGINNING

 

[Magicpaint]

How does Kirby do in Japan?

The traditional games (like Squeak Squad on DS and the SNES remake Super Star Ultra Deluxe) are often million sellers, or close to (Kirby 64, Kirby Nightmare in Dream Land).

 

[BlackJace]

The traditional games (like Squeak Squad on DS) are often million sellers.

Woah, I had no idea.

 

[kswiston]

I haven't been following the Level-5 Saga very closely. What did they do to burn through all of their good will?

 

[L~A]

The Wars anime ended last week with episode 37.

Yokai Watch's anime takes over the time slot previously held by Inazuma Eleven Go. The latter moves down 30 minutes to claim the slot that LBX used to have.

Ah, thanks. ANN is terribly outdated it seems. But didn't we already knew that Inazuma Eleven Go anime would take LBX's slot? I remember reading something about that on GAF a few days ago.

I'm quite looking forward to the Youkai Watch anime, especially the potential impact it'll have on sales.

 

[lwilliams3]

Yeah I was doing the 2001-2002, 2002-2003 thing. Thanks for the accurate numbers. I used ot have confidence the WiiU was going to beat the GC in Japan but even that is looking like a challenge for the system.



For home consoles they never have and didn't Iwata himself say that they are not in the business to achieve GC sales. Wii Fit U is not going to have a big impact on WiiU. That audience has gone.

The Wii fit audience is different from the ones just playing cellphone games. There was some type of survey in Japan that shows that A sizable audience is still the Wii to play Wii Fit.

 

[Alrus]

I haven't been following the Level-5 Saga very closely. What did they do to burn through all of their good will?

Extreme milking of their franchise. LBX was particularly insane. Like re-releases out the wazoo in a very short time frame, and tip-toeing on your platform choice.

Inazuma held better but it never recovered from the massive drop in popularity after the 3rd entry.

 

[Magicpaint]

Extreme milking of their franchise. LBX was particularly insane. Like re-releases out the wazoo in a very short time frame, and tip-toeing on your platform choice.

Inazuma held better but it never recovered from the massive drop in popularity after the 3rd entry.

Don't forget the last game in the LB series was a genre switch as well. Unbelievably management of that franchise which started with potential.

Inazuma was slightly handheld better but Level-5 can't seem to grasp the notion that not every franchise has to be a yearly iteration so they've run IE and Layton to the ground.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

The Wii fit audience is different from the ones just playing cellphone games. There was some type of survey in Japan that shows that A sizable audience is still the Wii to play Wii Fit.

I never said they were the same. Just that they are not on WiiU.

 

[Tratorn]

Cube was cheap and still sold for profit

Do you (or someone else) have a source for that? I read that often but never saw a source. They still made money, but wasn't that only because of the GBA? The GBA could have been strong enough to eliminate a loss of the Cube and still make a good profit.

I still can't really believe that the Cube alone made (a good) profit, at least not after their big pricecuts.

 

[Apophis2036]

Do you (or someone else) have a source for that? I read that often but never saw a source. They still made money, but wasn't that only because of the GBA? The GBA could have been strong enough to eliminate a loss of the Cube and still make a good profit.

I still can't really believe that the Cube alone made (a good) profit, at least not after their big pricecuts.

Didn't Nintendo have millions of unsold GameCube consoles left over in factories by the end of that gen ?, I imagine that wiped out most of the tiny GameCube profit.

 

[DrWong]

Didn't Nintendo have millions of unsold GameCube consoles left over in factories by the end of that gen ?, I imagine that wiped out most of the tiny GameCube profit.

No.

 

[Koppai]

I wish Level-5 would localize more of their games for the west besides Layton and Inazuma. I want to play LBX and Yokai Watch

 

[ZSaberLink]

So these are the Media Create sales of NSMBU, Nintendo Land, and Super Mario 3D World since their launches. Since these all launched at similar times in the holiday season, I thought it'd be interesting to compare what their sales have been so far up until 2/13 of each year (around the time Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze launches this year).

NSMBU:
Week 49, 2012 (12/3 - 12/9) - 163,528
Week 50, 2012 (12/10-12/16) - 71,011 / 234,539
Week 51, 2012 (12/17-12/23) - 77,749 / 312,288
Week 52, 2012 (12/24-12/30) - 57,103 / 369,392
Week 1, 2013 (12/31 - 1/6) - 50,319 / 419,710
Week 2, 2013 (1/7 - 1/13) - 12,400 / 432,110
Week 3, 2013 (1/14 - 1/20) - 9,598 / 441,708
Week 4, 2013 (1/21 - 1/27) - 6,883 / 448,591
Week 5, 2013 (1/28 - 2/3) - 6,338 / 454,929
Week 6, 2013 (2/4 - 2/10) - 5,857 / 460,786

...

Super Mario 3D World:
Week 47, 2013 (11/18-11/24) - 99,588
Week 48, 2013 (11/25-12/01) - 39,812 / 139,400
Week 49, 2013 (12/02-12/08) - 43,844 / 183,245
Week 50, 2013 (12/09-12/15) - 57,862 / 241,107
Week 51, 2013 (12/16-12/22) - 86,408 / 327,514

Since Mario 3D World actually did better in week 51 than NSMBU did last year, do you think 3D World could also sell better in week 52 (especially with the 23rd and 24th in that week)? How about past that?

Wait what, WiiU is still behind GC in Japan? I thought it surpassed it.

Holy shit the GCN had 2 million by the end of its first year.

1) 2 000 000
2) 1 190 000
3) 500 000
4) 300 000
5) 110 000

Is this correct......god damn the GC cratered.

I don't think the Wii U will face this fate imo. I really think it will sell better in 2014 than it did in 2013 simply due to the caliber of the titles coming out. I think having both Smash & Mario Kart in Japan next year will make an impact. 2013 was largely carried on the back of 3D World, NSMBU leftovers, Wii Party U (in terms of the bundle), and a bit of Pikmin 3. Also, based on the performance of the PS3 and the current lineup of the PS4, I don't think Sony will have anything close to the dominance it had during the PS2 days. That hopefully should give Nintendo a bit more room in the console space despite the smaller console market in Japan.

 

[Road]

Prediction League January, 2014

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Dec. 30 to Jan 26):

[WIU] Hardware (28 days) -
[3DS] Kirby Triple Deluxe (16 days) -
[PS3] Sengoku Basara 4 (4 days) -
[ALL] Dragon Ball Z: Battle of Z (4 days) -

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Deadline: Jan, 6 00:00 am (EST) (when Famitsu or Media Create first make their weekly sales public)

Attention:

• Remember for some games it's not only the 1st week.
• Multiplatform games are the combined available sales of each platform

Rules:

• Do not edit your post after the deadline. If you do, you'll be disqualified.
• The official monthly hardware sales will be the sum of weekly numbers for all versions of the system available from Famitsu.
• The official monthly software sales will be the latest total or the sum of the weekly numbers if the title is release before the period available from the Famitsu Top 30.
• The official monthly sales for multi-platform releases will be the combined available sales of each platform shown in the title entry.
• The official monthly sales for games with multiple versions will be the combined available sales of each version shown in the title entry.
• Any game missing in the Famitsu top 30 will be taken out of the predictions.
• Any item missing in your prediction will be considered as if you had predicted zero for its sales.

This month is so boring I almost forgot about it completely. We should have predicted already, so the deadline is shorter. You have only the weekend to make your guess.

 

[1st Course]

Does anyone have Famitsu SW breakdown for 2012? IIRC either Chris or Road posted it once but I can't find the post.

 

[H_Prestige]

The Wii fit audience is different from the ones just playing cellphone games. There was some type of survey in Japan that shows that A sizable audience is still the Wii to play Wii Fit.

And those people likely have no problem playing the original Wii Fit whenever they get the urge.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTc4c2PXmbk

The anime will premiere on Wednesday, January 8 at 7:00 p.m. on the TV Tokyo channel.

 

[nordique]

Well of course Iwata won't say that their goal are Cube like sales for their next system in front of their shareholders - that doesn't mean that such sales can't be profitable for them if the system is designed around it. Cube was cheap and still sold for profit - 3DS and WiiU are failures imo because the margin of these systems is way too low, just because they overrated the value of their "gimmicks".

Gotta say I hate Konno for some of his hardware design choices with the current system :-/

Can't win em all, and to be fair, hindsight is 20/20

 

[metalslimer]

Wii U will almost certainly sell better in 2014 than 2013 with Mario Kart, Smash, and a probable price cut. However, the system seems pretty much doomed in Japan after next year. The one piece of software they haven't announced is Animal Crossing, but once that comes out and Nintendo is out of potential evergreens the Wii U won't have much without 3rd party support. This is the problem with me seeing Wii U outselling the GC in Japan is that past year 3 I don't think it will really be a viable system.

[WIU] Hardware (28 days) - 109k
[3DS] Kirby Triple Deluxe (16 days) - 247k
[PS3] Sengoku Basara 4 (4 days) - 220k
[ALL] Dragon Ball Z: Battle of Z (4 days) - 56k

 

[Asd202]

Wii U may beat GC in Japan but WW it has no chance, meaning overall it will sell worse than GC.

 

[Arkam]

Way to go WiiU and Vita!
Both sold very well, but WiiU especially!!

See it shows how a few key releases can make a huge impact. I think people need to remember that when making lifetime sales predictions. 20m Does not seem like a stretch at all when you factor in what titles are already known to be in the pipeline (DKC,MK8, SSB, B2, X, Zelda, Yoshi Island) and what is a safe assumption (like another 3D mario).

Plus the console will hit the magical $199.99 price point in the next 12-24 months. Once it does it will become an impulse buy item with a solid library.

WiiU might not set the world on fire....but it will do alright.