Easy to manipulate percentages without knowing hard numbers.
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February 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, March 7th
Liabe Brave
Member
I'm very sorry, I didn't mean to mock your position, only contradict it. I do see that how I stated my argument could be interpreted as "you're dumb if you think otherwise" though, so I sincerely apologize. I'll edit the post to preserve my point, but make it clear that your contradictory take isn't risible or stupid.
ethomaz
Banned
I agree. Some posters here do sound very invested.
The Gorby Congressmanz
Banned
What were the previous januarys?
No I'm agreeing with you when we don't get hard numbers company use percentages to make things look better.
Primethius
Banned
What are you even agreeing with? The comment makes absolutely no sense.
How does something like Nier remotely equate to a feature set on a console? Why are we even comparing the impact of SW with the impact of a feature set?
BC and UHDs impact on GAF was compeletely overstated. And to a lesser degree, the XB1S with it's newfound "momemtum." We don't have to pretend that people's speculation and predictions that turned out to be false or not entirely true or not so now that we have a more complete picture.
I go for a 10 mile run and come back to a finally active thread only to see accusations about console warring that's not actually happening.
Look, we know Xbox won July 2016. The Xbox One S came out in August and Xbox won that month as well. They also won September and October leading up to the launch of the PS4 Pro. So that's 4 months of momentum right there and that's all good for MS.
When the PS4 Pro launched in November, many people suspected the PS4 would win November and by a lot. That didn't quite happen as PS4 managed to only outsell Xbox by 100K. You could argue that's not a bad result for Xbox.
In December, the gap was even closer at 57K (1568K for PS4 vs 1511K for Xbox). That's still not a bad result for Xbox because even though they lost, the gap was even closer than November and at that point, the PS4 Pro was on the market.
Going into January, if Xbox managed to get the gap even closer or outright win, that would show Xbox has generated and sustained momentum from the Xbox One S through the holidays and into the "offseason", months they traditionally have done very poorly in.
However, in a very slow month, the gap actually widened (estimated PS4 around 222K and Xbox around 157K). A consolation prize for Xbox is that at least they had their best January ever but honestly, their best January ever didn't come close to PS4 in January and PS4 was down YOY. My interpretation of January's result is that Xbox's momentum was slowing down -- not that it was gone altogether -- but that it was slowing down.
Now, if February is down YOY for Xbox, I would further conclude that their momentum is now gone. If that's the case, it only gets worse from here as PS4 has attracted all the media attention so far this year from a slew of console exclusive, critically acclaimed games and we have more to come in the form of Persona in April (and Nier and Horizon just dropped).
None of this is console warring.
I'm just looking at the little bit of information that we have from the past several months and stating my opinion based on those facts. Microsoft went from touting #1 in NPD to YOY growth when they could no longer claim they were #1 and now they're on growth in Xbox live usage. We know they can't say they're #1 so is there a reason why they can't say they're up YOY? I'd bet there is.
Look, we know Xbox won July 2016. The Xbox One S came out in August and Xbox won that month as well. They also won September and October leading up to the launch of the PS4 Pro. So that's 4 months of momentum right there and that's all good for MS.
When the PS4 Pro launched in November, many people suspected the PS4 would win November and by a lot. That didn't quite happen as PS4 managed to only outsell Xbox by 100K. You could argue that's not a bad result for Xbox.
In December, the gap was even closer at 57K (1568K for PS4 vs 1511K for Xbox). That's still not a bad result for Xbox because even though they lost, the gap was even closer than November and at that point, the PS4 Pro was on the market.
Going into January, if Xbox managed to get the gap even closer or outright win, that would show Xbox has generated and sustained momentum from the Xbox One S through the holidays and into the "offseason", months they traditionally have done very poorly in.
However, in a very slow month, the gap actually widened (estimated PS4 around 222K and Xbox around 157K). A consolation prize for Xbox is that at least they had their best January ever but honestly, their best January ever didn't come close to PS4 in January and PS4 was down YOY. My interpretation of January's result is that Xbox's momentum was slowing down -- not that it was gone altogether -- but that it was slowing down.
Now, if February is down YOY for Xbox, I would further conclude that their momentum is now gone. If that's the case, it only gets worse from here as PS4 has attracted all the media attention so far this year from a slew of console exclusive, critically acclaimed games and we have more to come in the form of Persona in April (and Nier and Horizon just dropped).
None of this is console warring.
I'm just looking at the little bit of information that we have from the past several months and stating my opinion based on those facts. Microsoft went from touting #1 in NPD to YOY growth when they could no longer claim they were #1 and now they're on growth in Xbox live usage. We know they can't say they're #1 so is there a reason why they can't say they're up YOY? I'd bet there is.
ethomaz
Banned
I agree with you completely and I think making that comparison is a sign that you're too invested.
It was a sarcasm fail on my part.
Primethius
Banned
Ah, gotcha. Sorry for not catching it.
The Gorby Congressmanz
Banned
So we are saying this january was insignificant because?
152k was likely a result of the fire sale 2014. Which last year didn't have. Then the Xbox was having a downward spiral until the S came out. Which explained the 132k. I think ju,ping up past it's fire sale numbers without a firesale, as well as being consistently up over the last few months shows that this January was good for Xbox.
ethomaz
Banned
Insignificant? Where did you read that?
These are all abissal sales... best January ever with all Januaries being terrible lol
Welfare
Member
That was just the number 1 predictor. Through ordering everyone's predictions the results are estimated to be
PS4: 211K
XB1: 157K
Gap: 54K
So the gap actually shrunk from December (57K).
Yep, I read through that thread which explained how the numbers were derived. When I wrote the previous post, I was on the fence about whether I should focus on the gap in terms of unit sales or the gap in terms of percentage but I was getting tired at that point and didn't want to explain the gap in terms of a percentage. In hindsight, I should've probably focused on percentages because that's the bigger issue. ~50K gap in December when 3 million consoles are sold is close but ~50K gap in January when less than 400K consoles are sold is not close. On top of the fact that averaging 150K every January in itself is not great as ethomaz pointed out. That was the point I wanted to get across but my mistake for not taking the time to explain that.
Can someone explain how these numbers were calculated if no one ever gave them?
hanspampel
Banned
RDR2 alone will carry Xbox One and Ps4 in Q4 2017 and Q1 2018
CosmicQueso
Member
Welfare's numbers for Jan are good.
Januarys are generally slow, and completely unpredictive of full year results, especially in a year like this.
No one element of a console's complete product offering can be individually analyzed to determine whether or not it was meaningful definitively.
At least say "I think BC isn't meaningful" and not "BC isn't meaningful" because you don't know just how impactful it really is in a vacuum.
Januarys are generally slow, and completely unpredictive of full year results, especially in a year like this.
No one element of a console's complete product offering can be individually analyzed to determine whether or not it was meaningful definitively.
At least say "I think BC isn't meaningful" and not "BC isn't meaningful" because you don't know just how impactful it really is in a vacuum.
The Gorby Congressmanz
Banned
You downplayed the sales and ignored the increase percentage.
The Gorby Congressmanz
Banned
lol
ethomaz
Banned
lol
Anybody in prediction thread could reach these numbers with little math.
Probably never
because we won't get full ranking anymore.Liabe Brave
Member
While we don't know the actual numbers, we do know the guesses of the top 5 predictors for January. We also know that PS4 had to be less than 230k (because down YOY), and Xbox One had to be between 150k and 239k (because best January ever, but also below PS4). All this gives us a parametric formula, to which there are very few solutions. PS4 must be 211 or 212 (the former more likely), and Xbox One must be 156 or 157 (the latter more likely).
Probably never
What do you mean? Why is that?
ethomaz
Banned
Jan numbers were calc from the prediction ranking but now the ranking will only show the winner.
Actually the Gap didn't shrink. It increased at a slightly slower pace.
In Xbox's #1 market.
How did the 360 do at the same point in time, just for curiosity's sake?
I know this is just the prediction thread, but when do we get real NPD numbers? You can't say someone won, if you can't compare the prediction to real numbers, right?
ethomaz
Banned
The prediction compares with real number but the numbers are not public.
Who do the ranking receive the numbers just for the ranking... not to share to anybody.
You have the choice to believe or not in the ranking but the numbers won't be shared.
Katana_Strikes
Member
Wrong thread?
Welfare
Member
I meant the gap between the two was smaller in January than December.
Actually, I am going to chalk this up to the PS3 Slim effect. PS3 slim was a much needed restart for the console in 2009 and it even outsold the 360 in September, October, and December.
September
PS3: 491,800
Xbox 360: 352,600
October
PS3: 320,600
Xbox 360: 249,700
November
Xbox 360: 819,500
PS3: 710,400
December
PS3: 1,360,000
Xbox 360: 1,310,000
Then in 2010 the 360 went back to outselling the PS3 as early as January.
January
Xbox 360: 332,800
PS3: 276,900
February
Xbox 360: 422,000
PS3: 360,100
March
Xbox 360: 338,400
PS3: 313,900
The PS3 slim was not enough to continue outselling the 360 (which would later get its slim revision and Kinect) but it did improve sales from the previous year and even had its best Q1 at the time. The two brands have basically switched, hell the gap between the PS4/XB1 and PS3/360 in January 2010/2017 is basically the same.
ethomaz
Banned
Now I guess some here will understand how bad XB1 January numbers are... best January is not an accomplishment in any way... it is bad.
But there where monthly NPD threads before. Are those numbers not public anymore?
KawabataSan
Member
Who said that?
ethomaz
Banned
Numbers are not public since 2010 if I'm not wrong.
You get the numbers via leakers but these are not leaking anymore.
Read the last month prediction thread... if there is leak the ranking will be normal if not it will be only the winner to not calc the actual numbers.
Why is nobody leaking the numbers anymore? And who confirmes who guessed right/closest?
Well somebody sure seems agitated by analysis and logical conjecture. Fun fact: saying people didn't do something after they did exactly that doesn't make it any less true. Multiple people explained the flaws and baseless logical leaps in certain arguments. Shame that this seems to be the only thing that can get thes threads moving anymore.
For the record re: UHD Drive I was merely pointing out that I and others thought it would be a bigger factor than it appears it actually is so far. There were also those explaining that it wasn't as big of a selling point as many seemed to think like Abdiel. It wasn't my intention to stir up a war about the value of SW support versus OS/HW features. I see no point in such a comparison since it essentially impossible to determine the impact such software or features have on the general appeal or sales of HW. Please let's not be sidetracked from genuine discussion and analysis by silly improbable quibbles.
For the record re: UHD Drive I was merely pointing out that I and others thought it would be a bigger factor than it appears it actually is so far. There were also those explaining that it wasn't as big of a selling point as many seemed to think like Abdiel. It wasn't my intention to stir up a war about the value of SW support versus OS/HW features. I see no point in such a comparison since it essentially impossible to determine the impact such software or features have on the general appeal or sales of HW. Please let's not be sidetracked from genuine discussion and analysis by silly improbable quibbles.
Sangetsu-II
Member
I agree, the real question is will XB1 be in third place from now on in NPD with switch out.
Things will be interesting.
CosmicQueso
Member
At least for March it's a safe assumption. Maybe over the next few months. Holiday is much tougher to guess at.
ethomaz
Banned
That I only can guess.
NPD worked in every way to stop the leaks and hide information from the public... now that is the situation.
Damn, Abdiel surely resisted attacks back then
Sangetsu-II
Member
MS sure is in a tough spot then if all their games come out in the holidays this year.
Can't imagine XB1 being third place until fall NPD is a good image for them (sorta ala Wii U).
The answer to your question is contained by the very fact that there were leakers.
NPD no longer wants the numbers public, as they sell their tracking numbers. It's pretty difficult to charge for numbers/analysis if the information is publicly available.
Think about the steps they would have taken to close off the leaks, because their initial reasons for halting public reporting on their numbers is still in effect..
CosmicQueso
Member
Never mind.
ethomaz
Banned
Well I read
I understood you point and I believe your guess is probably way more accurate than mine
The only doubt I have is who benefits from that because in any case I don't see how you have NPD like it was until 2010 can affect any business.
If the reason is because the digital grow but we are talking about console where it will never have digital sales... and games I don't see issue in share the TOP10 that usually is great.
PS. Just my thinking and I won't do nvm because aí already wrote it
hanspampel
Banned
With holiday sales now making up over 50% of the yearly hardware sales, i doubt they care that much for "preseason"
Funny how basically everything changed this gen. Before games were holiday and hardware was all year long.
Now games are all year long and hardware sales are more concentrated towards the holiday season
ethomaz
Banned
I never lived this gen described here lol
Holiday always had strong sales compared with the rest of the year by a huge margin.
Games was always launched across all the year.
Since SNES at least.
Will be and PS4 in second for next months. Sales of these consoles in Q2 are usually low.