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February 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, March 7th

RexNovis

Banned
With holiday sales now making up over 50% of the yearly hardware sales, i doubt they care that much for "preseason"

Funny how basically everything changed this gen. Before games were holiday and hardware was all year long.
Now games are all year long and hardware sales are more concentrated towards the holiday season

... oh I see we've returned to calling the majority of the year of sales "preseason" now. If you think any company doesn't care how their product sells for 8 months of the year you are sorely mistaken.

Funny to see this return after seeing the same people attribute such significance and meaning to "preseason" sales months so recently. Old habits die hard I suppose.

"What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again. There is nothing new under the sun."
 

ethomaz

Banned
... oh I see we've returned to calling the majority of the year of sales "preseason" now. If you think any company doesn't care how their product sells for 8 months of the year you are sorely mistaken.

Funny to see this return after seeing the same people attribute such significance and meaning to "preseason" sales months so recently. Old habits die hard I suppose.

"What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again. There is nothing new under the sun."
It is like MS saying only second-half of 2016 did matter for sales lol
 

Thorrgal

Member
With holiday sales now making up over 50% of the yearly hardware sales, i doubt they care that much for "preseason"

Funny how basically everything changed this gen. Before games were holiday and hardware was all year long.
Now games are all year long and hardware sales are more concentrated towards the holiday season

You doubt they care? Of course they care...you really think they don't care??

Man I though you were objective in your everlasting fight in defense of Xbox but I see they were just words
 

Welfare

Member
Of course companies care for the "preseason". Microsoft shelved the Kinect after sales flopped in April 2014. They didn't wait until the holidays to fix their position.

It is like MS saying only second-half of 2016 did matter for sales lol

No they didn't. They stated they were the top selling console in the second half of the year. That isn't some sort of spin.
 
No they didn't. They stated they were the top selling console in the second half of the year. That isn't some sort of spin.

It was not spin( guess that depends on how you look at it ).
Still it was funny since the last 3 to 4 months was what they like to talk about normally .
 

N.Domixis

Banned
Even if we don't get numbers We will know when the gap is small, Windows central will probably post them. Always found it suspicious how they had numbers out of nowhere for two months the gap was close and now they are coincidentally absent.
 

Welfare

Member
Even if we don't get numbers We will know when the gap is small, Windows central will probably post them. Always found it suspicious how they had numbers out of nowhere for two months the gap was close and now they are coincidentally absent.

NPD probably told them to shut up or face legal issues. 3 strikes and your out and all that.
 
You doubt they care? Of course they care...you really think they don't care??

Man I though you were objective in your everlasting fight in defense of Xbox but I see they were just words

look what post i was referring to
i doubt they will care much about the image of "being third place until fall NPD (sorta ala Wii U)"
especially not, when they potentially can brag about best selling console after Scorpio release.

when you ask, if Microsoft does care about sales of their product and platform, sure they always do. and they also do care about the sales performance compared to competition



but why do i even bother to answer. your post makes your intention as clear as possible ;)
 

Chris1

Member
Even if we don't get numbers We will know when the gap is small, Windows central will probably post them. Always found it suspicious how they had numbers out of nowhere for two months the gap was close and now they are coincidentally absent.

This is what I said in another thread few days ago

I know this might come off as salty but honestly Idk if Jez has any actual insiders or if people at MS just use him as a controlled leak. Notice how he got NPD numbers twice when it was close then nothing when the gaps were bigger? Plus Aaron retweeted those articles almost instantly

He was also the one that was told Scalebound was officially cancelled aswell. Maybe I'm reading too much into it but that's what I think. His "leaks" always play it too safe IMO

Could be way off base & I don't know the guy at all but that's the impression I get from his "sources"
 

MTC100

Banned
Nintendo is pretty clever, they released the switch with nothing but Zelda and it was the right choice, the system is still pretty much sold out over here in central Europe and seems to be hard to get over there in the US as well.

When the demand slows down and Switches are actually buyable at local stores they release Mario Kart 8 Deluxe to again fire up the sales. People think this game won't do so well because it's "just" a port with better resolution and the added Battle Mode but there's another factor coming into place: The Mario Kart Wii owners, there are 35 mil. people out there that bought that game and only 7 mil. bought the WiiU version.

-Sure the Wii was insanely popular but why? Was it really because of the motion controls or was it perhaps also because of the real games that sold incredibly well, Mario Kart is still an extremely successful series and will most likely push Switch sales very heavily. I really wonder if Nintendo doesn't have some kind of New Mario Bros. Switch up their sleeves too.
 

sirronoh

Member
This is what I said in another thread few days ago



Could be way off base & I don't know the guy at all but that's the impression I get from his "sources"

I wouldn't be surprised by this. The thought crossed my mind as well. Odd coincidence that someone gave him numbers for the first two months the Pro was released. Putting the PS4 numbers out there benefited Microsoft much more than Sony. But I digress. That's neither here nor there now.

I just wish we had more concrete data to go by so we can have good discussion again. Completely understand and support NPD's right to protect their business. Just sucks for anyone who had a genuine interest in analyzing and having a healthy, non-console warring debate about the data. Just knowing who won can only carry us so far.
 

Conduit

Banned
In terms of demand I believe Switch will hold well. If Nintendo didn't drop the ball they will score some victories because PS4 isn't a great seller in this period.

Well, we haven't heard nothing from Nintendo in NPD for a very long time. Curious to see what they will say next month.
 
I wouldn't be surprised by this. The thought crossed my mind as well. Odd coincidence that someone gave him numbers for the first two months the Pro was released. Putting the PS4 numbers out there benefited Microsoft much more than Sony. But I digress. That's neither here nor there now.

I just wish we had more concrete data to go by so we can have good discussion again. Completely understand and support NPD's right to protect their business. Just sucks for anyone who had a genuine interest in analyzing and having a healthy, non-console warring debate about the data. Just knowing who won can only carry us so far.

that is honestly not even the main point
hardware unit numbers alone is not really the stuff subscriber pay for.
there is so much more detailed information in those reports, that is way more valuable.

i'm more a believer of the "platform holder just don't want that numbers to be publicity out if it's not on their own terms" theory
 
I never lived this gen described here lol

Holiday always had strong sales compared with the rest of the year by a huge margin.
Well, there has been some consolidation toward the holiday season in the U.S. You're right that it's always been by far the strongest segment of the year, but it's been stronger still during this gen. Here's what I have for numbers (some years missing from gappy data):

Code:
NOV/DEC AS PORTION OF ANNUAL SALES
       PS2
2002   47.3%
2003   44.1%
2004   36.2%
2005   36.6%
2006   43.8%

       Xbox
2002   47.2%
2003   50.6%
2004   43.6%

       GCN
2002   46.4%
2003   58.4%
2004   50.5%
2005   51.8%

[B]AVG OF GEN 6: 46.4%[/B]

       Xbox 360
2006   41.8%
2007   44.0%
2008   48.1%
2009   44.6%
2010   47.8%
2011   46.7%

       PS3
2007   49.4%
2008   31.1%
2009   47.8%
2010   40.1%
2011   40.7%

       Wii
2007   37.1%
2008   41.2%
2009   52.8%
2010   51.3%

[B]AVG OF GEN 7: 44.3%[/B]

       WiiU
2013   58.1%
2014   52.1%
2015   52.2%

       PS4
2014   40.5%
2015   54.4%
2016   52.5%

       Xbox One
2014   57.8%
2015   54.3%
2016   53.1%

[B]AVG OF GEN 8: 52.8%[/B]
 

Welfare

Member
Europe... I don't remember anything from US except GameStop comment that doesn't give any conclusion.

I'm holding a > 500k prediction for March.

Switch is the fastest selling Nintendo launch in the US for the first 5 days. Reggie said this in a Facebook livestream. It is easy to guess it is already >500K. >700K debut is likely.
 

ethomaz

Banned
Switch is the fastest selling Nintendo launch in the US for the first 5 days. Reggie said this in a Facebook livestream. It is easy to guess it is already >500K. >700K debut is likely.
That means > 476k of Wii in 7 days.

Edit - Fixed.
 

ethomaz

Banned
Wii did 476K in 7 days. It was in the November 2006 NPD for one week.

Also what thread is the new tag from?
Yeap 476k... sorry my mistake.

From the Zelda 10/10s fake record... I counted 57 for GTAIV and 49 for Zelda (at time now I guess it has 51) and people started complain that I didn't let them commemorate the (false) accomplishment :D

It was a really fun thread with mods doing jokes and fans thinking they are supporting them... they couldn't accept GTAIV has more 10s than the new Zelda... somebody even said to me GTAIV was multiplatform and Zelda not lol
 
Well somebody sure seems agitated by analysis and logical conjecture. Fun fact: saying people didn't do something after they did exactly that doesn't make it any less true. Multiple people explained the flaws and baseless logical leaps in certain arguments. Shame that this seems to be the only thing that can get thes threads moving anymore.

For the record re: UHD Drive I was merely pointing out that I and others thought it would be a bigger factor than it appears it actually is so far. There were also those explaining that it wasn't as big of a selling point as many seemed to think like Abdiel. It wasn't my intention to stir up a war about the value of SW support versus OS/HW features. I see no point in such a comparison since it essentially impossible to determine the impact such software or features have on the general appeal or sales of HW. Please let's not be sidetracked from genuine discussion and analysis by silly improbable quibbles.

Not in mine only you did. Maybe you forget I'm new here. But in case you were being serious go back and read.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Not in mine only you did. Maybe you forget I'm new here. But in case you were being serious go back and read.

Oh don't worry I dont think anyone is forgetting you are new here.

Its quite humorous seeing you repeatedly tell other members to "read" when you fail to actually address any of the comments people have made in their responses to your posts pointing out the flaws in your logic be they your conclusions on sales or accusations of others "starting console wars" simply because they are debating the impact a given feature has on sales in a sales thread. I mean you even claimed
you and others barely explained anything.
despite having two comprehensive posts responding to your arguments breaking down exactly why they weren't reasonable.

Being up YoY is good but not when the previous year posted incredibly low sales for the first few months of the year. While PS4 was down YoY it also outslold the XB1 by about 50k units or by roughly 33% that month. Last year saw PS4 selling 230k units in January whereas as XB1 sold only 132k. While it's impressive that XB1 was up so much YoY the gap was so large last year that they were still outsold despite PS4 being down. Context is important. Somehow you think a month where PS4 last year saw 405k units sold in comparison to the 248k units of XB1s sold that the PS4 will be down so much YoY and the XB1 will be up so much YoY that it will end up winning the month? There's absolutely nothing to indicate such a dramatic shift in demand.



There are plenty enough tax returns happening in February to boost sales for electronics. Just look at last year's figures. Again CONTEXT. Nobody is saying all tax returns happen in a February.



A ven diagram of people buying a switch at launch and people purchasing an XB1s or PS4 Slim/Pro this late in the game is unlikely to overlap much at all. Main reason? Price/perceived value. Another? Low initial stock shipments from Nintendo. Generally speaking Nintendo appeals to any entirely different market of ppl than the other manufacturers do which is the main reason why their success is very good for the industry as a whole.

I think you mean context. Percentage only tells part of the story. You need the actual sales figures to give it context.
For example:

Paul sells one egg and 5 pickles to Susie one week and then 2 eggs and 4 pickles the next.

Now Paul still sold more pickles than eggs despite his egg sales increasing 100% WoW and his pickle sales declining 20% WoW. Thus % change and trends are only part of the picture it means nothing without the added context of actual sales.



Not to mention the post another member made doing the exact same thing which you seem to deny exists
Looking back it was basically just you.
for some reason :

I'm with Rex on this one for all of the reasons he provided. We could all be wrong of course but there's just nothing that suggests demand for Xbox propelled it high enough to beat PS4 considering the gap between the two in January and last February and content-wise. Realistically, the only question is how much did PS4 outsell Xbox by, not whether it did or not. And that's what I suspect we'll have fun discussing on Thursday. If not, then I'll gladly admit I got it wrong.


Its also worth pointing out that none of these posts were in any way disrespectful or demeaning which cannot be said for many of your responses in this thread:

It's funny you guys are making fun of console wars on had by engaging in console wars.

It may be uhd has helped play a part in current Xbox One sales instead of "winning" . I'd say the S doing well is based on such extra features.

Learn to read, it's clearly one of the reasons the S is doing well. I never said "win" half you people making fun of console wars sure like starting console wars.

How would I have known that if I wasn't here to see people overstating uhd here? Use your head.

I literally just responded to him based on your post, are you even reading?

You sure did escalate things rather quickly. So I guess my question at this point is are you at any point going to actually discuss sales or respond to other people's arguments or should I just expect to continue reading variations of "I know you are but what am I" posts from you for the forseeable future?
 

kyser73

Member
Wow, this thread is going places.

Just to remind the new Xbox fans...

MS started the whole 'preseason' nonsense via a Greenberg tweet back in 2015 when they were losing every month.

It's lack of importance to MS PR reversed last year when they won Jul-Aug NPDs and managed to outsell PS4 for H2 2016 (and FWIW Holiday sales cut the ~250k gained on those months to ~150k, and Jan PS4 sales cut that back again to ~100k).

MS' best selling January is ~+3% hours on previous highest Jan but a good YoY bump, PS4 Jan ~-3.5%.

YoY for Xbox good, but the 'best Jan ever!' claim is on the back of a negligible move up on the previous record.

By March NPD PS4 will have claimed back the lost market share from Jul-Oct, and probably have extended the gap.

While MS may well be seeing some YoY sales growth, any momentum in closing the gap and gaining market share was either illusory or is now spent.
 

allan-bh

Member
While MS may well be seeing some YoY sales growth, any momentum in closing the gap and gaining market share was either illusory or is now spent.

This ship has sailed a long time ago, Xbox One is condemned to sell less than PS4. Only Scorpio can change the standard of the current market.
 

gpn

Member
Lack of good exclusive games has got to be hurting XBox. I feel bad for the XBoxers out there reading about these great, new games for Nintendo and Playstation; they've got to be feeling like Charlie Brown.

IGotARock-xbox_zpsb24k3tyg.jpg
 

RexNovis

Banned
This ship has sailed a long time ago, Xbox One is condemned to sell less than PS4. Only Scorpio can change the standard of the current market.

Scorpio's impact will hinge largely on pricing imo. Both the launch price of Scorpio and whether or not Sony opts to reduce the price of the Pro during its release window.

Even still if all ends up favoring Scorpio at launch with a reasonable price and no discount on the Pro the Pro, despite its relative success going by stock levels and commentary, is showing that these sorts of iterative upgrades are certainly no substitute for the more affordable base models. Its very unlikely that a premium SKU like Scorpio will have the sort of impact required to reverse the existing sales momentum and see MS regaining substantial marketshare.

Lack of good exclusive games has got to be hurting XBox. I feel bad for the XBoxers out there reading about these great, new games for Nintendo and Playstation; they've got to be feeling like Charlie Brown.

Can we please not do the whole console war thing here. You cna go to basically any other thread on the front page for that right now. Theres no need to stir this up in a sales focused thread.
 

gpn

Member
Can we please not do the whole console war thing here. You cna go to basically any other thread on the front page for that right now. Theres no need to stir this up in a sales focused thread.

Not console wars at all. Rave reviews for console exclusive games like Nier Automata, Horizon Zero Dawn and Breath of the Wild have got to be affecting XBox sales.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Not console wars at all. Rave reviews for console exclusive games like Nier Automata, Horizon Zero Dawn and Breath of the Wild have got to be affecting XBox sales.

Of course you're free to ruminate, post your thoughts about and discuss the impact the release of critically successful SW has on HW sales of a given platform and its competitors but this part specifically

I feel bad for the XBoxers out there reading about these great, new games for Nintendo and Playstation; they've got to be feeling like Charlie Brown.

and the accompanying picture were entirely unnecessary for discussion of sales impact. Such statements generally only serve to ignite flame wars that most of us really have no interest in engaging in here.
 

ethomaz

Banned
Scorpio...

Let's be optimistic here.

Next year with Scorpio the XB1 sales increase 50k on slow months and 200k on holidays... that means the sales will still be lower than PS4 in slow months and high than PS4 on holidays.

In resume XB1 won over PS4 in 2018 with 200k more sales overall.

PS4 has over 1.5 million gap.

I don't see how Scorpio can change the XB1 fate... it was already destined to be like that since the launch.
 

blakep267

Member
I don't know about changing fates or anything, but I think that by sheer length of pre-orders it should do more than 200k in its opening month. Whether hat be October or November etc

I mean if it's announced in June at e3, you should be able to get early adopters hyped for it and then there's 5 months to go. Sony showed the pro off at the same time as unveiling a cheaper slim model and they did it at the beginning of the holiday season. I think the more lead time and the more you hype it up the better. Just to clarify I'm not saying it's going to do gangbusters or anything so don't blow it out of proportion
 

RexNovis

Banned
Zhuge had some things to say on the topic of the lack of leaks and the decline in meaningful sales discussion on forums like ours that I feel is relevant to share

Zhuge@Chartz said:
Here is the thing.
The NPD threads posted here and on other forums, such as NeoGAF, have always relied on 'leaked' numbers since 2010 when NPD stopped reporting numbers themselves.

The NPD Group is a research firm that tracks point of sale transactions of Video Games in the US. They are able to account for around 95% of the market and use a propriatary algorithm to account for the remaining 5%. Only paid subscribers are able to access NPD's data release each month and any redistribution of that proprietary and confidential data is illegal without NPD's prior consent.

So in effect, all the 'leaks' posted here over the many years have technically been illegal (Unless NPD posted the data themselves or authorised companies/individuals to release certain bits of data). Right now no one is willing to risk their job, and rightly so, to leak NPD data to a forum so that a few (apologies for this phrase) fanboys can gloat that their preferred plastic box is selling more than another plastic box. The data that NPD distributes is of value to many in the industry and there is a reason they charge for it.

That being said, I'm not going to pretend that I wouldn't want NPD to release more data publicly. High level discussion can happen and has happened in the past through these small 'leaks', which I believe are fairly immaterial to NPD's overall business anyway.
A more transparent games industry from platform holders, publishers, retailers and market researchers is a good thing in my opinion. There are of course reasons why many of the above wouldn't want that, and that's why NPD doesn't release much publicly, but at the same time we're seeing more relevant data being released given the huge change and growth going on in the industry right now.

For example, platform holders and publishers are talking more about about how live service games are performing by sharing engagement and spend metrics. Publishers are also talking about how the shift to digital has increased gross margin percentage. Sony has plenty of data out there about how Network is the driver for platform holders this gen and Microsoft's Xbox Live data agrees with that. There are free services such as SteamSpy and Sensor Tower which track the PC and Mobile market farily accurately. If you look for data on relevant topics of today then you'll find it.

The issue I see is that not many people actually care about discussing all of that. Any time there is a discussion around the above it usually devolves into console wars fairly soon. That's unfortunately why I'm no longer as active as I was in forums like these because any long post I write is ignored or any data I talk about is used for console wars. Do note that I'm not calling out anyone here. I'm just saying that in general it seems that there aren't many people left who geniuinely want to discuss the health and future of the industry anymore.

Anyway. I'm not entirely sure what I wanted to say in this post. I guess what I'm trying to say is that I hope more people who are geniuinely interested in the games industry can have and use data to drive high quality discussions and come to conclusions about the current state and future of the industry. I also hope that high quality discussion of said data doesn't devolve into console wars in every thread like I seem to be seeing these days. Unfortunately I completely understand why many people do 'care' about console wars. I almost went down that path myself once when I was younger.

Can't say I disagree with any of it unfortunately. Hoping the discussion can return to form eventually.


I don't know about changing fates or anything, but I think that by sheer length of pre-orders it should do more than 200k in its opening month. Whether hat be October or November etc

I mean if it's announced in June at e3, you should be able to get early adopters hyped for it and then there's 5 months to go. Sony showed the pro off at the same time as unveiling a cheaper slim model and they did it at the beginning of the holiday season. I think the more lead time and the more you hype it up the better. Just to clarify I'm not saying it's going to do gangbusters or anything so don't blow it out of proportion

Agreed I think it will have a fairly big push right out the gate but sales will likely normalize after the first couple of months and end up in the same ballpark as the Pro imo.
 

Do I need to take screencaps of each page of posts up to your last snark comment? Because I can do that. I think you actually do know you're wrong considering you don't even have the guts to directly address me and made your very snark comment by itself thinking i wouldn't see it.

i would suggest being more upfront and honest.
 
Zhuge had some things to say on the topic

I had originally intended to just take the NPD numbers slightly skew them and make another brand that would have as close to NPD numbers as possible without being NPD numbers, but i realized that plan would likely sent me to court since NPD seems to be the only one doing tracking and can prove it and I can't it would be obvious I actually was just trying to find a loophole to leak their numbers.
 

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
Zhuge had some things to say on the topic of the lack of leaks and the decline in meaningful sales discussion on forums like ours that I feel is relevant to share



Can't say I disagree with any of it unfortunately. Hoping the discussion can return to form eventually.

Yea in the short time I've been here and the even shorter time I've participated in NPD predictions the change is dramatic.

So much so I missed this one, lol. Normally the prediction thread stays on the first page but especially right before the deadline.

I blame NPD.
 

Welfare

Member
I had originally intended to just take the NPD numbers slightly skew them and make another brand that would have as close to NPD numbers as possible without being NPD numbers, but i realized that plan would likely sent me to court since NPD seems to be the only one doing tracking and can prove it and I can't it would be obvious I actually was just trying to find a loophole to leak their numbers.

VGChartzzzz is still a thing.
 

watdaeff4

Member
Would have like to have seen both PS4 and XB1 be up YoY from last year, but alas since there is silence on all fronts, I'm guessing both were down.

@RexNovis - just now getting back to this, but thanks for your opinions on why you think the Slim is what might be the factor that leads to Sony missing it's target. Hopefully with the Pro getting back in stock in retailers and the great games that has been released in Q1 for PS4, it continues a nice upward trend.

The Xbox slim had a good run of keeping the platform up in monthly YoY comparisons, Nov and now Feb were down it appears. IMO, Feb isn't a great sign as the platform IIRC did pretty bad the first half of '16. If it continues to be down, then that's not a great sign. I honestly doubt Scorpio will have that much of an impact on sales.
 

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
You know it's pretty sad situation when we get more numbers from PAL markets than from US. Why can't every bigger country have situation like Japan =/. Three different trackers releasing weekly hardware and software charts for free.
 

watdaeff4

Member
You know it's pretty sad situation when we get more numbers from PAL markets than from US. Why can't every bigger country have situation like Japan =/. Three different trackers releasing free weekly hardware and software charts...

Are there companies in PAL or Japan that collects the data then charges for access to it?

I'm guess no, and that's the bottom line. It is what it is. BTW - not criticizing this practice, just stating facts.
 
Are there companies in PAL or Japan that collects the data then charges for access to it?

I'm guess no, and that's the bottom line. It is what it is. BTW - not criticizing this practice, just stating facts.

I believe that Japanese trackers have also paid options that give you all kind of other neat data. They just also release basic top 30 sw and hw sales for free every week.
 
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