• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Final Bets - Will Switch Outsell PS2?

Final bets - will the Switch outsell PS2?


  • Total voters
    189
  • This poll will close: .

64bitmodels

Reverse groomer.
It doesn't matter it has come close enough at this point with no price decrease EVER compared to the ps2's $99 price point for the last few years of its life driving sells that its a clear winner above t he ps2 in every way. ( sales wise )
even if they didnt beat the PS2 in sales they undoubtedly made more money getting thise close at the same price PLUS online subs and more expensive games.
 
I suspect they're going to continue to sell what they have at full price and then turn production completely over to Switch 2 before its launch. If Switch 2 is backwards compatible, it's all they'll want to sell once it's out.
 
PS2 sales = 155M. There are no estimates involved in this -- that's the official figure. (Throwaway up-estimate comments by senior execs decades later not relevant. Edit: This is incorrect, it looks like it's over 160M!)
 
Last edited:

Puscifer

Member
it depends on whether the sales peter out after switch 2 or not.

though even if that happened I think it's plausible that it could outsell PS2- just 15 million more units to go.
I voted but I think it might depending on if they do a decent sale. The fact switch keeps selling out at stores is pretty wild to me
 

Gallard

Member
"But Noooo, Switch is a handheld! It doesn't count :messenger_loudly_crying:"

These arbitrary restrictions on which sales number should be fair to count will never not be strange to me. By that logic, we should disqualify a good chunk of PS2's sales since many people bought it as a DVD player. It was highly competitive - a better price than standalone DVD players. For you youngins, this was pre-streaming era. DVD was the THING to get after VHS. And let's not forget PS2 had multiple price drops, reaching as low as $99.

In my personal, arbitrary goal posts, only sales at $199 mark and above count. Sorry, PS2, but it looks like you've already been lapped by Switch twice over 🤡 honk honk
 

Woopah

Member
PS2 sales = 155M. There are no estimates involved in this -- that's the official figure. (Throwaway up-estimate comments by senior execs decades later not relevant.)
That's the office figure as of March 2012, but we know it sold millions more after that point.
As a Nintendo fanboy with no great love for PS2, I say counting all the Switch Lite sales is whack.
That's the way console sales have always been calculated, with all SKUs included.
 
then it doesn't really need a price drop does it?

could've worded that better, but the price is hardly a barrier for anyone wanting to buy a Switch these days.
It's a balance of supply & demand, but the price is certainly a barrier for many people that don't own one. It Switch was $150 for example, it would certainly increase sales. There's always that audience of late adopters that don't buy in until something is cheaper and the library is huge and aren't concerned with waiting for the big games that came out 3, 5, 7 years ago.
 

Thief1987

Member
It sold 15 million last year, is forecasted to sell 14 million this year, is #1 in Japan and Asian markets in every tracking period, routinely is #1 in European markets like Germany, Spain, and France, and even when it is not, it is a healthy #2, and is constantly outselling at least Xbox in NA.

Where exactly did sales "fall off a cliff"?
Ok, ok, I hope for your sake it will, as it seems some meaningless numbers mean very much for you.
 
Last edited:

BlackTron

Member
I think the total number is all that matters. Both platforms had factors that helped their sales.

I think it would be harder for Switch to reach PS2's sales because they won't be able to reduce its price as much after its successor comes out.

But if we can just add in all the Switch Lite sales then trying to analyze any other factors just flies out the window.
 

Hudo

Member
If we can move goalposts as we like then I'd like to interject with the notion that the PS2 Slim is not a real PS2 since it can't play FF11. PS2 Slim doesn't count.
 

Woopah

Member
I think it would be harder for Switch to reach PS2's sales because they won't be able to reduce its price as much after its successor comes out.

But if we can just add in all the Switch Lite sales then trying to analyze any other factors just flies out the window.
Hence why I don't see it worth analysing. We just see which one sells more.
 

Pop

Member
If Nintendo announces Switch 2 this year then no

If Nintendo holds off until the end of 2025 then slightly will
 
Last edited:

AngelMuffin

Member
It’s never had an official price cut (which is nuts), so yeah as soon as that happens it will eventually take the top spot.
 
People are forgetting discounting and smaller countries markets. One more holiday season and the remnants of units over the next few years to markets that won't have Switch 2 (or it will be too expensive) will keep it going. 14 million more for FY24 to catch PS2, that is certainly possible even before the Switch 2 release. It's almost guaranteed afterward. I don't think Switch will have a long tail though, considering Nintendo is focused on moving their userbase to the next console.
 

efyu_lemonardo

May I have a cookie?
So ultimately we're left with a theoretical range of 158.6m - 161.8m from Sony's public data and 160m from Jim Ryan.
If these are the best estimates for PS2 lifetime sales, Switch will beat both of them. In fact, based on Nintendo's current projections (which are almost always pessimistic), it's practically impossible for the Switch not to beat PS2. It would have to be discontinued immediately after the successor releases for this to happen. You can quote me.
 
Last edited:

Rat Rage

Member
Not without a significant price drop. Since that's probably not gonna happen, I'd say no. 140+ is still a HUUUGE success.
 

Sleepwalker

Gold Member
I think it will but it will be close. Ultimately doesn't really matter.

Sony made more with the PS4 than the PS2, the switch made more than the PS2 as well.
 

rm082e

Member
I expect them to keep selling the Switch in smaller markets after the Switch 2 is out, so Probably in that 155m-160m range before they end production and the remaining stock sells through. Let's check back on this holiday 2026 and see what the tally is at that point.
 

KungFucius

King Snowflake
This should be population / wealth adjusted, things were very different when PS2 came out.
What the fuck is this nonsense? Are you going to feel bad or something? FFS consoles sold better in the past so someone could cry and say scale it to total console market. The PS2 was a DVD player when they were a thing and semi expensive. How are you going to account for that in your It's not fair to compare BS?
 

Azelover

Titanic was called the Ship of Dreams, and it was. It really was.
160 million, easily.

Although, the PS2 actually sold closer to 170 million. The 155 number is very conservative.
I can't prove it to you, and I don't have the time to argue about it. But I strongly believe it is actually the opposite.

For PS1 and most of PS2's gen, Sony was doing something called production shipments, or manufacturing shipments. Which was different from what Nintendo and Microsoft did. It basically means they have a unit produced.

Around the second half of the generation Sony switched to "normal" shipments. While the PS2 was still selling like hot cakes. These systems were counted as produced one year, which was already very inflated. And once they were shipped to actual retail the sales were counted again.

You can believe whatever you want. I personally don't believe the number is conservative. And lets leave it at that.
 

Trunx81

Member
Isn’t Nintendo that company who took both GB and GBC sales numbers together?
So, a Switch Too will be counted equal.
 
If Switch 2 is going to be around $400, they'd be silly not to keep the 1 around for awhile and drop the price as a budget option.

IIRC the DS(i) was jettisoned soon after the 3DS had its first price drop, cutting the latter down to $170. There will be a much bigger price gap between 1 and 2 when the latter drops.
 
Last edited:

IFireflyl

Gold Member
Ok, so this is what we call a false premise.

Switch Lite is a Switch console, so anything that is a Switch console within the Switch family of devices, is a Switch. A Switch is a Switch is a Switch. Making up arbitrary rules doesn't change the data. Minor functional or cosmetic differences, and a different MSRP than the OG model doesn't stop any of those models from being considered a legitimate sale. Nice try, tho!

Your argument is weak from another angle as well, because even if you wanted to peel the Lite out of the total for some odd reason that doesn't make sense, it's by far the lowest-selling version of the Switch. So doing what you are trying to do doesn't help you very much, if your goal is to somehow argue that Switch sales are lower than they actually are.

A hypothetical PS2 Micro, for example, wouldn't have been excluded from PS2 sales, if it played PS2 games. 🤷‍♂️

Alright, class is over. Go play outside!

While I agree that it's fine that Switch Lite totals are included with Switch totals, I disagree with your rebuttal. If Sony had named the PlayStation PSP a PlayStation 2 Portable (or PlayStation 2 Lite), would we have counted that towards PlayStation 2 sales? To me, it isn't about the naming convention, but rather the intent to be within the same family. The Xbox Series S and X are in the same product line regardless of whether they named one Xbox Lite and the other Xbox Series X. They were intended to be compatible devices.

The PlayStation Portable and PlayStation Vita can play PlayStation 1 games. That doesn't mean we count them towards the OG PlayStation's total sales. That isn't because the naming convention labeled it differently. It was because the intent for the device was not to be a part of the OG PlayStation line.

As an aside, the Nintendo Switch Lite is still called a "Switch", but it can't do the thing that it's named after... switch. That is the one thing that makes me think there's an argument that it doesn't belong. Although it still does function within that same Switch lineup, which is why I would not argue that.

Again, I'm not disagreeing that the Switch Lite should be included in the totals. I'm just saying that it's worth considering when something should be seen as a different device regardless of what a company calls it or says about it.
 
Last edited:

Kataploom

Gold Member
If it stays on the market for one or two years after next FY, bet your ass it will even surpass the additional unofficial 5M that Jimbo got out of nowhere. But I think even the official numbers will be reached by the end of this FY.
 
Yeah I know, but for that reason it won't be quite the same accomplishment to match PS2 sales.
Why? PS2 had multiple SKUs, multiple models. And a lot of people did buy one primarily as an inexpensive DVD/multimedia player. DVD players were prohibitively expensive back in 2000.

Switch just plays videogames. 🤷‍♂️. The argument that somehow you could carve out Switch Lite sales just doesn't hold water, any way you slice it. Not to mention, Switch Lite sells for more than what the PS2 did the majority of it’s lifecycle.
 
Last edited:

BlackTron

Member
Why? PS2 had multiple SKUs, multiple models. And a lot of people did buy one primarily as an inexpensive DVD/multimedia player. DVD players were prohibitively expensive back in 2000.

Switch just plays videogames. 🤷‍♂️. The argument that somehow you could carve out Switch Lite sales just doesn't hold water, any way you slice it. Not to mention, Switch Lite sells for more than what the PS2 did the majority of it’s lifecycle.

PS2 had multiple models but at least they were all home game consoles.

To put it another way. Using your logic, if Sega had somehow magically sold 50 million Nomad units. Then we would need to count Nomad sales in with Genesis sales when comparing it to Super Nintendo. Making SNES look worse. If anyone raises their hand and says "what about comparing portable units to other portable as their own category", some wise guy cuts him off with "only the final number matters!!!!"

Sure PS2 was helped by DVD but Switch was also helped by doubling as a portable device. I'm not docking either system for this, if anything that kinda "balances out". But Switch Lite? No excuse to be there. Compare it to Vita maybe.

Edit: This is actually a poor example, because Nomad actually functions as a game console (TV out). A better example would be if Game Boy just played NES games instead of its own unique library and got as many sales as it did, lacking TV out and all. Would we still compare it to Game Gear for sales, or just lump the sales in with NES when discussing consoles?
 
Last edited:

FStubbs

Member
It won't outsell PS2. PS2 was a near monopoly in its own generation, and became the beneficiary of a weak PS3/360 launch and the Wii that third parties gave spotty support to.

Sony also seems to find more PS2 sales. When Switch hits 150, Sony will claim PS2 sold 170.
 
Last edited:

Robb

Gold Member
It won't outsell PS2. PS2 was a near monopoly in its own generation, and became the beneficiary of a weak PS3/360 launch and the Wii that third parties gave spotty support to.

Sony also seems to find more PS2 sales. When Switch hits 150, Sony will claim PS2 sold 170.
Depends on how you look at it. If they hit their estimate for March 2025 they’ll be at 154M units sold. Then “Switch 2” might release, but even then there’s likely to be 5-10M more units sold of the original Switch (iirc 3DS still sold around 10M after the Switch had been released).

I personally think beating the officially reported/Wikipedia number (155M) is a given at this point. Which is what most people seems to use when they look at this stuff. So it’ll be #1 in the Wiki list of best selling systems by this time next year I think.

And then nerds like us will be able to comment “well, actually Ps2 sold 160M” every time someone brings it up.
 
Top Bottom