[PS4] 218K
[XB1] 200K
Pro: 44K
Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of December to January. This is where comparing weekly averages is better than simple month to month because December is a 5 week month while January is only 4 (except for the odd time where it is 5 weeks such as 2013). I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for January to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.
Also, I will continue to have a Nintendo comparison this month but starting next month I will be dropping Nintendo home consoles until after the Switch launches. I am thinking of bringing back Nintendo with 3DS when the Switch launches but February onward will not have Wii/Wii U comparisons.
Note: The year indicates January, so 2011 is comparing December 2010 and January 2011 and so on.
Code:
2011
Xbox 360 December: 1.86M / 5 = 372,000
Xbox 360 January: 381K / 4 = 95,250
Weekly average down 74%
PS3 December: 1.21M / 5 = 242,000
PS3 January: 267K / 4 = 66,750
Weekly average down 72%
Wii December: 2.36M / 5 = 472,000
Wii January: 319K / 4 = 79,750
Weekly average down 83%
Code:
Notable Events in January
[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Dead Space 2 [1 week] [~265K]
[u]PS3[/u]
LittleBigPlanet 2 [2 weeks] [353K]
DC Universe Online [3 weeks] [~190K]
Dead Space 2 [1 week] [~176K]
Code:
2012
Xbox 360 December: 1.73M / 5 = 346,000
Xbox 360 January: 270K / 4 = 67,500
Weekly average down 80%
PS3 December: 950K / 5 = 190,000
PS3 January: 195K / 4 = 48,750
Weekly average down 74%
Wii December: 1.06M / 5 = 212,000
Wii January: 152K / 4 = 38,000
Weekly average down 82%
Code:
Notable Events in January
N/A
Code:
2013
Xbox 360 December: 1.4M / 5 = 280,000
Xbox 360 January: 281K / 5 = 56,200
Weekly average down 80%
PS3 December: 635K / 5 = 127,000
PS3 January: 201K / 5 = 40,200
Weekly average down 68%
Wii December: 475K / 5 = 95,000
Wii January: 100K / 5 = 20,000
Weekly average down 79%
Wii U December: 460K / 5 = 92,000
Wii U January: 57K / 5 = 11,400
Weekly average down 88%
Code:
Notable Events in January
[u]Xbox 360[/u]
One additional tracking week
[u]PS3[/u]
One additional tracking week
[u]Wii[/u]
One additional tracking week
[u]Wii U[/u]
One additional tracking week
Code:
2014
Xbox 360 December: 643K / 5 = 128,600
Xbox 360 January: 48K / 4 = 12,000
Weekly average down 91%
Xbox One December: 908K / 5 = 181,600
Xbox One January: 143K / 4 = 35,750
Weekly average down 80%
PS3 December: 299K / 5 = 59,800
PS3 January: 54K / 4 = 13,500
Weekly average down 77%
PS4 December: 863K / 5 = 172,600
PS4 January: 271K / 4 = 67,750
Weekly average down 61%
Wii December: 150K / 5 = 30,000
Wii January: 10K / 4 = 2,500
Weekly average down 92%
Wii U December: 481K / 5 = 96,200
Wii U January: 49K / 4 = 12,250
Weekly average down 87%
Code:
Notable Events in January
[u]PS4[/u]
Supply constrained, Demand > Supply
Code:
2015
Xbox 360 December: 309K / 5 = 61,800
Xbox 360 January: 39K / 4 = 9,750
Weekly average down 84%
Xbox One December: 1.297M / 5 = 259,400
Xbox One January: 150K / 4 = 37,500
Weekly average down 86%
PS3 December: 174K / 5 = 34,800
PS3 January: 34K / 4 = 8,500
Weekly average down 76%
PS4 December: 1.065M / 5 = 213,000
PS4 January: 189K / 4 = 47,250
Weekly average down 78%
Wii December: 29K / 5 = 5,800
Wii January: 8K / 4 = 2,000
Weekly average down 66%
Wii U December: 575K / 5 = 115,000
Wii U January: 63K / 4 = 15,750
Weekly average down 86%
Code:
Notable Events in January
[u]Xbox One[/u]
Price raise $50 ($399) January 4th (12 days)
Price drop $50 ($349) January 16th (16 days)
Code:
2016
360/PS3/Wii = Basically dead and no data leaked for January
Xbox One December: 1.376M / 5 = 275,200
Xbox One January: 132K / 4 = 33,000
Weekly average down 88%
PS4 December: 1.582M / 5 = 316,400
PS4 January: 230K / 4 = 57,500
Weekly average down 82%
Wii U December: 463K / 5 = 92,600
Wii U January: 40K / 4 = 10,000
Weekly average down 89%
Code:
Notable Events in January
[u]PS4[/u]
First January after price drop ($349)
Code:
2016 December Weekly Averages
PS4: 1.568M / 5 = 313,600
Xbox One: 1.511M / 5 = 302,200
Code:
Notable Events in January
[u]Xbox One[/u]
Resident Evil 7 [1 week]
[u]PS4[/u]
Price raise $50 ($299) January 1st
First January for PS4 Pro
Resident Evil 7 [1 week]
Notes:
Dead month after the holiday shopping season. For a one to one comparison, December 2011 to January 2012 is the exact same time frame that we have this year (November 27th - December 31st to January 1st - January 28th). Not much else to say besides consumers waiting for tax refunds to begin in February.
Xbox
The Xbox 360 dropped by an average of -82%, with a minimum of -74% (2011) and maximum of -91% (2014). Remove that -91% which appears to be an anomaly and the Xbox 360 dropped an average of 80%.
For the Xbox One, it has had some pretty weak drops going into January. January 2014 was when being priced at $499 showed that Xbox One was going to have trouble, January 2015 had some weird decisions made by Microsoft. They really tried to raise the price back up to $399 after an amazing holiday at $349 for about 2 weeks, and then they dropped the price back to $349. January 2016 then had a massive drop thanks to raising the price back up to $349 after a holiday at $299 and was now at price parity with the PS4, which had its first January at a reduced price of $349. Each January has so far had a worse drop than the last, averaging a drop of 85%, with a minimum of -70% (2014) and maximum of -88% (2016).
Thanks to the launch of the Xbox One S, sales in 2016 improved over comparable months in 2015, besides for November, but did help Xbox One achieve record sales (for the console) of 1.5M in December. The success of XB1S can help the drop in January compared to previous years, but probably not significantly.
Playstation
The PS3 dropped by an average -74% with a minimum of -68% (2013) and maximum of -77% (2014).
PS4 has a pretty clear outlier in 2014 has there were stock shortages for holiday 2013 and early 2014. A drop of -61% is much smaller than the average ~80% drop that every other console usually gets, as seen when PS4 had more reasonable drops of -78% (2015) and 82% (2016).
One thing to note with PS4 is that there is a second console being counted in its results now, the PS4 Pro. The PS4 Pro launched this past November for $399 and this will be its for first January. Below is the Pro's result in December, as well as the weekly average for PS4 sales minus Pro.
Code:
2016 December Weekly Averages
PS4: 1.33M / 5 = 266,000
Pro: 238K / 5 = 47,600
Nintendo
The Wii dropped an average of -80% with a minimum of -66% (2011) and maximum of -92% (2012). Both of those results could be considered outliers on their own but removing them just pushes the average down to -81% so they basically cancel each other out.
Last month I noted that compared to the HD Twins 2, Wii U performed amazingly (relatively) going into December from November. Well... going into January that performance is inverted. Wii U basically crashes, with an average drop of -88% with a minimum of -86% (2015) and maximum of -89% (2016).
Recap
January is a dead month after the holiday season and consumers waiting for tax returns in February.
The biggest January ever recorded back in the 7th was the Wii with 679,200 back in 2009. Second biggest? Wii again with 465,800 in 2010.
The biggest January ever recorded in the 8th is the PS4 with 271,000 in 2014. Second biggest? PS4 again with 230,000 in 2016.