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January 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, February 7th
slavesnyder
Member
Why didn't I get a PM, rex?
That's disappointing! And I thought we were friends...
Shit! He didn't send me one too. Man, guess we aren't important enough for Rex to matter.
Xbox One not only was virtually price matched during that week with a 50$ gift card everywhere but it also included a free game or a free headset or whatever depending on the particular retailer. So indeed we might argue that it's the opposite, Xbox One overall had better deals during the last week of December despite of what was the official RRP.
Also now that we're out of the holiday season, PS4 Pro sales will become way more relevant in the relative split since price tends to become less important and it's more about people with money buying a product that fits their needs and induce them to spend that money. So this will be the first month where the Pro could represent a big chunk of total PS4 sales (30%?) as long as Sony is able to keep up with demand for the Pro because the product is not well stocked.
I would also stop looking into PS4 Slim sales alone because it doesn't make a lot of sense at this point, the value proposition of the PS4 was changed by the existence of the Pro so that people who previously had no choice now could feel more attracted by the high end model. PS4 Pro is basically just a high end PS4 SKU.
About this month it will be interesting to see if RE7 pushed some units with it being a Playstation sided franchise. In any case if the Xbox loses the month it will be hard for them to win other months until a price cut or Scorpio.
Liabe Brave
Member
Just to note, hanspampel thinks it's okay to assume that blacks are natural athletes, so he may not be the best guide to rational thought.
Dash_Riprock
Member
Thats...wow....
Darth Smurf X
Member
[PS4] 220K
[XB1] 215K
[XB1] 215K
MatPiscatella
Member
Here's what I'm curious about for Jan data:
- Jan was one of the bigger months for Japanese developed releases in some time (in terms of share of all releases in the month), curious on platform mix, and to see if PS4 HW got a boost because of it
- How steep is the FFXV month 2 decay. For previous FF games, the month 2 decay has always been among the highest of all titles in the industry. From what I read qualitatitively, I'm hopeful that the decay is lower than previous main FF games.
- Did RE7 have a noticeable impact on PSVR sales
- Is the 3DS run of YoY gains something that will continue into 2017
January is always tricky because holiday returns can sometimes impact the HW data, and pricing is always tricky to predict. Well, and it's generally a month that not a lot can be learned from for trending. Always have to wait for Feb/Mar to really get a read on how the 1H is going to roll.
Anyways.
- Jan was one of the bigger months for Japanese developed releases in some time (in terms of share of all releases in the month), curious on platform mix, and to see if PS4 HW got a boost because of it
- How steep is the FFXV month 2 decay. For previous FF games, the month 2 decay has always been among the highest of all titles in the industry. From what I read qualitatitively, I'm hopeful that the decay is lower than previous main FF games.
- Did RE7 have a noticeable impact on PSVR sales
- Is the 3DS run of YoY gains something that will continue into 2017
January is always tricky because holiday returns can sometimes impact the HW data, and pricing is always tricky to predict. Well, and it's generally a month that not a lot can be learned from for trending. Always have to wait for Feb/Mar to really get a read on how the 1H is going to roll.
Anyways.
michaelius
Banned
[PS4] 232k
[XB1] 198k
[XB1] 198k
The way I see it I think it'll be a great SW month for PlayStation but I think most anyone who would be interested in titles like those that released this month would have probably picked up their HW long ago or on the release of FFXV.
I actually expect it to be around the same as XIII. I think FF has an avid fanbase that will support these titles like no other but I'm not really seeing FFXV making the sort of traction outside of that fanbase to ensure the longer tail sales seen with some of the other titles in its relative sell space.
I was under the impression that PSVR was still relatively stock constrained. I know it is here in Japan. If not then I could see PSVR getting a modest bump of ~30% due to interest from the most avid of RE fans
I think 3DS is at a price point now that is low enough that the regular exposure a wider audience has to their IP on mobile will help carry it to a YOY increase for the first few months of the year with another big boost to occur every time a new mobile title is released. I don't really see the Switch stealing away the sort of audience that is currently buying a 3DS at such low cost.
I think this January can be a bit more telling than most due to some conflicting theories about 3DS and XB1S momentum and whether or not they will carry over into the new year. At the very least I think it will give us some idea of what to expect from these platforms YoY in the coming months.
Well first of all saying "If this guy is just another alt account as ______ has said he is how the hell has he not been banned yet? His antics in NPD threads irk me" is not asking for other people to help me get you banned but that's all besides the point. The point which you completely neglected to address: you are giving yourself random margins of error do you can later go back and be smug about how close you were. In fact you've done just that when you were nowhere near being close to the actual predicted values (see November results thread) and yes I find that petty and gross. I think most anybody with any sense of shame would too.
The fact of the matter is you come into NPD threads flouting a blatant bias, bragadociously sharing information given to you in confidence and altering the long agreed upon rules to suit you. Yet despite all this you have somehow convinced yourself that you have some kind of moral high ground? Whatever you are clearly not worth the time or mental effort required to take you task for your shenanigans.
Can't say I'm particularly surprised but hey what can you do. Clearly his antics haven't been egregious enough to warrant a response.
It was part of an ongoing conversation and frankly y'all have far better things to do with your time. We all do honestly. I just find the smugness particularly irksome.
CorporateClown
Member
[PS4] 211k
[XB1] 180k
[XB1] 180k
While I agree that we are likely to see Pro have amuch larger share of total sales outside the very budget minded holiday shopping period I doubt very seriously it will account for 30% of total sales outside of the launch of a title like Horizion that has been heavily associated with and advertised for the Pro if it has some sort of bundle available. I could certainly see it being somehwere in the realm of 20-24% of total sales this month though. Still a sizable increase form the holiday season but accounting for the lower demand that normally accompanies such a larger price tag. That said the 50$ price bump the Slim received in January could skew the consumer value sufficiently back in the Pro's favor to see a larger share than would otherwise be present.
Has RE post 2 ever been a HW pushing franchise? I remember that RE4 for GameCube was touted as the third party exclusive that would dramatically boost GameCube sales but then ended up not really having much of an effect on sales at all only to then be ported to PS2 and sell far more copies there. I could see it pushing some particularly avid fans to pick up a PSVR for the real experience but I can't see that extending to PS4 hardware in general when it is also available day and date on PC.
Sangetsu-II
Member
If someone in this thread could tell us PSVR sales numbers maybe this would matter >.>
Edit:
[PS4] 215K
[XB1] 180K
[PS4] 218K
[XB1] 172k
PS4 Pro: 39k
I expect XB1 to have its strongest January ever due both to the strong performance/branding of the XB1S and a hold over from the swell of sales we saw in what was the most successful December LTD for the platform sales wise. I also expect that PS4 will have a very strong January off the back of Pro sales helping to stave off some of the drop we would normally see coming from December. I expect the Pro will account for somewhere between 20 and 22% of total PS4 sales for the month of January and that those sales will represent the majority of the sales gap between the two competing platforms.
[XB1] 172k
PS4 Pro: 39k
I expect XB1 to have its strongest January ever due both to the strong performance/branding of the XB1S and a hold over from the swell of sales we saw in what was the most successful December LTD for the platform sales wise. I also expect that PS4 will have a very strong January off the back of Pro sales helping to stave off some of the drop we would normally see coming from December. I expect the Pro will account for somewhere between 20 and 22% of total PS4 sales for the month of January and that those sales will represent the majority of the sales gap between the two competing platforms.
Just gotta say, imaginary numbers are fun!
Primethius
Banned
[PS4] 210K
[XB1] 190K
[XB1] 190K
Unknown?
Member
All I see is him saying white people have to train harder which is putting down people of Caucasian origin. How did you get anything about black people out of that?! Still your point still stands, a terrible generalization.
slavesnyder
Member
Question:
Little Billie gets a PS4 for christmas. Let's neither debate why this little ugly brat, that never contributed anything remarkable to our society, is getting something of this value and me not, nor if it's responsible to lead innocent (aka stupid) children on the path into an eco-system where you cannot change gamertags and games only exist in announcements. Nevertheless the gift represents an acceptable worth in money to show the parent's affection to the fruit of their love (14 years ago, and there was alcohol involved but still). So be grateful you little fuck.
But little Billie is leading a secret life as an avant-garde cyberwizzard and is indoctrinated by ruthless propaganda on some near-darknet-edgy internet forums, where he still believes he got friends, but in fact it's only some alt accounts, proclaiming the all-new, all-shiny PS4 Pro is the true console to own to savour the miracles of checkerboard rendering. December went by and a new year raises it's shiny head of hope and promises and better results in the sales estimates, starting with January (which shouldn't come as a surprise). And after endless tantrums, tears and psychological pressure (because all the cool kids, who are in fact just consumist sheep, have one) and a near-divorce experience, daddy finally finds the receipt (which is a miracle per se) and replaces one un-back-loving piece of plastic by another one, just with three layers of un-back-loving plastic and a power consumption equal to Albuquerque.
Don't be sad for Billie or his poor dad who deserved better and should have taken other decisions in his life, or Billie's sister who is so irrelevant and boring that she isn't even mentioned in this text. Let's better concentrate on the question.
Will this console be counted by the data kraken of the National Purchase Diary?
Little Billie gets a PS4 for christmas. Let's neither debate why this little ugly brat, that never contributed anything remarkable to our society, is getting something of this value and me not, nor if it's responsible to lead innocent (aka stupid) children on the path into an eco-system where you cannot change gamertags and games only exist in announcements. Nevertheless the gift represents an acceptable worth in money to show the parent's affection to the fruit of their love (14 years ago, and there was alcohol involved but still). So be grateful you little fuck.
But little Billie is leading a secret life as an avant-garde cyberwizzard and is indoctrinated by ruthless propaganda on some near-darknet-edgy internet forums, where he still believes he got friends, but in fact it's only some alt accounts, proclaiming the all-new, all-shiny PS4 Pro is the true console to own to savour the miracles of checkerboard rendering. December went by and a new year raises it's shiny head of hope and promises and better results in the sales estimates, starting with January (which shouldn't come as a surprise). And after endless tantrums, tears and psychological pressure (because all the cool kids, who are in fact just consumist sheep, have one) and a near-divorce experience, daddy finally finds the receipt (which is a miracle per se) and replaces one un-back-loving piece of plastic by another one, just with three layers of un-back-loving plastic and a power consumption equal to Albuquerque.
Don't be sad for Billie or his poor dad who deserved better and should have taken other decisions in his life, or Billie's sister who is so irrelevant and boring that she isn't even mentioned in this text. Let's better concentrate on the question.
Will this console be counted by the data kraken of the National Purchase Diary?
MatPiscatella
Member
December (assuming the dad of the spawn purchased said box in December): +1 PS4
January: -1 PS4 for the return
January: +1 PS4 Pro
December still gets the "credit" for the unit, as the return of the old unit and offsetting replacement of the Pro both occur in January.
slavesnyder
Member
So, as we put ps4 and pro in one basket, the ps4 will not count a sale in january here for our betting game.
Thanks for the answer, mat. Very kind.
hanspampel
Banned
he is on a witch-hunt and ideology or race war. something like that, i don't know.
he posted that comment already in 4 different topics and is constantly trying to defame me over a harmless post, no other person on this forum cares about. some people just try desperately to spin postings so they can find them offensive:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost...&postcount=448
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost...&postcount=913
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost...&postcount=582
what i was simply saying: when you're the underdog in a competition, winning is even more of an accomplishment.
when you're white you're the underdog in a 100m dash or endurance race
when you're a women you're the underdog in a chess tournament
when you're 2 weight classed below, you're the underdog in a fight
when you're above 30 you're the underdog in gymnastics competitions
if someone does not agree with that or even find it offensive, fine. everyone is allowed to express his opinion. i personally find it ludicrous, because that is just the way it is. if you name it or not doesn't make a difference or anyone a racist, sexist and someone who discriminate others.
what is definitely not okay, is to take this bullshit out in several other threads, that have nothing to do with that topics, to derails them and be a madness fanatic
and i prefer to not take this discussion here any further.
but as he will post that probably again in a different topic, i maybe have to post this over and over again
why exactly did you bold just those 2 parts and not the other?
but again. this is not the right topic to discuss those things. and i won't go further into this here.
Primethius
Banned
What the actual fuck?
slavesnyder
Member
Caucasian skinny women over 30 are the underdoggest.
Chocolate & Vanilla
Fuck Strawberry
Primethius
Banned
Cause you doubled down on your previous statement with casual sexism like it was nothing.
MatPiscatella
Member
Some retailers had negative sales of Wii U that Jan. Was a very strange time.
slavesnyder
Member
hasn't changed much since then.
Chocolate & Vanilla
Fuck Strawberry
[PS4] 190k
[XB1] 170k
Actually going to try and last a whole year this time instead of stopping after 4 or 5 months
[XB1] 170k
Actually going to try and last a whole year this time instead of stopping after 4 or 5 months
MatPiscatella
Member
You're right. Ugh.
Lmao
Don't worry the Switch is on the horizion and I dont see how it wont be considerably less dire for Nintendo which is good news for everyone. A strong Nintendo is important to the future health of the dedicated console video game market. Here's hoping they knock it out of the park.
Edit: NVM Welfare's right. Not worth it.
You're not wrong... If only. I miss Sega's arcade inspired influence so much.
Chobel
Member
archnemesis
Member
[PS4] 220K
[XB1] 190K
[XB1] 190K
astrogamer
Member
Feels a bit weird to predict on just two things
[PS4] 205k
[XB1] 187k
[PS4] 205k
[XB1] 187k
Cthulhu_Steev
Member
Lol, it was all worth it for this.
Ravage_Hydra
Member
[PS4] 241k
[XB1] 201k
[XB1] 201k
MatPiscatella
Member
A healthy Console gaming market cannot be sustained by two platforms with a homogeneity among releases. A market this size cannot be sustained only by the core niche.
So yes, a successful Switch would significantly improve the short and mid-term outlook.
On the longer-term, things get much more murky. I'm fairly confident we'll get another round of consoles in 2019-2020, but after that, well, no one knows.
If the Switch does not perform well after the initial enthusiast push, well, then you have a demographic problem that exacerbates the kid and teen markets still being overwhelmingly mobile/tablet focused not transitioning to console. Because, right now, these demographics are not moving to console in enough numbers to sustain the audience.
Anyways, yes, a lot is riding on the Switch.
I look forward to the dismissive hand-waving from the core niche market, that is the primary (only?) market currently being served, to say that consoles are fine now (which they are) and will always be so (which is much more in question).
