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[RexNovis]

Thanks for the insight but just real quick, when you mention PS4 do you mean PS4 with Pro included or only the non Pro models?

Also, how is the CoD bundle doing? Doesn't seem to be doing well at other retailers.

That wouldn't surprise me at all about the CoD bundle. I don't think anyone expected such a sharp decline for the series to accompany the release of Infinite Warfare. SO it makes sense that a bundle with such an undesirable CoD would in turn be rather undesirable. I never would've expected that it would push less HW monthly than UC4 bundles prior to its release but with the way the market has responded to the game it makes sense. Its a shame that its the only other bundle on offer currently for the HW. There are so many other games that have either recently come out or are coming out soon that could benefit greatly from the exposure that comes from a dedicated bundle. I continue to be unimpressed with the way SCEA handles their bundles. They seem to constantly drop the ball when it comes to offering customers bundles with appealing and varied titles recently. With the heavy hitters for which they have marketing partnerships or investment in coming out at the end of this year I hope they step their game up and turn things around.

Hey Welfare -

I always mean all relevant SKUs for the total system side, so the Pro is included in my calculations for the PS4. The split still definitely weighs very heavily in favor of the slim model, but at the same time, it's seen good word of mouth and consistent movement through the month on the Pro side of things, in terms of split on those side.

As far as CoD Bundle goes, we're seeing it steadily replacing the Uncharted SKU, and picking up its own momentum. Not sure why it's staying so neglected on Amazon, do they have price exceptions applied to it that aren't touching the CoD SKU?

So are the UC4 bundles getting restocked or are they being phased out? Its bizarre to me how OK SCEA seems with the idea of only having one core bundle SKU available.

Have you heard any word on new SKUs/Bundles coming to market anytime soon? I would assume they plan to have a Horizon bundle at the very least but its been totally quiet on the marketing front as far as bundles go.

 

[Welfare]

Hey Welfare -

I always mean all relevant SKUs for the total system side, so the Pro is included in my calculations for the PS4. The split still definitely weighs very heavily in favor of the slim model, but at the same time, it's seen good word of mouth and consistent movement through the month on the Pro side of things, in terms of split on those side.

As far as CoD Bundle goes, we're seeing it steadily replacing the Uncharted SKU, and picking up its own momentum. Not sure why it's staying so neglected on Amazon, do they have price exceptions applied to it that aren't touching the CoD SKU?

Thank you.

Not sure just how involved you are on the store floor but are you seeing a good amount of new consumers buying the Pro instead of existing members trading up to the Pro? In the UK Sony were seeing 40% of Pro purchases being those that never touched the PS4 before, so it would be interesting to hear some perspective from Best Buy.

Also that is interesting to hear about the CoD bundle. I don't really know the situation about Amazon but it does seem like Sony are pushing the bundle more. There is now the Walmart exclusive White PS4 slim CoD bundle and near the end of the month Target will be doing a $50 off promo for the CoD bundle.

 

[Obliterator]

Also new prediction, lots of statement about RE7 being a bomba / doomed in NPD thread due to it being significantly down from RE6 (Which a huge part of that will be the 1 week vs 4 weeks of tracking)

 

[ethomaz]

Pro starting to be sold out in US like happened in Japan and EU since December?

 

[onemanasylum]

That wouldn't surprise me at all about the CoD bundle. I don't think anyone expected such a sharp decline for the series to accompany the release of Infinite Warfare. SO it makes sense that a bundle with such an undesirable CoD would in turn be rather undesirable. I never would've expected that it would push less HW monthly than UC4 bundles prior to its release but with the way the market has responded to the game it makes sense. Its a shame that its the only other bundle on offer currently for the HW. There are so many other games that have either recently come out or are coming out soon that could benefit greatly from the exposure that comes from a dedicated bundle. I continue to be unimpressed with the way SCEA handles their bundles. They seem to constantly drop the ball when it comes to offering customers bundles with appealing and varied titles recently. With the heavy hitters for which they have marketing partnerships or investment in coming out at the end of this year I hope they step their game up and turn things around.



So are the UC4 bundles getting restocked or are they being phased out? Its bizarre to me how OK SCEA seems with the idea of only having one core bundle SKU available.

Have you heard any word on new SKUs/Bundles coming to market anytime soon? I would assume they plan to have a Horizon bundle at the very least but its been totally quiet on the marketing front as far as bundles go.

I do agree with this, it seems at times SCEA are asleep at the wheel compared to the EU with regards to bundles, their strategy in the US ...is odd to say the least.

 

[sense]

That wouldn't surprise me at all about the CoD bundle. I don't think anyone expected such a sharp decline for the series to accompany the release of Infinite Warfare. SO it makes sense that a bundle with such an undesirable CoD would in turn be rather undesirable. I never would've expected that it would push less HW monthly than UC4 bundles prior to its release but with the way the market has responded to the game it makes sense. Its a shame that its the only other bundle on offer currently for the HW. There are so many other games that have either recently come out or are coming out soon that could benefit greatly from the exposure that comes from a dedicated bundle. I continue to be unimpressed with the way SCEA handles their bundles. They seem to constantly drop the ball when it comes to offering customers bundles with appealing and varied titles recently. With the heavy hitters for which they have marketing partnerships or investment in coming out at the end of this year I hope they step their game up and turn things around.



So are the UC4 bundles getting restocked or are they being phased out? Its bizarre to me how OK SCEA seems with the idea of only having one core bundle SKU available.

Have you heard any word on new SKUs/Bundles coming to market anytime soon? I would assume they plan to have a Horizon bundle at the very least but its been totally quiet on the marketing front as far as bundles go.

I mean, it is very possible, scea has a deal in place with activision in return for exclusive content to be a part of a base PS4 bundle outside the holiday season so just after Christmas. I feel like destiny 2 will have an exclusive white PS4 pro bundle just like the first one. People will likely see a lot of pro bundles towards the end of the year. Rdr2 will probably have pro and standard black bundle. Star Wars will be special edition limited stuff. Cod will be standard after the holidays. Black Friday will be horizon instead of uc4 etc...

 

[allan-bh]

[PS4] 200k
[XB1] 170k

 

[BlackBuzzard]

Skipped most of last year, but im in this year.

[PS4] 222k
[XB1] 157k

 

[pitseleh]

[PS4] 240k
[XB1] 175k

 

[Thorrgal]

[PS4] 222k
[XB1] 210k

 

[Hydrargyrus]

[PS4] 225K
[XB1] 168K

 

[skedar897]

[PS4] 231K
[XB1] 192K

 

[jroc74]

[PS4] 215K
[XB1] 180K

 

[fbutron]

[PS4] 185k
[XB1] 130k

First year as participant =D

 

[Abdiel]

That wouldn't surprise me at all about the CoD bundle. I don't think anyone expected such a sharp decline for the series to accompany the release of Infinite Warfare. SO it makes sense that a bundle with such an undesirable CoD would in turn be rather undesirable. I never would've expected that it would push less HW monthly than UC4 bundles prior to its release but with the way the market has responded to the game it makes sense. Its a shame that its the only other bundle on offer currently for the HW. There are so many other games that have either recently come out or are coming out soon that could benefit greatly from the exposure that comes from a dedicated bundle. I continue to be unimpressed with the way SCEA handles their bundles. They seem to constantly drop the ball when it comes to offering customers bundles with appealing and varied titles recently. With the heavy hitters for which they have marketing partnerships or investment in coming out at the end of this year I hope they step their game up and turn things around.



So are the UC4 bundles getting restocked or are they being phased out? Its bizarre to me how OK SCEA seems with the idea of only having one core bundle SKU available.

Have you heard any word on new SKUs/Bundles coming to market anytime soon? I would assume they plan to have a Horizon bundle at the very least but its been totally quiet on the marketing front as far as bundles go.

Thank you.

Not sure just how involved you are on the store floor but are you seeing a good amount of new consumers buying the Pro instead of existing members trading up to the Pro? In the UK Sony were seeing 40% of Pro purchases being those that never touched the PS4 before, so it would be interesting to hear some perspective from Best Buy.

Also that is interesting to hear about the CoD bundle. I don't really know the situation about Amazon but it does seem like Sony are pushing the bundle more. There is now the Walmart exclusive White PS4 slim CoD bundle and near the end of the month Target will be doing a $50 off promo for the CoD bundle.

I mean, it is very possible, scea has a deal in place with activision in return for exclusive content to be a part of a base PS4 bundle outside the holiday season so just after Christmas. I feel like destiny 2 will have an exclusive white PS4 pro bundle just like the first one. People will likely see a lot of pro bundles towards the end of the year. Rdr2 will probably have pro and standard black bundle. Star Wars will be special edition limited stuff. Cod will be standard after the holidays. Black Friday will be horizon instead of uc4 etc...

Okay! So to all three of you discussing the bundle situation, I wanted to reply to all of you and give my thoughts on this.

Frequently in the past I've felt frustrated when we've been inundated with an abundance of bundles, especially on the ms side. They often felt like they were throwing things at the wall to see what would stick, but also meant a lot of extra inventory management on our side. It can mean options for customers, which is great, but often it comes down to one or two options selling the lion's share, and a few others sitting around until we are given retailer credit to discount then heavily to make them go away. More recently, they had less over all models, with some minor variation in the SKUs. Better planning.

On the Sony side here in the US, we're really only getting a few specific bundles at any given time. Scooby tends to roll out a new one when one is rolling off, so inventory naturally phases itself out of our distribution centers. Now this means that Sony regulates those bundles very consistently around our districts, rarely without stock. And also gauged pretty well to effective bundles in general.

Over in the EU, they have more bundles being made, because the EU is a much more diverse series of smaller markets, I feel, so they're catering to that spectrum, trying to adapt to their base there. That's entirely my perception from retail, of course. Would having more bundles be welcome here in the US? Depends entirely on what and when. Being swamped with them isn't appealing either.

My two cents.

 

[Welfare]

Less than 10 minutes remaining to make/edit predictions.

 

[vivekTO]

Soo.. When will the results come out??

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Soo.. When will the results come out??

Tomorrow around 5-6PM EST.

 

[vivekTO]

Tomorrow around 5-6PM EST.

Thanks.

 

[RexNovis]

Okay! So to all three of you discussing the bundle situation, I wanted to reply to all of you and give my thoughts on this.

Frequently in the past I've felt frustrated when we've been inundated with an abundance of bundles, especially on the ms side. They often felt like they were throwing things at the wall to see what would stick, but also meant a lot of extra inventory management on our side. It can mean options for customers, which is great, but often it comes down to one or two options selling the lion's share, and a few others sitting around until we are given retailer credit to discount then heavily to make them go away. More recently, they had less over all models, with some minor variation in the SKUs. Better planning.

On the Sony side here in the US, we're really only getting a few specific bundles at any given time. Scooby tends to roll out a new one when one is rolling off, so inventory naturally phases itself out of our distribution centers. Now this means that Sony regulates those bundles very consistently around our districts, rarely without stock. And also gauged pretty well to effective bundles in general.

Over in the EU, they have more bundles being made, because the EU is a much more diverse series of smaller markets, I feel, so they're catering to that spectrum, trying to adapt to their base there. That's entirely my perception from retail, of course. Would having more bundles be welcome here in the US? Depends entirely on what and when. Being swamped with them isn't appealing either.

My two cents.

Well yea don't get me wrong having 5+ separate SKUs available at one time is overkill in anything but he holiday rush season but surely you can see the merit behind having bundles that appeal to more mass market tastes than just UC4. I think it's a weak value add for most mass market gamers not only for it's lack of mass appeal but also for it being the 4th entry in an existing series in comparison to say a new IP or a title with broader market appeal. It's fine to have UC4 as a bundle option but they really need to have additional options that appeal to a broader spectrum of the gaming audience to compliment it. That doesn't necessarily mean loads of bundles it just means a choice between 2 or 3 different bundled games for wider appeal.

I guess I just find it frustrating to see SIEA laying it so safe and cost cutting by relying on UC4 to carry them as their core bundle. There are such a wide variety of games available that they could really make some compelling offers for more consumers especially the family friendly crowd and I feel like their focus on keeping costs down and profits up is hindering their sales potential in the market.

 

[donny2112]

Soo.. When will the results come out??

1. OP. (Teach a man to fish and all that.)
2. What comes out on Thursday is only to subscribers. We may or may not get anything out of it.
3. Next Thursday is the official NPD release with physical+digital* software totals.and the monthly PR statements.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

So yeah, probably getting ready to replace the UC4 bundle with Horizon given the date this promotion ends.

 

[GifGafIsTheBestGaf]

a new bunduru in the Horizon, huh ^^

1. OP. (Teach a man to fish and all that.)
2. What comes out on Thursday is only to subscribers. We may or may not get anything out of it.
3. Next Thursday is the official NPD release with physical+digital* software totals.and the monthly PR statements.

lol

 

[donny2112]

NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Jan-2017

1. PS4 - 208K
2. XB1 - 176K

 

[CosmicQueso]

Guessing the XOne forecast is a bit aggressive. But it seems like a pretty good prediction this month.

 

[slavesnyder]

So yeah, probably getting ready to replace the UC4 bundle with Horizon given the date this promotion ends.

It's a good and long overdue move as they clearly have too many different bundles flying around in the wild. It's never a good idea to confuse consumers with too many options.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

It's a good and long overdue move as they clearly have too many different bundles flying around in the wild. It's never a good idea to confuse consumers with too many options.

I think they are just ready to give Horizon the spotlight. It being their next big IP and all. UC4 isn't too far from being a year old.

 

[Welfare]

If Horizon even gets a bundle it will be a limited variant at a higher price. CoD is the mainstream $299 (soon to be $249) bundle.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

If Horizon even gets a bundle it will be a limited variant at a higher price. CoD is the mainstream $299 (soon to be $249) bundle.

I figure it will just replace the UC4 bundle but we'll see. CoD isn't presented as the main bundle in that above image, for example.

 

[slavesnyder]

If Horizon even gets a bundle it will be a limited variant at a higher price. CoD is the mainstream $299 (soon to be $249) bundle.

This really is an interesting question. What do they do with horizon as a bundle.
Before I would have bet they do the first Pro bundle with it to make this a showcase tite for the showcase console. Now I am not so sure.
Maybe they just go for numbers and also follow the uncharted logic: It's our game so we save a few bucks on the bundle.
Third option: A PS4 deluxe bundle with some fancy design, second controller and whatnot (like they did with star wars)

Bundling with a normal PS4 is the highest risk and a real sign of confidence in a new IP without any franchise support. because if they have so few bundles, these have to hit hard as they are created to appeal to the masses and sell huge.

 

[Papacheeks]

It's a good and long overdue move as they clearly have too many different bundles flying around in the wild. It's never a good idea to confuse consumers with too many options.

How many bundles are there? Only ones I'v seen for playstation this past holiday was Uncharted 4, and Infinite warfare?

Unless I'm missing something?

 

[Kill3r7]

This really is an interesting question. What do they do with horizon as a bundle.
Before I would have bet they do the first Pro bundle with it to make this a showcase tite for the showcase console. Now I am not so sure.
Maybe they just go for numbers and also follow the uncharted logic: It's our game so we save a few bucks on the bundle.
Third option: A PS4 deluxe bundle with some fancy design, second controller and whatnot (like they did with star wars)

Bundling with a normal PS4 is the highest risk and a real sign of confidence in a new IP without any franchise support. because if they have so few bundles, these have to hit hard as they are created to appeal to the masses and sell huge.

I say Pro is the way to go. Sony gets to showcase their most powerful console with arguably the best looking game on the market. Also, they don't have to take as much of hit on their bottom line by selling a brand new game with a console on sale.

 

[donny2112]

How many bundles are there? Only ones I'v seen for playstation this past holiday was Uncharted 4, and Infinite warfare?

Unless I'm missing something?

Spoiler

It's a commentary on XB1's 12 dozen different bundles or so.

 

[Stanng243]

Where is my pr? I need to start driving soon.

 

[Toki767]

Where is my pr? I need to start driving soon.

I imagine if Xbox hasn't tweeted anything by now, that means PS4 sold more.

 

[Welfare]

PS4 #1 down YoY XB1 best January yet

PS4: <230K
XB1: >150K

http://venturebeat.com/2017/02/09/x...he-u-s-but-playstation-4-still-won-the-month/

 

[blakep267]

Called the PS4 being down yoy continuing the trend. Wonder what the gap is. Aside from November, the Xbox has be up yoy since the launch of the S

 

[allan-bh]

PS4 #1 down YoY XB1 best January yet

PS4: <230K
XB1: >150K

http://venturebeat.com/2017/02/09/x...he-u-s-but-playstation-4-still-won-the-month/

Pretty much the expected.

 

[slavesnyder]

Pretty much the expected.

No alarms and no surprises

 

[3rdamention]

"Xbox Game hours grew 21 percent"



I love PR...

 

[RexNovis]

Looks like XB1 is not only up YOY but also had the biggest January ever for the console as I expected.

Thanks to continued support by our fans, 2017 is off to a strong start as Xbox One game hours grew 21 percent year-over-year,” Mike Nichols, corporate vice president of Xbox Marketing, noted in a statement sent to GamesBeat. “In addition, in the U.S., Xbox One had its best January to date and was the only eighth generation console that saw growth in January compared to the prior year according to NPD Group. Team Xbox is committed to delivering the best gaming experiences for our fans.”

Source

Very good news for MS despite the ranking. The positive sales trend for XB1 post XB1S release looks to be continuing in 2017 unabated. Will be interesting to see just how much of an increase they had YoY and whether it corresponds to the YoY growth we saw in 2016.

I originally didn't expect to see PS4 down YoY with the addition of the Pro SKU post holiday season but after thinking about it I ended up adjusting my predictions down a bit. I'm guessing I still ended up being over though.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

I mean, it is good that X1S has helped X1 be up YoY (by how much?) but "biggest January" doesn't mean much considering X1 has performed quite poorly in January since launch.

How has X1 done in January of each year?

 

[Unknown?]

I mean, it is good that X1S has helped X1 be up YoY (by how much?) but "biggest January" doesn't mean much considering X1 has performed quite poorly in January since launch.

How has X1 done in January of each year?

Yeah X1 has always done poorly in January. Doubt they cracked 200k.

 

[freefornow]

Cleary if Sony weren't supply constrained with the Pro they would have had significant growth.

Spoiler

Am i doing it right?

 

[dabig2]

I mean, it is good that X1S has helped X1 be up YoY (by how much?) but "biggest January" doesn't mean much considering X1 has performed quite poorly in January since launch.

How has X1 done in January of each year?

January 2014:
PS4 ~= 280K
XB1 ~= 145K
PS4 almost doubles XB1 here

January 2015:
PS4 ~= 193k
XB1: ~= 153k
This is after MS winning Nov and Dec with the price cut/exclusives

January 2016:
PS4 ~= 230k
XB1: ~= 132k

So yeah, XB1 has done pretty bad in January. So it's a good sign for MS that they've at least had their best January in 4 years, in that there's nowhere else to go but up (unless you're the Wii U). I think we'll see something a gap closer to 2015 then if PS4 is under 230K and XB1 is above 153K.

Bundles for the PS4 last year were insane so I'm not surprised to see some kind of drop-off here. $400 Pro ain't going to move many systems in January. Though I wonder if RE:7 and Horizon hype coupled with tax refund season could sell a few more Pros.

 

[MatPiscatella]

How are some of you saying "sales were bad" or "sales were good" given available information?

How are you even defining "good" and "bad"? And how can the conversation be constructive when everyone's definition of "good" and "bad" will be different as the terms are so qualitative?

And how can anyone default to YoY growth being "bad" without some additional context?

"Xbox Game hours grew 21 percent"

I love PR...

No offense, and I don't mean to call you out personally, but this kind of thing is a bit ridiculous in the 2017 market. Look at ATVI's earnings call yesterday. What do they discuss? Active users. Why? Because engagement is the planning currency of the market now. HW unit sales only matter as a leading indicator of what player engagement might become. A unit of HW no longer has a SW $ value assigned to it, at least not one that any planner will take seriously. Not all users are equal in terms of market opportunity, engagement is a much better correlation metric to potential revs. The engagement information that is now presented in earnings calls and other announcements is far more useful for estimating value.

 

[Thorrgal]

How are some of you saying "sales were bad" or "sales were good" given available information?

How are you even defining "good" and "bad"? And how can the conversation be constructive when everyone's definition of "good" and "bad" will be different as the terms are so qualitative?

And how can anyone default to YoY growth being "bad" without some additional context?



No offense, and I don't mean to call you out personally, but this kind of thing is a bit ridiculous in the 2017 market. Look at ATVI's earnings call yesterday. What do they discuss? Active users. Why? Because engagement is the planning currency of the market now. HW unit sales only matter as a leading indicator of what player engagement might become. A unit of HW no longer has a SW $ value assigned to it, at least not one that any planner will take seriously. Not all users are equal in terms of market opportunity, engagement is a much better correlation metric to potential revs. The engagement information that is now presented in earnings calls and other announcements is far more useful for estimating value.

What is a bit funny is that they disclose all this data but they don't tell us total unit sales anymore. And next month if the hours go down they will speak about some other number. I can understand some people having a hard time taking them seriously.

What I'd like to know is not only the total number of units sold but how much did they make per unit, and the same with Sony
, how much they sell and how much they make per slim and per pro, Discounting bundles, marketing costs etc

We won't see that so we are just playing silly (and fun) games with the predictions, but the pr deparments are also playing silly games with us, and we should be able to call them on it.

Just the worthless 2cents of a long time gamer

 

[RexNovis]

How do y'all see Nioh and Halo Wars 2 selling this month? With the stock issues Nioh is having without knowing how much stock was available it seems like it'd be a tricky one to predict at retail. Do you all see it outselling Halo Wars despite being a new IP?

Personally, I reckon Halo Wars is one of those games that would draw a disproportionate number of digital sales due to play anywhere so it seems likely to me that Nioh would sell more at retail even with the aforementioned stock issues.

 

[blakep267]

How do y'all see Nioh and Halo Wars 2 selling this month? With the stock issues Nioh is having without knowing how much stock was available it seems like it'd be a tricky one to predict at retail. Do you all see it outselling Halo Wars despite being a new IP?

Personally, I reckon Halo Wars is one of those games that would draw a disproportionate number of digital sales due to play anywhere so it seems likely to me that Nioh would sell more at retail even with the aforementioned stock issues.

i say Halo wars is 200k with a hefty Digital component. And Nioh is 150k

 

[Kill3r7]

How do y'all see Nioh and Halo Wars 2 selling this month? With the stock issues Nioh is having without knowing how much stock was available it seems like it'd be a tricky one to predict at retail. Do you all see it outselling Halo Wars despite being a new IP?

Personally, I reckon Halo Wars is one of those games that would draw a disproportionate number of digital sales due to play anywhere so it seems likely to me that Nioh would sell more at retail even with the aforementioned stock issues.

Halo Wars sold nearly 700K units in March 2009. A conservative estimate would put HW2 around 230K. I'm not sure if Nioh will do more than that.