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[jeremy1456]

There are very few example of a series with 250K first game in a new IP then become a million seller (or even 500K seller) later in Japan.

RE: VITA 20K-25K baseline - While it could be considered "great" comparing to the previous baseline, it would be the same baseline where 3DS was selling when it was considered struggling and forced to take drastic actions to improve to appeal third parties.

Baselines don't magically increase without software consistently charting.

The Vita has little to sustain it after Dead or Alive 5+ (which probably won't do too well; Dimensions sold less than 75k if I remember correctly). It will be back down to less than 10k weekly come the Summer months.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

I'm not sure about Vita going back to <10k. I'm betting on ~15k weekly.

 

[Father_Brain]

I think the PS4 strategy with regard to the Vita means they are in it for a while. Whether that means they'll keep pouring resources in to it (perhaps the Vita's biggest weakness is that Sony already doesn't put their top tier talent on it with a lot of significant resources) or cut that off is another question. But I think they plan to keep Vitas on shelves for another few years.

IMO, it's overly generous to call selling Vita as a $200 accessory to a $400 (okay, maaaybe $300) console a "strategy."

I mean, I'm sure that's what Hirai and Yoshida want and what they're currently planning for, but what they want and what investors, retailers, and the BOD are willing to accept are not necessarily the same thing. If the price cut proves to be a failure beyond the very short term, which I currently expect, I think it'll significantly increase pressure on SCE to cut their losses.

Not sure I agree with you about Sony's use of their top talent; the current demographics of the Western handheld market would make it pretty damn hard for Naughty Dog, SSM, or Sucker Punch to craft a genuine system seller for Vita even if they tried. I'd say their first-party weakness on the platform stems more from their failure to expand Japan Studio over the past 5-6 years.

 

[jeremy1456]

I'm not sure about Vita going back to <10k. I'm betting on ~15k weekly.

What's your reasoning?

We've seen time and time again that price drops alone do not raise baselines. It's software - either a steady stream of new games or evergreen titles that sell for years to come.

The Vita does have some software coming, but nothing left that's big (that we know of at least). Unless you know of some games that we don't know of then there's no indication that things won't go back to how they were.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

SAO>KH

Fuck. You. Japan.

 

[Aru]

I know KH 1.5 is just an HD collection, but I expected more than those sales.
Like 200k+ at least.
It's been a while since the last KH game on consoles. It's not a new one, but I can't see it opening the series to a larger audience with those numbers. Looks more like only the big fans that were looking for an upgraded version bought it.

 

[test_account]

At least a positive note on the Vita sales is that it sells better than what most people here expected. I remember seeing some predictions that it would be back to sub 10k three - four weeks after the pricedrop.

 

[Father_Brain]

For this to work it will be on the back of the west more than Japan. I could see it surviving as a niche in Japan if it managed to find some place in the west.

Could you elaborate a bit on this? Not sure what could plausibly make it healthier in the West than in Japan.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

IMO, it's overly generous to call selling Vita as a $200 accessory to a $400 (okay, maaaybe $300) console a "strategy."

I mean, I'm sure that's what Hirai and Yoshida want and what they're currently planning for, but what they want and what investors, retailers, and the BOD are willing to accept are not necessarily the same thing. If the price cut proves to be a failure beyond the very short term, which I currently expect, I think it'll significantly increase pressure on SCE to cut their losses.

Not sure I agree with you about Sony's use of their top talent; the current demographics of the Western handheld market would make it pretty damn hard for Naughty Dog, SSM, or Sucker Punch to craft a genuine system seller for Vita even if they tried.

But they didn't try. If they tried and failed, oh well. You gave it a go, it didn't work. For all the talk of handhelds being in the gaming ghetto, Sony treats their systems like they are with their own developers and at least one big burst of effort needs to be made to get your foot in the door.

 

[ohlawd]

SAO>KH

Fuck. You. Japan.

The Japanese want some more of dat imouto with dat killer body.

 

[Thorgal]

SAO>KH

Fuck. You. Japan.

Anime trope : after kicking the crap out of my enemy , if he is getting back up in a gravity defying way while demonic aura is flowing around him .please feel the need to keep staring at him.

 

[lemonade]

there is no reason to believe the vita numbers will stabilize at even 15-20k. if nintendo can float their own boat (such as the wii) with their own in-house developers, why can't sony do the same? i understand nintendo are the master-mind of such things but sony has been in the business for quite a while now. piss poor launches can really screw things up. nice hardware and all, but it gets pretty boring in a lonely house. they a steady stream of big games to get things going but who knows if that will even work. not sayin' sony's dead, but this bullshit could've of definitley been avoided.

 

[lemonade]

At least a positive note on the Vita sales is that it sells better than what most people here expected. I remember seeing some predictions that it would be back to sub 10k three - four weeks after the pricedrop.

they're almost there. wouldn't doubt it at all...

 

[Mr Swine]

What's your reasoning?

We've seen time and time again that price drops alone do not raise baselines. It's software - either a steady stream of new games or evergreen titles that sell for years to come.

The Vita does have some software coming, but nothing left that's big (that we know of at least). Unless you know of some games that we don't know of then there's no indication that things won't go back to how they were.

I guess it's because it's cheaper now and that it has lots of games out

 

[metalslimer]

Could you elaborate a bit on this? Not sure what could plausibly make it healthier in the West than in Japan.

What I mean is Sony isnt going to waste their time on an extreme niche that is only a niche in that region. If retailers bounce the system in the west, itll just be a matter of time before its over in Japan. So reaching niche status has to be a worldwide feat not just Japan.

 

[electroplankton]

Lol People want this to fail so bad.

Don't be dichotomic. SS is selling well, being a new IP on a struggling platform. But hoping for some kind of phenomenon that will drive hardware sales over time it's not reasonable, and that in general. MH was a lighting in a bottle.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Lol People want this to fail so bad.

More like people want it to succeed so bad.

Especially if you are comparing it to Monster Hunter.

 

[Bebpo]

More or less on par. Compared to the DS releases it's the lowest opening yet, but they've been declining with each release anyway. It should end up selling close to the previous DS release which did like 160k or so iirc. The bigger console versions of SRW sell much, much more.

You know, my only worry about this is that getting all the voice actors from all the shows has to cost a good bit of money, making UX much more expensive than the DS entries. If the 3DS entries only sell on par with the DS SRWs....I wonder if they'll think twice about doing voices in future ones.

 

[test_account]

they're almost there. wouldn't doubt it at all...

This is the 3rd week and the Vita is at 36k, that is not even close to being under 10k as someone predicted. What will happen in 5-7 weeks after the pricedrop is anyone's guess, but it is doing better than what many initially expected. Selling better than expected is something positive

 

[Banjoman]

The Japanese want some more of dat imouto with dat killer body.

probably she's the only reason why I watched SAO until the end.
dem legs.

 

[Sakura]

I think that's what makes the portable SRWs interesting in a way though. They pick series which aren't really big mainstream stuff, and it feels more unique and quirky as a result. But if you look at it from a larger perspective, it's also one reason why the sales are kinda limited compared to the big console ones which always have like 6 Gundam series, 4 Macross series, and a bunch of Code Geass and whatever else is the flavor of the year.

When is the last time there was a standard console SRW game? 2008? SRWZ2 seems much more like what you're describing, as it has Gundam, Macross, and it's the only game that has Code Geass. And that was a PSP game and sold like, 400k. So I don't really think there is a huge disparity between console SRW and handheld SRW, just more between Sony SRW and Nintendo SRW.

 

[Thorgal]

there is no reason to believe the vita numbers will stabilize at even 15-20k. if nintendo can float their own boat (such as the wii) with their own in-house developers, why can't sony do the same? i understand nintendo are the master-mind of such things but sony has been in the business for quite a while now. piss poor launches can really screw things up. nice hardware and all, but it gets pretty boring in a lonely house. they a steady stream of big games to get things going but who knows if that will even work. not sayin' sony's dead, but this bullshit could've of definitley been avoided.

Because all those in house developers are currently working on PS4 projects ?
Consoles are sonys main focus .


The last thing sony needs is for the PS4 to become another Wii u that releases without any noise and without any games at all .

if that means having their handheld has to bomb then so be it .

 

[Sammy Samusu]

What's your reasoning?

We've seen time and time again that price drops alone do not raise baselines. It's software - either a steady stream of new games or evergreen titles that sell for years to come.

The Vita does have some software coming, but nothing left that's big (that we know of at least). Unless you know of some games that we don't know of then there's no indication that things won't go back to how they were.

Vita was selling <10k weekly with no games or pricecut, now it's cheaper and has more games available, even if it goes through another drought, it should be more appealing than it used to be. And of course, we are talking about very small numbers, any sort of impact would be noticeable. It's like LEGO and Monster Hunter bumping Wii U in March NPD.

 

[Mpl90]

When is the last time there was a standard console SRW game? 2008? SRWZ2 seems much more like what you're describing, as it has Gundam, Macross, and it's the only game that has Code Geass. And that was a PSP game and sold like, 400k. So I don't really think there is a huge disparity between console SRW and handheld SRW, just more between Sony SRW and Nintendo SRW.

If you really want the right comparison, it's between main SRW and not main SRW. Until last gen, main SRW have always been released on home consoles, not main SRW on Nintendo handhelds. Last gen, we've seen main SRW on PSP, and since they were main they sold more than the other portable releases. Not because it was on a Sony console. The two type of titles are very different due to production values, character selections and storylines: main SRW titles have big mecha anime names, big produciton values and big stories, while not main SRW have forgotten / niche mecha anime names, lower production values and particular story.

 

[Nekki]

I didn't know what SAO was until like last week. I haven't watched or read anything about it but I can't deny I'm surprised at that level of sales.

Vita's drop is pretty decent, 36k is not bad, and the baseline will probably be established around the 12~15k range.

SS is not a success story if we look at the whole context of it (major marketing, main first party game for the Vita in the most popular genre in the region, from a well known developer). Overall the result is good for a new IP, but I have to roll my eyes at people wanting to find coincidences with MHP's sales numbers.

Comgnet corner - March 20th, 2013

[Wii] Super Mario Galaxy 2 - 313pt
[3DS] Super Mario 3D Land - 262pt
[3DS] Kid Icarus Uprising - 118pt
[3DS] Luigi's Mansion 2 - 273pt

Yes, people, it's happening ronpaul.gif

I expect a strong opening, but it will never ever be close to 3D Land in terms of LTD, sadly. It seems to be an amazing game, with a lot of love and care put into it, and a great effort form Next Level. For those reasons, I like it more than 3D Land. Not to say 3D Land is not an excellent game, it rocks.

[PS3] One Piece: Kaizoku Musou - 751pt
[PS3] Shin Sangoku Musou 7 - 183pt
[PS3] One Piece: Kaizoku Musou 2 - 267pt
[PSV] One Piece: Kaizoku Musou - 34pt

Yeah, even though ComG might not be the best to base one's opinions on things, it's evident as hell that Vita's SKU will be almost nonexistant.

Professor Layton (3DS) third week sales:


It's quite painful to watch the decline of this franchise, now it's truly on its last legs. This last chapter won't even reach 300.000 units.

Well, everything eventually comes to an end.

It's quite sad, but it all falls in line with Level 5's horrendous managing of their franchises. They bring it into a new generation without any big improvements over the formula, no real good advantage on the 3D, and frankly, they just released an updated version of mask of miracle and Layton VS Ace Attorney too close to this game.

But I guess as an end to the Layton series (starring him at least) it's as good as it will get. Make the money back, a bit of profit, and goodbye.

 

[Basch]

I hope the Vita and WiiU somehow manage to rise from the grave and at least achieve a modicum of the success the PS3 had. Hopefully, if they were able to manage that, we would see more awesome Japanese games (I'm mainly hoping for a JRPG renaissance) on those platforms as well, not just the 3DS. Those systems need some love too. :'(

 

[ohlawd]

probably she's the only reason why I watched SAO until the end.
dem legs.

Same.

I'm sorta glad I didn't drop it midway. I was about to but then Sugu happened. Thank you Sugu, thank you.

 

[metalslimer]

I hope the Vita and WiiU somehow manage to rise from the grave and at least achieve a modicum of the success the PS3 had. Hopefully, if they were able to manage that, we would see more awesome Japanese games (I'm mainly hoping for a JRPG renaissance) on those platforms as well, not just the 3DS. Those systems need some love too. :'(

I honestly think the PS4 has a shot at taking the 2nd place crown this coming generation. I dont think that the market will contract to only the 3ds, but i also dont know how the vita or wiiu will achieve sustainable bumps.

 

[lemonade]

Because all those in house developers are currently working on PS4 projects ?
Consoles are sonys main focus .


The last thing sony needs is for the PS4 to become another Wii u that releases without any noise and without any games at all .

if that means having their handheld has to bomb then so be it .

i understanding your reasoning and to a point agree. this is the position that vita consumers (such as myself) are in. seeing the floundering numbers just pisses you off. obviously there is nothing for us to do but converse of the subject and hopefully sony jumpstarts this madness. if there is any time its now with the spike of sales

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

probably she's the only reason why I watched SAO until the end.
dem legs.

So people like you are the reason for this atrocity.

Target sighted.

 

[zroid]

So people like you are the reason for this atrocity.

Target sighted.

But whom can we thank for THIS atrocity?

Spoiler

me from 5 years ago

 

[test_account]

Yeah, even though ComG might not be the best to base one's opinions on things, it's evident as hell that Vita's SKU will be almost nonexistant.

How much in raw numbers is "almost nonexistant"?

 

[Tratorn]

Vita is 6k higher than i thought, SS 10k lower than I hoped.
I hope it'll break the 200k at retail, but for that to happen it shouldn't drop too hard next week.

 

[Father_Brain]

But they didn't try. If they tried and failed, oh well. You gave it a go, it didn't work. For all the talk of handhelds being in the gaming ghetto, Sony treats their systems like they are with their own developers and at least one big burst of effort needs to be made to get your foot in the door.

The odds are pretty minuscule that a new Vita IP from, say, Naughty Dog would produce equivalent or greater ROI (proportionate to budget) than The Last of Us. It just doesn't seem to me like a particularly smart risk to take.

The bigger first-party problem, IMO, is less that Sony isn't willing to reallocate existing resources away from consoles and more that they failed to seriously invest in expanding their handheld teams and cultivating handheld-specific IP during the PSP era. Invizimals is one of the few success stories there, and there should have been more titles like it.

For instance, as I believe someone said in last week's MC thread, if Soul Sacrifice had been a PSP title riding MHP's coattails, a hypothetical Vita sequel would potentially be selling better than the actual game is as a new IP.

 

[ragincajun77]

Not that i disagree with what you are saying about competition being healthy for the industry but i gotta ask;

Despite the massive amount of shovelware would anyone here truly say that the near total domination of the 900 pound gorilla that was Ps2 was bad for games or was bad for the industry?
I thought most would consider it a golden era for gaming?

if something similar where to occur now would that realy be so bad?

ps Sorry if off topic.

Having a market leader, or even a market dominator is fine, as long as you have some type of competition in there to keep the leader in check. While you are correct that PS2 dominated the 6th generation as far as sales are concerned, Sony still had to deal with a healthy amount of competition. Sony had to deal with Sega's Dreamcast, Nintendo's GameCube, and Microsoft's Xbox, which, at least on a technical specification basis, was superior to the PS2.

What did Sony do at the end of 2001 once Nintendo and Microsoft entered the picture? It cut the price of the PS2. In response, Microsoft cut the MSRP of the Xbox in mid-2002. Do you really think Sony would have cut the price of the PS2 had there been no other competitors in the market? Hell no they wouldn't.

 

[Kusagari]

The Japanese want some more of dat imouto with dat killer body.

Kirito clearly made the wrong choice and should have went the imouto route.

 

[Soriku]

I know KH 1.5 is just an HD collection, but I expected more than those sales.
Like 200k+ at least.
It's been a while since the last KH game on consoles. It's not a new one, but I can't see it opening the series to a larger audience with those numbers. Looks more like only the big fans that were looking for an upgraded version bought it.

I wonder if people will be more receptive to 2.5 which is going to have KH2 FM+ and BBS FM (and Coded). Better selection of (playable) games than 1.5 IMO.

 

[slaughterking]

I know KH 1.5 is just an HD collection, but I expected more than those sales.
Like 200k+ at least.
It's been a while since the last KH game on consoles. It's not a new one, but I can't see it opening the series to a larger audience with those numbers. Looks more like only the big fans that were looking for an upgraded version bought it.

With over 200k it would have sold about as much as KH:3D did. That would have been sort of funny.

 

[Nekki]

How much in raw numbers is "almost nonexistant"?

Well, in contrast with PS3 SKU. I'm expecting 20k.

 

[Sakura]

If you really want the right comparison, it's between main SRW and not main SRW. Until last gen, main SRW have always been released on home consoles, not main SRW on Nintendo handhelds. Last gen, we've seen main SRW on PSP, and since they were main they sold more than the other portable releases. Not because it was on a Sony console.

Sure. I wasn't trying to imply the reason they sell worse is simply because they are on Nintendo platforms, but more that they put the lower budget/non-main games on Nintendo platforms, while keeping the stronger titles on the Sony platforms.

 

[metalslimer]

If Sony manages to pull off an exclusivity deal for FF Versus as 15 as a launch window title could PS4 still manage a 40k yen lauch ok?

 

[NeonZ]

Pikmin 3 is also hotly anticipated among Nintendo fans and I think Wonderful 101 looks amazing. Both games could lift the system in Japan to a reasonable sales level. Better than now. As I said as my original point, delaying them now would be utterly pointless.

I really don't believe in the strength of those titles. Even if they cause a minor bump in hardware sales, it won't be sustanaible at all if there's nothing following up. In two or three weeks at best, the Wii U would go back to being just as low as it is currently. I don't think the strength of Nintendo's franchises is meaningless, but Pikmin just isn't one of the franchises with any significant pull.

Those other games you've listed certainly will do nothing for Japan, and likely will have little impact worldwide. Those ports and multi releases won't move a console by themselves. They'd just keep the base satisfied, if they were there in the first place.

You know, my only worry about this is that getting all the voice actors from all the shows has to cost a good bit of money, making UX much more expensive than the DS entries. If the 3DS entries only sell on par with the DS SRWs....I wonder if they'll think twice about doing voices in future ones.

I think that the way they went with visuals barely above the level of the DS SRWs (which were minor upgrades over J's, a GBA game) shows that they were very cost conscious while making this title (maybe due to the experimental/weird series line up?). They're still significantly worse than the sprites made for the PS2 games, after all. I'd be surprised if the addition of VAs actually cost "a good bit of money", considering the lack of improvement in other aspects of the presentation (Also, if you look at the past of the series' main games, they added voices before fully animated sprites).

 

[test_account]

Well, in contrast with PS3 SKU. I'm expecting 20k.

Ok, thanks. I was just wondering =)

 

[AranhaHunter]

The odds are pretty minuscule that a new Vita IP from, say, Naughty Dog would produce equivalent or greater ROI (proportionate to budget) than The Last of Us. It just doesn't seem to me like a particularly smart risk to take.

The bigger first-party problem, IMO, is less that Sony isn't willing to reallocate existing resources away from consoles and more that they failed to seriously invest in expanding their handheld teams and cultivating handheld-specific IP during the PSP era. Invizimals is one of the few success stories there, and there should have been more titles like it.

For instance, as I believe someone said in last week's MC thread, if Soul Sacrifice had been a PSP title riding MHP's coattails, a hypothetical Vita sequel would potentially be selling better than the actual game is as a new IP.

As a vita owner I will be the first to admit that I would much rather ND work on Uncharted 4/TLOU2/new IP for PS4 than create a game for Vita. Same goes for SP, SSM, GG, etc And ND themselves said they don't wanna do anything with it either. What SCEA and SCEE need is to acquire and/or expand their current studios to have dedicated handheld teams. Most of the senior people at ND, SSM, SP, GG, Cambridge, etc have been working with powerful hardware and are excited to be working with the latest and greatest, most powerful hardware available. They don't want to go from 8GB RAM, however powerful CPU/GPU the PS4 is to 512MB and a much weaker CPU/GPU. Having dedicated handheld teams help alleviate that problem as people will be working exclusively with handhelds. It would also help staff move around to a more handheld or home console environment if they got burned out from one environment or another.

I was the one that said that about SS and I still believe that. SCEJ is a worthless POS entity that Becker is trying to turn around.

I wonder if people will be more receptive to 2.5 which is going to have KH2 FM+ and BBS FM (and Coded). Better selection of (playable) games than 1.5 IMO.

Is KH2.5 HD confirmed?

I think KH's numbers were fine, I think it was said in this thread that it's the 2nd highest for an HD Collection. I expected a bigger bump for the PS3 though.

 

[Bebpo]

When is the last time there was a standard console SRW game? 2008? SRWZ2 seems much more like what you're describing, as it has Gundam, Macross, and it's the only game that has Code Geass. And that was a PSP game and sold like, 400k. So I don't really think there is a huge disparity between console SRW and handheld SRW, just more between Sony SRW and Nintendo SRW.

Z2 is a console SRW that was put out on a handheld because of timing and PSP being the most appropriate release place. The system it was supposed to be on changed 3 times during development, but the core game they were making and budgeted for was never changed because you can drop the game on any platform with a decent resolution.


If 3DS got Z3 and it was a big budget SRW, with Z1/Z2 graphics, it'd do 250-400k no problem. It's not a Sony/Nintendo thing. It's just that the Wonderswan/GBA/DS and now 3DS SRWs have all been part of the "budget SRW line" which until now we simply called "handheld SRW" since the big budget SRW line were saved for consoles pre-Z2.

But yeah, it's basically

Mainline SRW line - detailed sprites with good animations, full voice in battle, lots of Gundam series, lots of popular mainstream series. Pretty lengthy.

Budget SRW line - low res sprites with little animation, no voice in battle, oddball series, tends to be short.


UX is sort of blurring the lines a little since it got voice in battle, but otherwise it's still part of the budget SRW line.

 

[Soriku]

Is KH2.5 HD confirmed?

All but. The credits in KH1.5 showed KH2, BBS, and Coded. Pretty obvious it was a hint towards the next collection. Not to mention the point of these Remixes is to have all KH games on one console (instead of spread out on 80 different ones).

 

[Supermanisdead]

Kingdom Hearts can't even clock a #1 anymore. Outsold by a Twilight anime game. How embarrassing. KH is the Nicki Minaj of video games. #oop

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Kingdom Hearts can't even clock a #1 anymore. Outsold by a Twilight anime game. How embarrassing. KH is the Nicki Minaj of video games. #oop

someone please tell me this ia a joke.

 

[Gonzo The Great]

someone please tell me this ia a joke.

Why would it be?

Disastrous Wii U performance, but things can only get better from here. Nintendo needs to announce another direct as soon as humanly possibly.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Kingdom Hearts can't even clock a #1 anymore. Outsold by a Twilight anime game. How embarrassing. KH is the Nicki Minaj of video games. #oop

omg