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No calculations but it you consider the holidays are typically the biggest months for then, you can probably expect 3-3.5m sold worldwide oct-dec alone, so if you work backwards from there you can get a rough idea of where they should/could be end of June then end of sept.
In general, I think we're looking at the Switch too locally in these threads and then left with befuddlement. I look at Mat's general prognosis in the NPD threads and, given that I would imagine he has a far better market understanding and volume estimates (even on a worldwide scale) in the future term, his outlook remains (strongly) positive.
But you have to consider what a worldwide launch (the first? for Nintendo) would look like when supply is strapped. If you consider that, monthly, right now they seem to have been moving around 500-700k units globally, you can probably start to piece together a picture of "production ramping up" but in any individual market, it will be small number increases. So let's take our estimate to be middle of the road at ~600k globally right now (which for June I think is probably fairly reasonable). Let's say in July, that number increased to ~800k, which is also probably fairly reasonable.
So:
600k -> 800k
= 200k delta
Weekly:
200k/4 = 50k weekly change globally
Individual major markets:
NA
EU (FR, DE, UK)
JPN
*insert smaller markets here*
Just taking the first three (with no weighting):
50k/5 = 10k per week
But in reality probably looks more like:
15k per week in NA
5-7k per week in JPN/FR/DE
5k in UK
And then, welp, you've run out of units and the bumps are small per individual market but the supply has increased by 33%.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Wii was doing 50-65k a week around this same time, launch-aligned. Wonder if Nintendo can hit that benchmark soon.
To be a bit more accurate, thanks to the leakes we've recently had for NPD numbers
US April - June 2017 | 661,517
Japan April - June 2017 (Week 13- Week 26, 2017 by Media Create) | 474,812
Total - 1,136,329
If you add the rest of the Americas and Others (mainly Europe), you'll probably get around 1.6 - 1.7 millions at max. So, around 4,440,000 units shipped at max.
OrbitalBeard
Member
I think it was extremely important to have a strong year 1 lineup, regardless of any stock issues.
I think software for the first half of next year will be pretty light though, as Nintendo attempts to fix their production problems. New Switch owners will have plenty to play already.
AdventureRacing
Member
It's a hard thing to quantify though. How do we know if sales have been lost permanently? For example when the wii was at its peak if by some miracle Nintendo could have doubled their already ludicrous supply chain could they have sold it? No one knows what the ceiling was for wii sales at that point. In the end it had pretty short legs compared to its competitors, maybe if they had maximised sales more in those massive years they could have sold more in total.
To me though there are other factors at play, namely the impact early HW sales has on SW and how the playform looks to 3rd parties. If the switch came out and was selling huge amounts of HW and SW not only would it be good for Nintendos bottom line but it would make the platform hard for 3rd parties to ignore. It would also be a great way to give game releasing early in the platforms life a great chance of being a bigger success (like Arms).
Another thing I think they miss out on is word of mouth. The more people who are buying and playing your system the more people they encourage to get one themselves, especially MP games like Mario kart or splatoon.
I don't think it's the end of the world. If Nintendo sell 'only' 10 million this FY that's still a great start to the switchs life span and will see it ready to overtake the wii U after just over 1 year. If they keep pushing out great games and get their supply chain sorted out they can easily make up for lost time.
I just feel like this was a chance to rocket out of the gates after the failed wii U and disappointing 3DS. They could really make a statement that the switch is a return to form.
Liabe Brave
Member
I'd argue PS4 is also a heavily-in-second-place system's successor here, not all that different from 360. The gap between its antecedent PS3 and Wii may be "only" ~15m, but that's after years of Nintendo neglect while they ramped for the WiiU. And while PS2 versus Xbox ended up as a far bigger slaughter, a huge amount of that gap is from after 360 launched.
Either way, though, I think my point stands. See below.
But it did go way up, from 60 titles to 90 if you compare to Xbox 360. Using the PS3 comparison the gap is indeed lower, 83 to 90. But as you mentioned, scoring this generation has been harsher than last. In addition, you're surely aware that there are far fewer retail releases period--the titles most likely to get reviewed. Adjusting for those factors, I'd say PS4 is way up over PS3 as well.
Even if you're adamant that it's only up, and not "way up", it seems perverse to dismiss the performance as unexpectedly low. It's still the highest number any console has posted. "Yeah, but I expected it to be the best ever by a bigger margin." Disappointment in this case seems idiosyncratic at best.
The release slate of 85+ games has done pretty much what you predicted. That's precisely why I was reacting to your evinced surprise.
Yeah, no realistic shipment number was ever going to sate the true demand for Switches. They'll have been hard to get no matter what the amount.
I very much doubt Nintedno shipped more to Amerias and EU than US+Japan. Those region were the clear focus going by the regional pricing and historic performance.
1.6-1.7 millions is the range for total shipments I'm expecting. That would translate in around 464,000 - 564,000 units shipped to the rest of Americas and others combined.
He's saying they shipped around 470k (minimum) to eu and row in that period.
Based on march shipment breakdown, it's entirely possible eu+row got more than Japan.
Skittzo0413
Member
Typically for Nintendo consoles ROW gets somewhere around 45% of the shipments that US+Japan do (which would line up with Mpl90's estimates), right? I recall seeing that number somewhere and it seems to reflect reality with Switch's opening month at least.
i'm not so sure, it was looking like 55% of the shipments were going to US(not to be confused with the americas) and japan alone. When Nintendo announced they had shipped 2.74 million, only 1.5 were from those two areas, leaving 1.24 million for the rest of world.
So let's they kept these shipping numbers percentages. We know that US plus Japan is at 2.7 million systems. 2.7 is 54% of 5. So it's safe to assume that 5 million is likely at this point. With their fiscal year goal of 13 million, 8 million more systems in the next months seems feasible. It's literally 1 million systems a month going out.
I don't see them shipping almost 2.5 million to other regions it just not happened especially since something like Japan sees constant shortages.
I think you're missing what I was trying to say here. The PS4 and XB1 launched at the same time, and was a clear generation switch-over point.
By comparison, the 360 came out a year before the PS3 did, but it wasn't a follow-up to the leading console, so the transition was much more tepid. Basically every Western publisher was there in force in the first few months of this generation in a way they weren't with the 360.
I don't think this is actually that weird of a concept. Let me use a sales analogy. As of the time Brink released, Fallout 3 had shipped 6 million copies. Skyrim was in the 25-30 million range by the time Fallout 4 hit, and I would have considered it a major disappointment if Fallout 4 was an 8 million lifetime sales type title given what Bethesda's previous game had done. It ended up shipping 12 million copies on day one, which was well above Skyrim's 7 million.
I feel the conditions with how the industry invests in games these days actually favors a really high number of 85+ titles. There was a simultaneous generation shift, the best games from last gen got ported over and re-reviewed (and were likely to not drop below 85 if they were 90+ titles last generation given the discount pricing many of them had, or the short period of time in between for those that didn't). The floodgates were open to independent developers to make games of any size at any price point from day one. While publishers are making notably less games, they're also investing in the types of projects that are expected to do well critically instead of the licensed game or b-tier type titles that would pack catalogs in days past. We can just go look at Bungie's contract with Activision to see they were targeting a 90+ for Destiny instead of the 76 they got.
My statement more reflects on the degree to which review scores have harshened that we *don't* see a huge sea of titles at 85+. The intended implication was that I'm not actually sure Dragon Quest XI is a shoe-in for that type of score, because I can't find many comparable products that actually scored that well. Is the game expected to be one of the ~8 best rated $60 retail games in the year it comes out? That's pretty much what it takes to get an 85+ for a $60 retail game these days.
Right and going by that number and how big of a market France is for Nintedno there is no way it they shipped over 2 million to regions outside of US and Japan. I mean where they fuck would they ship so much and why when Japan and US (two biggest Nintedno markets) are both so short on stock.
2m since launch? Who's saying that?
France reports are pacing with Wii, so its seeing a constant and fairly sizable supply. They expect a million for the FY, which is par with Wii.
I don't think many people that wanted Switches will settle for a PS4 when they weren't able to get one.
I think it's far more likely that they just won't buy a console at all due to a passing interest that wasn't able to be fulfilled.
My friend is one of those people.
He sold all his consoles as he prefers other hobbies to spend his time, but wanted to try out a Switch.
Now he says he probably won't try one out at all unless he's gifted one.
Essentially, most hardcore gamers will contain to wait for a Switch if they want one.
However, some casual gamers might not even be casual gamers anymore by the time they can get a hold of a Switch.
Why is that hard to believe? when they had their earning statement in april they has shipped 1.24 million systems to all other regions? Does 1.06 million really seem that far fetched over the last 13 weeks? that's an average of 81.5k systems a week for the rest of the world outside the US and Japan.
NintendosBooger
Member
Beginning to see why Yamauchi hadn't chosen this clown to be his successor back in the day. Kimishima was given success on a golden platter rimmed with diamond-encrusted edges and ruby-studded utensils but he has the forward vision of a one-eyed gnat.
Seriously now ?
Kimishima wasn't even work in Nintendo back in the day
NintendosBooger
Member
LordRaptor
Member
I honestly question to what extent review scores have harshened, and to what extent familiarity breeds contempt.
Historically, a significant number of high scoring titles are either new IPs - new IP in the sense of a new take on a genre, not new IP in the sense of copying someone elses game and changing the artstyle and main character name - or significant reinventions of existing IPs (such as a Resident Evil 4 or a SOTN).
Risk averse publishing leads to risk averse games, and diminishing returns in general desirability for anything not a 'genre king'.
Pokemon Company is not Nintendo
NintendosBooger
Member
Calm Mind
Member
OK, You are right, but it's still strange to expect to appoint him to position of president of NCL when Yamauchi stepped down
Father_Brain
Banned
Well, unless they have a big financially relevant announcement alongside the Q1 results, like they did with the 3DS price cut in 2011. But of course that's not at all likely.
BronzeWolf
Banned
I wouldn't put much stock in what people say about the switch if they are not able to find it now. People aren{t the best judge of character when it comes down to their own spending habits and even then, samples of n=1 are not representative.
I think the demand will sustain for years.
I think the demand will sustain for years.
Obv. as long a the games keep coming the demand will stay there. The Unique Selling Point of Nintendo hardware will always be their exclusives.
The people who are still looking for a Switch in July are likely interested in:
Zelda, MK8D, ARMS, Splatoon 2
...the likelihood of them not caring about the system or these games after MarioxRabbids, MHXXHD, Xenoblade 2, Mario Odyssey, Fire Emblem Warriors etc. are out is very small.
There isnt a immediate substitute for the Switch on the market so they are in a good place.
OrbitalBeard
Member
The demand for Switch will last as long as the good games keep coming. And once the demand starts to fall in any meaningful way, they'll drop the price and/or release a revision. It's gonna' be fine.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
I've been saying it after month 1: how outstandingly bad Nintendo's manufacturing and logistics department must be to face such shortages after months, when the total shipment number is still surprisingly low. Its only their initial loss.
I think this really puts thing into perspective.
How can a Wii-like first year numbers (assuming they actually manage to reach that goal) show a lack of confidence?
In CY2017, in Japan, PS4 hardware will outsell Switch hardware. It will also outsell 3DS hardware.
edit: mini-rationale
* Low impact of Arms tells me the blue ocean has not yet come back to Nintendo (at current pricing at least)
* In Splatoon 2, Nintendo is just now launching what is IMO the last of its strongest own titles this year; no Pokemon before 2018; I don't see Xenoblade 2 / Mario Odyssey touching either of Splatoon / Zelda / Mario Kart. Splatoon 2 preorder activities have been noted and considered.
* In general Nintendo keeps flubbing its software launches with weaksauce Switch hardware availability. This will continue.
* Reported preorder activities tell me DQ XI has a good shot at selling best on PS4, giving a good boost (remember, just like the 2DSXL, PS4 is not made of components), sucking up even more short-term 3rd-p investment
* 14nm is ramping up, PS4 / Pro pricing may change before the year is over; for Switch, impact will be lower because of non-silicon cost drivers and poorly managed supply
edit: mini-rationale
* Low impact of Arms tells me the blue ocean has not yet come back to Nintendo (at current pricing at least)
* In Splatoon 2, Nintendo is just now launching what is IMO the last of its strongest own titles this year; no Pokemon before 2018; I don't see Xenoblade 2 / Mario Odyssey touching either of Splatoon / Zelda / Mario Kart. Splatoon 2 preorder activities have been noted and considered.
* In general Nintendo keeps flubbing its software launches with weaksauce Switch hardware availability. This will continue.
* Reported preorder activities tell me DQ XI has a good shot at selling best on PS4, giving a good boost (remember, just like the 2DSXL, PS4 is not made of components), sucking up even more short-term 3rd-p investment
* 14nm is ramping up, PS4 / Pro pricing may change before the year is over; for Switch, impact will be lower because of non-silicon cost drivers and poorly managed supply
frankie_baby
Member
Nah not happening, it'll be behind both, even a poorly stocked switch would still easily beat it and 3ds should get decent holiday bumps (even more so if any price cuts or bundles)
Skullwaker
Member
I don't think there's anything big enough to push the system after DQXI to make it achieve that.
AdventureRacing
Member
The 3DS I agree with but there's no chance it outsells the switch in that time frame.
I'm not sure I get it. You expect PS4 to sell more than Switch the FY Switch is launching ? You know that Switch is already ahead and PS4 has no notable release post-DQXI for this FY until MHW, provided it actually release this FW ?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but he's not talking about the Fiscal Year, but the Calendar Year, which is even more unlikely.
Skullwaker
Member
Not even FY, but CY. So even MHW is a non-factor.
Didn't know about the abbreviation CY, but yeah it's even less likely then.