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[Oregano]

People thought it was september because of the eurogamer rumor, and I agree with tolu about november sounds fit for the reveal.

I'm fairly sure people were predicting September before the Eurogamer leak on the basis of it being 6 months(Sept->Mar) which is about the shortest time period Nintendo has ever had between announcement and release.

November doesn't really make any more sense than any other time at this point.

EDIT:

You really have no idea what mess at hw, sw and basically at everything at Nintendo an 8 month delay will cause.

Oh I'm perfectly aware it'd be a colossal issue.

 

[Nirolak]

Failing to hit their launch would primarily be problematic from the perspective that they can't launch any notable games until the system comes out, since they're not going to revert games back to the 3DS, meaning perhaps 6+ months of zero games shipping from Nintendo.

Normally partner relations would factor in as well but...

 

[Oregano]

Failing to hit their launch would primarily be problematic from the perspective that they can't launch any notable games until the system comes out, since they're not going to revert games back to the 3DS, meaning perhaps 6+ months of zero games shipping from Nintendo.

Normally partner relations would factor in as well but...

Hey! I'm sure Capcom would be a bit miffed!

Spoiler

Nintendo will still be releasing mobile games although they could even do that in a timely manner

 

[Eternia]

Golden sold 140k first week and now it's at 300k mark. P5 has very good chance to reach 600k in retail only.

The PS4 currently has a userbase of more than 3.2M and there's still the stragglers on PS3. PSV at the time Golden launched had sold less than 800K. Completely different situations likely leading to far more frontloaded sales this time around.

 

[MacTag]

MH being multiplatform at launch and DQ being late released won't change many things. Holidays 2010 were strong for software releases and DS got B2/W2 in 2012.

It's not just the late big releases, it's the fact there's no backwards compatibility and a shift in formfactor. In 2012 3DS owners could still play and pocket B2/W2, in 2018 NX owners won't be able to do the same with any big 3DS titles still left.

Of course crossplatform 3DS/NX could mitigate that and Japanese developers are getting more used to ecosystem development (PS3/4/Vita for example). MHXG, Snack World, DQXI, Mario Maker and Pokemon Star on NX would definitely soften the blow. And by 2H 2018 maybe we'll have a pocketable NX ready for release too. Still I don't feel 3DS/NX is quite the same direct immediate transition we saw with DS/3DS or even GBA/DS. Nintendo and 3rd partirs have more room here to continue pushing 3DS during the transition this time.

This argument doesn't make much sense. DS did better than GBA and had shorter legs. 3DS doing better and being longer in the market (before replacement) is argument for shorter legs. There is less people to sell for.

People could buy a DS and they were still essentially getting a GBA too though. Same with 3DS and DS. I think you're overlooking this aspect for NX, there's a clean break in both compatibility and even portability that makes a 1:1 comparison like this sort of problematic.

 

[Takao]

The PS4 currently has a userbase of more than 3.2M and there's still the stragglers on PS3. PSV at the time Golden launched had sold less than 800K. Completely different situations likely leading to far more frontloaded sales this time around.

In addition to that, Golden went through two promotional anime series and a movie. While some of those were either conceived to be financially successful on their own, or to promote the Persona 4 spinoffs, that's still a lot of support that this version of P5 won't get. Any major P5 adaptations are probably going to be saved for an expanded release, which would obviously cannibalize whatever potential sales were left in the original.

 

[Chris1964]

It's not just the late big releases, it's the fact there's no backwards compatibility and a shift in formfactor. In 2012 3DS owners could still play and pocket B2/W2, in 2018 NX owners won't be able to do the same with any big 3DS titles still left.

Of course crossplatform 3DS/NX could mitigate that and Japanese developers are getting more used to ecosystem development (PS3/4/Vita for example). MHXG, Snack World, DQXI, Mario Maker and Pokemon Star on NX would definitely soften the blow. And by 2H 2018 maybe we'll have a pocketable NX ready for release too. Still I don't feel 3DS/NX is quite the same direct immediate transition we saw with DS/3DS or even GBA/DS. Nintendo and 3rd partirs have more room here to continue pushing 3DS during the transition this time.


People could buy a DS and they were still essentially getting a GBA too though. Same with 3DS and DS. I think you're overlooking this aspect for NX, there's a clean break in both compatibility and even portability that makes a 1:1 comparison like this sort of problematic.

Ok, you expect 3DS->NX transition to be softer at software, I see it the same or even harder than DS->3DS. In the end what will 3DS sell from next year and next? I already followed my optimistic scenario and gave it the same sales with DS despite weaker overall performance.

 

[KillerMan91]

People could buy a DS and they were still essentially getting a GBA too though. Same with 3DS and DS. I think you're overlooking this aspect for NX, there's a clean break in both compatibility and even portability that makes a 1:1 comparison like this sort of problematic.

Are we absolutely sure that NX will not have BC with 3DS? Going by rumours it will use cartridges that could also mean possible BC with 3DS.

 

[Chris1964]

Are we absolutely sure that NX will not have BC with 3DS? Going by rumours it will use cartridges that could also mean possible BC with 3DS.

BC is overestimated.

 

[KillerMan91]

BC is overestimated.

Oh I don't disagree (PS4 being latest example in western markets). Was just asking why people are so sure of NX lacking it.

 

[Chris1964]

Failing to hit their launch would primarily be problematic from the perspective that they can't launch any notable games until the system comes out, since they're not going to revert games back to the 3DS, meaning perhaps 6+ months of zero games shipping from Nintendo.

Normally partner relations would factor in as well but...

We' ve reached Trinity speculation with this supposed delay but I wonder what will happen with Monster Hunter. Either they move its release so back alltogether, release it first on 3DS and later on NX or Capcom gets upset with Nintendo and finally does what is happening every year now, gives it back to Sony.

 

[Vena]

Where the hell did eight months even come from? From even the most basic of economic principles of how a company operates you would know that you cannot just delay a product line scheduled for launch, with software obviously waiting in the wing from not only your own studios but also partners, by eight months.

Did the NX suddenly turn into a psuedo-Higgs and disappear from time and space?

They will almost certainly at this point be launching in March. If they weren't you'd have heard of fire by now because devs would sure as hell be aware of it outside of Nintendo (as we know the kits are out and about). If they are having production issues, they will have limited supply for the first year at worst but they will get the product out of the door.

We' ve reached Trinity speculation with this supposed delay but I wonder what will happen with Monster Hunter. Either they move its release so back alltogether, release it first on 3DS and later on NX or Capcom gets upset with Nintendo and finally does what is happening every year now, gives it back to Sony.

Trinity will launch before the NX. That's where we're headed!

 

[ethomaz]

PS4 the new king.

Persona 5 being the best seller Atlus title in Japan says a lot.

 

[Eliseo]

Failing to hit their launch would primarily be problematic from the perspective that they can't launch any notable games until the system comes out, since they're not going to revert games back to the 3DS, meaning perhaps 6+ months of zero games shipping from Nintendo.

Normally partner relations would factor in as well but...

While failing to hit the launch period will be a big problem, what about the reveal date, does it really matter if they reveal the NX in october or december?

 

[Nirolak]

While failing to hit the launch period will be a big problem, what about the reveal date, does it really matter if they reveal the NX in october or december?

They could reveal it three weeks before if they really wanted to.

It'd be hard to do a great lead up marketing job for the product given it's not something annual like an iPhone, but there's precedent for consumer electronics.

 

[Vena]

They could reveal it three weeks before if they really wanted to.

It'd be hard to do a great lead up marketing job for the product given it's not something annual like an iPhone, but there's precedent for consumer electronics.

I think it will be relatively soon as I find it curious that Yves suddenly started yapping away out of the blue (and Pokemon to a lesser degree). I only highlight him, though, because we know he's walking on glass right now with his problems and so I'd expect him to be extra careful with everything in his sphere that includes Nintendo, even in their position for his company at the moment.

 

[Nirolak]

I think it will be relatively soon as I find it curious that Yves suddenly started yapping away out of the blue.

Well, it's worth keeping in mind they just invited all the press over before a shareholder meeting about trying to avoid their inevitable purchase by Vivendi, so Yves is probably more talkative than normal.

I also laughed when GameSpot told Yves they should show BG&E2 if they want to garner good will from gamers and then two days later there was a piece of concept art.

 

[Vena]

Well, it's worth keeping in mind they just invited all the press over before a shareholder meeting about trying to avoid their inevitable purchase by Vivendi, so Yves is probably more talkative than normal.

I also laughed when GameSpot told Yves they should show BG&E2 if they want to garner good will from gamers and then two days later there was a piece of concept art.

Ya, I know. See my slight edit and elaboration on why I highlighted him.

I can always just also point to DQX/DQXI reconfirmation a few months back, its obvious the hold on "silence" has loosened greatly recently and that makes me think (and obviously other leaks and such pertaining to) kits (finalized, and not only to close partners) have started going out and the lid is coming off sometime soon.

I just can't see a delay, let alone an eight month one, short of Foxconn having gotten nuked off the face of the earth and Nintendo having no production line.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

They could reveal it three weeks before if they really wanted to.

It'd be hard to do a great lead up marketing job for the product given it's not something annual like an iPhone, but there's precedent for consumer electronics.

3 weeks is pretty extreme since this is a new concept that they have to market and explain to people. (Something they struggled with for the Wii U)


I just dont see the benefit to waiting, but then again you know alot more about the business side of the industry than i do.

 

[dracula_x]

They could reveal it three weeks before if they really wanted to.

It'd be hard to do a great lead up marketing job for the product given it's not something annual like an iPhone, but there's precedent for consumer electronics.

They can, but it will be mistake. New product and upgraded product are different things. Some people like to mention Apple, but they forgot that OG iPhone was unveiled 6 months before launch.

3 weeks is pretty extreme since this is a new concept that they have to market and explain to people. (Something they struggled with for the Wii U)


I just dont see the benefit to waiting, but then again you know alot more about the business side of the industry than i do.

yep

 

[Oregano]

We' ve reached Trinity speculation with this supposed delay but I wonder what will happen with Monster Hunter. Either they move its release so back alltogether, release it first on 3DS and later on NX or Capcom gets upset with Nintendo and finally does what is happening every year now, gives it back to Sony.

*shrugs* Whatever is easiest for them.

Where the hell did eight months even come from? From even the most basic of economic principles of how a company operates you would know that you cannot just delay a product line scheduled for launch, with software obviously waiting in the wing from not only your own studios but also partners, by eight months.

Did the NX suddenly turn into a psuedo-Higgs and disappear from time and space?

They will almost certainly at this point be launching in March. If they weren't you'd have heard of fire by now because devs would sure as hell be aware of it outside of Nintendo (as we know the kits are out and about). If they are having production issues, they will have limited supply for the first year at worst but they will get the product out of the door.



Trinity will launch before the NX. That's where we're headed!

Sorry 8 was a miscalculation. 7 is more likely because that places it in the usual November slot.

3 weeks is pretty extreme since this is a new concept that they have to market and explain to people. (Something they struggled with for the Wii U)


I just dont see the benefit to waiting, but then again you know alot more about the business side of the industry than i do.

There might not actually be a benefit, Nintendo might just be incompetent.

 

[Vena]

I don't even understand the source of this reasoning.

 

[Oregano]

I don't even understand the source of this reasoning.

If NX was revealed tomorrow and released on the 31st March is would still be the shortest reveal->release of any Nintendo system. We're also likely to get wind of stuff a few weeks in advance of a reveal.

It could still easily be coming in March but its undeniably unusual.

 

[Vena]

If NX was revealed tomorrow and released on the 31st March is would still be the shortest reveal->release of any Nintendo system. We're also likely to get wind of stuff a few weeks in advance of a reveal.

It could still easily be coming in March but its undeniably unusual.

I don't follow this logic in this day and age.

Information disseminates quickly (even relative to the WiiU timeframe, and order faster than anything before it), and while its not an annual release and likely isn't going to be "buy now" type of event, I don't think you need near half a year for marketing anymore. I think they'll look to schedule several months in advance, at least and obviously, but there really is no reason to hold them to past precedent... especially for a product that isn't precedented from them in a lot of ways.

 

[Oregano]

I don't follow this logic in this day and age.

Information disseminates quickly (even relative to the WiiU timeframe, and order faster than anything before it), and while its not an annual release and likely isn't going to be "buy now" type of event, I don't think you need near half a year for marketing anymore. I think they'll look to schedule several months in advance, at least and obviously, but there really is no reason to hold them to past precedent... especially for a product that isn't precedented from them in a lot of ways.

It would also be a shorter timeframe than PS4 and XBO and also a shorter timeframe than the standard AAA game gets. There's a reason that timeframe is something of a standard.

Saying they don't need that long is completely unproven.

 

[MacTag]

Ok, you expect 3DS->NX transition to be softer at software, I see it the same or even harder than DS->3DS. In the end what will 3DS sell from next year and next? I already followed my optimistic scenario and gave it the same sales with DS despite weaker overall performance.

Software could be harsher even though 3DS has stronger EOL major titles. Lack of backwards compatibility could very well negatively impact that, I just don't think GBA/DS or DS/3DS transitions are a sure model to follow here.

Are we absolutely sure that NX will not have BC with 3DS? Going by rumours it will use cartridges that could also mean possible BC with 3DS.

Rumors say no bc of any kind. Which makes sense, Nintendo always wants hardware based compatibility and throwing in an extra Pica200 is wasteful.

 

[Vaughngief]

Burning blood? Yea it was a terrible jstars rip off with a one piece skin. Keep trying these half asses fighters that nobody wants.

Same devs as J-Stars. BB was more fluid and controlled better, but had a lot of problems with the whole logia/haki mechanics and they've made the game worse with the most recent update with super common flash counters. I find Burning Blood enjoyable, but the series deserves better treatment in the video game department (I just want a good fighter though).

 

[saichi]

all these NX talks remind me QoL... does it join vitality sensor to keep it company now?

 

[Sammy Samusu]

.

holy shit :lol

 

[Kanann]

.

How in hell MHS will be able to break million? Godly anime?

 

[Sterok]

How were pre-orders and expectations for Yokai Watch? I know it didn't do particularly well until the anime started airing.

 

[duckroll]

It's not really about an anime. It's really all about word of mouth and synergy. Games like Splatoon and Yokai Watch have long legs and built a fanbase that way because people actually really like them and keep talking about them.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Never doubt MH is all I'm going to say.

But I'm gonna laugh really hard if it fails to outsell that PSP Felyne game, lol. (that was the peak of the franchise but still, it would be an embarrassment)

 

[Dash Kappei]

Those who played the previous game last year and liked it bought the new twice so that there will be another one soon.



PS4 Pro and PSVR. Those will be the game changers. Especially for VR there will be lines.

This is sarcasm right? I'm honestly asking. Because I personally don't think those two will have a big impact in Japan, in fact I think PSVR will be super niche past launch, PS4 Pro even more so until it'll totally replace the old sku

 

[Vena]

This is sarcasm right? I'm honestly asking. Because I personally don't think those two will have a big impact in Japan, in fact I think PSVR will be super niche past launch, PS4 Pro even more so until it'll totally replace the old sku

Yes, he's being extremely sarcastic.

 

[Ōkami]

PlayStation pls.

 

[vinnygambini]

We're looking at almost 400k for Persona 5, and being an RPG (frontloaded) it'll most likely finish near 450k.

Seems like it's performing like a Tales game would. Were those the expectations?

 

[duckroll]

So who was right ?
(Answer :

Spoiler

Both of us or neither, though Yakuza bombed !

)

I think it's pretty clear that I was right here? I was suggesting that Persona 5 is competition for Yakuza's sales range, rather than RE6. That is 100% true. Yakuza 0 selling less than expected doesn't impact that because it just means Yakuza has further declined, like I accounted the possibility for. Persona 5 is not going to remotely touch 600k. It's not in the middle of anything. It sits perfectly in the 400k+ bracket I laid out there. When Yakuza 6 comes out in Dec, it will be competing with Persona 5 for a place on top PS4 sales, but by then FFXV will be heads and shoulders above both. Persona 5 won't outsell MGSV either, which is another example of a game that's outside of that bracket.

 

[horuhe]

We really need Sony or Nintendo mentioning GAF in a couple of tweets.

 

[Aostia]

It would also be a shorter timeframe than PS4 and XBO and also a shorter timeframe than the standard AAA game gets. There's a reason that timeframe is something of a standard.

Saying they don't need that long is completely unproven.

Normal people dont follow the videogame conf, And are usually reached by launch adv And TV spot
GAF enthusiasts would simply ride one hell of a hype train if they uunveil an interesting product to be released in few weeks

Three weeks is dangerous for logistic reasons in terms of retail orders and stock But even a late december / early january reveal could work for a March release

 

[Moor-Angol]

they will announce NX and 3DS price cut, I think October will be the right time, iirc we had a leak about a 3DS price cut around February or march

And announcing a new system in Q4 would impact winter holidays sales, so here comes the price cut

 

[Aostia]

We' ve reached Trinity speculation with this supposed delay but I wonder what will happen with Monster Hunter. Either they move its release so back alltogether, release it first on 3DS and later on NX or Capcom gets upset with Nintendo and finally does what is happening every year now, gives it back to Sony.

There is the Verendus-rumored PS4 MH somewhere out there

 

[Nirolak]

3 weeks is pretty extreme since this is a new concept that they have to market and explain to people. (Something they struggled with for the Wii U)


I just dont see the benefit to waiting, but then again you know alot more about the business side of the industry than i do.

Oh, I would have unveiled it in the first quarter of this year.

Might as well dig up all the support I can get from indies who get excited.

I'm just saying that these days you don't *have* to unveil early since retailers are used to dealing with short unveil -> release cycles and you don't have to get all your consumer awareness through magazines and toy catalogs like back in the SNES days.

 

[Fisico]

I think it's pretty clear that I was right here? I was suggesting that Persona 5 is competition for Yakuza's sales range, rather than RE6. That is 100% true. Yakuza 0 selling less than expected doesn't impact that because it just means Yakuza has further declined, like I accounted the possibility for. Persona 5 is not going to remotely touch 600k. It's not in the middle of anything. It sits perfectly in the 400k+ bracket I laid out there. When Yakuza 6 comes out in Dec, it will be competing with Persona 5 for a place on top PS4 sales, but by then FFXV will be heads and shoulders above both. Persona 5 won't outsell MGSV either, which is another example of a game that's outside of that bracket.

Well the original point was about Dragon Quest Heroes, a 800k title including digital, and how Persona 5 (which will be somewhere between 500 and 600k with digital, not including budget/expanded rerelease of course) is not that far because the mid range titles tend to dissapear.

You argued Persona 5 would be more in line with the Yakuza series because back then Ishin selling less than the main series was because it was a spin off, yet Yakuza 0 failed to sell more than Ishin (<400k).
Now we could say Yakuza 0 underperformed because it was a prequel, but Kiwami didn't set the charts on fire either (and it was a full blow remake I think ?) so can we really expect Yakuza 6 to be back in the 400-600k range ?

Tales IP also seems to be in the same situation than Yakuza.

If anything it looks like 400k is the new ceiling for mid range titles (Yakuza, Tales, Call of Duty, Battlefield) and that above it you only have the big IP (FF, Dragon Quest, MGS, GTA) and... Persona even though it's clearly below these 4.

 

[Mario007]

Well the original point was about Dragon Quest Heroes, a 800k title including digital, and how Persona 5 (which will be somewhere between 500 and 600k with digital, not including budget/expanded rerelease of course) is not that far because the mid range titles tend to dissapear.

You argued Persona 5 would be more in line with the Yakuza series because back then Ishin selling less than the main series was because it was a spin off, yet Yakuza 0 failed to sell more than Ishin (<400k).
Now we could say Yakuza 0 underperformed because it was a prequel, but Kiwami didn't set the charts on fire either (and it was a full blow remake I think ?) so can we really expect Yakuza 6 to be back in the 400-600k range ?

Tales IP also seems to be in the same situation than Yakuza.

If anything it looks like 400k is the new ceiling for mid range titles (Yakuza, Tales) and that above it you only have the big IP (FF, Dragon Quest, MGS, GTA) and... Persona even though it's clearly below these 4.

Honestly you're trying to spin this into making Persona into a bigger brand than it is.

 

[Kenzodielocke]

So DQXI. That game was supposed to come out until the end of march?

 

[Donniewahlberg]

So DQXI. That game was supposed to come out until the end of march?

Before the end of may I think

http://gematsu.com/2016/01/dragon-quest-xi-aiming-release-before-may-27-2017-japan

 

[Fisico]

Honestly you're trying to spin this into making Persona into a bigger brand than it is.

Not really, just that in the current landscape it managed to sell above the usual mid range titles while still being way below the biggest ones.

It only works because it's the first main entry in 8 years, Tales and Yakuza are bigger because they have a more strict release schedules but they can't, and probably won't for a long time if not ever, pull the numbers Persona 5 is doing.

The main point is that somehow the new ceiling for games which are not a big IPs on home consoles seems to be around ~400k, Persona just managed to be above because of special circumstances, that's all.

 

[duckroll]

Well the original point was about Dragon Quest Heroes, a 800k title including digital, and how Persona 5 (which will be somewhere between 500 and 600k with digital, not including budget/expanded rerelease of course) is not that far because the mid range titles tend to dissapear.

DQH was 770k retail. P5 is going to be about 450k retail. I don't think it's "close" at all and I'm not sure why anyone would argue that. Yakuza and Tales are both doing pretty poorly so it could definitely be argued that at this point Persona is a more popular brand (we'll see that either confirmed or debunked when Yakuza 6 launches this year), but that certainly doesn't put Persona in the class of the bigger games because it's the ceiling we should be looking at. If Persona is barely touching the floor of these titles (500-600k) it just means the brand isn't at that level yet. Why is there a rush to manipulate numbers to suggest Persona is as popular as those brands? It's not, maybe one day it will be, but that day is not today.

 

[duckroll]

The main point is that somehow the new ceiling for games which are not a big IPs on home consoles seems to be around ~400k, Persona just managed to be above because of special circumstances, that's all.

I think there are two possibilities moving forward here. One is that as you say, the ceiling has dropped significantly from 600k to under 400k. This could be permanent, and Persona 5 could just be an outlier. The other possibility is that Persona 5 timed with the launch of the PS4 Slim could be indicative of the ceiling going back up after a slum period where the PS3 was dying off and the PS4 was still too expensive. There's no better chance for this normalization to take place than this holiday period. Going from P5 to FFXV to Yakuza 6 basically removes all excuses. If they show off DQXI again at Jump Festa in December, that's yet another huge title to add to the list. The big titles like FF and DQ are important for moving audiences onto the platform and raising the potential ceiling for mid-range titles.

So yeah, we'll see how it goes.