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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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ToadMan

Member
Does this mean CMA can do 180* on their final decision?

You need to be careful with your use of the term “final decision” - the CMA never makes a final decision. It’s decisions can always be changed if data and/or circumstances change.
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2002/40/section/162

When the regulators don’t object as in the case of the EU, the deal may proceed. But in time the EU can change it’s mind too and retroactively prohibit a merger which results in divestment.
 

feynoob

Gold Member
You need to be careful with your use of the term “final decision” - the CMA never makes a final decision. It’s decisions can always be changed if data and/or circumstances change.
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2002/40/section/162

When the regulators don’t object as in the case of the EU, the deal may proceed. But in time the EU can change it’s mind too and retroactively prohibit a merger which results in divestment.
I was making fun of their math error.
They had SLC concern for the console side. But once they fixed that, they changed their decisions based on that new math.
 

Bernoulli

M2 slut
Is that what some are hoping for now?

I think its pretty much done unless they win the appeal and then the CMA can choose different remedies for it to go through. Like divestment for example.
We still need the final decision from the CMA
I hope they change their mind
And the appeal should drag until july hopefully Activision doesn't extend and it's over
 

zapper

Member
if microsoft hadn't been busy with this negotiation, do you think bungie would have gone under sony anyway?

I am happy that in the meantime sega has decided to expand into mobile, capcom and other sh have managed to raise their price and get back on track a bit (cdpr), with microsoft busy with the regulators other large acquisitions have been temporarily avoided and today's xbox results compared to ps and nintendo greatly reduce future mergers imo.
 

feynoob

Gold Member
if microsoft hadn't been busy with this negotiation, do you think bungie would have gone under sony anyway?

I am happy that in the meantime sega has decided to expand into mobile, capcom and other sh have managed to raise their price and get back on track a bit (cdpr), with microsoft busy with the regulators other large acquisitions have been temporarily avoided and today's xbox results compared to ps and nintendo greatly reduce future mergers imo.
Bungie deal happened during Activision negotiation.
They first went to MS in order to sell themselves, but MS refused them. That is why Sony was able to buy them.

 
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Edmund

Member
Can I interest everyone here in beautiful women and good music that they perform?




t34lgxP.jpg
Q3CJteL.jpg
 
Bungie deal happened during Activision negotiation.
They first went to MS in order to sell themselves, but MS refused them. That is why Sony was able to buy them.


Probably because Bungie is overpriced. They only own 1 IP and that's Free to Play.
 

feynoob

Gold Member
Probably because Bungie is overpriced. They only own 1 IP and that's Free to Play.
Look at insomniac vs Rare.
IP is nothing without the skills and the ability to make multiple games.

MS has yet to utilize Rare IPs, so to them, IPs means nothing.

Bungie would have been a great asset for them. But now they are in a situation where they can't buy Activision blizzard and has nothing to show for, while Sony was buying a lot of small studios during that time.
 
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ToadMan

Member
I was making fun of their math error.
They had SLC concern for the console side. But once they fixed that, they changed their decisions based on that new math.

Did they? They started out with 2 theories of harm, eventually dismissed one but maintained the other.

Is that a 180? Sounds like them doing their job and that job continues all the time - there’s no arbitrary end point.
 

Topher

Gold Member
What if Microsoft choses to close the deal and pay CMA a fine?
The fine will be less than the $3 Billion break-up fee so its worth it.

UK are giving CMA power to fine up to 10% of global revenue. And any case, it isn't going to be a one time fine. CMA can fine repeatedly as long as Microsoft is breaking the law.


I am kinda curious where were they when Disney bought Fox? That was equivalent to Microsoft buying Sony

They were right here:


They applied structural changes to the deal. Microsoft rejected structural changes.
 
UK are giving CMA power to fine up to 10% of global revenue. And any case, it isn't going to be a one time fine. CMA can fine repeatedly as long as Microsoft is breaking the law.




They were right here:


They applied structural changes to the deal. Microsoft rejected structural changes.

Honestly it would be funny to see it go back to the CMA and then they request divestment for it to go through. Can definitely see them doing something like that just ti say that they gave them an option to get it done.
 

Topher

Gold Member
Honestly it would be funny to see it go back to the CMA and then they request divestment for it to go through. Can definitely see them doing something like that just ti say that they gave them an option to get it done.

The best they could do is get ABK but sell off the Call of Duty franchise to a third party. Who is going to buy it though? The CMA has to approve the buyer. I can't imagine selling to EA would fly. Take Two perhaps?

Ah hell.....we are going to spend another 500 pages talking that shit up if it happens, aren't we? :messenger_tears_of_joy:

I was making fun of their math error.
They had SLC concern for the console side. But once they fixed that, they changed their decisions based on that new math.

There was no decision at that point. That's why they called it "provisional findings".
 
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PaintTinJr

Member
Can I interest everyone here in beautiful women and good music that they perform?




t34lgxP.jpg
Q3CJteL.jpg

I would offer up this slightly sadder anniversary entry



And this latter one is powerful (tearful, even) maybe to denote the end of this saga, if Microsoft potentially don't appeal tomorrow 🤞.

Unfortunately, I couldn't find the song video spoiler free(so anyone interested in Violet Evergarden series best to just listen).

 

DavJay

Member
Bungie deal happened during Activision negotiation.
They first went to MS in order to sell themselves, but MS refused them. That is why Sony was able to buy them.

Most likely refused because MS hands were tied to Activision. Didn’t want to give that monopoly vibe and of course Bungie isn’t worth what they were asking.
 

Topher

Gold Member
Most likely refused because MS hands were tied to Activision. Didn’t want to give that monopoly vibe and of course Bungie isn’t worth what they were asking.

That doesn't make any sense. Microsoft has been making acquisitions for years before they began talking to Activision. There was nothing stopping them from calling up Bungie. Bungie exercised their right to get out from under Microsoft so stands to reason they had no desire to go back.
 

Bernoulli

M2 slut
UK are giving CMA power to fine up to 10% of global revenue. And any case, it isn't going to be a one time fine. CMA can fine repeatedly as long as Microsoft is breaking the law.




They were right here:


They applied structural changes to the deal. Microsoft rejected structural changes.
So if MS wins with CAT they have to take structural remedies
The deal won't go through without any
 

DR3AM

Dreams of a world where inflated review scores save studios
We should just assume that every country minus the UK will approve and the CMA appeal will be rejected.

I wonder how MS will deal with this.
 

Topher

Gold Member
So if MS wins with CAT they have to take structural remedies
The deal won't go through without any

Honestly, it is anybody's guess what happens if the CAT remits the case back to CMA. It some ways, it is like starting phase 2 over again.


We should just assume that every country minus the UK will approve and the CMA appeal will be rejected.

I would not assume the appeal will be rejected.
 
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Wulfer

Member
Bungie deal happened during Activision negotiation.
They first went to MS in order to sell themselves, but MS refused them. That is why Sony was able to buy them.

Now Sony can have some fleas for a change. I bet Bungie wrote in a independence escape clause too.
 
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zomboden

Banned
We should just assume that every country minus the UK will approve and the CMA appeal will be rejected.

I wonder how MS will deal with this.
I'm sure it will involve many lawyers reviewing every single relative law, every single bit of fine print, every statement made. Just to find one single sliver of light where they can somehow still make money in the UK, avoid fines, and still go through with the deal.
 

Topher

Gold Member
I'm sure it will involve many lawyers reviewing every single relative law, every single bit of fine print, every statement made. Just to find one single sliver of light where they can somehow still make money in the UK, avoid fines, and still go through with the deal.

There isn't any fine print in the orders given by the CMA. If the decision stands under appeal then Microsoft will not be able to acquire ABK. It really is that simple.
 
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zomboden

Banned
There isn't any fine print in the orders given by the CMA. If the decision stands under appeal then Microsoft will not be able to acquire ABK. It really is that simple.
Until the day they drop the deal and pay the 3 billion to Activision, I will continue to believe they have a backup plan forming.

There wouldn't be a reason to waste time and resources if they didn't have a plan. The plan may make regulatory history, you may not like the plan they have. People in the UK who use Xbox may not like the plan, but there's a chance there is a plan. You can't ignore the fact that Microsoft have been acting strangely about the CMA.

You have two huge companies. One megalithic company. And one massive publisher. Who is run by bobby kotick and wants to be acquired so badly by Microsoft. It wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility that they can create some kind of loophole.

Now don't get me wrong, I think the chance they drop out of the deal vs go through with some shady business is 70% they will drop out 30% shady business. but I think that its really not a non zero % chance scenario like you make it out to be.
 
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Until the day they drop the deal and pay the 3 billion to Activision, I will continue to believe they have a backup plan forming.

There wouldn't be a reason to waste time and resources if they didn't have a plan. The plan may make regulatory history, you may not like the plan they have. People in the UK who use Xbox may not like the plan, but there's a chance there is a plan. You can't ignore the fact that Microsoft have been acting strangely about the CMA.

You have two huge companies. One megalithic company. And one massive publisher. Who is run by bobby kotick and wants to be acquired so badly by Microsoft. It wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility that they can create some kind of loophole.

What plan though?

I dont see them eliminating the UK from their business but it depends on how desperate they are.
 

Topher

Gold Member
Until the day they drop the deal and pay the 3 billion to Activision, I will continue to believe they have a backup plan forming.

There wouldn't be a reason to waste time and resources if they didn't have a plan. The plan may make regulatory history, you may not like the plan they have. People in the UK who use Xbox may not like the plan, but there's a chance there is a plan. You can't ignore the fact that Microsoft have been acting strangely about the CMA.

They do have a backup plan. The plan is to fight the ruling with an appeal to the CAT. That isn't making "regulatory history". This isn't new. Why wouldn't I like an appeal process? That is completely fair.

Microsoft's attitude toward the CMA is adversarial. That is completely normal considering the circumstances.
 
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zomboden

Banned
What plan though?

I dont see them eliminating the UK from their business but it depends on how desperate they are.
I don't know. That would be between Microsoft and Activision/Bobby. But I think when we are dealing with deals between companies with such massive values we often see them side step regulatory bodies by doing things that prevents the regulatory body from having a say in it. We'll just have to wait and see if by the end of the year they drop out of the deal or not.
 

zomboden

Banned
They do have a backup plan. The plan is to fight the ruling with an appeal to the CAT. That isn't making "regulatory history". This isn't new. Why wouldn't I like an appeal process? That is completely fair.

Microsoft's attitude toward the CMA is adversarial. That is completely normal considering the circumstances.
You really think they are going to sit on their hands for 18 months and wait for a tribunal to make a decision whether they can then REOPEN the case and tie up about another 6 months? LOL

If CMA is last regulatory body and FTC is on board they are going to close the deal one way or another. They will not wait 2 more years and sit here and not acquire anymore publishers for a chance at the deal just being shot down again because one regulator has a hard on for cloud gaming.
 

Bogroll

Likes moldy games
What plan though?

I dont see them eliminating the UK from their business but it depends on how desperate they are.
Could they give Cod etx away for free with Xbox in the UK.
Just a thought as it could be worth giving up UK Xbox sales of Cod for worldwide sales of Cod.
Note.I have not followed this thread or deal at all. Just heard the odd headline.
 

Topher

Gold Member
You really think they are going to sit on their hands for 18 months and wait for a tribunal to make a decision whether they can then REOPEN the case and tie up about another 6 months? LOL

If CMA is last regulatory body and FTC is on board they are going to close the deal one way or another. They will not wait 2 more years and sit here and not acquire anymore publishers for a chance at the deal just being shot down again because one regulator has a hard on for cloud gaming.

What part of "fight the ruling with an appeal" do you interpret as sitting on their hands? Guess what? Microsoft is not above the law. It seems that may be a shock to you. Microsoft has to fight this ruling within the parameters of the process that has been defined by the UK government. But no, Microsoft will not be sitting on their hands. They didn't hire all those lawyers to stick their fingers up their butts, now did they? But Microsoft does not dictate the timeline. The UK does.

You can believe this pipedream that Microsoft can ignore the CMA if you want. That's simply a delusion.
 

LordCBH

Member
What part of "fight the ruling with an appeal" do you interpret as sitting on their hands? Guess what? Microsoft is not above the law. It seems that may be a shock to you. Microsoft has to fight this ruling within the parameters of the process that has been defined by the UK government. But no, Microsoft will not be sitting on their hands. They didn't hire all those lawyers to stick their fingers up their butts, now did they? But Microsoft does not dictate the timeline. The UK does.

You can believe this pipedream that Microsoft can ignore the CMA if you want. That's simply a delusion.

At this point I’m waiting on them to float the idea that Microsoft will hire a PMC and take over the UK government through covert military action.
 

zomboden

Banned
Jesus Christ you people are a broken record.

What part of "fight the ruling with an appeal" do you interpret as sitting on their hands? Guess what? Microsoft is not above the law. It seems that may be a shock to you. Microsoft has to fight this ruling within the parameters of the process that has been defined by the UK government. But no, Microsoft will not be sitting on their hands. They didn't hire all those lawyers to stick their fingers up their butts, now did they? But Microsoft does not dictate the timeline. The UK does.

You can believe this pipedream that Microsoft can ignore the CMA if you want. That's simply a delusion.
Look, Phil said they have an internal 20 year plan. And Activision being acquired was part of it.

I personally believe that the plan is to buy up a ton of publishers/studios to fuel game pass growth/interest.

Why would they tie up potentially 2.5 more years of time when they could being acquiring more people in that time?

If their plan is to acquire a ton of publishers. How do they know the CMA isn't going to be a thorn in their side again? Why not just get rid of the thorn now and say hey we're buying up half the gaming industry and CMA is going to stop us. So we're going to avoid the problem now and in the future we don't have to worry about them stopping our future acquisitions too.
 

LordCBH

Member
Look, Phil said they have an internal 20 year plan. And Activision being acquired was part of it.

I personally believe that the plan is to buy up a ton of publishers/studios to fuel game pass growth/interest.

Why would they tie up potentially 2.5 more years of time when they could being acquiring more people in that time?

If their plan is to acquire a ton of publishers. How do they know the CMA isn't going to be a thorn in their side again? Why not just get rid of the thorn now and say hey we're buying up half the gaming industry and CMA is going to stop us. So we're going to avoid the problem now and in the future we don't have to worry about them stopping our future acquisitions too.

Go read the past 500 pages of people adamantly arguing this same thing and being told it doesn’t work that way. This argument is stupid.
 

Topher

Gold Member
Look, Phil said they have an internal 20 year plan. And Activision being acquired was part of it.

I personally believe that the plan is to buy up a ton of publishers/studios to fuel game pass growth/interest.

Why would they tie up potentially 2.5 more years of time when they could being acquiring more people in that time?

If their plan is to acquire a ton of publishers. How do they know the CMA isn't going to be a thorn in their side again? Why not just get rid of the thorn now and say hey we're buying up half the gaming industry and CMA is going to stop us. So we're going to avoid the problem now and in the future we don't have to worry about them stopping our future acquisitions too.

This is great fanfiction, my man. Just need Phil riding into the sunset with Lulu and we've got a hit movie on our hands.

Lady Gaga Compliment GIF
 

zomboden

Banned
This is great fanfiction, my man. Just need Phil riding into the sunset with Lulu and we've got a hit movie on our hands.

Lady Gaga Compliment GIF
I wouldn’t be so sure its fan fiction. I think the acquisition wars will be real and soon.

And if you’re the CMA/UK you won’t want to be the only one in the way of all these companies.
 
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Bernoulli

M2 slut
Look, Phil said they have an internal 20 year plan. And Activision being acquired was part of it.

I personally believe that the plan is to buy up a ton of publishers/studios to fuel game pass growth/interest.

Why would they tie up potentially 2.5 more years of time when they could being acquiring more people in that time?

If their plan is to acquire a ton of publishers. How do they know the CMA isn't going to be a thorn in their side again? Why not just get rid of the thorn now and say hey we're buying up half the gaming industry and CMA is going to stop us. So we're going to avoid the problem now and in the future we don't have to worry about them stopping our future acquisitions too.
Why don't the buy the CMA and use it to boost their plans?
 

Thirty7ven

Banned
Bungie deal happened during Activision negotiation.
They first went to MS in order to sell themselves, but MS refused them. That is why Sony was able to buy them.


Don’t believe for one second that Bungie went to MS and not the other way.
 

splattered

Member
Wait so... CMA report was just final report and not the official decision? I thought everyone said that was it... Interesting but I seriously dont think they are going to change their minds. Would be absolutely wild though. Entire internet would explode and never recover haha
 
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