Support NeoGAF

[Topher]

Busy couple days. Weird twitter guy was on gaf?

SoloKingRobert

 

[Heisenberg007]

Shall I pull a number out of my ass just like all the so called experts here? Nah I'll just wait, but you all do make me laugh.

You do realize that less than 5% is based on recent CMA merger cases where CAT was involved? The CMA reversed the decision in less than 5% of those cases.

So if anybody quotes more than 5%, that's "pulling a number of his ass."

It's the same when people mentioned that the statistical probability of the CMA deviating from the provisional finding was 2.38%, and y'all just kept acting like how you are acting right now. And then the CMA blocked the acquisition and stuck with their provisional findings in their final decision.

And we saw the surprised pikachu face.jpg.

 

[Heisenberg007]

You missed out the part of my post that dealt with that. When I say this country I mean the UK as I'm English.

"The CMA "made fundamental errors in its calculation and assessment of market share data for cloud gaming services", Microsoft will say at the Competition Appeal Tribunal."

That's part of the appeal, they will dispute that Gamepass Ultimate subscribers = Xcloud users. I presume they have the data to back that up.

Question: Why didn't Microsoft object to those numbers when the CMA first shared them and made them public in their Provisional Findings report?

We found out about xCloud's 70% market share months ago. Microsoft complained about console market share but didn't say a peep about xCloud's market share. Why?

 

[TheGodfather07]

So that I understand, people here are hoping and cheering for external, political pressure to force an independent regulator to change their ruling because MS is so big they deserve to get their way?

Finally we have a regulator that actually has power to stop massive corporations, but no! We can't be having that! Let the trillion dollar corporation that I worship have all the power and freely be able to do what they want instead. How dare they try to stop Microsoft?

Riky and Negotiator doing their best to pick up the slack since goalus and sus got banned.

Funny how they popped up into thread when they barely posted in it before. Right after two other very suspect users got banned.

 

[MasterCornholio]

You missed out the part of my post that dealt with that. When I say this country I mean the UK as I'm English.

"The CMA "made fundamental errors in its calculation and assessment of market share data for cloud gaming services", Microsoft will say at the Competition Appeal Tribunal."

That's part of the appeal, they will dispute that Gamepass Ultimate subscribers = Xcloud users. I presume they have the data to back that up.

I dont see how GPU users don't have access to cloud. Especially after someone explained to me how GPU ultimate works.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Remember when these very same users bragged about xCloud being included with GPU and you have access to your gaming library while traveling and used it as a Xbox/GP selling point as they advertised for free on here?

Now it's no longer important nor should be counted. I wonder what changed?

 

[Heisenberg007]

I dont see how GPU users don't have access to cloud. Especially after someone explained to me how GPU ultimate works.

You're not wrong. This is exactly what it is and it how works.

All GPU subscribers have access to xCloud, subject to geographical restrictions. There is no separate service to access xCloud. If a user wants to use xCloud, there is only one route, i.e., they must subscribe to Game Pass Ultimate.

 

[Sony]

I dont see how GPU users don't have access to cloud. Especially after someone explained to me how GPU ultimate works.

Having access to it doesn't make u a user. In other words, you can have 50 million GPU subscribers of which 5 million use the cloud function, and have 10 million PS+ Premium members, and still have PS+ Premium have the bigger market share.

 

[Nico_D]

Having access to it doesn't make u a user. In other words, you can have 50 million GPU subscribers of which 5 million use the cloud function, and have 10 million PS+ Premium members, and still have PS+ Premium have the bigger market share.

Yep. Phones have Spotify, among others, preinstalled on them. Are all phone users Spotify users?

Or Google Home.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Having access to it doesn't make u a user. In other words, you can have 50 million GPU subscribers of which 5 million use the cloud function, and have 10 million PS+ Premium members, and still have PS+ Premium have the bigger market share.

Based on statistics that Microsoft shared, we know that the overwhelming majority (up to 80%) of Game Pass subscribers use or have used xCloud.

• Game Pass (including GP and GPU) has 25 million subscribers: https://www.theverge.com/2022/1/18/...s-subscribers-25-million-microsoft-activision
• More than 20 million people have used xCloud, which is only available on Game Pass Ultimate: https://www.theverge.com/2022/10/25/23423668/microsoft-xbox-cloud-gaming-20-million-people-streamed
• Even if you take numbers before Fortnite joined xCloud, you'd still get more than 10 million: https://www.theverge.com/2022/4/26/23043678/microsoft-xbox-cloud-gaming-10-million-people-streamed

 

[MasterCornholio]

Having access to it doesn't make u a user. In other words, you can have 50 million GPU subscribers of which 5 million use the cloud function, and have 10 million PS+ Premium members, and still have PS+ Premium have the bigger market share.

But you magically become a user at any moment on any device. Everyone with GPU has access to Xcloud with the way Microsofts make it work.

If Microsoft wants to fix their mistake all they have to do is remove Xcloud from GPU. Then make it a separate subscription service. That way the two are separate and the numbers will be smaller.

 

[Sony]

But you magically become a user at any moment on any device. Everyone with GPU has access to Xcloud with the way Microsofts make it work.

If Microsoft wants to fix their mistake all they have to do is remove Xcloud from GPU. Then make it a separate subscription service. That way the two are separate and the numbers will be smaller.

Sure, Microsoft could to that. At the same time, it's unfair to say it's Microsoft's mistake when - from what I've seen so far - CMA is the only one inflating xCloud's market share.
When I first subscribed to GPU, I tested a cloud game to check its latency out of curiousity. Haven't touched cloud gaming ever since (years). Yet CMA count's me as an active xCloud user inflating its market share. That's procedurally wrong and there are ways to determine active xCloud users withing GPU without saying 'every person who ever used xCloud withing GPU is an active cloud user".

 

[Heisenberg007]

Sure, Microsoft could to that. At the same time, it's unfair to say it's Microsoft's mistake when - from what I've seen so far - CMA is the only one inflating xCloud's market share.
When I first subscribed to GPU, I tested a cloud game to check its latency out of curiousity. Haven't touched cloud gaming ever since (years). Yet CMA count's me as an active xCloud user inflating its market share. That's procedurally wrong and there are ways to determine active xCloud users withing GPU without saying 'every person who ever used xCloud withing GPU is an active cloud user".

Because Microsoft also counts you as an xCloud user.

That's how everyone does it. That's how you have over 20 million Halo Infinite players and 30 million Forza Horizon 5 players.

The CMA used the same methodology that Microsoft uses. And the rest of the industry also uses it, as a matter of fact. What's the problem with this?

 

[TheGodfather07]

Sure, Microsoft could to that. At the same time, it's unfair to say it's Microsoft's mistake when - from what I've seen so far - CMA is the only one inflating xCloud's market share.
When I first subscribed to GPU, I tested a cloud game to check its latency out of curiousity. Haven't touched cloud gaming ever since (years). Yet CMA count's me as an active xCloud user inflating its market share. That's procedurally wrong and there are ways to determine active xCloud users withing GPU without saying 'every person who ever used xCloud withing GPU is an active cloud user".

why didnt microsoft have an issue with this before when they had the chance to make CMA aware of their "mistake"? its too late to play dumb now. micrsoft cant worm their way out now.

 

[Dick Jones]

why didnt microsoft have an issue with this before when they had the chance to make CMA aware of their "mistake"? its too late to play dumb now. micrsoft cant worm their way out now.

Microsoft lawyers were still reeling from finding out the Sony PS4 game was Spider-Man, not Superman. As a result, there wasn't enough time to fix all the errors in the CMA report.

 

[Sony]

why didnt microsoft have an issue with this before when they had the chance to make CMA aware of their "mistake"? its too late to play dumb now. micrsoft cant worm their way out now.

Where did this notion that Microsoft have just now made an issue out of come from? They've objected the marketshare analysis the first opportunity they had. It's in their response.

 

[Sony]

Because Microsoft also counts you as an xCloud user.

That's how everyone does it. That's how you have over 20 million Halo Infinite players and 30 million Forza Horizon 5 players.

The CMA used the same methodology that Microsoft uses. And the rest of the industry also uses it, as a matter of fact. What's the problem with this?

The problem is one statement is used for marketing purposes and the other statement is used as a factual substantiation of a B69 usd merger. It's called due dilligence vs. PR.

 

[Heisenberg007]

The problem is one statement is used for marketing purposes and the other statement is used as a factual substantiation of a B69 usd merger. It's called due dilligence vs. PR.

Marketing statement or not -- was it correct or incorrect? That's all that matters.

And Microsoft has yet to establish that the information the CMA used is incorrect. It's worth remembering that Microsoft did not object to xCloud's 70% market share when the CMA shared that data in their PF report.

Why didn't MS object to it? They impliedly accepted that data.

 

[mrmustard]

The problem is one statement is used for marketing purposes and the other statement is used as a factual substantiation of a B69 usd merger. It's called due dilligence vs. PR.

It's the same thing with player count. For marketing you say '10 million players played game A', but in reality you know that 4 million uninstalled it after 2 minutes.

 

[Sony]

Marketing statement or not -- was it correct or incorrect? That's all that matters.

And Microsoft has yet to establish that the information the CMA used is incorrect. It's worth remembering that Microsoft did not object to xCloud's 70% market share when the CMA shared that data in their PF report.

Why didn't MS object to it? They impliedly accepted that data.

Exactly, is it correct or incorrect. So what's the relevance what Microsoft said in PR? You invoked it. Microsoft also said that GamePass would not cannibalize game sales, yet CMA found that internal communication has talked about the cannibalizing effects. It's about factfinding.

Also, Microsoft did object to it in paragraph 3.86b.

Besides misrepresented evidence on Microsoft’s past behaviour, the CMA’s analysis of incentives relies solely on (i) speculation regarding future growth of cloud gaming and (ii) Microsoft’s alleged pre-existing strength in this space. Neither provides a sufficient basis for the conclusions drawn by the CMA.

(a) As set out in section 3.C, the CMA cannot conclude on the balance of probabilities that cloud gaming services will become profitable in the next five years. More generally, the CMA has assumed without evidence that Microsoft would []. 223 However, [], there is no basis on which the CMA can conclude that Microsoft would be incentivized to seek to harm rivals by withholding content. On the contrary, the NVIDIA Agreement shows that Microsoft is incentivized to distribute its content widely, including through alternative cloud gaming business models (e.g., BYOG) to its own.

(b) The CMA’s claim that Microsoft “already holds a strong position in cloud gaming”224 is based on a misleading analysis of shares of supply. In particular, the CMA estimates that Microsoft’s share increased from []% in 2021 to []% in 2022. However:

- First, as set out in section 3.C above, []. This is not comparable to subscribers to a service like NVIDIA GFN which is a standalone cloud gaming service and []. This is because being a standalone cloud gaming service signals that registered users, and even more so subscribers, to NVIDIA GFN have actively selected this service for its cloud offering and []
- Second, even using MAUs across all platforms, the CMA’s 2022 estimates are flawed and overstate Microsoft’s share of supply. In particular, while Microsoft’s share of supply in terms of average MAUs is calculated based on figures for January to September 2022, NVIDIA’s share of supply is based solely on its MAUs as of January 2022. Given that cloud gaming is a “growing and promising market”225, taking a snapshot of NVIDIA’s MAUs as of January 2022 and comparing it to Microsoft’s MAUs for a later period is liable to present a heavily distorted view of the market. Comparing like-for-like, using Microsoft’s average MAUs as of January 2022 it would have a share of supply of []%. Excluding gamers accessing Xbox Cloud Gaming on console, Microsoft’s average MAUs for 2022 are []. However, without figures for NVIDIA and other providers covering the remainder of 2022 it is not possible to accurately estimate 2022 shares of supply based on MAUs.

 

[nikolino840]

 

[DeltaPolarBear]

The problem is one statement is used for marketing purposes and the other statement is used as a factual substantiation of a B69 usd merger. It's called due dilligence vs. PR.

You don't get to discard your PR when it is used against you. There is such a thing as consequences.

 

[Sony]

You don't get to discard your PR when it is used against you. There is such a thing as consequences.

You get to disgard the PR if it's factually incorrect though.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Exactly, is it correct or incorrect. So what's the relevance what Microsoft said in PR? You invoked it. Microsoft also said that GamePass would not cannibalize game sales, yet CMA found that internal communication has talked about the cannibalizing effects. It's about factfinding.

Also, Microsoft did object to it in paragraph 3.86b.

1. If you assume the information is incorrect, you're essentially saying that Microsoft lied and xCloud did not have 20 million users. That's a huge claim and a lawsuit waiting to happen. You'll have to back up that claim with something instead of simply saying "factually incorrect" without any evidence.

2. Microsoft did not object. They are objecting now when they are filing the appeal. But Microsoft did not object when the CMA shared this data in their Provisional Findings report months ago. In the same report, the CMA shared the console SLC-related calculation, and Microsoft did object to that but didn't say a word on the xCloud market share. Why?

 

[Bernoulli]

But you magically become a user at any moment on any device. Everyone with GPU has access to Xcloud with the way Microsofts make it work.

If Microsoft wants to fix their mistake all they have to do is remove Xcloud from GPU. Then make it a separate subscription service. That way the two are separate and the numbers will be smaller.

What's weird is these same peopel that complain about the CMA using gamepass ultimate to count
are the one boasting about how xbox told everyone they have the highest MAU in gaming

Xbox Surpasses 120M Monthly Active Users, As Game Pass Reaches 'New Highs'

Despite Microsoft's decline in gaming revenue

www.purexbox.com

 

[Ar¢tos]

1. If you assume the information is incorrect, you're essentially saying that Microsoft lied and xCloud did not have 20 million subscribers. That's a huge claim and a lawsuit waiting to happen. You'll have to back up that claim with something instead of simply saying "factually incorrect" without any evidence.

2. Microsoft did not object. They are objecting now when they are filing the appeal. But Microsoft did not object when the CMA shared this data in their Provisional Findings report months ago. In the same report, the CMA shared the console SLC-related calculation, and Microsoft did object to that but didn't say a word on the xCloud market share. Why?

Trillion dollar companies don't lie.
They report unknowingly incorrect data and later (when the truth comes out) apologize and fire someone for the "mistake".

 

[DeltaPolarBear]

You get to disgard the PR if it's factually incorrect though.

It isn't incorrect, it is just a different point of view. But the fact that Microsoft released the data the way it did means it hold weight. it is an exaggeration that was technically correct, but it has MS' seal of approval.

 

[Sony]

2. Microsoft did not object. They are objecting now when they are filing the appeal. But Microsoft did not object when the CMA shared this data in their Provisional Findings report months ago. In the same report, the CMA shared the console SLC-related calculation, and Microsoft did object to that but didn't say a word on the xCloud market share. Why?

I literrally quoted the paragraph from their response to the provisional findings. It's not from the appeal filing. So again, they did object.

 

[reksveks]

Microsoft did not object. They are objecting now when they are filing the appeal. But Microsoft did not object when the CMA shared this data in their Provisional Findings report months ago. In the same report, the CMA shared the console SLC-related calculation, and Microsoft did object to that but didn't say a word on the xCloud market share. Why?

Was going to ask Sony for the link but it's there in filings published on the 16th March, filed by MS's lawyers on the 2nd

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6412d70ad3bf7f79e1938b86/Microsoft_s_response_to_the_provisional_findings.pdf

They also did argue that cloud gaming isn't a separate market but that's just interesting for me.

Maybe we are using different definitions of the word object.

 

[Gorgon]

I guess that Sony looking poor on the recent PS Showcase ain't working after all.

 

[Bernoulli]

This explains why and where it gets approved

While looking through the documentation, I came across something interesting from the Korean Fair Trade Commission.

MS's share of the gaming market by country

Korea 5~10%
Japan 0~5%
UK 40~45%
United States 40~45%
EU 15~20%
Sources: Company submissions, data from national competition authorities

Document Viewer

 

[MasterCornholio]

Sure, Microsoft could to that. At the same time, it's unfair to say it's Microsoft's mistake when - from what I've seen so far - CMA is the only one inflating xCloud's market share.
When I first subscribed to GPU, I tested a cloud game to check its latency out of curiousity. Haven't touched cloud gaming ever since (years). Yet CMA count's me as an active xCloud user inflating its market share. That's procedurally wrong and there are ways to determine active xCloud users withing GPU without saying 'every person who ever used xCloud withing GPU is an active cloud user".

Seems like Microsoft are the ones inflating it by combing GPU with Xcloud. The CMA is just using the numbers that Microsoft gives them. They didnt have an issue with them until the appeal.

why didnt microsoft have an issue with this before when they had the chance to make CMA aware of their "mistake"? its too late to play dumb now. micrsoft cant worm their way out now.

I mean they had issues with other CMA calculations. They could have taken care of it during their phase 2 or the deal. If they didn't they must have been fine with it. If not then it's their fault for ignoring them.

 

[Ozriel]

This explains why and where it gets approved

Document Viewer

Brazil?

 

[Three]

Was going to ask Sony for the link but it's there in filings published on the 16th March, filed by MS's lawyers on the 2nd

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6412d70ad3bf7f79e1938b86/Microsoft_s_response_to_the_provisional_findings.pdf

They also did argue that cloud gaming isn't a separate market but that's just interesting for me.

Maybe we are using different definitions of the word object.

Their objection wasn't good enough

"Comparing like-for-like, using Microsoft’s average MAUs as of January 2022 it would have a share of supply of []%. Excluding gamers accessing Xbox Cloud Gaming on console, Microsoft’s average MAUs for 2022 are []%"

CMA would have read this and if it was a compelling retort would have corrected it. It seems likely that even with MS January 2022 MAU it would have had a majority share and MS tried to add the condition that "if you exclude cloud gaming on console" it would reduce its marketshare. It would be interesting to see more recent results especially after starfield because they only started releasing on Series X/S from this month onwards. A lot of xbox one users would have to stream the likes of Redfall, Starfield, Hellblade 2, etc.

 

[bitbydeath]

You get to disgard the PR if it's factually incorrect though.

It isn’t incorrect though.

You’re trying to argue the equivalent of a PlayStation Premium member isn’t a PlayStation Plus Premium member if they never download the PlayStation Plus Premium games despite paying for PlayStation Plus Premium.

It doesn’t matter if it’s used or not, if they have access to it then they should be counted.

 

[POKEYCLYDE]

I guess that Sony looking poor on the recent PS Showcase ain't working after all.

Why would it?

 

[jm89]

Allegedly korea see cloud gaming as a separate market? Can't translate my self to verify.

 

[reksveks]

Their objection wasn't good enough

Obviously that's a different topic then whether MS objected now or previously. That was the only point of my comment

 

[Three]

Obviously that's a different topic then whether MS objected now or previously. That was the only point of my comment

True, I get that. Just saying I don't think this point of theirs stuck very well with the regulator because they still had the majority. MS literally objected everything including the importance of CoDs removal because it's beneficial to object every point and see what sticks.

Treating cloud and console as the same market might not stick for them either. Especially as they have been using separated console marketshare to show their weakness. Otherwise they should have just used both combined as a single marketshare in their arguments and piecharts. That was not beneficial to them though because it would have painted a different picture. They want their cake and to eat it too so they objected everything on both sides wherever possible as things changed. Both for the removal of COD and not removing CoD, for separated markets and not separated markets, for cloud adding potentially a lot of users and cloud being insignificant. They've objected everything.

 

[MasterCornholio]

Allegedly korea see cloud gaming as a separate market? Can't translate my self to verify.

And the EC also sees it as a separate market. Anyone else?

Edit: Also I would think Microsoft would object to other regulators saying that its a separate market.

 

[reksveks]

True, I get that. Just saying I don't think this point of theirs stuck very well with the regulator because they still had the majority. MS literally objected everything including the importance of CoDs removal because it's beneficial to object every point and see what sticks.

Treating cloud and console as the same market might not stick for them either. Especially as they have been using separated console marketshare to show their weakness. Otherwise they should have just used both combined as a single marketshare in their arguments and piecharts. That was not beneficial to them though because it would have painted a different picture. They want their cake and to eat it too so they objected everything on both sides wherever possible as things changed. Both for the removal of COD and not removing CoD, for separated markets and not separated markets, for cloud adding potentially a lot of users and cloud being insignificant. They've objected everything.

Objecting to everything isn't that surprising, I don't think any of them will stick and if they do, the CMA will just work around the stuff that the CAT throws out.

Back to work until something new actually happens.

 

[The Pleasure]

Interesting...

Moreso, the fact that all these countries have approved the deal and don't see it as some threat to consumers, or even competitors. Minus the UK, of course.

I asked the ftc why they changed their mind. They replied in one word

 

[feynoob]

Today's the popcorn day.

I wanna see how MS fumbles this badly

 

[Bernardougf]

You people can post all the markets in the world that are approving this deal....but MS and ACT considered only 04 markets for the closure of the deal in their contract.. the two that Xbox is completely irrelevant approved ....the other two that MS/Xbox are actually competitive blocked or are suing to block wich right now is the same thing (blocked until further notice).

The rest simply dosent matter, only for Lulu's PR's efforts

 

[GHG]

Today's the popcorn day.

I wanna see how MS fumbles this badly

I think the only thing we're guaranteed to get today is a schedule of proceedings moving forwards.

 

[Heisenberg007]

I think the only thing we're guaranteed to get today is a schedule of proceedings moving forwards.

NGL, would be 10x better if the CAT just posts this as their official response:

 

[feynoob]

I think the only thing we're guaranteed to get today is a schedule of proceedings moving forwards.

That sucks.
I wanted us to see some juicy details.

 

[Godot25]

So. CMA said that Microsoft has 60-70% of cloud gaming market. Is that only for UK or globally?

If latter, it is certainly funny, since Korean FTC said that Microsoft has 50-55% of global cloud gaming market...

 

[Heisenberg007]

So. CMA said that Microsoft has 60-70% of cloud gaming market. Is that only for UK or globally?

If latter, it is certainly funny, since Korean FTC said that Microsoft has 50-55% of global cloud gaming market...

UK.

 

[Bernoulli]

The livestream will be 3 hours from now

1590/4/12/23 Microsoft Corporation v Competition and Markets Authority | Competition Appeal Tribunal

www.catribunal.org.uk