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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
Phil touted that, but how does it make sense to acquire 10 plus studios who are only experienced in console/PC development to make them all pivot?

If he’s that flippant about Xbox that he was seemingly willing to consider chucking it in for mobile, why not chuck Xbox in right now and start publishing all games on Switch/PS4/PC & strip back Game Pass to a first party only service to get it on PS and Switch?

They could then get their devs working on mobile games too.

The whole strategy from Xbox seems like a convoluted mess.
My understanding is that at first they really thought they'd turn around the Xbox ship with Xbox Series X and S.

They bought most of the studios before the consoles launched (in 2018 and 2019). Then bought Zenimax in 2020 and announced the acquisition a day before X|S preorders went live.

Xbox Series X|S are selling even less than Xbox One.

When those strategies failed, I think they threw the towel (hint: also the Kinda Funny interview by Phil), and then started looking at mobile gaming more seriously. ABK would help them with mobile as well as Game Pass, which is why it's attractive.

But now they are clearly after mobile more than console.
 

Topher

Gold Member
Imma do a Xbox Fanboy journalist tier list for funsies.

1) Jez Corden (Greatest fanboy)
2) Destin Legarie
3) Tom Warren
4) Ryan Mcaffrey ( Weakest fanboy)

Now do Sony

Trying Not To Laugh Rooster Teeth GIF by Achievement Hunter
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member

NickFire

Member
It would be an exceedingly aggressive move, almost without precedence. At least none that I can immediately think of.

Obviously the CMA has serious teeth, including the ability to require divestment or significant fines. I wouldn’t pay too much attention to the very top figures suggested (20% of revenue etc), but it would still be eye watering sums.

Where this does differ is in the fact that the two companies under consideration are both US. Any domestic regulator is territorial, but especially so when the company under scrutiny is incorporated within their jurisdiction.

Again, I have no idea what MS is planning. Such aggression would be surprising, but this case continues to deliver in that regard. We also don’t really know the exact details of the ABK contract, so maybe this is all a bluff and an extension is easily arrived at. Who knows?

I think the interesting thing around CAT and CMA will be the decision made around the definition of the cloud market.
Not sure if you pretended to be working all day like me or not. If not, check out Nadella's testimony on the issue. Would be interested in your thoughts generally, but also specifically as to whether the CMA can cite the testimony as further evidence for CMA's existing position.
 

GHG

Member
Because they want to be able to say "....but Sony"

The thing with the "but Sony" excuse is that it doesn't make sense. Let's assume that what he says is candid (which I highly doubt, but whatever) and that they genuinely do want to sing kumbaya, then what's genuinely stopping them?

  • From a games publishing perspective they only stand to gain in terms of revenue potential.
  • From the perspective on how that impacts Xbox as a console, it remains to be seen but the trajectory isn't looking good as it is and if anyone has deep enough pockets to offset any shortfall in that area then it's Microsoft. And let's be honest, those who have stoutly stuck with them on the hardware side up until this point were always going to stick with them regardless.
  • As an extension on the point above, the revenue gained from genuinely putting their games on every platform has the potential to offset any potential losses seen in the hardware division.
We also hear a lot about how Xbox is going on a different path to Sony, they are beyond being a console now, we now compete with Google and Amazon, yadayadaya. If that's genuinely the case then what's stopping them from no longer seeing Sony as some kind of adversary?

All I'm getting from all of this is that they have such blinding hate for Sony that they are willing to do anything, even if it's to the detriment of their own business (and their mission statement) , in order to do as much harm as possible to Sony/PlayStation.

It's bizarre and it's not rational, but when you have as much money as they have you don't need to be rational.
 
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My understanding is that at first they really thought they'd turn around the Xbox ship with Xbox Series X and S.

They bought most of the studios before the consoles launched (in 2018 and 2019). Then bought Zenimax in 2020 and announced the acquisition a day before X|S preorders went live.

Xbox Series X|S are selling even less than Xbox One.

When those strategies failed, I think they threw the towel (hint: also the Kinda Funny interview by Phil), and then started looking at mobile gaming more seriously. ABK would help them with mobile as well as Game Pass, which is why it's attractive.

But now they are clearly after mobile more than console.

They're also clearly more after PC than console, too. It's why PC Game Pass didn't get any price increases but the Xbox owners are getting charged more instead.

The crazy part (IMO) is that MS's strategy with buying Ninja Theory, Obsidian, inXile, Compulsion etc. and then even Zenimax, WOULD have been enough to get them big inroads this gen, if they actually knew how to manage a successful content pipeline and had more realistic expectations for the first couple of years.

Instead everything that's come out has proven that Xbox upper management is complete garbage at managing a well-oiled content pipeline in-house, and Microsoft had growth ambitions for Xbox's improvement that were too much in too little time (no doubt they were conned into it from Phil Spencer's sales pitch to Satya Nadella, Brad Smith and other upper brass). So they actually have squandered a lot of the timely potential the 2018 acquisitions & Zenimax could've afforded them, not to mention stagnation of several 1P teams that were already there (Playground Games, Turn 10, Coalition) and the crumbling of 343i.

The entire upper management of Xbox & Microsoft Gaming needs to be flushed out.
 
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Facism

Member
Eid Mubarak Adam. You will forever be my favourite Xbox fan in gaf. You can take jokes and hold a conversation. If not for distance, we'd be hanging out having drinks and food. All the best in whatever you do and good health and happiness to you and your loved ones.

TBH that's what makes this place good a lot of the time. Opposing opinions, some shit-housery but generally people have respect for each other despite differing opinions or positions. Plus mods don't shut conversation down because of hurt feelings or The Narrative (tm)

Apart from that one sad cunt that got so mad over nothing he had to send me a Turkophobic DM 🚽
 

Ogbert

Member
Not sure if you pretended to be working all day like me or not. If not, check out Nadella's testimony on the issue. Would be interested in your thoughts generally, but also specifically as to whether the CMA can cite the testimony as further evidence for CMA's existing position.
I have had an absolute clusterfuck of a day and finished work about an hour ago!

I will catch up on everything now. If it’s a matter of public record, I see no reason why the CMA couldn’t refer to comments made. That said, the process in the UK isn’t as adversarial, so should the CAT decision throw it open again, I’m not entirely sure what happens.
 
Sage wouldn't be first considering he didn't fucking dox anyone. At least there is some semblance of not being the ultimate cunt, unlike the Hand Solo King.

Florian is much worse than SenjutsuSage imho. He is beyond redemption. And have you seen the size of his head?

Fair points. Senjutsu's alright; he's maybe like KidSmoove levels of being a fanboy but at least a dangerous, disingenuous shill.

Florian is actually dangerous on top of being a hardcore fanboy and a "campaigner-for-hire" (shill).
 
I'm lost what's the significance of the location of these other cloud servers?

MS leveraged one of them (the Russian one) for political brownie points and as a way to show to regulators the pro-consumer nature of their deal in getting approval. Apparently the EC took these at face-value.

However, that same particular cloud provider's actual location was found to be outside of Russia, and they only did an address change very, very recently.

For some reason I'm forgetting the actual name of that cloud provider but it was one of the first they threw out 10-year deals for.
 

Topher

Gold Member
The thing with the "but Sony" excuse is that it doesn't make sense. Let's assume that what he says is candid (which I highly doubt, but whatever) and that they genuinely do want to sing kumbaya, then what's genuinely stopping them?

  • From a games publishing perspective they only stand to gain in terms of revenue potential.
  • From the perspective on how that impacts Xbox as a console, it remains to be seen but the trajectory isn't looking good as it is and if anyone has deep enough pockets to offset any shortfall in that area then it's Microsoft. And let's be honest, those who have stoutly stuck with them on the hardware side up until this point were always going to stick with them regardless.
  • As an extension on the point above, the revenue gained from genuinely putting their games on every platform has the potential to offset any potential losses seen in the hardware division.
We also hear a lot about how Xbox is going on a different path to Sony, they are beyond being a console now, we now compete with Google and Amazon, yadayadaya. If that's genuinely the case then what's stopping them from no longer seeing Sony as some kind of adversary?

All I'm getting from all of this is that they have such blinding hate for Sony that they are willing to do anything, even if it's to the detriment of their own business (and their mission statement) , in order to do as much harm as possible to Sony/PlayStation.

It's bizarre and it's not rational, but when you have as much money as they have you don't need to be rational.

Basically, to me, "But Sony" is used to demonize Sony as the bully and make Xbox look small and helpless in front of the judge. I don't believe for a second that any of it is in earnest.
 

LiquidRex

Member
Xbox is in the best position it's ever been and Phil is precisely the reason they've gotten Microsoft's full backing and investing over 80 billion is proof of it.

There's a reason Sony is scared.

Some people just fail to see the bigger picture and the long-term future Microsoft is aiming for.
The reason Xbox is in third place is because of bad business decisions, Xbox has had exclusives especially in the 360 era, let's also not forget what Phil Spencer said with regards to Halo in 2011... "If we lose our way with Halo, we lose our way with Xbox." and even today bad decisions are happening, Redfall being one example... I don't have much faith they'll be able to maintain any kind of quality, and I wouldn't be surprised if "the bigger picture" is just more games that reflect the generic titles that currently flood the mobile gaming industry.
 

Jigsaah

Gold Member
MS leveraged one of them (the Russian one) for political brownie points and as a way to show to regulators the pro-consumer nature of their deal in getting approval. Apparently the EC took these at face-value.

However, that same particular cloud provider's actual location was found to be outside of Russia, and they only did an address change very, very recently.

For some reason I'm forgetting the actual name of that cloud provider but it was one of the first they threw out 10-year deals for.
Thanks for clarifying.

Ok, I'm a simple man. I'm having trouble understanding how this plays into the FTC's argument. The goal is to show some semblance of anti-competitive nature of the deal. Since MS did this 10-year deal...how does this lend credence to that argument?
 
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DeepEnigma

Gold Member
MS leveraged one of them (the Russian one) for political brownie points and as a way to show to regulators the pro-consumer nature of their deal in getting approval. Apparently the EC took these at face-value.

However, that same particular cloud provider's actual location was found to be outside of Russia, and they only did an address change very, very recently.

For some reason I'm forgetting the actual name of that cloud provider but it was one of the first they threw out 10-year deals for.
It was a victory for Romania Ukraine!

Boosteroid
 
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Jigsaah

Gold Member
That those deals would only benefit markets that are mostly irrelevant to the US because a US user connecting to a server in Ukraine/Romania would have a poor experience.
OHHHHHH. So these deals are really of no consequence to Xbox in terms of competition and therefore should not be evidence of them being generous with the rights the their games. Got it.

Yea that's fucked up.

EDIT: This indicates to me that they actually do see potential in the cloud market, so much as to sort of gate keep other potential big players from getting the same deals that they are giving to these random folks with much less resources. It make the whole act simply disenginuous. While Cloud may be simply a service bundled with Gamepass right now, there's potential for it to break off and become it's own market with Microsoft poised to lead it. They are protecting that potential.
 
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Astray

Member
The thing with the "but Sony" excuse is that it doesn't make sense. Let's assume that what he says is candid (which I highly doubt, but whatever) and that they genuinely do want to sing kumbaya, then what's genuinely stopping them?

  • From a games publishing perspective they only stand to gain in terms of revenue potential.
  • From the perspective on how that impacts Xbox as a console, it remains to be seen but the trajectory isn't looking good as it is and if anyone has deep enough pockets to offset any shortfall in that area then it's Microsoft. And let's be honest, those who have stoutly stuck with them on the hardware side up until this point were always going to stick with them regardless.
  • As an extension on the point above, the revenue gained from genuinely putting their games on every platform has the potential to offset any potential losses seen in the hardware division.
We also hear a lot about how Xbox is going on a different path to Sony, they are beyond being a console now, we now compete with Google and Amazon, yadayadaya. If that's genuinely the case then what's stopping them from no longer seeing Sony as some kind of adversary?

All I'm getting from all of this is that they have such blinding hate for Sony that they are willing to do anything, even if it's to the detriment of their own business (and their mission statement) , in order to do as much harm as possible to Sony/PlayStation.

It's bizarre and it's not rational, but when you have as much money as they have you don't need to be rational.
I'm legit shocked that even their CEO whines about Sony this much.

You would expect that particular culture to stop at Spencer but apparently the entire company chafes at the idea of actually having to win the consumer's buck.
 

GHG

Member
Basically, to me, "But Sony" is used to demonize Sony as the bully and make Xbox look small and helpless in front of the judge. I don't believe for a second that any of it is in earnest.

Related to the bold, I'm catching up on what took place today and it's becoming increasingly apparent that a lot of the talking points we've frequently seen over the last few years are not organic in nature, they come from base. Even the CEO is at it.

This is a company that is not focused on doing the best that they can, but a company that is hellbent on the destruction of others. I don't even think console is part of their long term planning, especially considering how they have struggled of late. I'm coming round to the line of thinking that they want out (of gaming hardware), but first they need to damage Sony as much as possible and that is their primary mission for now. That way they can say to their fans "well look, even Sony are struggling a lot now, so this doesn't make sense for us anymore, welcome to cloud", because if they just up and quit any time soon I don't think it would go down too well.
 
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Larvana

Member
The thing with the "but Sony" excuse is that it doesn't make sense. Let's assume that what he says is candid (which I highly doubt, but whatever) and that they genuinely do want to sing kumbaya, then what's genuinely stopping them?

  • From a games publishing perspective they only stand to gain in terms of revenue potential.
  • From the perspective on how that impacts Xbox as a console, it remains to be seen but the trajectory isn't looking good as it is and if anyone has deep enough pockets to offset any shortfall in that area then it's Microsoft. And let's be honest, those who have stoutly stuck with them on the hardware side up until this point were always going to stick with them regardless.
  • As an extension on the point above, the revenue gained from genuinely putting their games on every platform has the potential to offset any potential losses seen in the hardware division.
We also hear a lot about how Xbox is going on a different path to Sony, they are beyond being a console now, we now compete with Google and Amazon, yadayadaya. If that's genuinely the case then what's stopping them from no longer seeing Sony as some kind of adversary?

All I'm getting from all of this is that they have such blinding hate for Sony that they are willing to do anything, even if it's to the detriment of their own business (and their mission statement) , in order to do as much harm as possible to Sony/PlayStation.

It's bizarre and it's not rational, but when you have as much money as they have you don't need to be rational.
Funny that considering Playstation have admitted before hand how much they wanted to destroy Xbox, but I can see why you'd not want to accept that. Oh that's right how could I forget, it's called business I get your blind hate for Microsoft, but the fact you are in denial about playstation speaks volumes. :messenger_grimmacing_
 

DrFigs

Member
Funny that considering Playstation have admitted before hand how much they wanted to destroy Xbox, but I can see why you'd not want to accept that. Oh that's right how could I forget, it's called business I get your blind hate for Microsoft, but the fact you are in denial about playstation speaks volumes. :messenger_grimmacing_
You're missing the point. Jim Ryan didn't make a dumb ass statement about getting rid of exclusives. This goofy bald head freak did.
 

GHG

Member
Funny that considering Playstation have admitted before hand how much they wanted to destroy Xbox, but I can see why you'd not want to accept that. Oh that's right how could I forget, it's called business I get your blind hate for Microsoft, but the fact you are in denial about playstation speaks volumes. :messenger_grimmacing_

Something something, personal personal, SonyToo™.

go away GIF


Come back to me when you can actually address the points I've made. Return to base and seek consultation if necessary.
 
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Jimmy_liv

Member
It's looking like this deal will go through now, and Microsoft will be able to force Sony out by default within the next 10 years, Sony's argument's weren't strong enough in the FTC hearing, Jim Ryan has failed imo.

Microsoft will have the ability to buy up more, they'll get more pushback but it won't matter... This deal will make third party studios weaker and be forced to join the Microsoft eco system because there won't be anywhere else to go in the long run.
When Nintendo have successfully thrived on just their 1p offerings for a couple of generations, nobody but Sony will put Sony out of the gaming industry
 

Jigsaah

Gold Member
I'm gonna try to simplify this in caveman terms, if somebody is coming to kill me...I pretty much am more inclined to want to kill them.

I mean, does it really need to get more complicated than that?

That's also called competition.

I think what the FTC needs is to find something beyond what Sony is already doing. You can't point the finger in any significant way at Microsoft if Sony is doing the same thing.

This latest information about the cloud deals with various countries is really the first thing I've seen that Sony has not replicated in some manner.

Score a point for the FTC.
 
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Astray

Member
If Microsoft is so concerned about Sony snatching up the exclusives then an easier route would have been inviting an antitrust suit on Sony.

But the problem with that route is it makes it harder for them to be anti-competitive themselves, so instead their solution is to just gobble up all the IP holder companies and reduce their revenues (and your competitors') to dust via day 1 Gamepass.

Every email I've seen out of this company's gaming division suggests they have 0 clue how to compete without moneyhatting the entire IPs away. And even then they can find a way to fail (Bethesda acquisition has been an entire THUD in commercial terms so far).
 

Pelta88

Member
I mean, they state explicitly that they 'can't win' and have proposed internally using the allocated XBOX budget and just going the mobile route.

I think that what they're most afraid of is the PR blow back. What's sad to me is that the influencer space, knowing what we know now, looks like it was set up to quell dissent of the eventual move from console to mobile.

It's clear that they are losing a ton of money. And while I'm sure some shill will remind us of Microsoft's market cap, it's clear that XBOX as a division is a gargantuan money sink. This 70 Billion feels like the end of the line. A last ditch effort. If this deal fails, the gaming industry is going to shift. Thankfully, XBOX's presence and therefore impact, is minimal. Minimal to the point where outside of the US I doubt it'll be felt.
 
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OHHHHHH. So these deals are really of no consequence to Xbox in terms of competition and therefore should not be evidence of them being generous with the rights the their games. Got it.

Yea that's fucked up.

EDIT: This indicates to me that they actually do see potential in the cloud market, so much as to sort of gate keep other potential big players from getting the same deals that they are giving to these random folks with much less resources. It make the whole act simply disenginuous. While Cloud may be simply a service bundled with Gamepass right now, there's potential for it to break off and become it's own market with Microsoft poised to lead it. They are protecting that potential.

Yeah, Three explained it quite well. I think it could also be used to further show why MS refused to offer these 10-year deals with their biggest (actual-not-actual?) competitors, like Google and Amazon. Why enable big competitors with your content for cloud for 10 years when that could give them a chance to capitalize and outdo you?

Which, in itself is something I feel every company would try avoid doing, TBH. Microsoft's problem is that it shows a hypocrisy in their statements with the public and the showboating they are doing with regulators in hopes of getting the deal approved, when in actuality just validating the concerns of certain regulatory bodies.
 

Three

Member
OHHHHHH. So these deals are really of no consequence to Xbox in terms of competition and therefore should not be evidence of them being generous with the rights the their games. Got it.

Yea that's fucked up.

EDIT: This indicates to me that they actually do see potential in the cloud market, so much as to sort of gate keep other potential big players from getting the same deals that they are giving to these random folks with much less resources. It make the whole act simply disenginuous. While Cloud may be simply a service bundled with Gamepass right now, there's potential for it to break off and become it's own market with Microsoft poised to lead it. They are protecting that potential.
In all fairness to MS the deal with GFN is relevant to the US but Nvidia's business model of BYOG isn't a threat to them and MS can unilaterally pull the plug on the agreement whenever they feel like it.
 

Nubulax

Member
In all fairness to MS the deal with GFN is relevant to the US but Nvidia's business model of BYOG isn't a threat to them and MS can unilaterally pull the plug on the agreement whenever they feel like it.
I actually have a question relating to Nvidia.... why arent they allowed to stream the game if the user already has purchased it. At that point isnt it basically just a hardware rental service? I have never really got why this isnt allowed if the dev has already gotten paid for the game.
 

LiquidRex

Member
When Nintendo have successfully thrived on just their 1p offerings for a couple of generations, nobody but Sony will put Sony out of the gaming industry
My point is this is bigger than anything we've seen before... Microsoft having the power to put a big player on its gamepass service to fund future buyouts, games becoming less inventive and more like mobile clones which also generate large amounts of revenue, though why I'll never understand 🤦‍♂️... Sony generates a lot of its revenue from third party to fund it's big first party titles... Sony will have to change its tactics if this deal does go through, but it will be like starting all over again.
 

Jigsaah

Gold Member
In all fairness to MS the deal with GFN is relevant to the US but Nvidia's business model of BYOG isn't a threat to them and MS can unilaterally pull the plug on the agreement whenever they feel like it.
Is BYOG...Bring your own game? Does this mean in order to play on GeForce Now, the customer has to already own the game?
 
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