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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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bxrz

Member
And you can protect consumers only by ensuring the survival of competitors in the industry.

The Young And The Restless Joke GIF by CBS
That would be true if they acknowledged all competitors but they didn't. They made some BS definition that nobody has ever heard of prior to all of this to exclude Nintendo and Valve from the conversation just to protect one competitor. Sony.
 
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Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
That would be true if they acknowledged all competitors but they didn't. They made some BS definition that nobody has ever heard of prior to this to exclude Nintendo and Valve from the conversation just to protect one competitor. Sony.
Well, they aren't completely wrong. Only Xbox and Sony are direct competitors, especially in this case because COD isn't even available on Nintendo. So FTC can't "protect Nintendo" and ensure that COD stays on Nintendo because ... it's not even on Nintendo.

Besides, Microsoft's internal documents also suggest that Nintendo isn't a direct competitor and has little to no bearings on Xbox's strategy, which is based primarily on PlayStation.

So, in a way, FTC is only following what Microsoft itself had been saying (up until this lawsuit came up).
 
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DeepEnigma

Gold Member
Well, they aren't completely wrong. Only Xbox and Sony are direct competitors, especially in this case because COD isn't even available on Nintendo. So FTC can't "protect Nintendo" and ensure that COD stays on Nintendo because ... it's not even on Nintendo.

Besides, Microsoft's internal documents also suggest that Nintendo isn't a direct competitor and has little to no bearings on Xbox's strategy, which is based primarily on PlayStation.

So, in a way, FTC is only following what Microsoft itself had been saying (up until this lawsuit came up).
200.gif
 

bxrz

Member
Well, they aren't completely wrong. Only Xbox and Sony are direct competitors, especially in this case because COD isn't even available on Nintendo. So FTC can't "protect Nintendo" and ensure that COD stays on Nintendo because ... it's not there.

Besides, Microsoft's internal documents also suggest that Nintendo isn't a direct competitor and has little to no bearings on Xbox's strategy, which is based primarily on PlayStation.

So, in a way, FTC is only following what Microsoft itself had been saying (up until this lawsuit came up).
They're all competitors. They're all platform holders that fight for consumer's money and time that want to play video games. The only main difference is the strategies used to achieve that

Microsoft also said Google and Amazon are their competitiors. FTC excluded them aswell.

I don't really need to argue it. The FTC not filing in federal court tells you all you need to know about how strong they think their case is.
 

geary

Member
CoD might die in 2 years…In this industry there’s no guarantee a new game will become flavour of the year. PUBG, Apex and Genshin Impact come from nowhere and bow they are mastodonts. You need only a small scandal and …puff…billions sales forecasted vanished.Next big thing might be around the corner…maybe from Sony’s side.
 
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feynoob

Gold Member
CoD might die in 2 years…In this industry there’s no guarantee a new game will become flavour of the year. PUBG, Apex and Genshin Impact come from nowhere and bow they are mastodonts. You need only a small scandal and …puff…billions sales forecasted vanished.Next big thing might be around the corner…maybe from Sony’s side.
COD survived an incident which caused Activision to sell itself.
If it can survive that, I don't know what will bring it down.
 

Banjo64

cumsessed
How many different Minecraft spinoff games did Mojang make before the acquisition? My point is MS acquisitions significantly change what studios are capable of than before they were acquired. That includes improved scope of titles and brand new titles. Just like CoD hitting Nintendo platforms when was not planned before the acquisition. Games aren't free to develop so obviously the additional funding made those games possible. Sorry you couldn't put those ideas together.
Your point was pretty explicit that Minecraft Dungeons and Legends wouldn’t exist without Microsoft - you don’t have any way of knowing that and logic dictates that you are wrong.

If the shoe fits wear it. I never claimed Banjo64 Banjo64 said anything. I was making a broader point about what many here have claimed.
Why say it to me in a conversation with me then? Stick your random thoughts in the drawer next time. If I say something directly to someone it’s usually aimed at that person.
 

geary

Member
COD survived an incident which caused Activision to sell itself.
If it can survive that, I don't know what will bring it down.
A good BF2042 and a bad MW2 could have done it, but the stars didnt align.

Also, without Infinity Ward, CoD is nothing. If their main ppl leave, that will be a hard period for CoD.
 
The extended deadline means that MS now has to decide if it will risk another Billion Dollars pursuing this deal even though they would have to litigate the merits of the deal after closing (absent a settlement and/or an extension beyond all regulatory and court challenges). Before this extension, MS only had to decide if it would risk another 1/2 Billion in the short term while waiting to see how many fights they really have to get this approved. As an aside, the reason is that the termination fee goes from 2 Billion now, to 2.5 Billion on 1/18. And then from 2.5 Billion to 3 Billion on 4/18. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a...icrosoft-buyout-deal-is-terminated-2022-01-19 is the source for the escalating fees.

Some people seem confident the CMA will approve this. Maybe they will, but this delay alone puts MS in a really tough spot. Having to bet another BILLION dollars on approval with one challenge already started in baby steps phase, and another major country's decision reserved until after the bet locks in, is an incredibly difficult decision I would think.

Right now I wouldn't be shocked if top MS people are already setting up meetings to discuss whether to let gaming continue this pursuit. Of course, they are such a big company maybe they couldn't care less about the risk. But one thing seems sure, and that is EU now has more power than anyone in this deal today. If EU says no, or delays decision until after 4/18, then I bet MS walks.

Microsoft isn't concerned by this delay. They're encouraged by the delay. If they intended to block it they already have their phase 1 rationale and reasonings. Remember they last reported they got a ton of outside submissions from the public, 75% of which were pro merger. They are saying they need to look into those, they need look at all the information they got from Microsoft and Activision (which was a ton of evidence and documentation that was redacted from Microsoft's 100+ page response to phase 1) and they also got information from 3rd parties.

I think an extension of the deadline favors Microsoft as it's potentially a sign that Microsoft and Activision showed and explain things to them that have possibly convinced them. As they always said, phase 2 is a far deeper process with a higher proof standard. It's getting approved.
 
Your point was pretty explicit that Minecraft Dungeons and Legends wouldn’t exist without Microsoft - you don’t have any way of knowing that and logic dictates that you are wrong.
I'd like to see Mojang make those games without MS' support. There is no evidence of any spinoff titles in development prior to the acquisition. MS expanded the IP to more platforms and logic dictates that MS was the reason these new spinoff games exist especially seeing how many of their other studios expanded post acquisition. You act like these games were complete and MS purchased Mojang after they shipped.

If it makes you feel better I don't think Uncharted would have been made by Naughty Dog had they not be been bought by Sony. Being acquired is the main reason many of these studios reached their full potential. Don't see any reason to deny that reality. Minecraft became a bigger property because of MS.
Why say it to me in a conversation with me then? Stick your random thoughts in the drawer next time. If I say something directly to someone it’s usually aimed at that person.
I am not making a new post to add an additional thought. There was a clear break between paragraphs. You don't need to respond to anything I write in the first place. Feel free to ignore what doesn't relate to you. I don't respond to everything you type either.
 

feynoob

Gold Member
MS has their eyes on Activision. They don't care if they lose that $3 billions as long as they have a chance closing this deal. And they have that chance, due to their market share.
 
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My daughter is part of the problem, she loves xCloud on her Macbook.
I wonder if someone got some early preview of the SCOTUS ruling and warned them to take it down a few notches?

Yeah, screeching at the government about the government probably isn't the best strategy. There's no need for unconstitutional BS. At least they walked it back.
 
I wonder if someone got some early preview of the SCOTUS ruling and warned them to take it down a few notches?


I agree with one thing you're implying - that language was almost certainly not in there by accident. We learned a couple new things recently.

The FTC is now open to settlement talks, and is even agreeing to an accelerated timetable with Microsoft. And now Microsoft immediately makes changes to its filing? Not sure if it's related to anything on the CMA side of things, but seems to be like negotiations could be afoot.

I highly doubt that with a $68.7 billion deal and with so many lawyers looking at it that Microsoft's and Activision's lawyers failed to catch what a bunch of gamers all did. So yes, something has changed recently behind the scenes. What it is, we shall find out.



qzlmJT3.png
 
My daughter is part of the problem, she loves xCloud on her Macbook.


Yeah, screeching at the government about the government probably isn't the best strategy. There's no need for unconstitutional BS. At least they walked it back.

Trust that language was meant for the Supreme Court and to signal to the FTC they're willing to go that far. However, something clearly changed recently.
 

NickFire

Member
Microsoft isn't concerned by this delay. They're encouraged by the delay. If they intended to block it they already have their phase 1 rationale and reasonings. Remember they last reported they got a ton of outside submissions from the public, 75% of which were pro merger. They are saying they need to look into those, they need look at all the information they got from Microsoft and Activision (which was a ton of evidence and documentation that was redacted from Microsoft's 100+ page response to phase 1) and they also got information from 3rd parties.

I think an extension of the deadline favors Microsoft as it's potentially a sign that Microsoft and Activision showed and explain things to them that have possibly convinced them. As they always said, phase 2 is a far deeper process with a higher proof standard. It's getting approved.
MS might not be concerned about losing 3 or 2.5 B's instead of 2 B's, simply because they are that big. But dude, you really think they are encouraged by the possibility of these decisions being delayed long enough to make them increase their risk before knowing how many legal fights they face? Just no. Just no.
 
MS might not be concerned about losing 3 or 2.5 B's instead of 2 B's, simply because they are that big. But dude, you really think they are encouraged by the possibility of these decisions being delayed long enough to make them increase their risk before knowing how many legal fights they face? Just no. Just no.

The assumption you're making is that Microsoft has not been made aware of exactly why the delay is occurring. Microsoft is on constant communication with these regulators. Microsoft could already know what the decision is in the UK or EC for all we know. Assume talks are taking place behind the scenes.
 

NickFire

Member
I wonder if someone got some early preview of the SCOTUS ruling and warned them to take it down a few notches?
Entirely possible. Also possible would be general good will (ie: don't make more enemies than necessary with feds). Another possibility would be to streamline litigation, by maybe reducing the amount of issues that cause remands (where an appeal's court rules on one issue and sends case back to trial court for new decision in line with decision on just one issue, which then gets appealed, rinse and repeat).

The assumption you're making is that Microsoft has not been made aware of exactly why the delay is occurring. Microsoft is on constant communication with these regulators. Microsoft could already know what the decision is in the UK or EC for all we know. Assume talks are taking place behind the scenes.

Your entire argument against reported escalation dates / amounts (and common sense) is premised on me not assuming something you are assuming. Absurd.

Think about what you are saying, cause you are saying MS is excited by a delay because you assume the CMA told MS they are delaying the opinion because it will make MS happy, and MS should not worry about 1/2 to 1 Billion Dollars because of this super secret promise that could never be enforced. Sure.
 
Entirely possible. Also possible would be general good will (ie: don't make more enemies than necessary with feds). Another possibility would be to streamline litigation, by maybe reducing the amount of issues that cause remands (where an appeal's court rules on one issue and sends case back to trial court for new decision in line with decision on just one issue, which then gets appealed, rinse and repeat).



Your entire argument against reported escalation dates / amounts (and common sense) is premised on me not assuming something you are assuming. Absurd.

Think about what you are saying, cause you are saying MS is excited by a delay because you assume the CMA told MS they are delaying the opinion because it will make MS happy, and MS should not worry about 1/2 to 1 Billion Dollars because of this super secret promise that could never be enforced. Sure.

Microsoft's outside window for their deal to close, as per what they told the administrative law judge in the FTC case is July 18th, 2023. Microsoft has always been prepared for anything to fall within that window. They're not fretting over an extension that goes to march or april or may at this stage.

Microsoft filed this amended complaint the same day of the hearing. That's mighty interesting indeed. https://www.resetera.com/threads/th...update-approved-in-chile.633344/post-99238726

"There is no way that was a mistake.

And the amended answer was filed the same day of the pre-hearing. So, my guess would that they are doing it as a sign of good faith because they are restarting negotiations or seriously trying to."
 
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NickFire

Member
Microsoft's outside window for their deal to close, as per what they told the administrative law judge in the FTC case is July 18th, 2023. Microsoft has always been prepared for anything to fall within that window. They're not fretting over an extension that goes to march or april or may at this stage.

Microsoft filed this amended complaint the same day of the hearing. That's mighty interesting indeed. https://www.resetera.com/threads/th...update-approved-in-chile.633344/post-99238726
If they never cared about the cost to terminate, then why does the cost increase over time instead of starting and stopping with the cost on July 18, 2023???????????????????????????????????

Do you really think Bobby was like: "Phil, don't be crazy. We don't want 3 Billion regardless of when the deal ends. We want you to have the right to terminate the deal for less if it comes in January or April instead of July."
 
If they never cared about the cost to terminate, then why does the cost increase over time instead of starting and stopping with the cost on July 18, 2023???????????????????????????????????

Do you really think Bobby was like: "Phil, don't be crazy. We don't want 3 Billion regardless of when the deal ends. We want you to have the right to terminate the deal for less if it comes in January or April instead of July."

You realize you're wasting your time trying to hammer away on this one point, right? What date did Microsoft mention in front of a judge? Did they mention the January date or a February date? Or did they mention the July date? They mentioned the absolute deadline of their merger agreement. When Microsoft said they expect the deal to close within their Fiscal Year 2023, do you know when that ends? End of June this year. Everything up to that point is still within their window.

And I'm stunned you remotely think that Activision and Microsoft aren't more than willing to extend any deadline if it came to it... just like other companies have sometimes had to do. I believe Disney extended their Fox deal also. Anyway, moving on. :)
 
If they never cared about the cost to terminate, then why does the cost increase over time instead of starting and stopping with the cost on July 18, 2023???????????????????????????????????

Do you really think Bobby was like: "Phil, don't be crazy. We don't want 3 Billion regardless of when the deal ends. We want you to have the right to terminate the deal for less if it comes in January or April instead of July."
The ever increasing cost of termination fees is to show Activision the seriousness of MS' offer to purchase. The longer the process drags on the more risk Activision is under if it ultimately fails. They have to give Activision coverage for that possibility. All sides want the deal to successfully conclude in a merger.
 

Pelta88

Member
The assumption you're making is that Microsoft has not been made aware of exactly why the delay is occurring. Microsoft is on constant communication with these regulators. Microsoft could already know what the decision is in the UK or EC for all we know. Assume talks are taking place behind the scenes.

I'm presuming the opposite based on how presumptive Microsoft went into this acquisition. As a corporation basic objections seemed to catch them off guard despite this being one of the biggest deals in history.

They've been almost hostile to the FTC. "Unconstitutional" is not just a foray into right-wing political talking points but a sign, according to one hedge fund manager, that communication behind the scenes is stagnant at best.
 

NickFire

Member
The ever increasing cost of termination fees is to show Activision the seriousness of MS' offer to purchase. The longer the process drags on the more risk Activision is under if it ultimately fails. They have to give Activision coverage for that possibility. All sides want the deal to successfully conclude in a merger.
Yes, 100%.

You realize you're wasting your time trying to hammer away on this one point, right? What date did Microsoft mention in front of a judge? Did they mention the January date or a February date? Or did they mention the July date? They mentioned the absolute deadline of their merger agreement. When Microsoft said they expect the deal to close within their Fiscal Year 2023, do you know when that ends? End of June this year. Everything up to that point is still within their window.

And I'm stunned you remotely think that Activision and Microsoft aren't more than willing to extend any deadline if it came to it... just like other companies have sometimes had to do. I believe Disney extended their Fox deal also. Anyway, moving on. :)
You are only stunned because you don't read and think before responding. Just read your own post, #17417, which has a direct quote from me that you responded to. My quote literally includes "(absent a settlement and/or an extension beyond all regulatory and court challenges)." Literally acknowledged what you say stunned you because I did not consider it in your mind, even though you literally responded to it after I raised it.

And your point about mentioning the outside date in court has no relevance to what you and I are actually talking about.
 

feynoob

Gold Member
Idas.
There is a new report from MLex about the case against the FTC and constitutional issues:

- MS and ABK have deliberately, if discreetly, raised constitutional issues in the legal briefs submitted to the FTC to preserve constitutional arguments in the event of an appeal of any action by the agency against the companies' merger.

- There are multiple constitutional challenges to the FTC's judicial authority right now, and if one succeeds, MS and ABK want to be able to capitalize.

- The cases are: Axon Enterprise, Altria-JUUL, Meta-Within, Illumina-Grail and MS/ABK. The arguments are different in each case, but all of the challenges invoke fundamental legal issues.

- Beth Wilkinson, who is currently representing Microsoft, is also one of the Altria-JUUL lawyers.

- The arguments from MS and ABK are similar to the Axon case, the FTC's administrative procedure violates: 1) the separation of powers doctrine in Article II; 2) the assignment in Article III of legal powers to the judicial branch of the federal government and 3) the Constitution's equal-protection and due-process clauses.

- The Supreme Court is also currently considering a similar case to Axon‘s regarding the Securities and Exchange Commission, the SEC v. Cochran, one where a Supreme Court verdict would affect the FTC.

- MS and ABK could raise constitutional issues during preliminary injunction proceedings, if the FTC pursues that route to prevent the transaction from closing. But because the federal district judge in the Meta-Within case threw out constitution-based defenses, the utility of such claims is open to question.

- Lanny Davis, who represented Axon in its initial lawsuit against the FTC and its appeal to the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, says he sees a significant difference in the approaches of MS and Axon: Axon immediately filed a lawsuit in US District Court claiming the FTC's administrative court process was unconstitutional, while MS and ABK merely catalogued the constitutional issues at the bottom of their briefs opposing the FTC's decision.

As Beth Wilkinson said on Monday, it looks like they are preparing for all options.
 

Elios83

Member


Aww, it got a bit less fun

Lol as if further proof was needed that these companies will say everything and its opposite to try to reach their goals :messenger_grinning_sweat::messenger_tears_of_joy:

In any case I see this thread is just running in circles and it's kinda pointless, the only new development is that CMA has delayed their decision even further and if remedies are being asked we might find out in late January/early February.
FTC seems to be playing a chess game to take time, forcing MS to either settle or give up and hoping that others like the CMA can do the actual job and they can take part of the merit indirectly.
 
Lol as if further proof was needed that these companies will say everything and its opposite to try to reach their goals :messenger_grinning_sweat::messenger_tears_of_joy:

In any case I see this thread is just running in circles and it's kinda pointless, the only new development is that CMA has delayed their decision even further and if remedies are being asked we might find out in late January/early February.
FTC seems to be playing a chess game to take time, forcing MS to either settle or give up and hoping that others like the CMA can do the actual job and they can take part of the merit indirectly.

This is why those arguments were in there. None of it was "accidental"

OYXA38F.jpg
 
Well, they aren't completely wrong. Only Xbox and Sony are direct competitors, especially in this case because COD isn't even available on Nintendo. So FTC can't "protect Nintendo" and ensure that COD stays on Nintendo because ... it's not even on Nintendo.

Besides, Microsoft's internal documents also suggest that Nintendo isn't a direct competitor and has little to no bearings on Xbox's strategy, which is based primarily on PlayStation.

So, in a way, FTC is only following what Microsoft itself had been saying (up until this lawsuit came up).
But yet the FTC went into bullshit about how this would give MS an advantage with their streaming service, which the whole idea of is that you don't need a console to play it.
They made the mistake of taking Sony's submission as gospel and now they have egg on their face.
They went full retard.
Microsoft is the only console maker that puts all their games day and date on to PC.
The actions of the FTC was to protect Sony's position as the number 1 console company.
 
Well, they aren't completely wrong. Only Xbox and Sony are direct competitors, especially in this case because COD isn't even available on Nintendo. So FTC can't "protect Nintendo" and ensure that COD stays on Nintendo because ... it's not even on Nintendo.

Besides, Microsoft's internal documents also suggest that Nintendo isn't a direct competitor and has little to no bearings on Xbox's strategy, which is based primarily on PlayStation.

So, in a way, FTC is only following what Microsoft itself had been saying (up until this lawsuit came up).

How can Nintendo have little to no bearing on Xbox's strategy when Xbox studios release games to Nintendo platforms like Switch? Doom Eternal, Skyrim, Minecraft, Ori and the Will of the Wisps, Minecraft Dungeons, Minecraft Legends this year, etc.

That right there is proof that, to Microsoft, Nintendo is an important enough part of their strategy to warrant releasing games on Nintendo. They have a 10 year commitment with Nintendo, which does actually mean something as a company who has demonstrated they will support Nintendo for financial benefit. The mistake everybody including the FTC makes is ONLY trying to view Nintendo as a direct competitor to Xbox, and not as a relevant aspect of Microsoft's financial calculus, which is very important also in merger reviews as well as consumer benefits, the financial incentives. Microsoft wants to release COD on Nintendo platforms because it will literally make them more money. They don't need to view Nintendo the same way they might view Sony for that to be true.

And in pursuing releases on Nintendo devices that has direct consumer benefits by expanding the available market for Call of Duty beyond just where it is currently. That matters. You think because it isn't on Nintendo yet it isn't relevant? That's not how judges view these things. It is a harmful element of any attempt by FTC to block it in a court of law. Consumer benefits are a powerful element in merger reviews. It isn't FTC's job to claim what game isn't or isn't relevant to the Nintendo audience, and such an argument will hold no weight in court. Do companies besides Nintendo release games on Nintendo devices? If the answer is yes then there must be a real financial as well as consumer benefit to doing so, or else why bother? They will have to convince a judge that what countless other videogame companies are doing by supporting Nintendo makes total sense for them, but somehow makes zero sense for Microsoft with Activision Blizzard properties. Hell, even Diablo III is also on Switch. Monster Hunter Rise that comes to Xbox soon arrived nearly 2 years ago for Switch.

Anyway, I can't wait till everybody sees the end result. :)
 
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