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[Thirty7ven]

But in Sony funding it they completely blocked it off another platform, I mean why not fund it to keep the game alive and have a timed exclusive?

Without knowing the full details it’s hard to know. Full exclusive probably means Sony funded a lot of it, from dev to marketing. The question should be why did Capcom go along with it? Sounds like they weren’t financially secure at the time.

For example Square actually had Sony help bail them out by buying shares on the premise that they would sell them back later.

 

[HoofHearted]

HoofHearted

Let's start afresh...tell me your opinion,

What are the CMA, EC and FTC all going to do (in your opinion) from where we are currently at in regulation?

Personally - I really don't give a rat's ass one way or the other.. but since you've asked - my current "guess" as of this moment based on the actual updates/news available and not the random chatter here:

• CMA will eventually approve the deal - most likely will require some remediations/agreements to be put in place - but wouldn't be surprised if they even approve with no changes, or relatively "minor" ones of no actual consequence
• EC - will eventually approve the deal - (see above)
• FTC - Legal precedent has already been set with respect to the earlier lawsuit - will approve - especially if/when the two above approve

Overall - generally speaking - I don't see any legal reason here to block this deal. Only ongoing conjecture regarding COD and the size (amount) of the deal. I also don't believe this will sway the needle dramatically in overall market share in favor of Xbox if approved.

Quite honestly - if Sony depends as much on COD as many have stated here - they're in bigger trouble than they know.

I also don't believe MS will take COD exclusive anytime soon (perhaps long term - but that is literally years from now).

*all of these opinions are my own and not representative of the US, UK, Neogaf forum members. Perhaps Mongolia - haven't fully checked with them yet.

 

[DeepEnigma]

SF5 was likely not going to be made at all without Sony funding it. Because it did well, that allowed SF6 to be greenlit internally by Capcom without external funding support so that it launched day and date on Xbox

Maybe you should be thankful Sony funded SF5 exclusively?



I dunno, maybe Square feels the port isn’t worth their time? No idea, but the latest we know of it’s no longer required to be exclusive

Could also be argued that the success of SF5 and funding helped give Capcom money to invest in their latest great comeback. They were in some dire straights around the time that SF5 deal was made and did not want to invest too much internally, almost similar to Square. Then came Monster Hunter and now they are having success after success even if their formula is copy/paste remakes. People like them tho and they are doing a good job with them.

There would be no Dragon's Dogma 2 if the ship didn't turn around.

Without knowing the full details it’s hard to know. Full exclusive probably means Sony funded a lot of it, from dev to marketing. The question should be why did Capcom go along with it? Sounds like they weren’t financially secure at the time.

For example Square actually had Sony help bail them out by buying shares on the premise that they would sell them back later.

Yep. Seeing a similar pattern. Capcom levered their prior IPs with a great remake formula, maybe Square should or will do the same since unloading the Western IPs.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Without knowing the full details it’s hard to know. Full exclusive probably means Sony funded a lot of it, from dev to marketing. The question should be why did Capcom go along with it? Sounds like they weren’t financially secure at the time.

For example Square actually had Sony help bail them out by buying shares on the premise that they would sell them back later.

Yep

And Sony was bailing out these projects because Capcom / Square couldn’t bear the risk themselves

ATVI being bought by MS doesn’t help struggling projects, it just bails out greedy Bobby Kotick. CoD is not at risk of not being made

 

[Varteras]

Personally - I really don't give a rat's ass one way or the other.. but since you've asked - my current "guess" as of this moment based on the actual updates/news available and not the random chatter here:

• CMA will eventually approve the deal - most likely will require some remediations/agreements to be put in place - but wouldn't be surprised if they even approve with no changes, or relatively "minor" ones of no actual consequence
• EC - will eventually approve the deal - (see above)
• FTC - Legal precedent has already been set with respect to the earlier lawsuit - will approve - especially if/when the two above approve

Overall - generally speaking - I don't see any legal reason here to block this deal. Only ongoing conjecture regarding COD and the size (amount) of the deal. I also don't believe this will sway the needle dramatically in overall market share in favor of Xbox if approved.

Quite honestly - if Sony depends as much on COD as many have stated here - they're in bigger trouble than they know.

I also don't believe MS will take COD exclusive anytime soon (perhaps long term - but that is literally years from now).

*all of these opinions are my own and not representative of the US, UK, Neogaf forum members. Perhaps Mongolia - haven't fully checked with them yet.

I just checked with Mongolia. They said they never asked you but they nonetheless approve if you wish to speak for them.

 

[quest]

Could also be argued that the success of SF5 and funding helped give Capcom money to invest in their latest great comeback. They were in some dire straights around the time that SF5 deal was made and did not want to invest internally, almost similar to Square. Now they are having success after success even if their formula is copy/paste remakes and Monster Hunter. People like them tho and they are doing a good job with them.

There would be no Dragon's Dogma 2 if the ship didn't turn around.


Yep. Seeing a similar pattern. Capcom levered their prior IPs with a great remake formula.

I doubt a title that in 3 years sold 3.7 million copies saved the company. It only sold 1.4 million near the launch.

Street Fighter 5 Has Finally Surpassed Sales of Vanilla Street Fighter 4

Capcom has updated the sales figure of their various games on platinum sellers page and confirmed that Street Fighter 5 has outsold Street Fighter 4.

twistedvoxel.com

The sales of the game were rather slow but after 3 years, it has now surpassed the lifetime sales of Street Fighter 4 which currently stands at 3.4 million. Street Fighter 5 has now shipped 3.7 million units after the update of Capcom Platinum Sellers page today.

Street Fighter 5's sold 1.4m copies

Street Fighter 5 has sold 1.4m copies, Capcom has announced.That's across PlayStation 4, PC and includes download copie…

www.eurogamer.net

Street Fighter 5 has sold 1.4m copies, Capcom has announced. That's across PlayStation 4, PC and includes download copies. Those sales were from release in February up to 31st March.

Capcom had hoped to sell 2m copies of the fighting game by the end of its financial year. Despite the 600,000 unit shortfall, Capcom said Street Fighter 5 "maintained steady sales mainly overseas".

 

[POKEYCLYDE]

I think you are being very, very generous with your calculations. See details below:

Spoiler: Math

A COD installment sells around 30M on ALL PLATFORMs over its entire lifetime. 40M COD base game sales on Playstation alone in a year is ludicrously high, it's impossible. In 2021 all CODs combined sold 25M on all platforms combined in a year.

Unless gamepass had zero growth since Jan 2022 (25M), which would be both alarming and surprising I doubt I've doubled gamepass subs. In Dec 2022 they said they set a gamepass record and hit 38% growth in subscribers for the fiscal year (ending June 2022). Their target was actually 73% growth before major releases like starfield, redfall, FM, etc. Gamepass subs are likely in the mid 30M already (Mar 2023). Going by that and the fact that this is before the major Activison and Zenimax titles hit gamepass I would say my 40-50M sub estimate would even be on the low side come 2025 when MS are allowed to remove COD (the Sony contracts end).
Lets say of the 25M CoD sales in a year 50% are on PS and the rest PC and xbox combined.
($70*12.5million)/(50million*12months) = $1.45 per month increase

A $1.45 a month increase to regain all CoD sales lost on Playstation.

The fact is, you can't you use the revenue/profit from a different decision to make up for the costs of this decision.

Regulators have to view the costs of taking CoD off Playstation and making it exclusive to Xbox, VS the benefit of taking CoD off Playstation and making it exclusive to Xbox.

It's not that Microsoft couldn't possibly find a way to cover the costs of making CoD exclusive, it's that the benefit of making CoD exclusive doesn't cover those costs.

Just as easily, Microsoft could probably raise the price of a realm subscription on Minecraft by $1 and cover the costs of making CoD exclusive. But that doesn't mean making CoD exclusive makes any sense.

Whatever way you slice it, Microsoft will be losing money if they make CoD exclusive.
In your mind:
The benefit of raising Gamepass prices covers the costs of making CoD exclusive. (Therefore it's financially sound)

Where as you should view it as:
We are losing the revenue/profit of raising Gamepass prices to cover the costs of making CoD exclusive. (We are losing Xmillions/billions in profit)

Spoiler: My numbers

As for my numbers, I had a 15% switch rate, that is how I derived the 6M number. Replace 40M with any number and the math is still the same. The switchers could pay nearly 5x as much and still fall short of the losses incurred from not selling CoD on Playstation.

 

[DeepEnigma]

I doubt a title that in 3 years sold 3.7 million copies saved the company. It only sold 1.4 million near the launch.

Street Fighter 5 Has Finally Surpassed Sales of Vanilla Street Fighter 4

Capcom has updated the sales figure of their various games on platinum sellers page and confirmed that Street Fighter 5 has outsold Street Fighter 4.

twistedvoxel.com

The sales of the game were rather slow but after 3 years, it has now surpassed the lifetime sales of Street Fighter 4 which currently stands at 3.4 million. Street Fighter 5 has now shipped 3.7 million units after the update of Capcom Platinum Sellers page today.

Street Fighter 5's sold 1.4m copies

Street Fighter 5 has sold 1.4m copies, Capcom has announced.That's across PlayStation 4, PC and includes download copie…

www.eurogamer.net

Street Fighter 5 has sold 1.4m copies, Capcom has announced. That's across PlayStation 4, PC and includes download copies. Those sales were from release in February up to 31st March.

Capcom had hoped to sell 2m copies of the fighting game by the end of its financial year. Despite the 600,000 unit shortfall, Capcom said Street Fighter 5 "maintained steady sales mainly overseas".

What part of funding and investment is hard for you to grasp?

 

[Varteras]

What part of funding and investment is hard for you to grasp?

The part where they gave them money in advance so they didn't have to worry about getting huge sales right off the bat. Tell me how that works again. I've been drinking

 

[DeepEnigma]

The part where they gave them money in advance so they didn't have to worry about getting huge sales right off the bat. Tell me how that works again. I've been drinking

 

[Varteras]

 

[PaintTinJr]

Personally - I really don't give a rat's ass one way or the other.. but since you've asked - my current "guess" as of this moment based on the actual updates/news available and not the random chatter here:

• CMA will eventually approve the deal - most likely will require some remediations/agreements to be put in place - but wouldn't be surprised if they even approve with no changes, or relatively "minor" ones of no actual consequence
• EC - will eventually approve the deal - (see above)
• FTC - Legal precedent has already been set with respect to the earlier lawsuit - will approve - especially if/when the two above approve

Overall - generally speaking - I don't see any legal reason here to block this deal. Only ongoing conjecture regarding COD and the size (amount) of the deal. I also don't believe this will sway the needle dramatically in overall market share in favor of Xbox if approved.

Quite honestly - if Sony depends as much on COD as many have stated here - they're in bigger trouble than they know.

I also don't believe MS will take COD exclusive anytime soon (perhaps long term - but that is literally years from now).

*all of these opinions are my own and not representative of the US, UK, Neogaf forum members. Perhaps Mongolia - haven't fully checked with them yet.

Given your stance on the CMA having no legal argument to block it, are you living in the UK and/or a British citizen to have that view? Or is it purely based on the factual info you have at hand hailing from the US -maybe going by your avatar?

 

[Bernardougf]

I also want to point out something that not many people bring up in these exclusive deals. Sony is fantastic at Marketing along with, if things ive read are to be believed, actually helping on the development of these games and to help speed get the game out in time and make it the highest quality it can be in the timeframe it needs to be delivered. Theres more than just X company paid Y to have the game exclusive for Z time, if Sony is also putting its marketing might and development prowess behind the product.

Agreed!

 

[Tomeru]

Was released before the acquisition.

So as minecraft

 

[Three]

Except Microsoft gets zero from this until 2025.

Where are you getting that silly idea from? They would be selling COD on PS until 2025 due to an existing contract and getting money from its sales until then.

Then it will still take years to double the gp subscribers. So for the first few years years it is double your estimate.

You didn't even read. It's not double the gamepass subscribers. GP is likely to be in the mid 30M already. They projected a 73% increase in 1 year without any major releases and got 40%. You think a 50% increase in 2 years is impossible with major Activison and Bethesda titles releasing? Look at netflix subscriber increases below

Raising prices 3-5 dollars a month will also get many to cancel especially the PC side. That is a 33% hike for pc and xbox non ultimate users pretty steap.

$1.45 not $5. Based on what exactly do you think people will unsubscribe? Games have longevity vs tv series. Look at Netflix subs vs price.

year	subs (Million)	revenue (billion)	price $
2011​	21.5​	3.1​	8​
2012​	25.71​	3.5​	8​
2013​	35.63​	4.3​	8​
2014​	47.99​	5.4​	9​
2015​	62.71​	6.7​	10​
2016​	79.9​	8.8​	10​
2017​	99.04​	11.6​	10​
2018​	124.35​	15.7​	11​
2019​	151.56​	20.1​	13​
2020​	192.95​	24.9​	14​
2021​	209​	29.6​	14​
2022​	220.6​	31.6​	15​

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

I think you are being very, very generous with your calculations. See details below:

Spoiler: Math

A COD installment sells around 30M on ALL PLATFORMs over its entire lifetime. 40M COD base game sales on Playstation alone in a year is ludicrously high, it's impossible. In 2021 all CODs combined sold 25M on all platforms combined in a year.

Unless gamepass had zero growth since Jan 2022 (25M), which would be both alarming and surprising I doubt I've doubled gamepass subs either. In Dec 2022 they said they set a gamepass record and hit 38% growth in subscribers for the fiscal year (ending June 2022). Their target was actually 73% growth before major releases like starfield, redfall, FM, etc. Gamepass subs are likely in the mid 30M already (Mar 2023). Going by that and the fact that this is before the major Activison and Zenimax titles hit gamepass I would say my 40-50M sub estimate would even be on the low side come 2025 when MS are allowed to remove COD (the Sony contracts end) and they have had major Zenimax and Activision titles hitting the service.
Lets say of the 25M CoD sales in a year 50% are on PS and the rest PC and xbox combined.
($70*12.5million)/(50million*12months) = $1.45 per month increase

A $1.45 a month increase to regain all CoD sales lost on Playstation.

Where are you getting that silly idea from? They would be selling COD on PS until 2025 due to an existing contract and getting money from its sales until then.


You didn't even read. It's not double the gamepass subscribers. GP is likely to be in the mid 30M already. They projected a 73% increase in 1 year without any major releases and got 40%. You think a 50% increase in 2 years is impossible with major Activison and Bethesda titles releasing? Look at netflix subscriber increases below

$1.45 not $5. Based on what exactly do you think people will unsubscribe? Games have longevity vs tv series. Look at Netflix subs vs price.

year	subs (Million)	revenue (billion)	price $
2011​	21.5​	3.1​	8​
2012​	25.71​	3.5​	8​
2013​	35.63​	4.3​	8​
2014​	47.99​	5.4​	9​
2015​	62.71​	6.7​	10​
2016​	79.9​	8.8​	10​
2017​	99.04​	11.6​	10​
2018​	124.35​	15.7​	11​
2019​	151.56​	20.1​	13​
2020​	192.95​	24.9​	14​
2021​	209​	29.6​	14​
2022​	220.6​	31.6​	15​

wait until Starfied.

 

[Varteras]

I also want to point out something that not many people bring up in these exclusive deals. Sony is fantastic at Marketing along with, if things ive read are to be believed, actually helping on the development of these games and to help speed get the game out in time and make it the highest quality it can be in the timeframe it needs to be delivered. Theres more than just X company paid Y to have the game exclusive for Z time, if Sony is also putting its marketing might and development prowess behind the product.

This is something that Naoki Yoshida, the producer of FF16 and director of FF14, touched on very recently. It wasn't simply Sony giving them money. Sony is giving Square Enix loads of tech support. Which he more or less said has been invaluable. I think people often forget that just because a company is big, that doesn't mean it has all the talent and resources it needs to get a product to a certain level.

 

[Varteras]

I'm the last person to complain about acquisitions/consolidation

I just want someone to buy Manchester United off the Glazers. Is that too much to ask for?

Ew. Futbol. No wonder no one wants to buy that shit.

 

[FlyyGOD]

SF5 was likely not going to be made at all without Sony funding it. Because it did well, that allowed SF6 to be greenlit internally by Capcom without external funding support so that it launched day and date on Xbox

Maybe you should be thankful Sony funded SF5 exclusively?



I dunno, maybe Square feels the port isn’t worth their time? No idea, but the latest we know of it’s no longer required to be exclusive

Keep telling yourself this. You really think Capcom would killed the Series if it wasn't for Sony?

 

[XesqueVara]

 

[phil_t98]

Without knowing the full details it’s hard to know. Full exclusive probably means Sony funded a lot of it, from dev to marketing. The question should be why did Capcom go along with it? Sounds like they weren’t financially secure at the time.

For example Square actually had Sony help bail them out by buying shares on the premise that they would sell them back later.

But by everybody’s stance here and the logic they are using Sony could of helped fund it with capcom
And still made it available for other consoles to play

 

[phil_t98]

Because Capcom wanted more significant funding to make it?

A permanent exclusive costs more than a timed one

But with Sony helping capcom funding it doesn’t mean it has to stay exclusive does it? That’s a multiplatform game that’s been taken away from other consoles

 

[Varteras]

Keep telling yourself this. You really think Capcom would killed the Series if it wasn't for Sony?

Considering that Capcom wasn't willing to fund SF5 on their own, if that game never came to be at the time and state it did, there is no way of knowing what state the franchise itself would be in right now. Capcom wouldn't kill it. But SF6 wouldn't be coming out right now and SF5, when it was eventually made, might have been very different and not at all good or well supported. So possibly received very differently. SF6 looks to be a better game than SF5 was with Capcom clearly giving it more support. This is a result of Sony investing in Capcom so they would make SF5 without worrying about it costing them. The ultimate success of SF5 put the franchise in its current position.

 

[DeepEnigma]

So transparent, lol.

A whole eleven.

 

[Varteras]

The implication here is that Microsoft actually tried in Japan.

 

[Oddvintagechap]

Sony definitely needs to buy Epic Games or Take-Two. This Activision purchase has way too many variables.

 

[DeepEnigma]

The implication here is that Microsoft actually tried in Japan.

We know they heavily slashed their marketing budget overall and that is in their strong territories. Now imagine the Japanese territory where they ship a few hundred consoles weekly.

 

[yet_another_alt]

So transparent, lol.

A whole eleven.

Microsft is saving the other 424 in case of emergency.

 

[Oddvintagechap]

Ok that’s enough, I can’t take the Nintendo slander anymore. Nobody takes them seriously. They are seen like some niche mobile phone producer.

 

[Varteras]

We know they heavily slashed their marketing budget overall and that is in their strong territories. Now imagine the Japanese territory where they ship a few hundred consoles weekly.

20 years in the industry with Nintendo dominating Japan right now. But Sony is why Japanese gamers hardly acknowledge the console. They've struggled to supply Series X consoles into the markets they have a foothold in. I would think they'd be thankful they don't have to supply Japan too.

 

[XesqueVara]

Ok that’s enough, I can’t take the Nintendo slander anymore. Nobody takes them seriously. They are seen like some niche mobile phone producer.

Regulators did that when they excluded Nintendo of the Pie, Now MS is just playing acordding with that definition

 

[Yoboman]

Now everyone in Japan is gonna buy Xbox if Biden tells them to

 

[DeepEnigma]

20 years in the industry with Nintendo dominating Japan right now. But Sony is why Japanese gamers hardly acknowledge the console. They've struggled to supply Series X consoles into the markets they have a foothold in. I would think they'd be thankful they don't have to supply Japan too.

Lobbying gonna lobby.

 

[Varteras]

Lobbying gonna lobby.

 

[TheGodfather07]

 

[Yoboman]

Sony made Microsoft big mad

 

[FoxMcChief]

 

[Thirty7ven]

And people wanna pretend there’s anything to like about this company? Mediocre product by mediocre people.

 

[ulantan]

"You see we need to buy sega"

 

[ToadMan]

Approx 3 years since FF7R released. What are the odds it's still going to show up on Xbox?

Odds of this are based on how much MS will pay for FF7R to be on GP.

Xbox games don’t sell now - SE aren’t going to lose money trying to sell games on a rental only platform.

So what are the odds MS pays to get FF7R on GP? Low I’d say. They just made a big purchase after all.

 

[Three]

The fact is, you can't you use the revenue/profit from a different decision to make up for the costs of this decision.

Regulators have to view the costs of taking CoD off Playstation and making it exclusive to Xbox, VS the benefit of taking CoD off Playstation and making it exclusive to Xbox.

I'm sorry but that doesn't make sense. Your calculation was refuting this point. You tried to show that it wouldn't work to increase GP cost to replace CoD Playstation base game sales loss. If you are saying regulators shouldn't even look at that now that's a different point.

As for my numbers, I had a 15% switch rate, that is how I derived the 6M number. Replace 40M with any number and the math is still the same. The switchers could pay nearly 5x as much and still fall short of the losses incurred from not selling CoD on Playstation.

its not the same. Not sure why you think it will be. I've highlighted where you assuming 40M sales of CoD on PS a year would make absolutely the biggest difference :

Lets say there are 40M Playstation CoD players. And 15% of them (6M) left Playstation and joined Gamepass.

Not accounting for MTX and Battle passes, just base game/sub price. At 40M x $70, losses for a year from taking CoD away from Playstation is $2.8B, if you only account for the 70% Xbox would make from the purchases, it would roughly be $2B.

Now onto the 6M that switched to Xbox, all of which jumped into Gamepass, never unsubscribed. At an average price of $10 a month, that's $120 a year just for the subscription, Microsoft would be making $720M. Maybe you think all 6M PS switchers would pay for ultimate at $15. That brings up the "benefit" to $1.08B.

Maybe that's not enough. You want Gamepass prices to increase. Let's say all 6M PS switchers are happy to pay $20 a month for Gamepass, that's $240 a year. That's $1.44B

The benefit of those 6M new Gamepass users paying above and beyond what Gamepass currently charges still falls short of the cost of taking CoD away from Playstation. To the tune of $560M a year, and this is assuming the 6M that switched would pay nearly 5x as much as they did on Playstation.

Your entire calculation is based on replacing 40M sales a year of COD on Playstation. You don't need to replace 40M sales because it doesn't sell anywhere near that much. Users would only need to pay $1.45 which isn't even 2x more let alone x5. Its 0.145x more.

 

[Varteras]

I will say that as an American, this image rustles my jimmies. Awful big stones to laugh at the offerings of a nation that raised your country's average temperature significantly. Twice.

MURICA!

None of this is me projecting about my tiny penis.

It's not THAT small, Shannon!

Whore.

 

[TheGodfather07]

I will say that as an American, this image rustles my jimmies. Awful big stones to laugh at the offerings of a nation that raised your country's average temperature significantly. Twice.

MURICA!

None of this is me projecting about my tiny penis.

It's not THAT small, Shannon!

Whore.

They won't be laughing when Microsoft purchases Japan itself. Who's gonna stop them then?

 

[ToadMan]

• FTC - Legal precedent has already been set with respect to the earlier lawsuit

Which lawsuit?

 

[Varteras]

They won't be laughing when Microsoft purchases Japan itself. Who's gonna stop them then?

Balmer back like,

KONICHIWA! BITCHES!

 

[Yoboman]

I mean Xbox fans had a chance to show they want Final Fantasy games. They didn't...

 

[reinking]

They won't be laughing when Microsoft purchases Japan itself. Who's gonna stop them then?

 

[ulantan]

I gotta hand it to Phil his ability to pin all his failings on the competition is incredible. Xbox and Phil are the perfect and can improve its everyone else holding him back, and the insane part is that thier fanbase belive that. It's truly amazing

 

[Varteras]

I mean Xbox fans had a chance to show they want Final Fantasy games. They didn't...

Hell if I remember correctly, FF13 and FF15 sales both showed a crushing difference in sales ratio in favor of PlayStation. In the UK I believe FF15 console sales were like 79% on PS4 and 21% on XBO. That's a market where Xbox is actually competitive.

 

[IntentionalPun]

I mean Xbox fans had a chance to show they want Final Fantasy games. They didn't...

Boxed sales.

Per the last sentence in that tweet, Xbox is actually far more digital.

The software sales are never anywhere near as different as people think once that is taken into account.

The UK boxed charts are always such a distraction from the overall big picture lol

edit: OK I didn't notice how terrible those Xbox sales, so kinda ignore me here lol