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My Fanboy market analysis of HD consoles... and then some

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Kafel

Banned
I think it will be very difficult for the PS3 to come back in N.A.


The 360 is now the Madden console as was the PS2 at its time.
 

MikeB

Banned
The Innocent X said:
Your figures show that PS3 is maybe catching up at 100K a month WW (and thats being very generous). That's five years to reduce the gap.

And that doesn't take into account that 360 is sitting on a price drop in it best territory.

About 150-200K worldwide per month I believe and that's good for the slow months.

Both platforms may get price drops (I think the PS3 will get one around October), one thing is certain though and that's Metal Gear Solid 4 in June which should have an impact.
 

MikeB

Banned
Kafel said:
I think it will be very difficult for the PS3 to come back in N.A.


The 360 is now the Madden console as was the PS2 at its time.

Regarding the 360 strongholds:

For Austalia I guess the PS3 will overtake the 360 next holiday season.
For the UK and South Korea I guess it's going to be in 2009.
For the US I guess it's going to be 2010.
 

itxaka

Defeatist
MikeB said:
About 150-200K worldwide per month I believe and that's good for the slow months.

Both platforms may get price drops (I think the PS3 will get one around October), one thing is certain though and that's Metal Gear Solid 4 in June which should have an impact.

tagged for future.

PLease explain what impact MGS4 is gonna have on the ps3 please. 100k+ every month on NA? more than 20k every week on japan?
 

MikeB

Banned
Sir Fragula said:
Why do you do this to yourself?

Just for fun, in 2006 I asked people if they thought the PS3 or 360 would come out on top for christmas 2007, while stating I believed the PS3 would outsell the 360. So one year in advance, some 360 fanboys were upset with the idea but in general the silent majority voted correctly for the PS3. (about 3 to 1)

In January 2007, I asked people if they thought the PS3 will do much better in Europe than the consolde would do in North America and Japan for its first year on the market. Myself stating Some 360 fanboys stated it certainly wouldn't do any better. But again silent majority of voters voted correctly that the PS3 would do much better. (about 60 : 40)

This was before joining NeoGAF.

It's kinda a hobby, trying to construct insightful outlooks and coming up with arguments which may well go against the believes of a majority of hardcore vocals, but turn out to be pretty accurate.

I love statistics and I love talking about ahead of its time technology. I combine the the two with threads like these.
 

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
DCharlie.. I think I love you.

OLD SCHOOL

i was a huge therapy? fan circa babyteeh/pleasure death

I felt they dropped off after nurse.


thread hijack slightly, but the lyrics to Accelerator

"You son of a bitch, you've got no friends
You've got no steady job, you've got no girlfriend
You say I'm cheap, you're just like me
The answer to the question, put to you by me

I'm the driver
I'm in control"

i was watching a late night film one night , black and white, and this is actually an exchange between two people... any idea which film?

i was quite shocked! :D

Just for fun, in 2006 I asked people if they thought the PS3 or 360 would come out on top for christmas 2007, while stating I believed the PS3 would outsell the 360. So one year in advance, some 360 fanboys were upset with the idea but in general the silent majority voted correctly for the PS3. (about 3 to 1)

huh?!
the Ps3 outsold the X360 in Xmas 2007?
where?!? globally?!
maybe i missed it....
 
A majority of silent minority, huh?

Every second line every one of your posts is open to question. I was scratching my head by the time I reached the end of the OP.

Please stop, you are bad, and bad at this.
 

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
I love statistics and I love talking about ahead of its time technology.

you must have been a huge X360 fan then - 2 years before the PS3 and same performance class (at least)
 
itxaka said:
This is amazing.

OP please consider this well-made point in depth when making future 'updates'.
 

itxaka

Defeatist
It's kinda a hobby, trying to construct insightful outlooks and coming up with arguments which may well go against the believes of a majority of hardcore vocals, but turn out to be pretty accurate.

ok, answer me please, if you want to go against the hardcore majority.

Please explain what impact MGS4 is gonna have on the ps3 please. 100k+ every month on NA? more than 20k every week on japan?
 

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
Yes globally. Europe + Japan over-compensated for North American figures.

... in xmas 2007?!

are you sure?!

Japan's contribution was what? 60k units?

ah, it did infact push 50-60k a week for a few weeks. The only numbers i can actually find are from -that- place. (
 

MikeB

Banned
itxaka said:
Please explain what impact MGS4 is gonna have on the ps3 please. 100k+ every month on NA? more than 20k every week on japan?

I anticipate a nice boost widening the gap for Europe/Japan and putting the PS3 ahead of the 360 for North America as well.

However like I stated years ago, the PS3 will not really take off in Japan until a slimline PS3 and the release of Final Fantasy. Seperate both should see a very big boost for the platform, but combined is a formula for true success.

For Noth America I anticipate the PS3 to solidly beat the 360's performance once the 360 moves well beyond the original XBox' install base (about 6-8 million sales to go to reach this point).
 

Kafel

Banned
MikeB, since you used the same excuse than Microsoft for the Xbox in Japan (small places, need a small console), do you think Japanese people will likely have two consoles of the same gen under their TV ?

The Wii then, and the PS3 according to you ?
 

itxaka

Defeatist
MikeB said:
I anticipate a nice boost widening the gap for Europe/Japan and putting the PS3 ahead of the 360 for North America as well.

ok. Tagged for june NPD and Media-create.

So, NA above the 360 (all months to come? one month?)
Japan, small boost (15k instead of 8-10k per week? during how many weeks? 10? 1?)

Your anticipations are so wide and unconcise that you are saying nothing. If it gives a 1week bump (and that is normal) you win, if it gives 12weeks bump you win.

Be concise, stop playing games.
 
Evander said:
pressing the discs doesn't mean that people want them.
I'm not an economist but doesn't this basically run completely counter-intuitive to one of the basic principles of Capitalism, that supply moves to meet demand and not vice-versa?
 

Htown

STOP SHITTING ON MY MOTHER'S HEADSTONE
MikeB, what makes you think that MGS4 is going to move hardware so much when GTA4, part of a much more popular game series, apparently hasn't?
 

MikeB

Banned
Kafel said:
MikeB, since you used the same excuse than Microsoft for the Xbox in Japan (small places, need a small console), do you think Japanese people will likely have two consoles of the same gen under their TV ?

The Wii then, and the PS3 according to you ?

Well a Blu-Ray player takes up space underneath the telly as well, a PS3 would be two devices in one (but I was more referring to compact and efficeint devices in general).

Both Wii and PS3 are good family products, I don't think many Japanese kids will own more than 1 'current gen' console, but that's IMO OK as the bulk of PS3 content will be far less targeted at kids specifically (for example big games like Resident Evil 5, Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid, etc).
 

xbhaskarx

Member
MikeB said:
Yes globally. Europe + Japan over-compensated for North American figures.

I don't know where you are getting global sales numbers from, I assume from banned site (since you're an active member over there), where PS3 sales are around 95 thousand more than 360 sales globally for December 2007, a statistically negligible difference (aka "even").

Congratulations to both you and the "majority of silent minority" on correctly predicting that the PS3 would barely outsell the 360 globally over Christmas 2007. Did you look into the future and see that Sony would be releasing a cheaper 40 GB console in Europe in October 2007, and in North America and Japan in November 2007?

Of course, the Wii outsold both by like 2 MILLION over December 2007. The sales difference between the Wii and PS3 was 20 TIMES the difference between the PS3 and 360. Yet you're not using those sales numbers to hype up the Wii for some reason...

.
 

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
Well a Blu-Ray player takes up space underneath the telly as well, a PS3 would be two device in one

bluray is already dead in Japan. It needs to be completely relaunched.

I don't expect it to take off here any time soon and i expect demand for players to be absorbed by people who buy recorder/hdd recorder combos.

Of course, the Wii outsold both the PS3 and 360 by like 2 MILLION over December 2007. Yet you're not using those sales numbers to hype up the Wii for some reason...

like i said previously - nothing says disaster about to happen than crushing both your competitors combined. How can Nintendo continue to ignore these obvious warning signs? surely the 800k US sales this month (when X360 and PS3 both managed a staggering 160k or so) should definitely have them looking over their shoulder at the ever shortening gap. HD is coming to get them - and the pace of their ascent is increasing! :O
 

Jokeropia

Member
MikeB said:
The Japanese prefer cute compact devices (small houses, small people), the current PS3 is slick but pretty bulky actually, especially for Japanese standards.
The Wii Balance Board has outsold the PS3 in Japan.
MikeB said:
The games which are of the most interest to the Japanese market haven't been released yet.
The PS3 has gotten four installments in franchises that were million sellers on PS2. (2x Dynasty Warriors, Winning Eleven, Hot Shots Golf.)
MikeB said:
No development is far too much ahead. Capcom may not have had high aims for their upcoming Monster Hunter game and may well be better suited for PS2/Wii level technology. It would make sense if they are also making a PS2 version behind the scenes, as most of the Monster Hunter fanbase already own this system (I guess only a few own only a PSP).
As much as you try to dodge it, the obvious reason for Monster Hunter moving is that PS3 is colossal failure that's tracking behind both Gamecube and Saturn. PS2 is also dying in Japan much faster than elsewhere, so no, your suggestion wouldn't make sense at all.
 

DECK'ARD

The Amiga Brotherhood
I think this thread should be re-titled "MikeB's Last Stand" and some permaban bets introduced over MGS4's impact on console sales in the 3 territories.

With all the effort you put into these threads and your own special interpretation of the data, it's really time to put your money where your mouth is ...
 

soldat7

Member
MikeB said:
The PS3 is technolgy-wise ahead for its time, it's based on cutting edge technology like the Cell processor and Blu-Ray technology.

I'm buying a PS3 next month. I hope you'll save some Kool-Aid for me.
 

ThirdEye

Member
DCharlie said:
bluray is already dead in Japan. It needs to be completely relaunched.

I don't expect it to take off here any time soon and i expect demand for players to be absorbed by people who buy recorder/hdd recorder combos.



like i said previously - nothing says disaster about to happen than crushing both your competitors combined. How can Nintendo continue to ignore these obvious warning signs? surely the 800k US sales this month (when X360 and PS3 both managed a staggering 160k or so) should definitely have them looking over their shoulder at the ever shortening gap. HD is coming to get them - and the pace of their ascent is increasing! :O
wat, are you living in a cave or something

Blu-ray Accounts for Half of Japan April DVD/HDD Recorder Sales
http://techon.nikkeibp.co.jp/english/NEWS_EN/20080522/152137/

DVD will be dead at the end of 2009 in Japan.
 

jman2050

Member
ThirdEye said:
wat, are you living in a cave or something

Blu-ray Accounts for Half of Japan April DVD/HDD Recorder Sales
http://techon.nikkeibp.co.jp/english/NEWS_EN/20080522/152137/

DVD will be dead at the end of 2009 in Japan.

article said:
Blu-ray Disc recorders have finally overtaken the market.

I don't expect it to take off here any time soon and i expect demand for players to be absorbed by people who buy recorder/hdd recorder combos.

How does that article in any way contradict what he said? Unless you didn't understand the article correctly, which seems to be the case.
 

MikeB

Banned
xbhaskarx said:
I don't know where you are getting global sales numbers from, I assume from banned site (since you're an active member over there), where PS3 sales are around 95 thousand more than 360 sales globally for December 2007, a statistically negligible difference (aka "even")..

No, their figures are slightly off with regard to North America and PAL regions (Japan data seems to be mostly based on Famitsu's data). It's a little more to the advantage of the PS3. For example NPD's figures for December were better for the PS3 vs 360, than their data. Just look it up and compare.

In any case 360 fanboys ridiculed the idea of a remote possibility that the PS3 would be able to outsell the 360, afterall Halo 3 woud be launched a week ahead of 2007's final quarter and so would trounce the competition.

2007 sales data from Sony and Microsoft are pretty clear:

Microsoft sold 4.3 million 360s worldwide in the last quarter of 2007, making it 7.3 million in total.
Sony sold 4.9 million PS3 worldwide in the last quarter of 2007, totalling 8.83 million for the year.
 

xbhaskarx

Member
MikeB said:
2007 sales data from Sony and Microsoft are pretty clear:

Microsoft sold 4.3 million 360s worldwide in the last quarter of 2007
Sony sold 4.9 million PS3 worldwide in the last quarter of 2007


"Christmas 2007" is not the same as "last quarter of 2007"
 

MikeB

Banned
xbhaskarx said:
"Christmas 2007" is not the same as "last quarter of 2007"

The Halo 3 effect was more present in the month just after the game was released. The 360 outsold the PS3 in October.
 
Come on guys, you're talking to a guy who just likened his predictions of PS3's outselling the 360 to the abandonment of the flat Earth concept. He must be a joke poster. There's no way something that dumb came from a serious post.
 

itxaka

Defeatist
Nash said:
I think this thread should be re-titled "MikeB's Last Stand" and some permaban bets introduced over MGS4's impact on console sales in the 3 territories.

With all the effort you put into these threads and your own special interpretation of the data, it's really time to put your money where your mouth is ...


I approve this. If you are so sure, make a account bet. Or better, a losing creating threads rigths bet.


"Christmas 2007" is not the same as "last quarter of 2007"

He is going into circles, changing his statements and not answering direct answers.
 

xbhaskarx

Member
MikeB said:
The Halo 3 effect was more present in the month just after the game was released. The 360 outsold the PS3 in October.

Right, and then in mid-October Europe, Australia, the Middle East, and Africa got the cheaper 40 GB. And then towards the end of October the 80 GB got a price drop. And then in early November the 40 GB was launched in North America. And then in mid-November the 40 GB was released in Japan.

You saw all of this coming in 2006, and correctly predicted that the PS3 would
barely (by ~95k)
beat the 360 worldwide in Christmas 2007.

Edit: And if the PS3 can keep catching up at the pace from when it got a cheaper model in every major region of the world, gaining 100k per month it would pass the 360 in a mere 63 months, or 5 1/4 years.
 

MikeB

Banned
xbhaskarx said:
You saw all of this coming in 2006, and correctly predicted that the PS3 would
barely (by ~95k)
beat the 360 worldwide in Christmas 2007.

It was far more than 100K, just as the rate at which retailers bought new units also suggest. And yes, I believed the PS3 would get a pricecut. I brought this forward as one of the factors.

I argued with people if the 40GB PS3 would have the desired effect or not, according to 360 fanboys it wouldn't. Afterall the 40GB PS3 isn't backwards compatible with PS2 software, like the earlier units were and some features were removed.

I am not saying I can accurately predict everything, for instance I thought it would take a little longer before the Blu-Ray vs HD DVD format war would be over. But I was correct with the prediction Blu-Ray would win this format war without any reasonable doubt.
 
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