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[LordRaptor]

It seem like people think every year going to have growth no matter what .

Population grows all the time.
Its not unreasonable to assume a healthy market can match population growth by attracting new consumers. It is therefore not unreasonable to point to market contraction - contraction, not stagnation - as indicators of a market being unhealthy

e:
Things like changing the methods of reporting the industry - such as moving to things like MAUs or Revenue instead of units sold - are also indicators that an industry is not doing as well as it would like people to believe.

 

[anothertech]

I'm thinking numbers are made up. MS spin wouldn't miss an opportunity like that.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Population grows all the time.
Its not unreasonable to assume a healthy market can match population growth by attracting new consumers. It is therefore not unreasonable to point to market contraction - contraction, not stagnation - as indicators of a market being unhealthy

e:
Things like changing the methods of reporting the industry - such as moving to things like MAUs or Revenue instead of units sold - are also indicators that an industry is not doing as well as it would like people to believe.

Still don't mean we going to get YoY growth every time.
We all know there are many other factors to consider .

 

[ethomaz]

PS2 wasn't a worldwide launch though. If you launch align by region PS4 should be behind by a significant margin.

Launch aligned in the US for example PS2 was already past 20 million by this point.

That is not true.

PS2 numbers are produced shipment or what Sony produced and stored in warehouses before ship to retail... only after 2006 they start to uses sold-in or shippers to retail.

Even launch aligned PS4 is probably ahead PS2 yet... that will change in the future.

Wii is still king way over both.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Population grows all the time.
Its not unreasonable to assume a healthy market can match population growth by attracting new consumers. It is therefore not unreasonable to point to market contraction - contraction, not stagnation - as indicators of a market being unhealthy

While there is some validity to that, you also have to consider income and how the population is growing. If wages are stagnant and cost of living expenses increase, people don't have as much extra money to spend on luxuries. As demographics change taste changes as well.

It's important to consider the economy as a whole too. The US has had very slow growth since the 90s and there's nothing that indicates that will change anytime soon.

 

[Norse]

If these numbers said ps4 had won by 300-400k this thread would be like a NY new year's Eve party and you all know it.

IF these numbers are correct, then what's the ps4/pro split? 7/4 or 8/3? And if those psvr numbers are right, I could see that 2017 games list shrinking faster than I'm typing this.

Ms or may be waiting for December numbers before they say anything but I don't doubt they claim victory over each ps4 SKU if December is as close as November is in those wc numbers.

As for Sony saying they had best bf ever, revenue wise it probably was. And they might have meant most profitable bf.

 

[Square2015]

Well yeah, sales were probably down because of the election outcome, a lot of people were depressed.

 

[Wiped89]

They had some great sales this holiday and the PS4 Pro had to have helped as well.

Slight aside...

I ended up buying 3 PS4 Pros...only kept one but with the all the holiday sales, I kept finding a better deal. The weird thing on the last one was I bought it from Target and they actually had a lower price just a few days later. They couldn't do a price adjustment over the phone for the order. I actually had to buy a new one and return the one I bought at a higher price. I wonder if retailers force them to do this to inflate the numbers?

LOL no. What are you on about. A returned console is not counted as a sale. It's unsold. It either gets returned to the manufacturer as a dud unit or if it is still unopened, goes back on the shelf.

 

[Norse]

If those numbers are true, MS is in deep shit.

US is what? 55, 60% of their installed base?

Why? If the numbers are real....

1m xbone's
800k Slim's
300k pros
68k psvr

MS is fine with those numbers.

 

[Unknown?]

If these numbers said ps4 had won by 300-400k this thread would be like a NY new year's Eve party and you all know it.

IF these numbers are correct, then what's the ps4/pro split? 7/4 or 8/3? And if those psvr numbers are right, I could see that 2017 games list shrinking faster than I'm typing this.

Ms or may be waiting for December numbers before they say anything but I don't doubt they claim victory over each ps4 SKU if December is as close as November is in those wc numbers.

As for Sony saying they had best bf ever, revenue wise it probably was. And they might have meant most profitable bf.

Definitely not revenue if these numbers are true. Even at $299 these numbers wouldn't bring them as much revenue as last year but $50 less with less sold is millions of lost revenue. They did launch a higher priced Pro but they also had two higher priced bundles last year. PSVR isn't selling enough to counter less consoles sold(again if this is true) with its stock issues. Profit? Maybe but still unlikely unless the margins on the slim are that good.

As far as December goes I mean Sony already is off to a great start with being the best selling console on Cyber Monday and selling FFXV LE consoles.

 

[michaelius]

Utmost caution is warranted, but that doesn't necessarily mean the information is wrong. If it turns out to be correct, you have to wonder why Microsoft are happy to be seen talking and leaking information to these guys. They are not nice people.

It doesn't matter if they are nice or not - all it matters is if they are useful.

 

[Elios83]

Why? If the numbers are real....

1m xbone's
800k Slim's
300k pros
68k psvr

MS is fine with those numbers.

Emmm NO.
Microsoft numbers if true are really bad as well.
This company is selling consoles at a loss throwing everything they can at US and UK to try to stay relevant, free games, huge discounts, gift cards, premium bundles with new third party games. This is Microsoft's best result while for Sony we know that there was growth in other markets.
For a company coming out of 300k+ October and 4 months of outselling the market leader in the US this is a poor result and a serious momentum halt and that's why we got the windowscentral article, someone is doing immediate damage control
Now the only doubt is if it's a real (controlled) leak or if it's the fruit of the minds of some well known fanboys like Crapgamer and co.

 

[noobie]

Do we have exact black Friday numbers for USA for PS4 for 2015?

 

[Guymelef]

Why? If the numbers are real....

1m xbone's
800k Slim's
300k pros
68k psvr

MS is fine with those numbers.

I would say they are scared of only 300k PS4 Pro.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

Why? If the numbers are real....

1m xbone's
800k Slim's
300k pros
68k psvr

MS is fine with those numbers.

Fine? No, not when US is 65-70% of their entire sales.

 

[Bgamer90]

Fine? No, not when US is 65-70% of their entire sales.

That (65-70%) seems too high, and what should they have sold then? Close to 2 million? That's what's funny to me. People are saying this is bad simply because it's a drop from last year. Nothing about the range they feel it should have sold.

It's a typical "fourth Holiday of gen" drop if these numbers are true (the system was at around 1.3 Million last year if I remember correctly).

So much doom and gloom.

 

[Bgamer90]

No. Last year saw bundles with Battlefront, BLOPS3,and the release of FO4 with comparably priced bundles in what is traditionally a stronger holiday than year four.

Look, every time consoles are down YoY, people on GAF scream and cry that the sky is falling, but step outside of the echo chamber for a moment. Liam Callahan at NPD isn't panicking. Analysts at other firms aren't panicking. The media isn't panicking. Everyone outside of GAF isn't panicking. Every single time consoles have ever been down, as far as GAF is concerned its either worrying, or concerning, or alarming, or a bad sign, etc.

But it's not. Consoles soldier on, just as they have since forever. This is why Cosmic Queso abandoned the thread earlier today, because people don't listen to measure and reason. The sky isn't falling. These numbers are fine. I don't understand this weird obsession that everything has to be up YoY or its a sign of the end times.

Stop using logic and trends. Let people continue on showing their confirmation bias!

 

[Welfare]

Just because the numbers don't fit with what you think is reality doesn't mean they aren't real. They are literally in your face and some still try and argue their legitimacy?

This will be my last post on this. If any numbers manage to come out from any other source, they will show exactly this. Whether you wish to believe now or then is up to you. You guys conspiracy thinking that Greenberg would retweet a lie is crazy.

 

[Liabe Brave]

PS4 WW is only a small amount behind PS2 and that is with the death of the Japanese market .

Incorrect. Worldwide, PS4 is still well ahead of PS2.

PS2 wasn't a worldwide launch though. If you launch align by region PS4 should be behind by a significant margin.

Launch aligned in the US for example PS2 was already past 20 million by this point.

PS4 is millions behind PS2 launch-aligned in the US, but PS2 wasn't past 20m quite yet. They launched in October rather than November like PS4, so the PS2 hasn't hit its fourth November yet launch-aligned.

MS is fine with those numbers.

I doubt it. Here's the YOY drop from third to fourth November for the last couple gens (negative numbers mean growth):

Gamecube    53.58%
Wii         38.24%
PS2         35.58%
PS4         28.57%
Xbox One    23.08%
WiiU         0.83%
Xbox 360    -8.57%
Xbox       -42.86%
PS3        -87.83%

As you can see, Xbox One just had by far the worst Year 3 vs. Year 4 of a Microsoft console.

Do we have exact black Friday numbers for USA for PS4 for 2015?

Of course not. But if we assume console sales are distributed like typical November sales, then we could estimate about 750,000 in 2015 and about 600,000 in 2016.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

There isn't anything wrong with questioning the numbers.

 

[kswiston]

I doubt it. Here's the YOY drop from third to fourth November for the last couple gens (negative numbers mean growth):

Gamecube    53.58%
Wii         38.24%
PS2         35.58%
PS4         28.57%
Xbox One    23.08%
WiiU         0.83%
Xbox 360    -8.57%
Xbox       -42.86%
PS3        -87.83%

As you can see, Xbox One just had by far the worst Year 3 vs. Year 4 of a Microsoft console.

OG Xbox looks amazing because that 4th November was Halo 2's launch. The system was dead a year later. EDIT: Maybe more like 18 months later.

 

[Fdkn]

Because it would be next to impossible they'd be down 23% in the US and more than make up for that elsewhere.

lol

It must be a hard pill to swallow for you that the US could not be that important.

 

[hanspampel]

Fine? No, not when US is 65-70% of their entire sales.

us is 55%-60% of all sales for xb1
360 us sales were ~50% of total

 

[statham]

The Windows Central source for 100k figure appears to be Mooch and Crapgamer, according to one Redditor who did some digging.

The author of the article Jez Corden appeared on Fridays episode of the CrossFire Podcast hosted by Mooch and Crapgamer where he explicitly says he does not know if Sony beat Microsoft by a large margin or a small margin. During the same podcast, Mooch comments that he has insiders within Microsoft that inform him that Novembers gap is around 100k. The full podcast is later uploaded to YouTube. Jez Corden next writes his Windows Central piece citing an unnamed source who says the gap between the two systems is 100k.

Why is WC entertaining these clowns?

He responded on /xboxone that the numbers were not from them. He has his own source.

 

[Loudninja]

Definitely not revenue if these numbers are true. Even at $299 these numbers wouldn't bring them as much revenue as last year but $50 less with less sold is millions of lost revenue. They did launch a higher priced Pro but they also had two higher priced bundles last year. PSVR isn't selling enough to counter less consoles sold(again if this is true) with its stock issues. Profit? Maybe but still unlikely unless the margins on the slim are that good.

As far as December goes I mean Sony already is off to a great start with being the best selling console on Cyber Monday and selling FFXV LE consoles.

Umm the Slim is cheaper for them to produce then the regular PS4 its always been like this.

 

[Liabe Brave]

OG Xbox looks amazing because that 4th November was Halo 2's launch. The system was dead a year later. EDIT: Maybe more like 18 months later.

No need for the edit, the system was basically dead by holiday 2005 due to launch of the 360. But that's not relevant. Yes, original Xbox was particularly helped by the launch of a big tentpole exclusive, but that's the whole point: Xbox One, for whatever reason you like to name, has done much worse.

Note that it wasn't devoid of big tentpoles either: Gears 4 exclusively, alongside new multiplatform entries of Call of Duty and Battlefield (which were not console juggernauts back in 2004).

 

[Unknown?]

lol

It must be a hard pill to swallow for you that the US could not be that important.

I'm not saying it is that important. Just logically speaking the ROW had a record breaking month last year too, it would be nothing short of amazing to rise that much yoy when most of the world BF is a non factor.

 

[Insane Metal]

Disappointing numbers if true.

Edit: not too bad for the XBO honestly.

 

[Kenzodielocke]

I am confused, are these the actual numbers or predictions?

 

[hanspampel]

He responded on /xboxone that the numbers were not from them. He has his own source.

it was a stupid assumption in the first place. that guy is doing podcasts with those people for some time now. so why would they! magically give him insider information about npd and not already before.
and if they would've done that he had to be a horrible journalist to post them without any proof.

 

[Toki767]

I am confused, are these the actual numbers or predictions?

No one knows yet.

 

[Elandyll]

Disappointing numbers if true.

Edit: not too bad for the XBO honestly.

In their main market that could represent as high as 60% of their WW sales?

 

[Moonstone]

Just for clarification that's what the windowscentral guy posted:

B: I started digging for hard information at the start of the podcast, because I'm a professional. I have sources, and I was interested to know if Mooch was speaking the truth or it was some fake news/hyperbole/rumor that was being used to further some Xbox fanboy's agenda. Turns out it wasn't.

C: At the end of the podcast, I revealed that I did finally get the hard figures, and they were accurate. I invite Sony, Xbox, or anyone to come and refute them. I know 100% that these figures are accurate, and have since confirmed their validity with secondary sources.

 

[Norse]

In their main market that could represent as high as 60% of their WW sales?

When I say "fine", I mean imo when compared to the competition numbers for this market. It would be different if just ms numbers where down, but that's not the case according to the numbers from wc.

 

[Guymelef]

Bad numbers, XBO won't even reach 40M lifetime sales.

 

[Moonstone]

Bad numbers, XBO won't reach even 40M lifetime sales.

There is Scorpio and probably Scorpio2 eventually. All sales will be lumped together into XBO. So we will never know, I'd guess. That is is the point of the upgrades.
You don't that at zero again - but with 35 mio customers (made up number).

 

[Guymelef]

There is Scorpio and probably Scorpio2 eventually. All sales will be lumped together into XBO. So we will never know, I'd guess. That is is the point of the upgrades.
You don't that at zero again - but with 35 mio customers (made up number).

Scorpio is a new gen NeoGAF said me, why should numbers be together with XBO?

 

[hanspampel]

Bad numbers, XBO won't even reach 40M lifetime sales.

xbox one will easily reach 50m lifetime sales.
likely 100m+ with the generationless approach

 

[EventHorizon]

Both companies released hardware revisions and Sony even released a more powerful console. How exactly are such heavy drops fine?

Sony released PSVR which stole some of the Pro's sales as existing PS4 owners would rather get access to a whole different set of games rather than minor graphical improvements to existing games. Straight console sales don't tell full story since PSVR is like another console. It has a console price and its own exclusive list of games to go with it. Note that the PSVR is sold out in many locations thus freezing hardware purchase decisions for those who want it.

This is exactly my situation. I am a PS4 owner. I have thought about getting an XB1 or a Pro recently which quickly ended as I realized I'd rather have a PSVR. I am also not excited about paying for another subscription to get full access to an XB1 which is a whole other issue that would suppress total console ownership numbers compared to prior generations.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

us is 55%-60% of all sales for xb1
360 us sales were ~50% of total

Source?

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

There is Scorpio and probably Scorpio2 eventually. All sales will be lumped together into XBO. So we will never know, I'd guess. That is is the point of the upgrades.
You don't that at zero again - but with 35 mio customers (made up number).

Would be silly to combine XB1 sales with Scorpio. Scorpio will be near 100% diffetent spec wise.

 

[Omnistalgic]

Would be silly to combine XB1 sales with Scorpio. Scorpio will be near 100% diffetent spec wise.

well, it's going to be silly then...

MS will definitely put the two sales figures together, as Scorpio has been stated to be directly a super Xbox one, just like the Pro is to PS4. And what does 100% different spec wise even mean? They play the same games, the architecture is very very similar. What are you talking about?

 

[SwolBro]

Would be silly to combine XB1 sales with Scorpio. Scorpio will be near 100% diffetent spec wise.

Why? If both consoles can play each other in the same games then it's the same console only different spec just like PS4 pro and PS4.

If this is the way of the future then this is the way of the future. Shouldn't be a different standard for only one company.

 

[Moonstone]

This is exactly my situation. I am a PS4 owner. I have thought about getting an XB1 or a Pro recently which quickly ended as I realized I'd rather have a PSVR. I am also not excited about paying for another subscription to get full access to an XB1 which is a whole other issue that would suppress total console ownership numbers compared to prior generations.

Think this is different this generation compared to last one as online gaming does need a subscription on both platforms. Last gen there were probably a lot of 360 users in the us who eventually picked up a PS3 as Sony had the better output in the last years and consoles became cheap.

Having both consoles and subscribing to both services now is probably a thing that only the super hardcore guys would do.

Scorpio is a new gen NeoGAF said me, why should numbers be together with XBO?

Ooh boy - the mods are active in this thread Know that this was probably a joke - but MS clearly stated that Scorpio isn't a new gen. And NPD, GFK and so on doesn't seem to offer different numbers for Ps4 Pro right now (according to the sparse info we get) - they probably won't do this for Scorpio - so it doesn't even matter what MS says or what GAF thinks. MS doesn't even release numbers anymore. But we'll have to see. Scorpio is one xear away and everything might change.

 

[HeWhoWalks]

xbox one will easily reach 50m lifetime sales.
likely 100m+ with the generationless approach

Thus, you expect every subsequent Xbox release to be called Xbox One?

 

[Wagram]

xbox one will easily reach 50m lifetime sales.
likely 100m+ with the generationless approach

Xbox One is never hitting 100m.

 

[InquisitorAles]

Would be silly to combine XB1 sales with Scorpio. Scorpio will be near 100% diffetent spec wise.

PS4 Pro is not 100% same as PS4 spec wise, but NPD is combining their sales. Same will be with Scorpio.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

well, it's going to be silly then...

MS will definitely put the two sales figures together, as Scorpio has been stated to be directly a super Xbox one, just like the Pro is to PS4. And what does 100% different spec wise even mean? They play the same games, the architecture is very very similar. What are you talking about?

What do you mean what am I even talking about lol.

Xbox 360 was backwards compatible with original Xbox, but people would laugh if you tried to pass off their sales as one figure.

But yeah, MS will definitely try to do this to hide poor sales for both in comparison to PS4 and Pro.

PS4 Pro is not 100% same as PS4 spec wise, but NPD is combining their sales. Same will be with Scorpio.

Yeah there's a difference between 100% the same and 100% different. Look it up.

 

[Elandyll]

Thus, you expect every subsequent Xbox release to be called Xbox One?

Might as well shoot for the billion+, specially with 1% of China in the mix.

 

[InquisitorAles]

Xbox One is never hitting 100m.

Xbox One alone obviously wont, but X1 + Scorpio and whatever will be next have a chance to do this.