SwiftDeath
Member
Honestly as others have suggested I think we might get actual price drops on XB1 SKUs for this holiday season. Maybe just game bundles but I'm thinking an actual price drop isn't too improbable either
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NPD Sales Results for June 2014 [Up3: All Hardware (June/LTD), Top 10 Software SKUs]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Honestly as others have suggested I think we might get actual price drops on XB1 SKUs for this holiday season. Maybe just game bundles but I'm thinking an actual price drop isn't too improbable either
Bitanator
Member
That is the problem though, that won't last, with more and more shelf space shifting away from the Vita, and when your monthly sales are optimistically 40-50 thousand if Minecraft could have an effect, that is still pathetic for a device in its third year in what seems like it could be its last holiday season.
Because the Wii market no longer exists for consoles. The waggle wii-bowling crowd isn't coming back and this last gen was an anomaly in overall system sales that will not be repeated.
and the depressing realism here is that there's no telling that these will be lasting numbers at all. microsoft and nintendo had to make some tough decisions and nintendo especially lucked into a bit of success with mario kart 8's exposure in order to get here. nintendo may be back to 15k a week in july and microsoft may be back down to 30k a week.
GoofsterStud
Member
Stockholders won't let that happen. To them it already had the price drop and the division is already leaking funds.
Devilgunman
Member
Many 360 owners might upgrade to PS4 instead of Xbone.
SwiftDeath
Member
MS has certainly been losing money it would seem on their hardware SKUs for XB1 but I feel they may yet get the okay for a big push this holiday season. We'll see though
It's reaching a point where the opportunity cost of bundling/advertising simply isn't worth it. Let's say a bundle triples sales. That sounds good in the abstract, but that would mean an extra 30k sales for the cost of additional advertising as well as the cost of paying Mojang for the copies of the games (I don't think people realize how expensive third party bundling can be. Unlike first party games, you can't just throw them in the box for free, unless those games are very old).
Unfortunately, this seems to be the case. Sony, MS and Nintendo seem incapable of competing with Apple and Google, who are far more competent companies at present.
It's particularly unfortunate, given that this "casual" crowd is the growth area of gaming, and given that they're currently the most profitable market segment. Nintendo and Microsoft's efforts to keep those customers on board failed, though, and Sony doesn't seem to have even really tried.
SwiftDeath
Member
Very true. I suppose much like with the Wii U I'm curious what would happen comparatively if either got Minecraft at launch
Vita's almost 3 years old I think? Wii U almost 2? And PS4/XB1 will get minecraft at the same time as Vita with Wii U ever getting it still up in the air.
Both Vita and Wii U scream mismanagement to me. Vita probably more so at least after release
I agree. I see a very weak gen ahead of us, especially when this generation is only going to be lasting between 5-6 years.
We won't be seeing 84+ million Xbox One's sold (especially when the system's pretty much obsolete outside of the U.S., unlike with Xbox 360 where it got 35+ million consoles sold outside U.S.), & we definitely won't see 100+ million Wii U's sold. While Sony may be the strongest with PS4, I can only see them score between 60 million to 70 million in the long run.
Duxxy3
Member
Yeah, but I don't think that has much to do with COD, that has to do with early adopters.
COD 360 gamers are more attached to the community and the controller (especially the controller) than other groups in gaming. Don't know why that is.
Ugh poor Vita, being outsold by the Wii
I really feel that given Vita's ultimate fate as a portable indie machine, the hardware is now hugely mismatched with its functionality.
The actual Vita hardware is built like a portable PS3, but that sort of hardware is completely unnecessary for what the system has ultimately become. In a less extreme form, it's like building a new cutting edge PC to play F2P titles and browser games. Sure, it works, but it's a hugely inefficient way to accomplish the task.
If Sony had known ahead of time what would happen, they could have made a significantly cheaper system that would have been a perfectly adequate portable-indie machine.
It didn't seem like Sony wanted that crowd too badly. In the end, they saved money instead of chasing the Kinect dream. They seem to be targeting more of the hardcore gamer with the whole VR push and less "media-box" marketing.
I don't think a contraction is necessarily a bad thing since I see the whole Wii thing as an anomaly that was a fluke and shouldn't exist when discussing console health because it really wasn't a sustainable thing due to the Apple/Google hand-me-down electronics game.
Companies will adjust and things will get back on track with more realistic expectations for this generation.
Think there will be a good mix...
You'll have 360 games moving to PS4 due to better multiplats or friends on PS4.
You'll have 360 gamers moving to XB1 due to exclusives and XBL (friends/features).
Going to be interesting -- definitely seems like there will be a huge number entering into current gen this Holiday season. Last gen game sales have been going down a lot.
SwiftDeath
Member
Sure but I'm not convinced that it would've sold to the hardcore like it has. It might've even garnered worse sales if that was possible. You see some vita owners complain when Sony doesn't announce a new AAA-esque title for it because they don't want a indie-port machine
I guess it would depend on how it affects other things. Cheaper hardware could've meant a lower price. That probably would've helped sales I guess.
It's certainly an interesting point though. Hard to say as there's many aspects to Vita's lackluster performance as I imagine memory cards would still be horribly priced
I don't know. It's not like every indie game is super weak in system requirements. Pixel Junk Shooter runs much slower on the same Vita that you say is too beefy for its indie purpose. I wouldn't be surprised if Rogue Legacy runs noticeably slower on Vita as well.
Indie games aren't necessarily doable on really weak hardware. Otherwise maybe the 3DS would be seeing more of them since it has the higher install base.
illmatic22
Banned
FFX HD>Lightning Returns is such a lovely thing to see.
I think the problem Microsoft faces is that they haven't done much to convince PS3 owners to move to XBO.
360 owners making the choice between PS4 and XBO is one thing, but if PS3 owners aren't making those same 2 choices for next gen, that's not good.
Mysterious
Banned
Edit: NVM.
Oh I'm sure Sony wanted them, they just aren't competent enough to compete with the current winners in that market. That is both an insult and a compliment to Sony; yes, I am saying that they simply aren't savvy enough to compete with Apple and Google right now, but they were at least smart enough to know that. Perhaps Nintendo and Microsoft should have been more aware of their deficiencies. Regardless, the "casual" market is considerably more profitable than the "hardcore" market: of course Sony would like to have them. They just can't.
Oh it's definitely a bad thing. It's not a fluke: it's a market segment that consoles had... and then lost to Apple and Google and Facebook. It would clearly be a good thing for consoles to have a fast growing, highly profitable market segment, but unfortunately nobody in the console segment seems competent enough to pull them back in again.
I think we will continue to see the gradual, relentless reduction in developers and releases on home consoles, and contraction of the overall install base will only hasten that process.
But that doesn't mean that consoles will die, of course; just that they are contracting down to a "core" consumer base over time. In this case, when I say "core," I don't mean "hardcore," I mean a group of consumers that is particularly attached to the home console form factor, the way there are handheld consumers who are particularly attached to handheld systems and are loathe to give them up for mobile phones or other portable devices.
If PS4 has been selling more units for 6 months in a row it's impossible for the gap to shrink. Maths!
Good point. I do know some that have moved from PS3 to XB1 but there's far more moving from PS3 to PS4 just due to the exclusives alone.
Aquamarine
Member
I'm guessing that we'll have 1 million entering October / November due to the Destiny SKU boost and general momentum.
Sure, I'm assuming it will take slightly less time than this too, considering future releases and marketing deals.
Really? There were no official pricedrops yet, but lots of innofficial ones to clear stock.
If they can sell bundles at like $450 it should be no big problem to sell the standard SKUs at $299/$399. At least that would move some units.
SwiftDeath
Member
With the current gap at around 660k currently, I imagine PS4 will outsell XB1 by at least 80k in July, maybe 90k in August, and maybe so much as 100k in September. So November sounds about right
First console: Company comes in as the upstart, shakes things up
Second console: Company builds on the success of their previous system, solidifies strong position
Third console: Company gets complacent with success, expects to win based on previous victories and "brand loyalty"
I totally believe in the third console curse, because I think it shows a natural and logical progression for a company and their console efforts. Of course, I also believe in ghosts.
I have it a 673k. Not thatit makes a giant difference, but I wonder where it comes from.
I got all the numbers from GAF NPD threads:
Code:
PS4 XB1
1 1138000 909000
2 860000 908000
3 275000 143000
4 285000 258000
5 371000 311000
6 199000 115000
7 195000 78000
8 269000 197000Maybe I missed some later adjustments or something.
Thankfully, consoles are still more capable at things than mobile devices, so any contraction will be very limited until such a time that PCs become compelling to gamers who traditionally buy consoles for that function.
And hopefully the reality of industry contraction will get a bunch of people to come to their damn senses and stop putting their own feet in the grave.
Aquamarine
Member
Nothing really. MK8 is supposed to carry them through the next couple of months.
There's the retail release of Wii Sports Club on July 25th...but we all know how "successful" the retail release of Wii Fit was.
On the subject of the Xbox One winning a month, I could see it happening if it has a really big release and a price cut in the same month. If like, Halo 6 or Gears 4 or 5 comes out the same month as a redesign and the PS4 has nothing going for it that month then I can see it happening.
The only other way I could see it happening is if Microsoft lucks into an exclusive that becomes a cultural phenomenon. This is the only way I see the Wii U doing really good numbers as well.
Otherwise I pretty much only see the PS4 winning every single month this gen from here on out unless something crazy happens.
The only other way I could see it happening is if Microsoft lucks into an exclusive that becomes a cultural phenomenon. This is the only way I see the Wii U doing really good numbers as well.
Otherwise I pretty much only see the PS4 winning every single month this gen from here on out unless something crazy happens.
SwiftDeath
Member
Ha I actually have the difference as 657k and simply deferred to Aqua's post earlier where she stated the difference was 661k
It is interesting how it starts to fragment a little even when the numbers seem to come from the same general vicinity
Dragonborn
Member
I don't think there's anyway Sony could compete with smartphones games. I mean, how could they when most big games on smart phones are simple F2P or 99 cent games. The big three just can't compete on that level
gundamkyoukai
Member
Of course Sony can't compete with Apple and Google PS4 \Sony can't compete with a OS no matter how cheap the system is , that time is long gone .
Sony was smart not go after a market that was never going to come back to consoles no matter what they did with PS4.
They will try with PSN now but that will be years or never before it has chance to be any good or take off.
1. Optimism, learning, working hard to carve out a unique and appealing niche.
2. Putting that learning into effect, consolidating your market, success.
3. We're the shit. We know it. You know it, and even if you don't - we know better than you. Buy it, we know you're going to.
Sounds silly and results oriented in a way, but it seems to be a recurring pattern with little more than a slight variation in the terminology required for applicable coherency for a variety of entirely different fields.
I think there's a possibility of a Halo MCC bundle taking 1 month NPD. But that's assuming a ton of hardcore Halo fans haven't already jumped in.
Bitanator
Member
That is not good, people completely abandoned "Wii" anything, maybe if Nintendo was not so damn stubborn that could see new life on mobile devices.
July's NPD for Wii U will not be pretty as Mario kart 8 winds down momentum. Hopefully it still creates more sales then in May.
theprodigy
Member
Just wait, Splatoon is gonna sell gangbusters /s
Totally forgot its NPD time anf wow, good on Nintendo making a strong comeback. The Wii U is not on a respirator just yet. Regarding Xbox One, I don't know if MS wants to be lagging all year to Sony. There 3rd party sales aren't even close to Sony's 3rd party and first party doesn't have the Nintendo effect to carry them through a tough console lifecycle. Alot of questions need answering from the Xbox Division as I'm sure investor unrest will increase. Seems like Black Friday will be a. Bloodbath as I forsee Xbox One to slash sales and maybe Sony also giving a small discount. So far this gen hasn't been as hyped like the start of last gen. Also I'm sad to see PS Vita sales falling off the map here. Yeah I own 2 Vita's as I'm worried that hardware will be limited out West. At least the PSP had bundles of hardware on hand.
I am from KSA and i have Wii U and nintendo dosn't support my contury so all poeple who buy wii u or any nintendo platform setup profile account as US region.
And alot of us buy wii U games from e-shop, my quastion is are they count us as US users and reflect to NPD results?
And alot of us buy wii U games from e-shop, my quastion is are they count us as US users and reflect to NPD results?
I'm sure they could compete, but it would probably require a dramatic change in approach and a lot more savvy. I've noticed this common refrain amongst many people (And I'm not trying to single you out here, it's a broader observation than that), suggesting that there is nothing console manufacturers can possibly do to stop the contraction and that nothing about home consoles can plausibly be changed.
That seems clearly silly to me. We have immediate, ample evidence that home consoles can attract these consumers; the Wii did a very good job of it just last generation. It's possible. It would probably require some real creative thinking, but I think a lot of gamers are quick to say it's not possible in part because they're sort of happy not having the console manufacturers catering to consumers who aren't them. That isn't intended to be accusatory -- who doesn't want corporations catering to them? -- it's only intended as an observation.
I seriously don't see that being bigger than Titanfall or the Kinectless-SKU in Holiday month which will probably be good for Sony as well. Likewise, I pretty much don't see ANY exclusive Xbox One game this gen doing the Xbox One enough favors to put it over the PS4 if it didn't outsell the PS4 in March or June. Unless Microsoft somehow completely changes the perception of the console which I honestly don't see happening.
Random question: What months did the PS3 outsell the 360 in the US?
Word of mouth. MK8 bundle sales were not front loaded, it had little impact in may, which made some people doubt its system selling potential. But it will keep selling Wii Us for years. Word of mouth is really good now for the console, I believe it can sustain steady sales.