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Omdia: Game Pass Currently at 41.7m Subs - Half on Ultimate Tier by end of 2023

adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Omdia = independent analysis firm based out of London.

Most analysts agree that Xbox Game Pass will be impacted the most by Microsoft acquiring Activision Blizzard, thanks to the expected injection of its back catalogue and future releases.

Omdia notes that PlayStation Plus is actually ahead with an estimated 50.1 million subscribers in 2023, compared to 41.7 million on Xbox (if you factor in users on Game Pass Core, formerly Xbox Live Gold). But it adds that Xbox Game Pass is ahead of PS Plus in regards to the tier mix and pricing structure.

"We estimate that nearly half of Xbox Game Pass subscribers will be on the Ultimate tier at the end of 2023,"
says Jijiashvili. "This is in stark contrast to PS Plus, which we estimate around two-thirds will be on the cheapest Essential tier."

Midia Research's senior games analyst Karol Severin:
He adds that subscriptions' role as the primary business model for a games platform remains unproven. While it offers a cost-effective experience for the user, it raises difficult financial questions when it comes to sustaining blockbuster games development.

Severin adds: "The acquisition will undoubtedly have a positive impact on Game Pass subscriptions, and with it publishers becoming more dependent on the Xbox ecosystem. One effect is their negotiating power will weaken in the process. Another effect is that as gamers increasingly pick up games subscriptions, they will likely buy fewer individual high price point games going forward."

Mike Rose, founder and director of publisher No More Robots:
Rose adds: "As Microsoft has said, Game Pass numbers have slowed and it’s started to hit what seems to be some kind of limit in terms of the number of people who are willing to subscribe. But if the latest Call of Duty lands on Game Pass, isn’t that just going to be too big to say no to? Are millions of people going to continue to pay $70 for CoD when they could go with Game Pass?

"Obviously from my perspective as someone with games on Game Pass, I hope they choose Game Pass — that’ll mean more players for my games on the service, potentially bigger Game Pass deals to go with the bigger subscriber numbers… definitely an outcome I’d be open to."

 
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If they can't even get the numbers right for PSPlus right...numbers that were always shown to us on Sony's quarter numbers, i don't know how they would get Gamepass ones right.

Opening topics on analysts never made any sense to me tbh.

PS Plus never got to 50M subscribers. Not even during covid. It didn't get there over the past 3 months lmao.
 
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adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
If they can't even get the numbers right for PSPlus right...numbers that were always shown to us on Sony's quarter numbers, i don't know how they would get Gamepass ones right.

Opening topics on analysts never made any sense to me tbh.

PS Plus never got to 50M subscribers. Not even during covid. It didn't get there over the past 3 months lmao.

The last time Sony reported, before they stopped reporting, it was around 48~ m if I'm not mistaken.
 

midnightAI

Member
If they can't even get the numbers right for PSPlus right...numbers that were always shown to us on Sony's quarter numbers, i don't know how they would get Gamepass ones right.

Opening topics on analysts never made any sense to me tbh.

PS Plus never got to 50M subscribers. Not even during covid. It didn't get there over the past 3 months lmao.
They use tried and tested formulas based on the TMB index (1) and BG analysis (2), these formulae have been used by Bloomberg, Kotaku and many other trusted websites and channels such as YouTube, Reddit and Twitter

(1) Trust Me Bro
(2) Bullshit Guestimate
 
The last time Sony reported, before they stopped reporting, it was around 48~ m if I'm not mistaken.
I think it was 47.7 or something. And it only got to 48M during covid. Now out if nowhere its over 50M…nah. Not realistic. In fact Sony is expecting a decrease in subscribers since the price decrease. That’s why next quarter they won’t reveal numbers anymore.

This article makes no sense.
 
So 41 million includes former Xbox Live + Gamepass?

That sounds about right, since previous estimates of Gamepass alone (without renaming and folding in numbers for former Xbox Live) was around 25 million.

The trick to making your subscription service look bigger is to rename a different older one and combine the two!
 
Oh, here's the rest of the article's section about Gamepass that the OP omitted for some reason:

He adds that subscriptions' role as the primary business model for a games platform remains unproven. While it offers a cost-effective experience for the user, it raises difficult financial questions when it comes to sustaining blockbuster games development.

Severin adds: "The acquisition will undoubtedly have a positive impact on Game Pass subscriptions, and with it publishers becoming more dependent on the Xbox ecosystem. One effect is their negotiating power will weaken in the process. Another effect is that as gamers increasingly pick up games subscriptions, they will likely buy fewer individual high price point games going forward."

Jörg Tittel – director of C-Smash VRS and The Last Worker, as well as host of the Directional Podcast with Chantal Ryan – worries about the impact on the visibility of indie games included in Game Pass, as well as the possibility of games in general becoming devalued.

"If you can get the new COD for 'free', why should you try out the next indie gem?" he says. "Especially since COD has been established as the most valuable game of all time – almost ten times more valuable than Skype, which Microsoft acquired years ago."

Rose adds: "As Microsoft has said, Game Pass numbers have slowed and it’s started to hit what seems to be some kind of limit in terms of the number of people who are willing to subscribe. But if the latest Call of Duty lands on Game Pass, isn’t that just going to be too big to say no to? Are millions of people going to continue to pay $70 for CoD when they could go with Game Pass?

"Obviously from my perspective as someone with games on Game Pass, I hope they choose Game Pass — that’ll mean more players for my games on the service, potentially bigger Game Pass deals to go with the bigger subscriber numbers… definitely an outcome I’d be open to."
 

adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Oh, here's the rest of the article's section about Gamepass that the OP omitted for some reason:

Game Pass sub count is the relevant news.

Analysts predicting loss in direct sales and a developer being happy with game pass' success isn't new, we've heard both points before elsewhere. But I'll add it in the OP just the same.
 
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gokurho

Member

Chukhopops

Member
"If you can get the new COD for 'free', why should you try out the next indie gem?" he says. "Especially since COD has been established as the most valuable game of all time – almost ten times more valuable than Skype, which Microsoft acquired years ago."
This is without a doubt the dumbest shit I have read this week. Does this guy believe people play indie games just because they are cheaper than AAA?
 

MrTired

Member
This is without a doubt the dumbest shit I have read this week. Does this guy believe people play indie games just because they are cheaper than AAA?
Why is it the dumbest take. The Market is dominant by AAA games they make up 90% of revenue. They make the overwhelming amount of time spent in gaming. Gamepass didn't start gaining traction on till the promise of Microsoft first party day and date.

If someone now has access to CoD,Diablo,Wow for no additional cost, which through multiplayer has unlimited replayability why would someone take there time to try out unknown quantity in an indie?

Yes party of the reason people are willing to take the risk of trying an unknown quantity is the barrier of entry price is less than AAA.

Microsoft want to be less dependent on third party that why they acquired publisher's. If they've got the back catalogue of ABK in addition to everything else they already own they don't need indie/AA games as much.
 

Kerotan

Member
If they can't even get the numbers right for PSPlus right...numbers that were always shown to us on Sony's quarter numbers, i don't know how they would get Gamepass ones right.

Opening topics on analysts never made any sense to me tbh.

PS Plus never got to 50M subscribers. Not even during covid. It didn't get there over the past 3 months lmao.
These numbers are made up because PS Plus subs were never that high.
 

Elios83

Member
So just an estimation where all the ex live Gold members have been converted to Gamepass users.
And the numbers are definetly wrong on Sony's side since they have definetly not crossed the 50m line based on their official reports so they're also likely wrong on the other side as well.

So nothing to see until Microsoft announces something although with the fact they have killed Gold and trasformed it into GP core waters have been muddied, the growth compared to the previous 25m number won't be directly comparable.
 
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BatSu

Member
how can anyone not see that this will ruin the industry
thanos-marvel.gif
 

Mowcno

Member
Oh right it's now including the equivalent of Xbox live gold. I thought they were saying there was an increase from the 25m which obviously is ridiculous.

PS+ still ahead shows gamepass for PC hasnt really taken off in a big way.
 
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StereoVsn

Member
Severin adds: "The acquisition will undoubtedly have a positive impact on Game Pass subscriptions, and with it publishers becoming more dependent on the Xbox ecosystem. One effect is their negotiating power will weaken in the process. Another effect is that as gamers increasingly pick up games subscriptions, they will likely buy fewer individual high price point games going forward."”

But it’s all about Competition and positive affect of GamePass on games sales! Phil told us that.

q8BI4K7.jpg
 

Chukhopops

Member
Why is it the dumbest take. The Market is dominant by AAA games they make up 90% of revenue. They make the overwhelming amount of time spent in gaming. Gamepass didn't start gaining traction on till the promise of Microsoft first party day and date.

If someone now has access to CoD,Diablo,Wow for no additional cost, which through multiplayer has unlimited replayability why would someone take there time to try out unknown quantity in an indie?

Yes party of the reason people are willing to take the risk of trying an unknown quantity is the barrier of entry price is less than AAA.

Microsoft want to be less dependent on third party that why they acquired publisher's. If they've got the back catalogue of ABK in addition to everything else they already own they don't need indie/AA games as much.
What I argue isn’t that MS will be less dependent on indies once they have acquired a strong first party lineup. This seems true and you can see it this year already where there have been way fewer indies on GP compared to 2022. Little by little they’ll be replaced in the catalog by first party games and AA games.

I disagree with the idea that people play indie games because CoD or other AAA games cost money to buy, and that they will stop if CoD is on GP. People play indies because they want to, because they have a different approach compared to AAA games, not because they are cheaper.
 

damidu

Member
o geez, i guess this is the number, the shills will parrot from now on.
fine for phil, if it can fool the stockholders bit longer as "unprecedented growth"
 

Mowcno

Member
They are counting coverted live subs. So 25 mi like last 2 years.
Pretty much. There's no evidence of if their is growth or not here as we don't have numbers including GOLD subscriptions from before. Gamepass Ultimate/PC could remain at 25m as it has been stuck at for a while according to Phil Spencer himself. Xbox Live Gold (Now gamepass core) may have even declined as people from Xbox One continue to drop off and don't upgrade to Series.

So this 41.7m number may be higher, may be flat or may be even lower than 2022. Regardless it's going to be hard for microsoft to grow subscribers substantially further as their hardware business is stumbling heavily this year and getting people on PC onboard is proving a challenge.
 
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Dick Jones

Gold Member
Pretty much. There's no evidence of if their is growth or not here as we don't have numbers including GOLD subscriptions from before. Gamepass Ultimate/PC could remain at 25m as it has been stuck at for a while according to Phil Spencer himself. Xbox Live Gold (Now gamepass core) may have even declined as people from Xbox One continue to drop off and don't upgrade to Series.

So this 41.7m number may be higher, may be flat or may be even lower than 2022.
It's like converting inches to centimetres and claiming there is growth in your johnson because the new number is bigger.
 

Sanepar

Member
Pretty much. There's no evidence of if their is growth or not here as we don't have numbers including GOLD subscriptions from before. Gamepass Ultimate/PC could remain at 25m as it has been stuck at for a while according to Phil Spencer himself. Xbox Live Gold (Now gamepass core) may have even declined as people from Xbox One continue to drop off and don't upgrade to Series.

So this 41.7m number may be higher, may be flat or may be even lower than 2022. Regardless it's going to be hard for microsoft to grow subscribers substantially further as their hardware business is stumbling heavily this year and getting people on PC onboard is proving a challenge.
I knew they will try that fake numbers with convertion trying to show a fake growth.
 
Almost 42 m subs before the activision acquisition even closed.

The analysts are predicting the acquisition will cause even more people to join.

50m before 2024 is over ? 🤔

I'd say yes.. There is another year before the next Call of Duty 2024 launches on Game Pass day 1. Its possible they could be close to 50 million before the game comes out because MS will have CoD marketing and a lot of casuals will think the game is exclusive to Xbox or just want it cheaper on Game Pass. so they may buy an xbox before the game laucnches. Then CoD launches and they easily cross 50 million subs by end of 2024.
 

tmlDan

Member
Again, can you share the numbers? Cost of acquiring games? cost of dev? and how it is funded by GP completely (or GP exceeding costs)?

Phil has lied enough that i'd need them to show those numbers in a quarterly report before i believe his statements. After seeing the expected cost of acquiring games on GP day one in the leaks my doubts grew even larger that its profitable, even breaking even seems unlikely. He may attribute xbox as a whole as profitable and apply it to GP because xbox = GP now.
 
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adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?

Yep, it has stopped being a loss leader for years.

You'll probably get some people try to gotcha by saying how it fully funds game development, but why does game pass alone need to fully fund a games development which is also sold on retail ? It's a silly point entirely.
 

analog_future

Resident Crybaby
Again, can you share the numbers? Cost of acquiring games? cost of dev? and how it is funded by GP completely (or GP exceeding costs)?

Phil has lied enough that i'd need them to show those numbers in a quarterly report before i believe his statements. After seeing the expected cost of acquiring games on GP day one in the leaks my doubts grew even larger that its profitable, even breaking even seems unlikely. He may attribute xbox as a whole as profitable and apply it to GP because xbox = GP now.

Why would I be able to share the numbers? I can't share the numbers any more than I can share the numbers of how much it costs Sony to pay for their timed exclusives.


You having a weird conspiratorial mindset doesn't make Game Pass any less profitable.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Oh, here's the rest of the article's section about Gamepass that the OP omitted for some reason:

Exactly! Plus I think gamers are smarter than these people think they are. Call of Duty is HUGE! But will it make every COD player sign up for GamePass just so they don't have to pay $70? HECK NAH! GamePass will cost you $200 a year, vs. $70 for COD.
 
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