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[sonycowboy]

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA634677.html

Never bluff small.

That’s the lesson for HD DVD supporters, as they try to find a face-saving way to let the format’s launch date slip into 2006.

With time running out to get product onto retail shelves in time for the format’s much-touted fourth-quarter debut, HD DVD’s principal hardware backer, Toshiba, says it is “on schedule” for this year. But it has yet to offer details on when players will be available, how many will be shipped, their features, price or likely retail mix.

In fact, the company has been unable to start building players due to a delay in final technical specs and licensing terms for the Advanced Access Content System copy-protection scheme, which are still pending.

With so much uncertainty on the hardware side, the studios nominally backing the format are starting to go squishy on their own fourth-quarter plans.

Paramount seems to be falling back on its original position of releasing titles in 2006, NBC/Universal is hemming and hawing, and Warner says it will release titles “when the players are available” but can’t say when that will be (see chart, page 1).

As it stands, the most likely scenario is that a small number of players—perhaps 50,000-100,000—will arrive on store shelves in early December, accompanied by a handful of titles from Warner and perhaps Universal.

From a marketing perspective, it would probably be better for all concerned if it didn’t happen.

The only reason it might is due to the studios’ own earlier posturing.

The first unveiling of studio support for HD DVD, in November 2004, was supposed to involve Warner, Universal, Paramount and Disney. Its aim was to create the appearance of a broad industry move toward HD DVD in order to put pressure on the rival Blu-ray camp to either give up or at least agree to serious negotiations on a unified format.

At the time, none of the studios was firm on a launch date for HD DVD, because no one expected to have to go ahead with one without the rest of the industry on board. However, Disney demurred in the end, and the other three studios were left to proceed without the Mouse.

When that bluff didn’t work, they turned up the heat, staging an elaborate press conference at CES in January to unveil the “fourth-quarter 2005” launch plans, complete with a list of 89 titles. But once again, the demonstration was meant mostly for tourists.

Although the studios made an elaborate show of their determination to forge ahead with HD DVD, their goal all along was to pressure Blu-ray into a compromise. To maintain the pressure, they’ve had to keep up the appearance of fourth-quarter launch planning in the months since.

What no one counted on was that people outside the inner circle might actually take their pronouncements seriously and start to expect a substantial fourth-quarter launch of high-definition DVD.

Now that they’ve created that expectation, Toshiba and the studios are trying to figure how bad they’ll look for not meeting it.

Had HD DVD supporters really wanted to play hardball with the Blu-ray group, there were points where they could have raised the stakes much higher.

The 10 hardware vendors who comprised the original Blu-ray Disc Founders Group sit on the steering committee of the DVD Forum, the industry-wide consortium that oversaw the development of HD DVD (VB, 1-24-03).

For several months in 2003, the Blu-ray companies managed to effectively hold up the Forum’s approval of the HD DVD design work done by Toshiba either by voting against adoption or abstaining from votes to deny Toshiba the majority it needed on the steering committee.

While that doesn’t mean the Blu-ray companies did anything illegal, an aggressive gambler might have at least brought those votes to the attention of anti-trust regulators, or even filed litigation, to gain leverage at the table.

The Blu-ray side was betting Toshiba and its allies wouldn’t go that far, and their bet was never called.

 

[xexex]

the AOD format must die (HD-DVD)

 

[Mrbob]

the AOD format must die (HD-DVD)

Yup.

I don't have more to add at the moment.

 

[Stinkles]

Thanks Lawyers. Again, your fine work improves technology for the people.

 

[jett]

Right now, somewhere in Japan, Ken Kutaragi is going HUAHUAHUAHUAHUAHUAHUA

 

[Izzy]

Let's be honest here - HD-DVD is dead in the water.

 

[golem]

yep.. if no hd-dvd this year, im just gonna wait for bluray/ps3

i was really looking forward to batman begins hddvd too :/

 

[Ranger X]

Ok so Blue Ray wins? Only one standard? Thank you very much bye.

 

[Elios83]

If HD-DVD players are delayed until PS3 comes out,then it's game over for them.

 

[sonycowboy]

It really makes you wonder.

Sony is probably thanking Microsoft profusely for declaring this the HD-era and then not having an HD-Era movie player. Sony looks to make billions off of the Blu-Ray license over the next 10 years and Microsoft will be indirectly helping promote the emergence of an HD movie format by pushing the adoption of HDTV's

 

[chinch]

makes you wonder really if there is any chance of these formats succeeding.... they're facing a huge uphill battle against extinction like CDs are in terms of music.

odivx and other downloadable HD formats is sooooo much more sensible of a way to go for tekkies and mass market doesn't need HD/BRD this year or next.

 

[Suikoguy]

makes you wonder really if there is any chance of these formats succeeding.... they're facing a huge uphill battle against extinction like CDs are in terms of music.

odivx and other downloadable HD formats is sooooo much more sensible of a way to go for tekkies and mass market doesn't need HD/BRD this year or next.

Exactly why Blu-Ray has this in the bag, soley based on PS3.
HD-DVD has to sell these players (and would have had this holiday season to gain mindshare and marketshare), meanwhile next year its going to be an automatic 2-4 million for Blu-Ray worldwide, if not more. Not saying everybody who owns the PS3 will buy movies for it, but those with HDTV's are certainly going to consider it. If movies are < $35 i'll be buying at least a few favorites. If I was an avid movie fan, and owned a PS3 and HDTV, i'd strongly consider getting a PS3. I'm going to guess many in the same situation, would consider that.

This is in addition to any player sales blu-ray has by itself, without PS3.

Every week that goes by, Toshiba must be wondering "Why the hell did we not finish negotiations?"

 

[Andrew2]

HD-Dvd has always been dead. In fact the thought that Lions Gate being the only independent movie studio to support Blu-Ray is only going to get other independents behind Blu Ray for the very reason LG joined. You can also count on the fact the big porn studios are voicing thier favor for Blu Ray.

In the end while things look to bleak for HD-Dvd, Toshiba has 2 choices: 1)restart unification talks with Sony and come to a swift agreement or 2) become enbattled in a format war where they stand the great potential of loosing thanks in part to the PS3 being a carrier of Blu Ray and also loosing millions upon millions in R&D promotional cost.

 

[Ponn]

Exactly why Blu-Ray has this in the bag, soley based on PS3.
HD-DVD has to sell these players (and would have had this holiday season to gain mindshare and marketshare), meanwhile next year its going to be an automatic 2-4 million for Blu-Ray worldwide, if not more. Not saying everybody who owns the PS3 will buy movies for it, but those with HDTV's are certainly going to consider it. If movies are < $35 i'll be buying at least a few favorites. If I was an avid movie fan, and owned a PS3 and HDTV, i'd strongly consider getting a PS3. I'm going to guess many in the same situation, would consider that.

This is in addition to any player sales blu-ray has by itself, without PS3.

Every week that goes by, Toshiba must be wondering "Why the hell did we not finish negotiations?"

Yup yup. HDD irrelevant. Blu-Ray drive equals sale. HD era finally here thank god. I can stop watching all the damn HD Discovery channels showing nothing but animals and mountains. Cute, but I want more shit blowing up in HD thank you very much and DVD's don't cut it anymore.

 

[HomerSimpson-Man]

If the PSP got companies to get into gear to bring movies on UMD on the only machine that can play the UMD, surely something like the PS3 having Blu-ray right off the bat would entice them to support it easier.

 

[sonycowboy]

If the PSP got companies to get into gear to bring movies on UMD on the only machine that can play the UMD, surely something like the PS3 having Blu-ray right off the bat would entice them to support it easier.

Let's just say, that Sony already thought of this. The word is that they packaged the two together when promoting and rounding up support.

 

[Synth_floyd]

Who's going to support another DVD format? For those people with huge collections of DVD movies are they going to go and buy them all again? Blu-ray will get good use for games since it can store more data than regular DVDs but for movies, it might just be another laserdisc.

 

[Guy LeDouche]

Who's going to support another DVD format? For those people with huge collections of DVD movies are they going to go and buy them all again? Blu-ray will get good use for games since it can store more data than regular DVDs but for movies, it might just be another laserdisc.

no. Blu-ray players (PS3 included) will still play your SpiceWorld DVD, but if you want to start buying high-def movies to enjoy whenever you get a HDTV, you'll be set.

 

[sonycowboy]

Who's going to support another DVD format? For those people with huge collections of DVD movies are they going to go and buy them all again? Blu-ray will get good use for games since it can store more data than regular DVDs but for movies, it might just be another laserdisc.

Why do people always bring up this pathetic argument. You don't have to rebuy ANY movies. Now, Star Wars, the Matrix, Lord of the Rings (2 out of 3 would be on HD-DVD) I can see, but most movies, why bother?

80% of DVD sales are new releases, so just buy the Blu-Ray versions going forward and you're fine. It's not like VHS->DVD or Cassette->CD. The format is backwards compatible. In fact, it's almost guaranteed that your DVD will look better playing through a Blu-Ray player than it does on a normal DVD player as they will likely support a pretty nifty upscanning capability for existing DVD's. And some of the existing upscanned players are pretty darn nice.

 

[Ponn]

Who's going to support another DVD format? For those people with huge collections of DVD movies are they going to go and buy them all again? Blu-ray will get good use for games since it can store more data than regular DVDs but for movies, it might just be another laserdisc.

Actually that's what I was figuring on too and i'm fine with that. My worry was that niche market for the time being caught in a format war with HD-DVD and both destroying any consumers they may have. Thankfully the good news keeps rolling in on this front and HD-DVD will be DOA out the gate. Laserdisc actually didn't have bad support and quite a few good and geekcentric discs were released so as long as all the movies I want to see in HD come out, great bring them on.

And what is with people hearing about new formats (UMD, Blu-Ray, HD-DVD) and right away saying "IM NOT BUYING MY WHOLE COLLECTION OVER AGAIN!!" Damn people, nobody said you had too, but if you have the damn player you certainly will be buying all new releases in the format wouldn't you? And there are always a few personal titles you will always buy again (Star Wars, Kill Bill, Sin City, LoTR, etc).

 

[gofreak]

Why do people always bring up this pathetic argument. You don't have to rebuy ANY movies. Now, Star Wars, the Matrix, Lord of the Rings (2 out of 3 would be on HD-DVD) I can see, but most movies, why bother?

80% of DVD sales are new releases, so just buy the Blu-Ray versions going forward and you're fine.

True, you just start buying the new discs instead going forward. Your old DVD collection is still there. And it's worth noting that apparently (?), on Bluray players at least, upconversion of DVDs is standard.

edit - doh, i should perhaps try finishing posts before responding! beaten to it..by sonycowboy

 

[Kintaro]

I look forward more to stand alone Blu Ray players than the shit they will throw in PS3. If PS2's shittastic DVD playback is any indication, PS3's Blu Ray playback will be pretty ass too.

 

[genjiZERO]

Why do people always bring up this pathetic argument. You don't have to rebuy ANY movies. Now, Star Wars, the Matrix, Lord of the Rings (2 out of 3 would be on HD-DVD) I can see, but most movies, why bother?

80% of DVD sales are new releases, so just buy the Blu-Ray versions going forward and you're fine. It's not like VHS->DVD or Cassette->CD. The format is backwards compatible. In fact, it's almost guaranteed that your DVD will look better playing through a Blu-Ray player than it does on a normal DVD player as they will likely support a pretty nifty upscanning capability for existing DVD's. And some of the existing upscanned players are pretty darn nice.

Exactly. Companies wll just faze out regular DVDs and George Lucas will find another way to gorge us for money (honestly I own like 4 different versions of StarWars).

 

[Orin GA]

In the end, what is the difference between the Blu-ray and HD-DVD besides HD-DVD 40 gig to Blue-Ray's 60 Gigs?

 

[Rhindle]

Toshiba has blinked. Sony's next. Watch.

 

[Kleegamefan]

Let's just say, that Sony already thought of this. The word is that they packaged the two together when promoting and rounding up support.

I have also heard this....

In the end, what is the difference between the Blu-ray and HD-DVD besides HD-DVD 40 gig to Blue-Ray's 60 Gigs?

There are actually alot of differences, here are a few:

http://www.cdfreaks.com/article/186

True, you just start buying the new discs instead going forward. Your old DVD collection is still there. And it's worth noting that apparently (?), on Bluray players at least, upconversion of DVDs is standard.

Yes, all BRD player or Recorders will upconvert DVDs....this will probably be true of HD-DVD player/recorders too..... if they get off the ground, that is...

 

[mckmas8808]

Let's just say, that Sony already thought of this. The word is that they packaged the two together when promoting and rounding up support.

I have also heard this....

Of course you have. From people like us. I know I've been saying this for the longest time. If UMD movies can sell on the PSP, why not BD on the PS3?

Some companies are just dumb as fcuk. Stupid, stupid, stupid.

 

[FightyF]

Scrap HD-DVD and make something better is how I'd "save face".

Blu Ray is coming out too soon. The market doesn't need either format at the moment. So make something far better than Blu Ray and pitch it to everyone.

 

[januswon]

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA634677.html
Paramount seems to be falling back on its original position of releasing titles in 2006, NBC/Universal is hemming and hawing, and Warner says it will release titles “when the players are available” but can’t say when that will be (see chart, page 1).

excuse me
where is chart, page 1?

um, may be in the VB Magazine hardcopy

 

[Tenacious-V]

I hope they both die a horrible horrible death. We don't need a next gen video format yet, DVD is doing just fine, why kill it off so early....

I want HVD when it's ready!! 200GB per layer, that's a true next gen format. Not either of these stop gaps.....

 

[HomerSimpson-Man]

I hope they both die a horrible horrible death. We don't need a next gen video format yet, DVD is doing just fine, why kill it off so early....

I want HVD when it's ready!! 200GB per layer, that's a true next gen format. Not either of these stop gaps.....

Kill it off early? DVD would be a decade old by 2006.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

Kill it off early? DVD would be a decade old by 2006.

And it took roughly 4 years for it to have the breadth of content and price point where people started to actually care about it in a decently mass-market way. Unlike DVD, these new HD-formats have a much more limited value to the average consumer, where DVD's benefits were apparent without the need for better displays to get the full benefit of the new, higher-quality visuals. HD-disc formats might take another four years to even start taking a hold on the market. With DVD, the benefits were vastly improved visual clarity, vastly better sound quality and options, and instant access to the content stored on the disc. With the HD-formats, it's only an incremental improvement in storage, quality, and that's it. Like I said, you'd also need an HDCP-compliant HDTV to take advantage of the newer, higher-resolution video formats.

HDTV penetration is still pathetically small, but by four years time, it'll probably start to approach the levels of penetration needed for the new HD-disc formats to achieve a level of their own market penetration that mirrors the market back in 2001.

My point is, the value of having a BR-ROM or HD-DVD movie disc capable system is pretty damned slim, with little indication, AFAICT, that the masses even know or care about this shit as far as buying a console for it. It's too early and just serves to provide an extra bullet point on the back of the package. The studios and hardware-providers of these new formats have a vested interest in rapidly deploying a new standard in DRM, but this push is squarely one that doesn't match the public's interests, IMO.

 

[JadedGamer]

Kill it off early? DVD would be a decade old by 2006.

So CD is like 20 years old and there will never be a better format for music.

 

[bill0527]

Call me in 5 years or so when I might give a damn.

I fucked up big on early adoption of an HDTV that I spent $2200 for back in January 2003.

It doesn't have a DVI or HDMI port so no next generation DVD for me until I decide to buy a new TV sometime around 2010.

I'm not spending that kind of money every 3 years when somebody decides to come up with a new standard... and oh, you can bet they will come up with new standards once the pirates bust HDMI.

So go ahead and laugh at my unfortunate plight, but I'll have my sweet revenge on all of you that are purchasing HDTVs in the next year. Once the pirates bust HDMI, the manufacturers will come up with another new standard that will make that purchase you are making now completely obselete. Then you can jump on the paid-a-lot-of-money-2-years-ago-but-now-its-obselete-bandwagon with me.

 

[Open Source]

Just because it's a battle doesn't mean there has to be a winner.

DVD was a big upgrade from VHS in ways that mattered to Average Joe. Blu-ray and HD-DVD aren't.

 

[JadedGamer]

Call me in 5 years or so when I might give a damn.

I fucked up big on early adoption of an HDTV that I spent $2200 for back in January 2003.

It doesn't have a DVI or HDMI port so no next generation DVD for me until I decide to buy a new TV sometime around 2010.

I'm not spending that kind of money every year 3 years when somebody decides to come up with a new standard... and oh, you can bet they will come up with new standards once the pirates bust HDMI.

So go ahead and laugh at my unfortunate plight, but I'll have my sweet revenge on all of you that are purchasing HDTVs in the next year. Once the pirates bust HDMI, the manufacturers will come up with another new standard that will make that purchase you are making now completely obselete. Then you can jump on the paid-a-lot-of-money-2-years-ago-but-now-its-obselete-bandwagon with me.

I agree right now Sony is wasting their time and resources just so they could say they were first.

 

[DJ_Tet]

Device keys and media keys are still there, with a major change, in the first steps of content decryption, a player has to find its specific key in a big ternary tree of keys, where each leaf corresponds to the key of a given device (brand and model). By denying a drive to find its key in the tree, Blu-ray and HD-DVD can easily revoke a single given device. If for instance a given player is cracked and its keys are published, the licensing authority will send new keys and navigation information to disc manufacturers. As a result, all discs pressed after the player has been cracked will refuse to play on this specific drive, but will play perfectly on all other (including older) devices.

Umm, what? So once a pirate cracks the PS3 codes, all PS3s will be unable to play any new movies?

I believe I'll stay in my SD hell before I buy a player that may or may not play all new discs.

 

[jett]

So CD is like 20 years old and there will never be a better format for music.

SACD would like to have a word with you.

 

[JadedGamer]

Just because it's a battle doesn't mean there has to be a winner.

DVD was a big upgrade from VHS in ways that mattered to Average Joe. Blu-ray and HD-DVD aren't.

Couldn't have said it better myself. Maybe I have bad eyes but to me progressive scan DVDs look great on my HDTV, the difference between them and 1080i video on HD DirecTV isn't too big IMO.

 

[JadedGamer]

SACD would like to have a word with you.

Is that another crap Sony format? CD is better.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

I agree right now Sony is wasting their time and resources just so they could say they were first.

But that's not why they're pushing BR. They're looking at pushing a new standard that they have better control over and one that they can use to with their movie studios for increased profitability by creating new markets for the enthusiast.

 

[WrathOfOtaibah]

SACD would like to have a word with you.

I think he means in terms of commercial success. If that is the case, I'd agree with him.

Anyway, I own a 1080i TV but would like to see some kind of support and soon. Watching movies in Progressive Scan is like moving up from hamburger to steak.

 

[jett]

Is that another crap Sony format? CD is better.

You ignorant fool.

http://www.timefordvd.com/tutorial/pf/SACDOverview.shtml

 

[Suikoguy]

Couldn't have said it better myself. Maybe I have bad eyes but to me progressive scan DVDs look great on my HDTV, the difference between them and 1080i video on HD DirecTV isn't too big IMO.

There is your problem, DirectTV HD sucks, besides the fact they are still using MPEG2 compression for those channels, they choose a lower bitrate. Dishnetwork is a bit better, but still is using MPEG2 also.

 

[Zaptruder]

Couldn't have said it better myself. Maybe I have bad eyes but to me progressive scan DVDs look great on my HDTV, the difference between them and 1080i video on HD DirecTV isn't too big IMO.

You've got bad eyes.

the difference between 480 and 720 is really pretty noticable.

 

[Kleegamefan]

Is that another crap Sony format? CD is better.

I think you would look a lot less foolish, were it not for the fact the CD was invented by Philips and Sony

 

[JadedGamer]

You ignorant fool.

http://www.timefordvd.com/tutorial/pf/SACDOverview.shtml

Just like I said it sucks. CD is much more convenient.

 

[jett]

Please explain how, considering there are Hybrid SACDs that contain both the SACD layer and the regular CD layer, at the cost of a regular CD. How is a CD better?

Oh why am I bothering anyway, you have the markings of a dumb xbot AND an OA member.

 

[JadedGamer]

Please explain how, considering there are Hybrid SACDs that contain both the SACD layer and the regular CD layer, at the cost of a regular CD. How is a CD better?

Oh why am I bothering anyway, you have the markings of a dumb xbot AND an OA member.

If SACD is so good explain to me why CDs kills them probably 1000:1 in sales. Plus I use my CDs for my iPod and Xbox(soon to be 360), which puts them in a different format. For me CDs are better, because I don't have an SACD player and don't see a need for one, its useless. Music only needs to be in 2CH if you are using headphones...

 

[Izzy]

SACD would like to have a word with you.

Is that another crap Sony format? CD is better.

May I suggest an IQ text?