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[hodayathink]

Mark Kirk winning a seat isn't surprising. If the populations in or around Chicago vote even remotely Republican a Republican has a chance to win because the majority of Illinois votes Republican to begin with.

This isn't really an accurate reading of Illinois politics, though. Looking at the two most recent statewide elected Republicans (Rauner and Kirk), one was elected in the Republican wave of 2010, which in addition to that, as stated earlier in this thread, was a low point for the Illinois Democratic Party as the former governor had just gotten impeached and convicted on corruption charges. The other was the replacement for the ineffective successor of said impeached governor. Also, it's hard for even the Chicago Metro area to vote Republican enough for the rest of the state to matter, mostly because that area makes up like 60-75% of the state's population, and because you still have smaller cities like Peoria and East. St Louis and Bloomington-Normal and Champaign-Urbana that go Dem consistently.

tl;dr: It took the 2010 Republican wave AND a high-level impeachment for Republicans to barely eek out 2 wins.

 

[Briarios]

I don't think people understand midterm elections -- voter numbers are much lower and it's about who gets motivated. Right now, Democrats are far more motivated to go out and vote, which is why there are opportunities for them and why the GOP is scared. We see surprise results in midterms all the time because of this factor.

 

[Socivol]

This isn't really an accurate reading of Illinois politics, though. The most recent statewide elected Republicans (Rauner and Kirk) were both elected in the Republican wave of 2010, which in addition to that, as stated earlier in this thread, was a low point for the Illinois Democratic Party as the former governor had just gotten impeached and convicted on corruption charges. Also, it's hard for even the Chicago Metro area to vote Republican enough for the rest of the state to matter, mostly because that area makes up like 60-75% of the state's population, and because you still have smaller cities like Peoria and East. St Louis and Bloomington-Normal and Champaign-Urbana that go Dem consistently.

tl;dr: It took the 2010 Republican wave AND a high-level impeachment for Republicans to barely eek out 2 wins.

Rauner was elected in 2014 and he only won because Pat Quinn was complete trash. Tennessee is a state that Trump isn't receiving a lot of pushback from. In fact, Corker caught shit for questioning him. The urban areas aren't enough to be able to win the state and the population is behind Trump right now. All Trump has to do is point out how Corker questioned his ability to lead and push his support behind a Republican candidate and they will win.

I would love to be wrong but I just don't see it. I'm from Tennessee and I went home a few weeks ago and was disgusted by all of the Trump support I saw. Tennessee is a solid Trump state because of a large population of uneducated white voters that are pissed off and angry that they didn't adapt with the times and find their lives more difficult because of it. Unless something drastically changed in the next year I just can't see it being a state that is in play for the Senate. Even more urban areas in Tennessee vote Republican the only areas that typically don't are Nashville, Memphis, and Jackson and that's not enough to overcome the rest of the state. These voters aren't the ones that are "moderate" Republicans most of them are staunch right wing conservatives.

 

[Not]

2018 is going to be a hell of an election year. Hoping the get out the vote apparatus takes this as seriously as they should.

Nope! Dems won't come out for midterms, like usual.

But at least I will.

 

[Shauni]

Nope! Dems won't come out for midterms, like usual.

But at least I will.

Yep, there's never been a time in US history that Democrats made gains in midterm elections

 

[hodayathink]

Yep, there's never been a time in US history that Democrats made gains in midterm elections

Especially with an unpopular sitting president. Hasn't happened.

Rauner was elected in 2014 and he only won because Pat Quinn was complete trash. Tennessee is a state that Trump isn't receiving a lot of pushback from. In fact, Corker caught shit for questioning him. The urban areas aren't enough to be able to win the state and the population is behind Trump right now. All Trump has to do is point out how Corker questioned his ability to lead and push his support behind a Republican candidate and they will win.

I would love to be wrong but I just don't see it. I'm from Tennessee and I went home a few weeks ago and was disgusted by all of the Trump support I saw. Tennessee is a solid Trump state because of a large population of uneducated white voters that are pissed off and angry that they didn't adapt with the times and find their lives more difficult because of it. Unless something drastically changed in the next year I just can't see it being a state that is in play for the Senate. Even more urban areas in Tennessee vote Republican the only areas that typically don't are Nashville, Memphis, and Jackson and that's not enough to overcome the rest of the state. These voters aren't the ones that are "moderate" Republicans most of them are staunch right wing conservatives.

Without living there, I don't think it's impossible with the way the headwinds are going, but it would take there being an already popular statewide Democratic candidate, AND whomever the Republican nominee is being bad enough to actually turn off moderates. And while one of those things is arguably possible, both of them is highly unlikely. Not impossible, but highly unlikely.

 

[Mortemis]

Yep, there's never been a time in US history that Democrats made gains in midterm elections

Some love to ignore historical data about the party that holds the White House having losses during midterm elections (more so if there's someone unpopular in there), it just doesn't stoke their pessimistic angle.

 

[Not]

LET BE ME PESSIMISTIC

 

[Socivol]

Especially with an unpopular sitting president. Hasn't happened.



Without living there, I don't think it's impossible with the way the headwinds are going, but it would take there being an already popular statewide Democratic candidate, AND whomever the Republican nominee is being bad enough to actually turn off moderates. And while one of those things is arguably possible, both of them is highly unlikely. Not impossible, but highly unlikely.

I think the only way for Republicans to lose is for Donald Trump to piss off his uneducated white voting base. So far, they seem to be loving him down there so that doesn't seem likely. Tennessee hasn't had a Democratic US Senator in 22 years btw. I think it would really take a perfect storm for that to happen.

 

[fredrancour]

Some love to ignore historical data about the party that holds the White House having losses during midterm elections (more so if there's someone unpopular in there), it just doesn't stoke their pessimistic angle.

two of the counterexamples are in the limited living memory of the average gaffer with 2002's patriotic rallying effect and 1998's "why are you all being such sore losers this impeachment was ridiculous" effect. it doesn't feel like "the president's party gets screwed unless something insane happens" to lots of people. It feels like "democrats don't show up during midterms unless something insane happens."

Of course, even by that assessment, everything trumpy counts as "something insane" so we're back at pessimism-addicts.

 

[brianmcdoogle]

LET BE ME PESSIMISTIC

Pessimism is ok, but just don't be one of those people here who substitute cynicism for intelligence or insight.

They already have the strongest candidate with Kyrsten Sinema.

I thought she won by a very small margin but it was bigger than I thought, including her reelection.

 

[Mortemis]

two of the counterexamples are in the limited living memory of the average gaffer with 2002's patriotic rallying effect and 1998's "why are you all being such sore losers this impeachment was ridiculous" effect. it doesn't feel like "the president's party gets screwed unless something insane happens" to lots of people. It feels like "democrats don't show up during midterms unless something insane happens."

Of course, even by that assessment, everything trumpy counts as "something insane" so we're back at pessimism-addicts.

Yeah that's fair enough. And to be clear it's not like I'm expecting something like 2006, I just don't think we'll get low turnout similar to the last two midterm elections.