-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Console sales ratio is pretty much the same as last generation at this point. PS4 didn’t get 2:1 in a year and a half.
Stop being desperate for some comeback and a win. Sony ships way more consoles a year than MS. Just as they did last generation.
You people keep ignoring real data. On purpose. Don’t know what kind of drastic change some of youl are expecting this generation.
Good for you though.
Stop being desperate for some comeback and a win. Sony ships way more consoles a year than MS. Just as they did last generation.
You people keep ignoring real data. On purpose. Don’t know what kind of drastic change some of youl are expecting this generation.
Good for you though.
IntentionalPun
Ask me about my wife's perfect butthole
I was aggressive on Sony being higher than 2:1... we honestly don't know WTF the story would be w/o supply constraints, and we don't really know the long term success of Series S.
W/ no supply constraints the gap could be larger.. or closer.. nobody really knows.. but reality is this gen started more supply constrained than ever (w/ demand higher than ever clearly.)
But also that's great if MS catches up; I don't want Sony to be 3:1.. that's shit for the industry IMO, especially since Sony has been doing sort of dick-wagging moves again.
W/ no supply constraints the gap could be larger.. or closer.. nobody really knows.. but reality is this gen started more supply constrained than ever (w/ demand higher than ever clearly.)
But also that's great if MS catches up; I don't want Sony to be 3:1.. that's shit for the industry IMO, especially since Sony has been doing sort of dick-wagging moves again.
Last edited:
Neofire
Member
I agree it could be much better but considering the reason it's not bad at all. If we go by the Xbox Series numbers then theirs much be abysmal at a little over 12 million sold and that's with the VGchartz generous numbers. Given context, things aren't nowhere near bad for Sony........yet lol.
tmlDan
Member
he seems biased but I am not always sure, i always look for backup info or a source before believing it.
Tiago Rodrigues
Member
I mean...if anything, the gap will start to get bigger if Sony can actually produce 18M units for the next year.
cormack12
Gold Member
I have been known to squeeze into medium durex when the large is not available. Like wearing a baby sock.
PropellerEar
Member
Chukhopops
Member
Deeply ironic when so many posts are overconfident guesses on what-if scenarios where there’s no chip shortage and pandemic.
The only real data is that PS5 is trending behind the PS4, the Wii, the Switch and the 3DS launch aligned and that the Series consoles are outselling their previous generations, again launch aligned. The rest is speculation.
cormack12
Gold Member
We used to do that. Looked like three buzz lightyears running round the council fields.
Bernd Lauert
Banned
The people who are really expecting the last generation to repeat itself are in for a rude awakening
PropellerEar
Member
Power your dreams.The people who are really expecting the last generation to repeat itself are in for a rude awakening
Yes, the Xbox One crossed 50 million with an underpowered machine and very few must have exclusives. That's impressive and shows that the Xbox brand is stronger then a lot on here believe. Use your head, it's not hard to see why Xbox is going to have a lot more success this gen than last.
kyliethicc
Member
Heard through the grapevine Jimbo’s chuffed rn. Might buy Mario
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Yeah....corrected that for you.
Now was it a brilliant move for Xbox gamers? We'll see.
Shizumapower
Member
I still have not seen a PS5 on the shelf since launch day.
The only people being desperate are the ones ignoring what's happening in front of their eyes. The real data is that Xbox is closing the sales gap/gaining market share and is only going to continue its momentum throughout the gen unlike with the Xbox One, cus you know, they actually have a compelling product this gen with a large number of exclusives.
Last edited:
cormack12
Gold Member
People think I have two legs. I have one and a penis with a shoe on the end.Liar
Last edited:
Hezekiah
Banned
I dont expect PS6 and the next Xbox to have disc drives.
Yea, I'm not sure why people are being so defensive, no one is saying that the PS5 isn't going to do well, just that the Series X and S are going to do much better than the Xbox One. Anyone paying attention and not lying to themselves can see that.The people who are really expecting the last generation to repeat itself are in for a rude awakening
Last edited:
TheGodfather07
Member
Looks like supply will increase and PS5 will really start to take off. 14.5m first party software in just one quarter aswell. This is gonna be another great gen for sony.
yazenov
Member
The people who are really expecting the last generation to repeat itself are in for a rude awakening
Alright, I'll bite.
what are you expecting? 2:1 ? or much closer?
Last edited:
Leyasu
Banned
Yeah I think you might be right. I would've bought a discless series X had microsoft made one. As it is, the disc drive on my XsX serves zero purpose
Last edited:
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Gold Member
Xbox is doing better this gen vs. last, that much is true, but PS5 has also had a stronger start in terms of software library & sales compared to PS4. If Sony were able to meet their original shipment forecasts for FY21, those units would have been sold and demand would still probably not have been even halfway met.
So while the gap is closing, at least for the time being that is partly on a technicality, although I think both Xbox and PlayStation have a lot of demand. Some of it is very region-specific however; in Asia as a whole and most of the ROTW Xbox demand is still relatively low compared to Sony and Nintendo, and I don't see that changing for a long time. If there's any one market Xbox can near-guarantee they can lead Sony and Nintendo in (so long as they don't have some big snafu), it's NA. Which thankfully for them, in isolation WRT console gaming, is generally the largest single market.
Even there, though, I expect market share between the three to remain pretty close. Picture something like SNES vs Genesis but with three systems vs two. That said I'd always expect PS5 to maintain an install base advantage simply due to being the more popular global brand outside of NA and UK, same with Nintendo. And besides that, it's obvious with MS and even Sony that install base in itself isn't so much the big factor so much as division revenue is, and there are a multitude of ways to achieve that. MS's strategy is focusing on buying large publishers and combining their revenue with Xbox's (meaning a majority of those games will have to remain multiplatform); Sony's seems more focused on having a selection of live-service games to generate recurrent revenue and looking for ways to add more value to a large core portion of their customer base that can hopefully justify additional pricing tiers they'll move up to (and boost revenue that way) while holding on as main platform for the majority of 3P support and audiences.
Last edited:
Zeroing
Banned
kyliethicc
Member
Gonna put Knack in SmashObjection HEARSAY!
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
OMG!!! Yall are using GAF members for that 3:1 ratio prediction? LOL!!! I thought you were talking about real video game journalists. Who cares about we predict?
IntentionalPun
Ask me about my wife's perfect butthole
The writing was on the wall that Playstation wouldn't beat 2020 earnings.
In 2020 they had months to stock up for the PS5 launch, Sony beat MS to the punch outproducing them quite handily that year.
They then sold a huge chunk of PS5's right at launch. They probably sodl 3 times as many PS5s in Q4(calendar) of 2020, then they did any other quarter since.
I've been warning people since December that their earnings would be flat-ish or lower than the previous year. It's just naturally what is going to happen when you stock up on a product for it's launch then have production issues.
PS is also so big that growth is that much harder in the first place compared to competition.
Honestly all the big 3 are doing pretty amazing from a consumer standpoint. Wall Street wants to see numbers go up though.
In 2020 they had months to stock up for the PS5 launch, Sony beat MS to the punch outproducing them quite handily that year.
They then sold a huge chunk of PS5's right at launch. They probably sodl 3 times as many PS5s in Q4(calendar) of 2020, then they did any other quarter since.
I've been warning people since December that their earnings would be flat-ish or lower than the previous year. It's just naturally what is going to happen when you stock up on a product for it's launch then have production issues.
PS is also so big that growth is that much harder in the first place compared to competition.
Honestly all the big 3 are doing pretty amazing from a consumer standpoint. Wall Street wants to see numbers go up though.
Last edited:
Let's remember that many of those same people who say PS5 will sell 3:1 vs XS, are the same ones who talk about the danger of XBOX monopoly with the purchase of publishers.....
I have no idea how both thing can be compatible. With that statement, they are stating that PS5 will sell much better than PS4 and at the same time that XS will sell worse than XBO.... Otherwise a 3:1 is impossible.
I have no idea how much PS5 vs XS will sell this generation. What I am clear about is that the generation for Xbox users has never been so promising in terms of exclusive catalog and general catalog. And that when the exclusive games arrive (as much as some still want to believe that the 30+ XboxStudios will not release a game or that they will all be canceled
), it is too reckless to think that they will not have an effect on sales and make XS appealing for users who the previous generation turned their backs on XBO. As you say, no one is talking about PS5 not going to be a great commercial success, we are talking about denying the possibility of XS having a more successful generation than XBO. It is, simply, more wishing that it doesn't happen than true belief that it won't. can happen
yurinka
Member
Around $7B or less.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
The point that some here don't want to see.
Bernd Lauert
Banned
1.5:1 at best.
Goalus
Member
Agreed.
nominedomine
Banned
Sony wasn't 2:1 against the Xbox One for a long time. People have this false memory that the Xbox One started slow, the Xbox One started pretty well in terms of sales even with the terrible value.
Who knows what will happen as the generations progresses. The Xbox One could keep up with the PS4 pace, maybe the Series S/X will be able too but probably it won't with their focus changing to things like xCloud and Xbox everywhere else.
The Series S/X has a big advantage early in the gen due to a cheaper and easier to produce console. The best time for the Series S will be early in the gen during this crossgen period.
Last edited:
IntentionalPun
Ask me about my wife's perfect butthole
For sure; it didn't start that way at all.
Last gen was the gen where we did see a huge increase in console production.. Xbox One easily out-launched Xbox 360 in part because MS was producing several times the units they did in the 360 generation... and Xbox continues to have 10's of millions of fans who are very likely to "buy the next Xbox" regardless of popularity outside of them. They just didn't really push much beyond that... and Sony, did.. and continued to do so (really CONTINUES to do so.)
And in the end these "hardware numbers" once you get above certain point aren't as reliable of a predictor of revenue increase. You have more and more people buying their 2nd or 3rd console, who don't represent "new software sales" and you have more and more casuals jumping in at a lower price who aren't buying all the new games at full price either.
Last edited:
People do forget that the Xbox started pretty well and had some decent exclusives, but as the gen went on and the exclusives dried up so did the Xbox One sales. That obviously won't be a problem this gen.
I'd say the best time for the Series S will be later in the gen when people can easily get it for $199 or potentially even less. Phil always said that they expected the majority of early sales to be the Series X and then throughout the gen the S would take over. The chip shortage kind of messed that thinking up since the Series S is probably around even with the X right now or maybe even ahead, but still, price drops and bundles are going to be a big boon for the Series S later in the gen. The S will also be perfect for PS5 owners who want a cheap way to experience Game Pass and all the Xbox exclusives.
Last edited:
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Gold Member
Apparently in a business call with shareholders, the CFO was outright asked about Sony going with a GamePass model and the CFO said that a deterioration of quality would happen due to less funds.
Whether that was a shot at GP or not (I don't think it was) is besides the point. Because I think the point Sony's CFO was trying to convey there is that, when it comes to entertainment in particular, there is a LOT of market volatility, even more so when services are involved, because the end customer can just up and drop their subscription if the content they want isn't there. We're seeing that happen already with services like Netflix; the reason why it'd be problematic for a company like Sony to adopt that type of GP model is because with that amount of volatility, you could never count on a specific number of sustained subscribers over the long-term, which probably would make budget planning very difficult.
At this point you can't even realistically account or speculate on what audience size you would have in translation of customers into the subscription service or how big that market could get, because we don't even know what size the market for GP-style subscription services in gaming actually is. However, it's likely they're taking into what appears to be the size limit of film/tv streaming services like Netflix and maybe they're seeing that if the market there has a finite cap that might be nearing full saturation, if even that number may not be enough (based on internal calculations) to sustain budgets for the type and number of AAA Sony produce as well as cover operating costs of producing hardware & maintaining employee counts, benefits, bonuses etc., then they may have a point.
It's not like Microsoft, who also have subscription services in non-entertainment markets like business, enterprise, medical & military, and therefore have Azure, Office etc. in industries with very low volatility & very high subscription retention rates (since the customers are literal businesses, they're not going to suddenly "cancel" for a month here or there or they risk tanking their business altogether. They also probably go for long-term contracts to get some type of discount pricing, if possible). So there being high volatility in subscription rates/stability or revenue flow per user in the gaming market when it comes to subscriptions, wouldn't impact Microsoft's bottom line nearly as much as would Sony's.
Try keeping that in mind next time someone tries saying Sony should put all 1P games Day 1 into a service.
Series S also has a smaller (and simpler) PCB/motherboard, probably less I/O ports (maybe one less USB port at very least), much simpler cooling solution (smaller heatpipe, smaller & lower RPM fan, smaller PSU requiring less power), and smaller overall physical footprint meaning smaller size meaning less material for shell casing.
I wouldn't go as far to say they're making a profit or Series S or even breaking even, but they're probably in a spot where maybe just one game purchase or a couple months' worth of GP would be either break even or a very small profit.
Whether that was a shot at GP or not (I don't think it was) is besides the point. Because I think the point Sony's CFO was trying to convey there is that, when it comes to entertainment in particular, there is a LOT of market volatility, even more so when services are involved, because the end customer can just up and drop their subscription if the content they want isn't there. We're seeing that happen already with services like Netflix; the reason why it'd be problematic for a company like Sony to adopt that type of GP model is because with that amount of volatility, you could never count on a specific number of sustained subscribers over the long-term, which probably would make budget planning very difficult.
At this point you can't even realistically account or speculate on what audience size you would have in translation of customers into the subscription service or how big that market could get, because we don't even know what size the market for GP-style subscription services in gaming actually is. However, it's likely they're taking into what appears to be the size limit of film/tv streaming services like Netflix and maybe they're seeing that if the market there has a finite cap that might be nearing full saturation, if even that number may not be enough (based on internal calculations) to sustain budgets for the type and number of AAA Sony produce as well as cover operating costs of producing hardware & maintaining employee counts, benefits, bonuses etc., then they may have a point.
It's not like Microsoft, who also have subscription services in non-entertainment markets like business, enterprise, medical & military, and therefore have Azure, Office etc. in industries with very low volatility & very high subscription retention rates (since the customers are literal businesses, they're not going to suddenly "cancel" for a month here or there or they risk tanking their business altogether. They also probably go for long-term contracts to get some type of discount pricing, if possible). So there being high volatility in subscription rates/stability or revenue flow per user in the gaming market when it comes to subscriptions, wouldn't impact Microsoft's bottom line nearly as much as would Sony's.
Try keeping that in mind next time someone tries saying Sony should put all 1P games Day 1 into a service.
Series S also has a smaller (and simpler) PCB/motherboard, probably less I/O ports (maybe one less USB port at very least), much simpler cooling solution (smaller heatpipe, smaller & lower RPM fan, smaller PSU requiring less power), and smaller overall physical footprint meaning smaller size meaning less material for shell casing.
I wouldn't go as far to say they're making a profit or Series S or even breaking even, but they're probably in a spot where maybe just one game purchase or a couple months' worth of GP would be either break even or a very small profit.
Last edited:
nominedomine
Banned
Makes no sense to me, people will be buying a 4TF years from now? I don't see how a Series S for $199 is more appealing than a $299. The Series S clearly appeals to less people than the Series X already.
If Sony can get the PS5 DE to $299 down the line once the demand has been normalized, I don't think they need to worry about the Series S eating into their market share. $299 is accessible enough to most people interested in playing traditional games. Is anyone that is interested in the Series S not buying one because they are waiting for it to become cheaper?
Will MS keep the Series S in the market if the Series X gets a mid gen upgrade like the Xbox One and PS4 got last gen?
Last edited:
Of course people will be buying the Series S throughout the gen. Casuals don't care or even know about 4TF vs 10TF or 12TF, all they care about is being able to play Starfield, Elder Scrolls, Fable, Avowed etc... A $199 Series S can be more appealing that a $299 PS5(If it can even get that low) because it's cheap and offers vastly different services and exclusives.
nominedomine
Banned
I really don't see it happening but good luck to them. The Series S is in stock everywhere, what are people waiting for to get one? Does $100 makes that much of a difference to justify waiting possibly years?
What I could see are Series S owners upgrading to the Series X.
Last edited:
Lognor
Banned
"We'll see"Yeah....corrected that for you.
Now was it a brilliant move for Xbox gamers? We'll see.
How many more years do we need to wait to see? We're one and a half years into the gen. Just keep saying that I guess.
The answer to both questions is an obvious yes and yes. Of course price is a big factor, and I'm not sure why this is getting ignored by everyone all of a sudden ,but games are a massive factor too. MS has started this gen pretty slowly again in regards to must have exclusives, but that's about to change. Starting this Summer/Fall they should have a steady flow of big exclusives that continues throughout the gen, and those are obviously going to be a big factor in selling consoles.
The Series S isn't going to just disappear, millions of people already own it and it's going to be supported throughout the gen. Why would they ditch a console that can target a much broader audience than a premium console can? It's going to e very hard for Sony and MS to bring down the prices of the Series X and PS5.
nominedomine
Banned
A console having games is what's expected, I don't get how that changes the trajectory of the Series S. $500 is hardly premium when you consider it lasts about 8 years and new games cost $60/$70.
Last edited:
Yes, and those specific games are what sells consoles, so when they release they'll push consoles. That's literally how it as always been. People don't just buy products just because they're on the shelves.... Why did the PS3 and PS4 keep on selling millions for years after release? Couldn't everyone who wanted one have picked one up in the first couple years? I don't recall them being in short stock for years and years.
Last edited:
nominedomine
Banned
PS3 and PS4 were regular consoles, not a cutdown version of a flagship console, as of right now we have no reference for something like the Series S.
You speak as if MS hasn't released anything but they released a new Halo and a new Forza Horizon last year, two of their biggest exclusive IPs. What MS exclusive IP is bigger than those? Not that many.
Last edited:
Bernd Lauert
Banned
A 0.4 TF console outsold both PS5 and Series combined last year. Just saying.
Similar threads
- Locked