more and more on the weekly download and not the full binge watchable series
Disney realised the two key things there (which it isn't a surprise, cable companies basically didn't have to do this cause they signed you upto long term contracts and they had other things like sports that was inherently weekly), it keeps users retained longer yes and that it generates more free media. I don't think the shift to weekly drops is related to padding as I think you could have just as much of a padded tv show on Netflix.
Netflix, Prime, Disney+ are slowly taking more and more revenue out of theatres: what do they produce?
I don't know how you break out the multiple factors that have impacted box office revenue like general audience behaviour change to a more digital world and importantly covid. I would need to double check but box office was growing prior to the pandemic. Post pandemic, the issue has been that movie watchers only go out to watch big blockbuster experiences or horror films.
I also would argue that TV has just grown in popularity relative to general movie watching but there is an obvious chicken and egg situation here.
On the wider topic, GP will inherently affect gameplay design as would any distribution method. I don't know if you can summarise it as a simple as a pro/con or even say that games will get padded. Ultimately consumers will still be the deciders.