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[onQ123]

Stunned and confused that it outsold Mario, must be all that tie in.

Impressive result.

That being said, will need extremely high results in Q3 and Q4 in order to get that 25 million. Just not looking likely at this point.

Actually if you look at how they are selling over a million more than they did last year in each quarter if things continue this way they will land right at 25 million.


8.2 sold so far so if they move 9m this quarter vs 7.1m last year & 8m in the final quarter vs 6.3 last year that would be 25m

 

[kazuyamishima]

Last quarter was up 50% without a heavy hitter like SM2

50% above last year’s Q3 is 10.5M

Again, not a stretch to reach 12M with bundles and SM2 this quarter…

It’s also very very possible that the new model will be launched Q4 FY2023 in Europe and ROTW.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Last quarter was up 50% without a heavy hitter like SM2

50% above last year’s Q3 is 10.5M

Again, not a stretch to reach 12M with bundles and SM2 this quarter…

Q2 22 was still supply-strained... which is why Q3 is so heavy. It's a massive stretch to think that after the flood gates opened, Sony would add 5m on top of that from the previous fiscal year only on the strength of Spider-Man and a new sku that has mixed reception and an increased price for the digital model.

I guess anything is possible, but I think it's pretty poor analysis to assume it'll hit that amount.

 

[ShaiKhulud1989]

I wouldn't say it is impossible, but seems unlikely that they will hit that target.

Dirung the call they've said that PS5 is on track and the forecast still stands. New inventory (Slim)+bundles is the driver.

 

[DavidGzz]

I think that GTA VI could be what helps them reach their goal. You'd be surprised how many will buy a system just on hype alone. All they need to do is see that PS5 symbol at the end of the trailer plus the fact that most console gamers will see it as the main platform. New model, GTA hype+Holidays equals a lot of hardware sales.

 

[MrTired]

Last quarter was up 50% without a heavy hitter like SM2

50% above last year’s Q3 is 10.5M

Again, not a stretch to reach 12M with bundles and SM2 this quarter…

As Mibu no ookami has mentioned the reason for the huge Q4 last FY was because of the shortages in Q3. In my opinion it going to be difficult for them to reach 25 million.

 

[[Sigma]]

5 million for Spidey 2. Not bad for a PS5 only game.

 

[MrTired]

Dirung the call they've said that PS5 is on track and the forecast still stands. New inventory (Slim)+bundles is the driver.

If they hit the forecast I'll be mightily impressed.

 

[Mr.Phoenix]

The PS4s best year was 20 million, and PS5 is currently only tracking about 1 million ahead of that.
I don't think even the PS2 did 25 million in a year.
I wouldn't say it is impossible, but seems unlikely that they will hit that target.

Better compare it with the PS5s best year...not the PS4. Different times, different prices, different buying habits and dynamics....etc.

So, PS5's best year was 19.1M, and the PS5 is currently tracking 2.5M ahead.

And this thing about how other generations didn't do this or that, if you only do as well as your predecessors, records would never be broken.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Q2 22 was still supply-strained... which is why Q3 is so heavy. It's a massive stretch to think that after the flood gates opened, Sony would add 5m on top of that from the previous fiscal year only on the strength of Spider-Man and a new sku that has mixed reception and an increased price for the digital model.

I guess anything is possible, but I think it's pretty poor analysis to assume it'll hit that amount.

Q3 22 was also massively supply constrained, so that’s not an issue with my comparison

It’ll get a 50% bump YoY due to supply alone

And another 1.5M due to SM2 and bundles

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Reaffirmed that there is not much confidence in Eric Lempel as the next CEO of SIE.

Too important of a position to just hand over to him.

 

[Mr.Phoenix]

It's a massive stretch to think that after the flood gates opened, Sony would add 5m on top of that from the previous fiscal year only on the strength of Spider-Man and a new sku that has mixed reception and an increased price for the digital model.

I guess anything is possible, but I think it's pretty poor analysis to assume it'll hit that amount.

No man... you are blind to some obvious things.

• Not ONLY Spiderman, but there is a COD too. there are literally two PS5 bundles this holiday season, of two of the biggest IPs of the year.
• The increased price of the digital model? so we just gonna ignore that you can get the COD or SM2 bundles (even the new sku) for $499? That's as close to a price drop as we have ever seen so far for the PS5.
• and what mixed reception, a new PS5 will sell just fine, you would be remiss to think otherwise if you are going off the outta touch nonsense we say here on GAF or click baity gaming media.

 

[Sakura]

Dirung the call they've said that PS5 is on track and the forecast still stands. New inventory (Slim)+bundles is the driver.

Sure, but it's not like companies don't miss their forecasts. iirc Sony missed their FY2021 forecast for the PS5, and didn't mention that they would miss it until the Q3 earnings call. (correct me if I'm wrong).

 

[Mibu no ookami]

No man... you are blind to some obvious things.

• Not ONLY Spiderman, but there is a COD too. there are literally two PS5 bundles this holiday season, of two of the biggest IPs of the year.
• The increased price of the digital model? so we just gonna ignore that you can get the COD or SM2 bundles (even the new sku) for $499? That's as close to a price drop as we have ever seen so far for the PS5.
• and what mixed reception, a new PS5 will sell just fine, you would be remiss to think otherwise if you are going off the outta touch nonsense we say here on GAF or click baity gaming media.

• There was CoD last year too... it was the best-selling game of the year...
• We have no idea how long those discounts will last, but the point is that the new model itself isn't going to spur on much sales since the offset for the digital model would counteract said discounts. It's at best a push, with the biggest variable actually being availability.
• Just saying that day-to-day people don't care about the new model it has no tangible benefits for the day-to-day consumer.

There is no sound analysis that puts PS5 at 12 million in Q3.

It's possible that word of mouth will spread on Spider-Man 2 like wildfire in the school playgrounds pushing this to levels not currently seen, but there's no actual evidence of that as of yet.

It's actually tracking below God of War Ragnarok (which again was available on PS4) but for it to sell significantly more units than Ragnarok did, it should be tracking in line with or ahead of it and that isn't happening.

I'd be impressed if the PS5 can reach 9.5 million let alone 12 million.

 

[Woopah]

Very strong results, particularly on hardware, and they've increased the revenue forecast.

I don't think they hit 25, but 23-24 is very doable given what we know.

Stunned and confused that it outsold Mario, must be all that tie in.

Impressive result.

That being said, will need extremely high results in Q3 and Q4 in order to get that 25 million. Just not looking likely at this point.

Mario's numbers were sell through, and I believe these are shipped. So they probably did the same.

Edit: Above was wrong.

·(ー) Impact of changes in the launch dates of a portion of first-party titles

Sony has confirmed that titles scheduled for FY23 have been pushed out. Think we're almost certainly looking at TLOU Online and maybe Twisted Metal.

Destiny 2 The Final Shape and Stellar Blade are the two most likely candidates. TLOU Online is also a strong candidate. Twisted Metal probably wasn't meant for this FY since the game had to switch studios a while back, so they probably knew it wasn't going to land around the time of the TV show just because of that.

There's Helldivers 2 as well.

It’s also very very possible that the new model will be launched Q4 FY2023 in Europe and ROTW.

Are we expecting the model to meaningfully drive hardware sales? The only benefit is thar its smaller right?

 

[prinz_valium]

they don't have to. All they have to do is have a really good Q3. If they can hit 11-12M units, which should be doable with both Spiderman + COD bundles + PS5 refresh, then all they need in Q4 is around 4M.

And I still expect price drops.

But they won't and cant even ship 12m.
No capacity for that

Neither shipping, nor retailer / warehouse

 

[StealthGoblin]

Great results.

It's clear there are some kinks in their software pipeline at the moment, but I think the initial pain will be worth it. Especially with the expansion into PC and Mobile.

 

[Ozriel]

Destiny 2 The Final Shape and Stellar Blade are the two most likely candidates.

Stellar Blade isn’t first party, so it’s probably The Final Shape

Last quarter was up 50% without a heavy hitter like SM2

50% above last year’s Q3 is 10.5M

Again, not a stretch to reach 12M with bundles and SM2 this quarter…

Also the PS5 Slim. People like new hardware.
The MW3 bundle should do crazy numbers in the US and EU.

 

[DenchDeckard]

Sony are in full beast mode. I doubt they hit the 25 mill but they will get close.

400 pound ps5s in the UK with cod mw3 or spider man. The thing is flying.
Great price, great sales. Gonna have a crazy peak.

 

[midnightAI]

Q3 22 was also massively supply constrained, so that’s not an issue with my comparison

It’ll get a 50% bump YoY due to supply alone

And another 1.5M due to SM2 and bundles

Also new slim model (some will double dip due to that)

(And of course, my dream of a December showcase, look, I can dream ok)

 

[Thick Thighs Save Lives]

Some highlights via ChaosSlayerFrom from the other forum:

This is SIE's biggest Second Quarter BY FAR in Revenue, competing with Q3s, the most lucrative Quarter.

• Top 5 Q2 in terms of Revenue:
  1. PlayStation Q2 FY23
  2. PlayStation Q2 FY22
  3. PlayStation Q2 FY21
  4. PlayStation Q4 FY18
  5. PlayStation Q4 FY20

- Operating Income and Margins suffering due to high costs: 6th Highest recorded Operating Income in FYQ2.

• Top 6 Q2 in terms of OI:
  1. PlayStation Q2 FY20
  2. PlayStation Q2 FY18
  3. PlayStation Q2 FY21
  4. PlayStation Q2 FY19
  5. PlayStation Q2 FY17
  6. PlayStation Q2 FY23

Hardware:

- Sony shipped 4.9m PS5s in Q2 FY23:

• Significant YoY growth: 48.48% YoY Vs 3.3m units in Q2 FY22.
• Significant QoQ growth: 48.48% QoQ Vs 3.3m units in Q1 FY23

- Record-breaking console shipments in Q2 for SIE. (Highest amount of consoles shipped in Fiscal Year Q2 by SIE to my knowledge)!
- As it stands, Sony shipped 8.2m PS5s in the current FY, which accounts for roughly 33% of their FY target (25m PS5s shipped)
- 46.6m PS5s shipped since launch Vs 47.4m PS4s in the same timeframe. Launch aligned, PS5 is currently lagging behind PS4 by 0.8m Units.

Software:

67.6m Full PS4/PS5 Games sold in Q2 FY23.

• 8.16% YoY increase: Up from 62.5m in Q2 FY22.
• 19.65% QoQ increase: Up from 56.5m in Q1 FY23.
• Digital accounted for 67% of Full Games Sales in Q2 FY23, comparable to previous quarters flat slightly up from 63% YoY and slightly down from 72% QoQ.
• 4.7mFirst-Party Games sold:
  • Significant 28.78% YoY and QoQ decrease: Down from 6.6m in Q2 FY22/Q1 FY23. This is due to the lack of new First-Party releases during the quarter.
  • First-party games account for 6.95% of the Total Full Games sold in Q2 FY23, which is the lowest ratio of First-Party games since Sony started reporting the figure.

 

[MrTired]

Very strong results, particularly on hardware, and they've increased the revenue forecast.

I don't think they hit 25, but 23-24 is very doable given what we know.

Mario's numbers were sell through, and I believe these are shipped. So they probably did the same.


There's Helldivers 2 as well.

Are we expecting the model to meaningfully drive hardware sales? The only benefit is thar its smaller right?

Nope Spiderman 2 reported numbers are sold through figures.

 

[Thick Thighs Save Lives]

Very strong results, particularly on hardware, and they've increased the revenue forecast.

I don't think they hit 25, but 23-24 is very doable given what we know.

Mario's numbers were sell through, and I believe these are shipped. So they probably did the same.


There's Helldivers 2 as well.

Are we expecting the model to meaningfully drive hardware sales? The only benefit is thar its smaller right?

They are sold through figures.

 

[Woopah]

Nope Spiderman 2 reported numbers are sold through figures.

They are sold through figures.

Thanks! I've updated my post.

 

[MrA]

Better compare it with the PS5s best year...not the PS4. Different times, different prices, different buying habits and dynamics....etc.

So, PS5's best year was 19.1M, and the PS5 is currently tracking 2.5M ahead.

And this thing about how other generations didn't do this or that, if you only do as well as your predecessors, records would never be broken.

Actually if you look at how they are selling over a million more than they did last year in each quarter if things continue this way they will land right at 25 million.


8.2 sold so far so if they move 9m this quarter vs 7.1m last year & 8m in the final quarter vs 6.3 last year that would be 25m

Q4 won't be up this year, q4 was a burn off of 2 years of pent up demand, unless sony has something amazing it will be down by around 50% yoy (ps4 q4s were always around 2.5 million and the equivalent q4 was 2.9)
A 12 million q4 would put ps5 ahead of switch's 2020, Its possible, but not terribly probable
They'll probably hits 22 to 23 million this year, they got to hyped off of q4
Which still puts it in best year ever for playstation territory
Otherwise spidey falling behind gow r is a bit surprising but near holiday launched tend to be less front loaded so spiderman will probably have stronger first quarter

 

[Elios83]

Great results, some people were expecting Spiderman 2 to have sold less than Mario and yet....lol.

Hardware numbers are also really strong but the 25m target is probably a couple of millions too high.They need to sell 12m units in Q3 and 4.8m in Q4. Not impossible but unless they continue the holiday promotions in the Jan-March quarter bundling FFVII Rebirth it won't be easy. Still the sales they're enjoying are super strong.

 

[ArcaneNLSC]

 

[Gameplay Gods Bless]

You can do whatever you want. But it’s not that far fetched given the bundles with their most popular IP

Anywho, they only had a final Fantasy last quarter and did 4.9M

Having “only” FF7R in their second biggest quarter is probably good enough for 6M, most people will continue buying it for SM2 either way

Bet your account if you're confident, doit. He's doing it, don't out!

 

[Gameplay Gods Bless]

I think it all hinges on how well they do this Q3.

Spiderman and COD bundles could go a really long way. If they hit 12M, then they only need 4M from Q4, anything above 12M is a bonus.

Man I guess that means this year is the last year Sony gets the boost from COD bundles. Kinda crazy to see something like that go.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

I don't even like Slider Man 2 and am impressed.

 

[Elios83]

 

[Ronin_7]

Inventory

Damn they're sitting on a ton of PlayStation stuff.

This Holiday should be their most aggressive yet.

 

[ArcaneNLSC]

Damn they're sitting on a ton of PlayStation stuff.

This Holiday should be their most aggressive yet.

they are going to go.....

this holiday

 

[VitoNotVito]

The king is back (it was never gone).

 

[yurinka]

Great performance as usual

 

[Luminoth-4545]

I think 25 million units for the fiscal year is unlikely, I'm expecting 22.5m to 23m which would still be a decent increase over PS4's peak fiscal year of 20 million and it would be the highest yearly revenue for console hardware ever. I just think 16.8 million for Q3+Q4 is a bit too much for such an expensive console, this number has only ever been achieved by the DS and at the time it was only $130 ($185 adjusted for inflation).

Top 5 Highest ever Q3 + Q4

FY 08/09 DS : 11.89m + 5.56m = 17.45m
FY 07/08 DS : 11.15m + 5.81m = 16.96m
FY 20/21 NSW : 11.57m + 4.72m = 16.29m
FY 08/09 Wii : 10.41m + 5.44m = 15.85m
FY 09/10 DS : 11.65m + 3.76m = 15.41m

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

I don't see 25m happening.

 

[Mowcno]

If they are to hit their 25m target they are basically going to need to beat Switch peak holiday, or come very close. I don't see Q4 bring as high as last year as that was boosted by the massive stock problems in quarters prior. Q4 last fiscal year was the quarter they shipped tons to finally fix the supply issues.

They're going to need 11-12m shipped in the holiday quarter I feel.

Switch best holiday was 11.6m, DS record is 11.9m. Not sure PS5 can reach quite that high but next quarter should be very tasty indeed.


11.5m holiday and 5.3m Q4 seems the most likely split to hit the target to me
But even then I think they'd be overshipping in Q4 and it'll hurt their Q1 results next fiscal year again like the Q1 was hurt this year.


Regardless of if they hit 25m or not PS5 is going to have the highest shipments in a year for any PlayStation ever. That much is locked.

 

[Ronin_7]

I don't see 25m happening.

It's hard sure.

 

[Three]

Hardware is up 49% YoY and 49% QoQ,
Game and network services up 32% YoY too.

I've got to say I'm impressed, I would have thought they would be down.

 

[Mr.Phoenix]

• There was CoD last year too... it was the best-selling game of the year...
• We have no idea how long those discounts will last, but the point is that the new model itself isn't going to spur on much sales since the offset for the digital model would counteract said discounts. It's at best a push, with the biggest variable actually being availability.
• Just saying that day-to-day people don't care about the new model it has no tangible benefits for the day-to-day consumer.

There is no sound analysis that puts PS5 at 12 million in Q3.

It's possible that word of mouth will spread on Spider-Man 2 like wildfire in the school playgrounds pushing this to levels not currently seen, but there's no actual evidence of that as of yet.

It's actually tracking below God of War Ragnarok (which again was available on PS4) but for it to sell significantly more units than Ragnarok did, it should be tracking in line with or ahead of it and that isn't happening.

I'd be impressed if the PS5 can reach 9.5 million let alone 12 million.

Sound arguments. Just to be clear, I am not saying they WILL hit 25M, I am saying I believe is possible. But the only way I see it happening is that they hit 12M this Q3. If they fall short of that mark, I don't see them doing 25M either. If they do only 9-10M this quarter, I don't even see them getting to 23M for the year if that's the case.

Wasn't there some leak about how many PS5 "slims" Sony planned to ship for the fiscal year?

 

[Three]

Stellar Blade isn’t first party, so it’s probably The Final Shape



Also the PS5 Slim. People like new hardware.
The MW3 bundle should do crazy numbers in the US and EU.

Stellar blade is published by Sony and is therefore a first party title.

 

[nial]

Stellar Blade isn’t first party, so it’s probably The Final Shape

Stellar Blade is published by Sony.

 

[Luminoth-4545]

I, of course, don't know about your estimation method, so I'm not questioning it.

But according to my estimates, XBS is nowhere close to ~25M.

• XBS was estimated to be at ~18.5 million by Dec 2022.
• It sold roughly ~8.5 million in 2022 (Jan-Dec), so approximately 0.7M per month.
• And has been down since then in 2023 YoY.
• ~25M would mean XBS has already sold ~6.5 million in 9 months, or 0.72 per month - which we know can't be the case as XBS is approx. ~20% down YoY.

I base it off welfare's revenue chart on InstallBase, he actually has XBS higher at 25.8 million. The only official numbers we know (due to Microsoft document leaks) are that XBS shipped 4.6 million in Q3+Q4 FY 20/21 and 7.8 million in Q2+Q3+Q4 FY 21/22. Also these are estimates for shipments not sell-through, shipments are usually 2 million or so higher than sell-through.

 

[Physiognomonics]

• Significant 28.78% YoY and QoQ decrease: Down from 6.6m in Q2 FY22/Q1 FY23. This is due to the lack of new First-Party releases during the quarter.
• First-party games account for 6.95% of the Total Full Games sold in Q2 FY23, which is the lowest ratio of First-Party games since Sony started reporting the figure.

What's happening here? Record low number of first party games sold since they record those numbers? Even their game sales is overall lower than what they did in Q2 2019. I thought their PC ports combined with subcription services was a great combo strategy? I mean, they are highly cannibalizing their sales, even multiplat sales, with their services strategy.

Also their margins are super low compared to the PS4 end of era. Services give their less profits than traditionnal sales?

 

[bitbydeath]

But they won't and cant even ship 12m.
No capacity for that

Neither shipping, nor retailer / warehouse

Sony are keeping to the 25M forecast, which says they have no problem shipping it. It’ll all come down to sales.

 

[Ozriel]

Stellar blade is published by Sony and is therefore a first party title.

Stellar Blade is published by Sony.

I’m aware. Thought we’ve always used that term for games made by first party teams or owned IP like Demon Souls or Bloodborne, but you’re probably right, since it definitely won’t be third party.

 

[Sanepar]

I base it off welfare's revenue chart on InstallBase, he actually has XBS higher at 25.8 million. The only official numbers we know (due to Microsoft document leaks) are that XBS sold 4.6 million in Q3+Q4 FY 20/21 and 7.8 million in Q2+Q3+Q4 FY 21/22.

Wellfare is a Xbox fanboy and we know for a fact that xbox hardware sales is 25-30% low this year compared to 22.

I would say xbox at best scneario is around 22.5mi

 

[Three]

What's happening here? Record low number of first party games sold since they record those numbers? Even their game sales is overall lower than what they did in Q2 2019. I thought their PC ports combined with subcription services was a great combo strategy? I mean, they are highly cannibalizing their sales, even multiplat sales, with their services strategy.

Also their margins are super low compared to the PS4 end of era. Services give their less profits than traditionnal sales?

It's a first party ratio and not sales. It could mean higher third party performance even though first party is selling more than previous years.

Edit: oh you're looking at the blue bar. Sorry.

 

[Luminoth-4545]

The PS4s best year was 20 million, and PS5 is currently only tracking about 1 million ahead of that.
I don't think even the PS2 did 25 million in a year.
I wouldn't say it is impossible, but seems unlikely that they will hit that target.

Correct. The PS2's highest fiscal year was 22.52 million, PS1's 21.60 million, PS3's 14.30 million and PSP's 14.10 million. This illustrates what an incredibly high target 25 million in a single FY is, i don't think some people realize how difficult of a task this is.