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Sony Q2: PS5 4.9 m; Spider-Man 2 5.0 m

Wellfare is a Xbox fanboy and we know for a fact that xbox hardware sales is 25-30% low this year compared to 22.

I would say xbox at best scneario is around 22.5mi
That would be not far off of 25 million shipped then. Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft all use shipments (sold to stores) when reporting sales and revenue data but analysts estimate sell-through (sold to consumers).
 
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Three

Member
Wellfare is a Xbox fanboy and we know for a fact that xbox hardware sales is 25-30% low this year compared to 22.

I would say xbox at best scneario is around 22.5mi
Isn't hardware revenue the known fact? Did we get unit declines? This could be the reason for the discrepancy. People confusing revenue for units in the percentage decline.
 
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ReBurn

Gold Member
9WYU45z.png

What's happening here? Record low number of first party games sold since they record those numbers? Even their game sales is overall lower than what they did in Q2 2019. I thought their PC ports combined with subcription services was a great combo strategy? I mean, they are highly cannibalizing their sales, even multiplat sales, with their services strategy.

Also their margins are super low compared to the PS4 end of era. Services give their less profits than traditionnal sales?
What you're seeing here is confirmation of whay Jim Ryan said, that Sony is too dependent on third party. Their current first party output isn't enough to sustain the company as it exists today without the cut from third party game sales. Sony already confirmed that gamers are buying fewer full price games since the launch of the PS5. Add to that increased development costs and longer development timelines and it becomes clear that the premium $70 single player model folks are saying Sony needs to stick to won't be enough unless they can release a lot more games a lot faster.

Now people will point to Spider-Man 2 and claim that because it probably has already recouped its development and marketing budget s that it proves that this is where Sony should be focusing. But this one game doesn't exist in a vacuum. It isn't going to be enough to pay for every other studio that's still making unreleased games as well as all of the other people at PlayStation who don't make games at all. They need more stable and reliable sources of recurring revenue, which successful service-based games can provide.

The only real lever Sony can pull right now to grow first party percentage is to move more PS5 units to be able to sell more software units and PS+ subscriptions. That's why they are pushing so hard to move 25 million PS5 this FY, regardless of whether they make any money on them. They are sacrificing the bottom line in the short term to increase their ability to move software in the long term because they don't have any other way to move software unless they release on PC day 1, which they aren't going to do. This is the danger of the cycle of console generations. Every generation they have to rebuild the base from zero. With it taking a full generation or more to make games it's not hard to see how it's becoming more challenging.
 
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Thirty7ven

Banned
I base it off welfare's revenue chart on InstallBase, he actually has XBS higher at 25.8 million. The only official numbers we know (due to Microsoft document leaks) are that XBS shipped 4.6 million in Q3+Q4 FY 20/21 and 7.8 million in Q2+Q3+Q4 FY 21/22. Also these are estimates for shipments not sell-through, shipments are usually 2 million or so higher than sell-through.

Welfare is consistently overestimating XBS sales. Maybe it’s right but he has been consistent in that, almost monthly.
 

Shakka43

Member
I’m aware. Thought we’ve always used that term for games made by first party teams or owned IP like Demon Souls or Bloodborne, but you’re probably right, since it definitely won’t be third party.
As far as I remember Sony doesn't publish non owned IPs, or have they changed their stance on that?
 
9WYU45z.png

What's happening here? Record low number of first party games sold since they record those numbers? Even their game sales is overall lower than what they did in Q2 2019. I thought their PC ports combined with subcription services was a great combo strategy? I mean, they are highly cannibalizing their sales, even multiplat sales, with their services strategy.

Also their margins are super low compared to the PS4 end of era. Services give their less profits than traditionnal sales?
First party is down because Gamers buy a PS5 to play PS5 games. The vast majority of Sony's catalog is PS4 games, which much of the userbase has already played. SM2 is the first big PS5 title that Sony has released, so surely those numbers will increase as Sony expands their PS5 1st party games
 

FriulHado

Member
First party is down because Gamers buy a PS5 to play PS5 games. The vast majority of Sony's catalog is PS4 games, which much of the userbase has already played. SM2 is the first big PS5 title that Sony has released, so surely those numbers will increase as Sony expands their PS5 1st party games
Mmmh. I doubt of it. Gamers buy ps5 for Fortnite, Cod, Madden, Soccer games…primarily.
 

Three

Member
Why would they have changed it? If they are publishing it it’s because they own it. Doesn’t mean they own the dev.
That's his point and why he's asking. Read what he replied to. He is saying he thinks it's the same as Bloodborne or Demon's Souls unless it has changed recently and they are publishing unowned IPs.
 
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Dr_Ifto

Member
2.5M ahead of FY22 isn't going to be enough to get to 25 million. They have to sell 3.4 million on top of what they did in FY22 which was already a really strong result. They'll need to more than match PS4/5 record highs for Q3 and Q4.

FF7R2 probably won't be able to carry it in Q4.
They look to be selling about 1/3rd more per quarter than last year, so if they keep that trend, they could reach it. That would get them around 6m more units than last year. With the Spiderman 2 bundle now being 500 flat on amazon, that may just push it over the edge.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
I base it off welfare's revenue chart on InstallBase, he actually has XBS higher at 25.8 million. The only official numbers we know (due to Microsoft document leaks) are that XBS shipped 4.6 million in Q3+Q4 FY 20/21 and 7.8 million in Q2+Q3+Q4 FY 21/22. Also these are estimates for shipments not sell-through, shipments are usually 2 million or so higher than sell-through.
Figures. Welfare's Xbox estimate has always been on the higher side. Here is what his estimate has been QoQ.



He had Xbox at 21.75 million by Dec. 2022. However, Ampere Analysis and other estimates had XBS at 18 million by Dec. 2022.

In fact, Xbox's own official slide showed XBS at 21 million in June 2023 (6 months later). Funnily enough, Welfare himself shared that slide and yet didn't correct his numbers.



If you take into account the difference of ~3+ million in units here and the potential difference because of this data being for shipments, not sell-through, you can see where I'm coming from, and why Xbox would be more between 22-23 million units at best right now.
 

ReBurn

Gold Member
Which is why MS’s strategy on buying up major third parties is not just strengthening them but hurting Sony majorly at the same time, something MS knows (the “thought experiment”) and regulators failed to pick up or were unwilling to do so.
Exactly. The fact that Microsoft was able to gain control one of Sony's largest third party gaming revenue streams created a risk to the traditional sales model that made PlayStation so successful. They can't count on exclusivity deals and marketing deals the way they used to because other companies can buy whole publishers to prevent those deals.

I don't mean for this to sound like a bad thing, because it's not. But I wouldn't be surprised if we see significant restructuring at PlayStation next year to try to reduce operating costs. Not really to increase profits but to reduce risk from the dependency on third party revenue and to be able to increase capacity for developing first party games.
 

Unknown?

Member
Correct. The PS2's highest fiscal year was 22.52 million, PS1's 21.60 million, PS3's 14.30 million and PSP's 14.10 million. This illustrates what an incredibly high target 25 million in a single FY is, i don't think some people realize how difficult of a task this is.
Even if they fall short, it's absolutely going to beat that PS2 record.
 

ReBurn

Gold Member
First party is down because Gamers buy a PS5 to play PS5 games. The vast majority of Sony's catalog is PS4 games, which much of the userbase has already played. SM2 is the first big PS5 title that Sony has released, so surely those numbers will increase as Sony expands their PS5 1st party games
There are other factors as well. There are fewer PS5's out there than PS4's, so the ability to sell PS5-only software units is more constrained right now than it will be next year or the year after. For the percentage of sales that's first party to trend up in a meaningful way and to stay there two things have to happen. They have to increase the addressable market by selling as many consoles as possible, and they have to increase the pace of tentpole first party releases.

Spider-Man 2 is going to make this quarter look great, but next quarter unit sales of SM2 are probably going to be on the back side of the curve and starting the short tail. The percentage will drop again unless there are significant new releases throughout the year to sustain it, at least unless third party sales drop off a cliff. Sony is pushing hard with discounts to increase the addressable market and I really hope they hit their 25m console sales target. That will push all of the numbers up and ease some risk. Hopefully we see 3 or 4 big games as well.
 

Woopah

Member
9WYU45z.png

What's happening here? Record low number of first party games sold since they record those numbers? Even their game sales is overall lower than what they did in Q2 2019. I thought their PC ports combined with subcription services was a great combo strategy? I mean, they are highly cannibalizing their sales, even multiplat sales, with their services strategy.

Also their margins are super low compared to the PS4 end of era. Services give their less profits than traditionnal sales?
Record low first party sales are because they hardly released anything. Profit margin is probably affected by their PS5 discounts.
As far as I remember Sony doesn't publish non owned IPs, or have they changed their stance on that?
Well Sony are publishing Spiderman and Wolverine and they don't own those IP. I don't think they fully own Nier either.
 

Darsxx82

Member


If you take into account the difference of ~3+ million in units here and the potential difference because of this data being for shipments, not sell-through, you can see where I'm coming from, and why Xbox would be more between 22-23 million units at best right now.

There is no confirmation that this data is from shipments consoles. What's more, these are referring to user data there, so the most logical thing is to think that they are consoles in the hands of users. It is also not known when these figures are except that it was published in an event in June.

In almost 5 months, between those sold in this time and the consoles distributed in stores, there is no exaggeration in believing that we are at 24-25 million XS distributed as Welfare says.

It's funny to blame him for using the most positive estimates and then using the most pessimistic estimates 🤔
 

demigod

Member
I base it off welfare's revenue chart on InstallBase, he actually has XBS higher at 25.8 million. The only official numbers we know (due to Microsoft document leaks) are that XBS shipped 4.6 million in Q3+Q4 FY 20/21 and 7.8 million in Q2+Q3+Q4 FY 21/22. Also these are estimates for shipments not sell-through, shipments are usually 2 million or so higher than sell-through.

Wellfare is a Xbox fanboy and we know for a fact that xbox hardware sales is 25-30% low this year compared to 22.

I would say xbox at best scneario is around 22.5mi
Yeah he is. I trust him about as much as i trust vgchartz, aka zero.
 

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
Hardware is up 49% YoY and 49% QoQ,
Game and network services up 32% YoY too.

I've got to say I'm impressed, I would have thought they would be down.
Agree.

I know everythIng isn't good news in the results/info but this definitely is good news.

Once again, Sony seems to have a handle on stock now. Full on beast mode now.
 
Sony are keeping to the 25M forecast, which says they have no problem shipping it. It’ll all come down to sales.
They won't be able to do it.
They won't ship 11-12m of the huge PS5 boxes in on quarter.

If you come from logistics, you know that.
9WYU45z.png

What's happening here? Record low number of first party games sold since they record those numbers? Even their game sales is overall lower than what they did in Q2 2019. I thought their PC ports combined with subcription services was a great combo strategy? I mean, they are highly cannibalizing their sales, even multiplat sales, with their services strategy.

Also their margins are super low compared to the PS4 end of era. Services give their less profits than traditionnal sales?
Any chance you can add a rolling 12 months average line or something? That would be very interesting for your point
 

Ansphn

Member
Spiderman 2 is going to sell like crazy during this coming holidays (Thanksgiving and Xmas). I'm thinking it will sell 15 millions or more before January.
 

NeoIkaruGAF

Gold Member
So it doubled it's sales in 10 days?

That's solid momentum.
“Who gives a shit how fast something sells?”, asked someone in another thread celebrating a different first-party game.
Wonder what they think about this…
 
Record low first party sales are because they hardly released anything. Profit margin is probably affected by their PS5 discounts.

Well Sony are publishing Spiderman and Wolverine and they don't own those IP. I don't think they fully own Nier either.
Well they are releasing less games than in 2019 that's for sure. Why do they release less 1st party games? Who changed the PS4 winning formula since end of 2019?
 
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AmuroChan

Member
As far as I remember Sony doesn't publish non owned IPs, or have they changed their stance on that?

Why would they have changed it? If they are publishing it it’s because they own it. Doesn’t mean they own the dev.

I'm not sure about NA, but hey have published games that they don't own the IPs to in other regions of the world.

 
Sony is confident of selling 25mi in the fiscal year. Even if from now on they sold 1mi more each Q than 2022, they will reach around 23,5mi. But I think this black Friday can be huge for PS5, mostly because Spider-man and COD bundles.
 

ArcaneNLSC

Member
How can Spiderman sell 5M if there's only 4.9M PS5's in the world?
Not sure if sarcasm or unawareness but the PS5 has sold 46.6 million consoles in its lifetime. The 4.9 million is in reference to how many they've sold in the last 3 months.
 

Mowcno

Member
Sony is confident of selling 25mi in the fiscal year. Even if from now on they sold 1mi more each Q than 2022, they will reach around 23,5mi. But I think this black Friday can be huge for PS5, mostly because Spider-man and COD bundles.
Yeah the CoD bundle is going to be huge. Don't know what the pricing is in USA but it's a crazy deal here in the UK.

PS5 on it's own is £479 RRP, that's what it costs on Amazon right now.
PS5 with CoD MWIII is £409 RRP.

You're getting the console £70 cheaper and bundled free with a £70 game. Those things are going to fly off shelves. It costs £541.99 from amazon to buy the game and console separately, £409 for the bundle. £132.99 saving.

vNqspXv.png


November is going to be huge for PS5.
 
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StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
Yeah the CoD bundle is going to be huge. Don't know what the pricing is in USA but it's a crazy deal here in the UK.

PS5 on it's own is £479 RRP, that's what it costs on Amazon right now.
PS5 with CoD MWIII is £409 RRP.

You're getting the console £70 cheaper and bundled free with a £70 game. Those things are going to fly off shelves. It costs £541.99 from amazon to buy the game and console separately, £409 for the bundle. £132.99 saving.

vNqspXv.png


November is going to be huge for PS5.
Rest of year should be humongous sales. Their latest bundles are giving away a free game. The company is trying hard to hit PS5 sales estimates all year, where their first promo was $100 off earlier in the year. According to their latest earnings report today, hitting PS5 sales will be tough as per analysts even with the free game bundles.
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
What you're seeing here is confirmation of whay Jim Ryan said, that Sony is too dependent on third party. Their current first party output isn't enough to sustain the company as it exists today without the cut from third party game sales. Sony already confirmed that gamers are buying fewer full price games since the launch of the PS5. Add to that increased development costs and longer development timelines and it becomes clear that the premium $70 single player model folks are saying Sony needs to stick to won't be enough unless they can release a lot more games a lot faster.

Now people will point to Spider-Man 2 and claim that because it probably has already recouped its development and marketing budget s that it proves that this is where Sony should be focusing. But this one game doesn't exist in a vacuum. It isn't going to be enough to pay for every other studio that's still making unreleased games as well as all of the other people at PlayStation who don't make games at all. They need more stable and reliable sources of recurring revenue, which successful service-based games can provide.

The only real lever Sony can pull right now to grow first party percentage is to move more PS5 units to be able to sell more software units and PS+ subscriptions. That's why they are pushing so hard to move 25 million PS5 this FY, regardless of whether they make any money on them. They are sacrificing the bottom line in the short term to increase their ability to move software in the long term because they don't have any other way to move software unless they release on PC day 1, which they aren't going to do. This is the danger of the cycle of console generations. Every generation they have to rebuild the base from zero. With it taking a full generation or more to make games it's not hard to see how it's becoming more challenging.
The reason why first party games output seems slow is because the games take forever to come out (most the big name games are one game per generation unless it's a remake. They can churn out more AAA first party games if they wanted to but they prefer banking about $2 billion profit per year. Since 2016, someone posted a chart I had a discussion with and the games division made about $15 billion profit in 6-7 years. The more money they make, the slower the games come out.

If a typical AAA game costs $200M over 5 years, thats only $40M per year in costs for 5 years until it sells and rakes in somewhere betewen 10-20 million copies which is what most AAA Sony games sell.

The budget and time is there. But they preferred branching out to do GAAS now is a coin flip whether it does well or fails fast. Sony's SP high budget games consistently sell well. Even games like Days Gone sold something like 8 million copies with a lousy metacrtiic rating. Thats the low end for them.

What Sony wants is big steady cash flow from GAAS, instead of the roller coaster ride of SP games which is giant spike in sales in year one and then it drops like a rock until the sequel comes out.
 
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Woopah

Member
Well they are releasing less games than in 2019 that's for sure. Why do they release less 1st party games? Who changed the PS4 winning formula since end of 2019?
Well they wanted to release Stellar Blade, TLoU Factions and Helldivers 2 this year, but they all got delayed.
 

leo-j

Member
Nice spidey should be around 6-7 million by the time the bundles hit, I expect it to hit 15+ million by end of year making it another monster.
 
Figures. Welfare's Xbox estimate has always been on the higher side. Here is what his estimate has been QoQ.



He had Xbox at 21.75 million by Dec. 2022. However, Ampere Analysis and other estimates had XBS at 18 million by Dec. 2022.

In fact, Xbox's own official slide showed XBS at 21 million in June 2023 (6 months later). Funnily enough, Welfare himself shared that slide and yet didn't correct his numbers.



If you take into account the difference of ~3+ million in units here and the potential difference because of this data being for shipments, not sell-through, you can see where I'm coming from, and why Xbox would be more between 22-23 million units at best right now.

I wouldn't take Ampere as fact because they are making estimates on limited data just like Welfare is, only Microsoft has the exact sales figure and they don't want to share it. Didn't Ampere also estimate lifetime Xbox One sales to be 51 million and yet Microsoft confirmed 58 million? Also that 21 million figure was before Microsoft released their quarterly report for the April to June quarter, they released it in late July.
 
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Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
I wouldn't take Ampere as fact because they are making estimates on limited data just like Welfare is, only Microsoft has the exact sales figure and they don't want to share it. Didn't Ampere also estimate lifetime Xbox One sales to be 51 million and yet Microsoft confirmed 58 million? Also that 21 million figure was before Microsoft released their quarterly report for the April to June quarter, they released it in late July.
  1. Of course, only Microsoft's data is facts. Everything else is just an estimate. But if we're going with estimates, Ampere Analysis is much more credible than the Welfare guy as they have direct access to worldwide data that they used to estimate console sales.
  2. MS doesn't disclose Xbox console sales data in financial results anyway, so it'd have no bearing on the ID@Xbox presentation. This 21 million figure was presented to developers to encourage them to make games for Xbox. It was always going to be the latest and the highest possible numbers.
 

Killjoy-NL

Member
Well they wanted to release Stellar Blade, TLoU Factions and Helldivers 2 this year, but they all got delayed.
Can you blame them though?

It's not like Xbox offers much competition, so Sony can delay games to ensure the quality of their products.

That's a benefit of curbstomping your competition.
 
one thing to remember is that in the PS4 era, first party games got to $9.99-19.99 after a couple of years of launch.

Now, we have games like Demons souls or Returnal with a MSRP of $70 after 3 years.
 

OuterLimits

Member
Those are some impressive numbers. Go Sony!

Spider-Man outperforming Mario on a platform with significantly less users is cool to see.
oprah winfrey GIF by Golden Globes

Definitely cool but Mario will be a huge evergreen title that will sell at $60 for years probably.
 
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