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Wedbush July 2005 NPD Preview / prediction thread.

sonycowboy said:
I think the reason why the dropped the Cube version should be obvious

July 2004
----------------
PS2 508,807
XBX 264,455
GCN 32,547

I was wondering what software talk would break out. It's pretty damn slow, so here's some of the potential top 10 titles. And Mr. Pachter thinks there should be 10 titles over 100k

Top 10 Nominees
------------------------
1) NCAA 2006 (PS2)
2) NCAA 2006 (XBX)
3) Halo: Map Pack (XBX)
4) GTA:SA (XBX)
5) Pokemon (GBA)
6) MOH: PA (PS2)
7) SW: ROTS (PS2)
8) Conker (XBX)
9) Lego: SW (PS2)
10) Charlie & The Chocolate Factory ??? (PS2 or GBA)
11) Destroy All Humans (PS2)
12) Madagascar (PS2 / GBA)


Some other notable releases: Nanostray, Killer 7, Flatout, Delta Force: Black Hawk Down (XBX), Harvest Moon (GCN)

None of #7-#12 make 100K. Replace with other 100K candidates Fantastic Four and MC3, and maybe Flatout.
 
Amused_To_Death said:
None of #7-#12 make 100K. Replace with other 100K candidates Fantastic Four and MC3, and maybe Flatout.

Yeah, I mentioned missing FF before and I was just listing out possible cantidates, not my own predictions. I just don't see MC3 (you're talking about the PS2 or PSP version?) making it. PS2 version only did 111k last month (5 weeks) and PSP version only managed 43k in it's first week.

I've heard absolutely nothing about flatout and I expect it to do worse than Juiced last month (60k on PS2)
 
Today's the day.

Will the DS fall down again? Will the PSP finally fall below 200k as many have been predicting the past two months? IMO, I don't see why it hasn't fallen below 150k. It's $250 and has had little to no software released for months. It should be dropping. Will the GCN continue it's decline into obscurity? Will the XBox ever rise again? Will the GBA drop as Pokemon's release is behind us? Will the PS2 finally slow down?

All these questions and many more will be answered later today (well the HW might wait for tomorrow ;) )
 

Borys

Banned
Agh what the hell:

PS2 - 320K
Xbox - 140K
GC - 60K
PSP - 300K
NDS - 50K
GBA - 90K

Note that I'm not into predictions threads so that's probably a very stupid prediction.
 
Borys said:
Agh what the hell:

PS2 - 320K
Xbox - 140K
GC - 60K
PSP - 300K
NDS - 50K
GBA - 90K

Note that I'm not into predictions threads so that's probably a very stupid prediction.

Nah. It's shots in the dark for everybody, although, I think you do have some strange numbers, particularly for PSP & DS, but strange numbers win all the time.
 

jedimike

Member
sc - can you post your hardware table? I'm curious to see how much GC and XB have dropped off this year and how much PS2 has gained. Also, this is the first time, that I can remember, that no one has predicted the GC to sell over 100K units.

IMO, the 3rd pillar has taken to much development away from GC. Also, PSP is trumping it like a 2-bit whore here in the US. Most game stores have decreased their DS section while the PSP section is growing quickly... especially with all those damn movies.
 

Flo_Evans

Member
I wonder if the PSP will contine to sell as well as it has, if they can put another 250k on the street each month leading into the holidays.....

I dunno, every man, woman and child I show off my psp too says they want one. Then they ask 'how much is it?' and I say $250. Then they are like whoa! thats alot but for what it does its worth it. Most seem more impressed with the media functions than the games.

I would also expect all sales to be down as people are anticipating the x360 launch and saving up.

so I say 200k this month for the PSP. NDS... there are no games on it I want yet, so its hard for me to judge. 75k. PS2... 150k, it seems like everyone in the world already has one. I plan on getting a slim one when it hits $99, but people still seem to be gobbling them up.

so

PSP 200k
PS2 150k
NDS 75k
XBOX who cares?
CUBE who cares?
 

Mrbob

Member
I'll jump into the fun with my inept analysis!

PS2 - 260K
PSP - 190K
Xbox - 145K
GC - 65K
NDS - 95K
GBA - 120K
 

Wario64

works for Gamestop (lol)
only care about ds and psp!

PSP - 200k
DS - 115k


and just for fun

Killer 7 (total) - 50k


edit: revised DS numbers. factoring in the Mario64 promotion
 

Fuzzy

I would bang a hot farmer!
sonycowboy said:
They're released ~ 4:30PM and if we're lucky, bunk arrives ~ 5:30 - 6:30PM
But we all know that we'll only get a trickle today and have to wait until tomorrow for the huge lists. :(
 

Lindsay

Dot Hacked
Wario64 said:
bunkum, please feed us :(

So we eat numbers now? lol


I'm not up on predicting stuff~just having hope! And I hope Emerald does over 150k to further close the gap on Lg ^_^;
 

bunkum

Member
NPD is having technical difficulties and will not have the data out till 12:00pm ET today.

Therefore I doubt I can post data untill tomorrow.
 
Based on the percentages reported by Gamespot, here are the results of the console HW predictions. Scotch wins by a landslide, while Mrbob gets second and bycha and I tie for third. NOTE: results may change once we get actual numbers and handheld numbers come in. I may YET be victorious!! :D

Numbers based on percentages in Gamespot article
PS2 261,929 = 262k
XBX 133,302 = 133k
GCN 49,257 = 49k

#1
Scotch said:
PS2: 270k +/- 8k
Xbox: 130k +/- 3k
GC: 55k +/- 6k
Total = 17k

#2
Mrbob said:
PS2 - 260K +/- 2k
Xbox - 145K +/- 12k
GC - 65K +/- 16k
Total = 30k

#3
sonycowboy said:
PS2 = 285k +/- 23k
Xbox = 125k +/- 8k
GC = 50k +/- 1k
Total = 32k

#3
bycha said:
PS2 = 280,000 +/- 18k
GCN = 60,000 +- 11k
Xbox = 130,000 +3k
Total = 32k

#4
donny2112 said:
PS2 - 240K +/- 22k
Xbox - 120K +/- 13k
GCN - 50K +/- 1k
Total = 36k

#5
BuzzJive said:
PS2: 270k +/- 8k
Xbox: 115k +/- 18k
GC: 60k +/- 11k
Total 37k

#6
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
PS2 265.000 +/- 3k
XBX 110.000 +/- 23k
NGC 65.000 +/- 16k
Total = 42k
 

donny2112

Member
Thanks for posting the closest predictions, so far, sonycowboy! It'll be interesting to see if/when the handheld numbers are released separately. :)

gamewhopper said:
GTA can't say **** what with it being released in October at earliest and all.

IGN Release date October 1st

Good catch. Last I heard, it was releasing in early September. In that case, factoring in the reported price drop the day before Nintendogs, the DS actually has a fighting chance of outselling the PSP in the U.S. in September.
 
Just so there's absolutely no confusion this time, I'll start the requests for companies:


NIS AMERICA.


As always, thanks, bunkum. :D
 

Scotch

Member
sonycowboy said:
Based on the percentages reported by Gamespot, here are the results of the console HW predictions. Scotch wins by a landslide, while Mrbob gets second and bycha and I tie for third. NOTE: results may change once we get actual numbers and handheld numbers come in. I may YET be victorious!! :D
Yay! And it was my very first prediction :lol

(last month's numbers /5 x4 :D)
 

donny2112

Member
FateBreaker said:
Just so there's absolutely no confusion this time, I'll start the requests for companies:


NIS AMERICA.


As always, thanks, bunkum. :D

Wrong thread. sonycowboy has started one, but bunkum may decide to start his own when he gets the numbers next week.
 

Dalthien

Member
sonycowboy said:
Scotch fucking owned this month. :lol

A winner is you.

I can't help but wonder why you bumped this thread 6 days after you already told us that Scotch won the prediction contest. Are you hinting that he was also very close with his handheld predictions?
 

DarienA

The black man everyone at Activision can agree on
Dalthien said:
I can't help but wonder why you bumped this thread 6 days after you already told us that Scotch won the prediction contest. Are you hinting that he was also very close with his handheld predictions?

Yes, you should probably check the handheld thread.
 

donny2112

Member
Based on handheld numbers from this thread and just looking at the top 7 from sonycowboy's earlier post ...

#1
Scotch said:
Consoles: 17K
Handhelds: 17K
Total: 34K

#2
sonycowboy said:
Consoles: 32K
Handhelds: 22K
Total: 54K

#3
bycha said:
Consoles: 32K
Handhelds: 33K
Total: 65K

#4
donny2112 said:
Consoles: 36K
Handhelds: 31K
Total: 67K

#5
BuzzJive said:
Consoles: 37K
Handhelds: 86K
Total: 123K

#6
Mrbob said:
Consoles: 30K
Handhelds: 116K
Total: 146K

#7
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
Consoles: 42K
Handhelds: 117K
Total: 159K


Awesome job for Scotch! :) Everyone take note of his method.

Scotch said:
(last month's numbers /5 x4 :D )

:)

Edit: Took so long totalling up the numbers, that sonycowboy beat me to it. ;-)
 

Scotch

Member
donny2112 said:
Awesome job for Scotch! :) Everyone take note of his method.



:)
Thanks :D.

I did tweak the numbers a little bit compared to last month. Basicly lowered the PSP, Xbox en NGC numbers a little bit.
 
Scotch said:
Thanks :D.

I did tweak the numbers a little bit compared to last month. Basicly lowered the PSP, Xbox en NGC numbers a little bit.

I should disqualify you for not giving seperate DS/GBA numbers, only I can't divulge the GBA/DS numbers. But next time, you'd better seperate them :D
 
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