octiny
Banned
Praise the lord no one has caught me playing my Xbox for hours every week w/ a black picture on my TV
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Praise the lord no one has caught me playing my Xbox for hours every week w/ a black picture on my TV
kyoji
Member
Noone is calling it a failed platform stop being butthurt, most are having a civil discussion. Some of you guys are hella sensitive.
Kagey K
Banned
Chukhopops
Member
Does nobody understand basic mathematics anymore?
- mid-2019 is base 100;
- grow by 86% the first year. New value is 186 or +86 absolute gain;
- second year target growth is +48% so the target gain is 186 * 1.48 = 275;
- so the absolute target gain is 275 - 186 = 89. The prediction was that they would gain subs even faster than before;
- actual growth is +37% so the new value is 186 * 1.37 = 255;
- that’s an absolute gain of 255 - 186 = 69. Which is still insane YoY growth.
Basically they expected to have even higher new subs this year (post Covid) and it fell short, but they still gained subscribers (obviously) at 77% of last year’s pace.
If you see it as the service being doomed…
- mid-2019 is base 100;
- grow by 86% the first year. New value is 186 or +86 absolute gain;
- second year target growth is +48% so the target gain is 186 * 1.48 = 275;
- so the absolute target gain is 275 - 186 = 89. The prediction was that they would gain subs even faster than before;
- actual growth is +37% so the new value is 186 * 1.37 = 255;
- that’s an absolute gain of 255 - 186 = 69. Which is still insane YoY growth.
Basically they expected to have even higher new subs this year (post Covid) and it fell short, but they still gained subscribers (obviously) at 77% of last year’s pace.
If you see it as the service being doomed…
BigLee74
Member
You are aware they don’t force anybody to subscribe? Chill. Let folk enjoy the value they are getting. Forza Horizon 5 and Halo Infinite incoming!
SenjutsuSage
Banned
Microsoft in FY20 beat their Game Pass target by 14%. They achieved 85.75% growth with a target of 71% growth. For FY21 their target was 47.79% growth, they achieved 37.48% growth. So Game Pass was already running ahead of their projected targets as of 2020, which makes missing this year's target not quite as bad. These numbers, before titles like Forza Horizon 5, Halo Infinite and Starfield, are great.
CrimsonSquall
Member
You’re hiredMicrosoft in FY20 beat their Game Pass target by 14%. They achieved 85.75% growth with a target of 71% growth. For FY21 their target was 47.79% growth, they achieved 37.48% growth. So Game Pass was already running ahead of their projected targets as of 2020, which makes missing this year's target not quite as bad. These numbers, before titles like Forza Horizon 5, Halo Infinite and Starfield, are great.
BennyBlanco
aka IMurRIVAL69
I wonder if MS games selling so well on Steam is indicative that the service isn’t popular on the platform. Their client sucks but the value proposition is great. Sea of Thieves and Halo are regulars in the top sellers on steam.
Salty Popsicle
Banned
This isn't very telling considering none of the large tentpole first-party games have released as of yet. Now if the growth target isn't achieved after Forza Horizon 5 and Halo Infinite launch, then it will be something to worry about.
GHG
Member
It's normal that percentage increases tail off as something gets larger, but the actual headline is the fact that Microsoft themselves weren't expecting it to start tailing off to such a degree this soon. What will be interesting to see is how they adjust the target for next year in light of this.
SenjutsuSage
Banned
It's in the numbers themselves.
Last year Microsoft projected 71% growth for Game Pass, but beat that with 85.75% growth. This fiscal year they had a target of 47.79% and achieved 37.48%. If you combine last fiscal year and this most recent one, Game Pass is clearly ahead of Microsoft's projected growth targets by 4.44%. And this is all before Microsoft's biggest game releases.
Gamerguy84
Member
Nvm.
Last edited:
Kokoloko85
Member
So what does this mean?
Last edited:
ResilientBanana
Member
To be fair the COVID shutdown ended in the US so the missing 11% growth could be due to that, but also the lack of noteworthy releases, which changes during the holiday.
Last edited:
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Because some of the people that love GamePass, love to make it seem as if it's a crime to sell a new video game for $70.
Ozzy Onya A2Z
Member
Welcome to the world of crazed fandom and online armchair experts; where success, albeit not as targeted specifically, is failure.
Gamepass keeps growing and big titles are on the way. I'm still laughing at the poster on the other page saying the latest 11 titles releasing were crap. Clearly that poster has no clue how big Age of Empires IV and that RTS franchise actually is. Funny how silly some posts are when it's not about their specific vested gaming interest.
Last edited:
GHG
Member
Targets don't remain static. The target for this year would have taken previous years into account since it would have been set after last year's figures could be analysed.
Yep, I think that could be a completely reasonable conclusion. Either that or they expected better growth from the PC side of things.
Last edited:
The only disappointment here should be for Satya and Phil for their bonuses. It's still growth, and still pretty good. This was made in June 20 before the Halo delay and such bringing the lofty goals probably. Especially after exceeding expectations before
If June 21 ended with around 20.5M and we think around 1M subs a month that brings us to 24-25M. I'm sure Forza b4b aoe4 and Halo will bring it close to 30M to close out the year.
Either way I'm happy with my sub and hope it continues to grow
If June 21 ended with around 20.5M and we think around 1M subs a month that brings us to 24-25M. I'm sure Forza b4b aoe4 and Halo will bring it close to 30M to close out the year.
Either way I'm happy with my sub and hope it continues to grow
Last edited:
mejin
Member
Ozzy Onya A2Z
Member
I think with Forza and Halo Infinite that number will be surpassed end of this year or early next year.
The Eradicator
Member
That isn't how percentages work. They are 23% off target. You don't subtract the raw percentages.
GHG
Member
Going from 20 to 30 million would represent 50% growth in a couple of months. Do you think that's realistic when they couldn't achieve 48% in 12 months?
SenjutsuSage
Banned
Yes, that's true, and taking FY2019 numbers into account, and after those figures were analyzed, Microsoft set a 71% growth target for Game Pass FY2020, which Game Pass beat 14%. So in the prior year, they overperformed their projection, and in this year they underperformed them. Taken together, this fiscal year and last, Game Pass is beating Microsoft internal projections for subscriber growth, all without Forza Horizon 5, Halo Infinite or Starfield.
Ozzy Onya A2Z
Member
Given the timeframe already they're likely pushing 23 million. Forza and Halo sales push 7Mil combined easily around launch months, historically I mean. There's a weird transition from hard sales to GP subs but yes I think the line up this XMAS and start of next year will push over 30Mil.
kyoji
Member
Zhuge estimates closer to 20million, hes a numbers guy but who knows
Yeah holiday sales and the expansion of cloud in Brazil, Australia, Japan, etc should help too
M1chl
Currently Gif and Meme Champion
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
On topic: so many pro here that seems to know how Microsoft is thinking lmao.
Where the fuck i get my Jimbo news?
Kagey K
Banned
Last edited:
Genx3
Member
Orta
Banned
Because Sonygaf.
Kagey K
Banned
The confusion is the 37% is from July 1, ‘20 to June 30, ‘21 and 18 mil was announced in Jan (the mid point.)
Last edited:
Chukhopops
Member
Well I’m not sure how he calculated that since it would mean the number in June 2020 was 14.5 million and nobody really knows that.
But if that’s correct that’s 5.5 million increase in twelve months or 458,000 new subscribers per month over the period.
If there were 14.5 in June 2020 then there were 7.8M in June 2019. So 2019-2020 had 558,000 new subs per month on average.
Spitfire098
Member
Yall making up you own hypothetical conversations and then crying about. Lol love to see it.
Thirty7ven
Banned
Approaching the stage at which people will suddenly realize the ceiling for this is a lot lower than they dreamed of. Price about to go upsies
Last edited:
Hendrick's
If only my penis was as big as my GamerScore!
MDSLKTR
Member
MikeM
Member
What?
Only for Xbox’s performance review (i.e. execs). 38% growth is still absurd, but future growth is going to be constrained by Xbox Series supply and $1 deals expiring. I’m curious to see the rate of those who actually pay full price once the $1 deal expires. Retention is important.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
How did you get to that number?
THE DUCK
voted poster of the decade by bots
I don't get how you can't be. I usually find at least a game a month, easily substantiates the cost. And I don't get your last statement, if there is two full price games it you want it makes even more sense to be on gamepass and then buy them later if you really must own them for $10 each.
Genx3
Member
That's huge growth but MS was hoping for even more growth.
THE DUCK
voted poster of the decade by bots
Speak for yourself, I'm a gamer and it's good for me. There appears to be 25 Million other people as well who seem to like it. They didn't get 25 Million sustained subscribers from just the discounted subs, that's getting old.
Kagey K
Banned
THE DUCK
voted poster of the decade by bots
And of course the articles and thread leads with misses target instead of up 38%. Or at least both metrics.
kyoji
Member
I see literally two people out of everyone you quoted man, stop being so sensitive. People are entitled to fair opinions. Most of the posters you quoted are reacting to the data presented, just like people reacted to the faux data from a few weeks ago.