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[Heisenberg007]

So let me get this straight
A: Game underperformed, because people on gaming forum thought it will have more CCU on Steam?
B: Game underperformed, because two games handed over free keys/had free weekends and because of that they have higher peak CCU on Steam

Brilliant analysis mate.
Can't wait for more

Reading is hard, I know, but it isn't that hard.

Starfield underperformed as it has 30% less peak CCU than Fallout 4, even though Steam's CCU (potential) has increased by 388%! And Starfield also got trounced by games like Baldur's Gate 3, Cyberpunk, Hogwarts Legacy, Hitman 2, Life is Strange 2, Valheim, etc. that were released by significantly smaller studios.

 

[Heisenberg007]

what is the source on that firs picture?

Most popular games on PC. Microsoft.com

 

[Godot25]

Reading is hard, I know, but it isn't that hard.

Starfield underperformed as it has 30% less peak CCU than Fallout 4, even though Steam's CCU (potential) has decreased by 388%! And Starfield also got trounced by games like Baldur's Gate 3, Cyberpunk, Hogwarts Legacy, Hitman 2, Life is Strange 2, Valheim, etc. that were released by significantly smaller studios.

"Starfield underperformed" kinda implies that you know how big expectations were about commercial performance of this game. And using Reeera expectations is not right place to get info for that.
Also it ignores fact that you have no idea how big of an impact PC Game Pass had on Steam CCU...
...and fact that Starfield is new IP, unlike Fallout 4...

Comparison to Hitman 2 and Life is Strange 2 are just laughable at this point because both of those games hit their peak during game giveaway (LiS2) or free week (Hitman 2) which is telling exactly nothing.
And if you consider being "trounced" by Cyberpunk 2077, Hogwarts Legacy and Baldur's Gate 3 as an indication of game "underperfroming" while (again) ignoring fact that game is in PC Game Pass day 1, then okay I mean. It's your "analysis" at the end of the day. Also...you know that Valheim costs 19,99€, right?

So you picked incomplete numbers and you are trying to draw conclusion?
As I said...Great "analysis"

 

[Heisenberg007]

"Starfield underperformed" kinda implies that you know how big expectations were about commercial performance of this game. And using Reeera expectations is not right place to get info for that.
Also it ignores fact that you have no idea how big of an impact PC Game Pass had on Steam CCU...
...and fact that Starfield is new IP, unlike Fallout 4...

Comparison to Hitman 2 and Life is Strange 2 are just laughable at this point because both of those games hit their peak during game giveaway (LiS2) or free week (Hitman 2) which is telling exactly nothing.
And if you consider being "trounced" by Cyberpunk 2077, Hogwarts Legacy and Baldur's Gate 3 as an indication of game "underperfroming" while (again) ignoring fact that game is in PC Game Pass day 1, then okay I mean. It's your "analysis" at the end of the day. Also...you know that Valheim costs 19,99€, right?

So you picked incomplete numbers and you are trying to draw conclusion?
As I said...Great "analysis"

TL;DR. I don't want to accept it for ... reasons.

So many excuses, man.

 

[Stuart360]

I mean the highest rated game in PC history (which is also a rpg) launched a month before Starfield, and is still pulling in 300k peaks a day. How many of those poeple have not even started Starfield yet? There is a reason why big games try to avoid other big games releases.
Starfield is also on Gamepass, a service that is supposed to have 15mil subs on PC. A service that all the 'experts' on here said will effect game sales, and when it looks like it has, its not allowed to be used as a reason why for some reason.

Even ignoring all that, if you think Starfields peak numbers are bad you dont know what you're taling about. Take any recent year, Google what AAA games released in that year, them check their peak numbers against Starfield, you may be surprised.

 

[Team Andromeda]

Well done to the team. Its ace looking at your online friends and seeing they're all 'exploring the galaxy'. That alone tells me this game is HUGE.

 

[Godot25]

TL;DR. I don't want to accept it for ... reasons.

So many excuses, man.

I mean..what can I say to the guy who saw user pool on Reeee where people thought that game would have higher CCU on Steam and said "game must have under-performed for sure"
Brilliant

As I said. To say that XYZ game unperformed you must know what the expectations were.
I never expected Starfield to beat F4 CCU, because of new IP argument and because of PC Game Pass. So I'm not disappointed.
You are. But at least I'm not trying to pretend if I know if game met expectations of Microsoft of under-performed.

 

[Elysium44]

And if you consider being "trounced" by Cyberpunk 2077, Hogwarts Legacy and Baldur's Gate 3 as an indication of game "underperfroming" while (again) ignoring fact that game is in PC Game Pass day 1, then okay

How popular do you think the Xbox app is with PC players compared to Steam?

btw I just looked at the app to see if there was data there on the relative popularity of games, but you can't sort by popularity, only by 'relevance'

I did notice that the game is £70 or £100 on the Xbox PC store, versus £60 or £85 on Steam though. So why would someone interested in the game on PC ever use it on the Xbox app, when they could buy it cheaper on Steam, OR trial it for two hours for free?

 

[Godot25]

How popular do you think the Xbox app is with PC players compared to Steam?

I don't know. And neither you or our "analyst" Heisenberg007 .
That's exactly why it's stupid to say "game under-performed" if you don't have any data from big performance metric, don't you think?

 

[feynoob]

How many xbox players are bathesda loyal fans?

A lot

 

[Heisenberg007]

I mean..what can I say to the guy who saw user pool on Reeee where people thought that game would have higher CCU on Steam and said "game must have under-performed for sure"
Brilliant

Nah, don't put words in my mouth. I used the REE poll to prove that people had higher expectations from it, and it didn't meet any of those expectations.

The proof that Starfield underperformed is the data from Steam. Starfield performed 30% poorer than Fallout 4, despite Steam growing by 338%.

 

[Elysium44]

I don't know. And neither you or our "analyst" Heisenberg007 .
That's exactly why it's stupid to say "game under-performed" if you don't have any data from big performance metric, don't you think?

We have some data, particularly from Steam. The other data is incomplete because Microsoft keep it secret. Why do you think they would do that? I bet you can guess.

Also the Xbox app is widely hated so I doubt many people are using it compared to Steam. I only used it originally because of Forza, in the days when Microsoft weren't putting it on Steam.

 

[Negotiator101]

Nah, don't put words in my mouth. I used the REE poll to prove that people had higher expectations from it, and it didn't meet any of those expectations.

The proof that Starfield underperformed is the data from Steam. Starfield performed 30% poorer than Fallout 4, despite Steam growing by 338%.

still going I see

 

[Godot25]

The proof that Starfield underperformed is the data from Steam. Starfield performed 30% poorer than Fallout 4, despite Steam growing by 338%.

So we are ignoring PC Game Pass and still trying to draw conclusions

Jesus Christ

We have some data, particularly from Steam. The other data is incomplete because Microsoft keep it secret. Why do you think they would do that? I bet you can guess.

Well. They told you game had 6 million players in first day of base game release, so you can say if it is "flop."

For other numbers we need to wait for October. That's when Microsoft will release financial report for Q1 FY24 which covers july-september window. Microsoft had modest expectation of growth in software revenue and console sales revenue and if reported numbers will be higher then expectations, then you can draw conclusions if game under-performed in relation to game itself and game as a "system seller" of Xbox consoles. Because impact of Starfield's release was included in Xbox revenue expectations for Q1 FY24.

 

[Elysium44]

So we are ignoring PC Game Pass and still trying to draw conclusions

Jesus Christ


Well. They told you game had 6 million players in first day of base game release, so you can say if it is "flop."

For other numbers we need to wait for October. That's when Microsoft will release financial report for Q1 FY24 which covers july-september window. Microsoft had modest expectation of growth in software revenue and console sales revenue and if reported numbers will be higher then expectations, then you can draw conclusions if game under-performed in relation to game itself and game as a "system seller" of Xbox consoles.

You're still ignoring that the PC game pass is insignificant compared to Steam.

As for Microsoft releasing figures, they will probably be typically opaque and you'll need to decipher them, and still won't really know much. I don't know why they're allowed to get away without releasing crystal clear hard sales numbers, considering they are a public company and have shareholders.

 

[Heisenberg007]

So we are ignoring PC Game Pass and still trying to draw conclusions

Jesus Christ

PC Game Pass (15 million subscribers, at best) is insignificant compared to Steam (120 million). How much impact do you think it has?

Starfield hit 330K peak with a 120 million Steam userbase. That's a ratio of 0.275%. Use the same percentage and you'll get 41,250 additional players if you account for Game Pass PC. Let's double it for no reason, just to make you happy.

So, accounting for Game Pass, the 330K becomes 412K.

That is still less than Fallout 4. And less than 50% of Baldur's Gate 3, Cyberpunk, Elden Ring, Hogwart's Legacy, etc.

 

[Mr Reasonable]

still going I see

Desperate grifting shitposting can be time consuming. Sometimes if enough people reply and contradict a shitposter's output there's only one response: Increase output.

There's a famous case of a South Korean shitposter who died in an internet cafe after spending approximately 42 hours giving his "fair and unvarnished" opinion of Sunset Overdrive, a game he'd never played, but some people on the internet had said was underwhelming while other people had been saying they'd enjoyed it. Apparently, when discovered by staff in a quiet corner of the cafe, he was still logged into a popular gaming site and was replying to someone who had said "I don't know why you're so obsessed with trying to say this game's no fun, I'm having a blast!" At the time of his death, his fingers were poised over the keys M E T A C R I.

It was planned that fans of shitposters the world over would gather once a year to celebrate his life on a day they planned to call Meta-Cry. Nobody showed up.

 

[Godot25]

You're still ignoring that the PC game pass is insignificant compared to Steam.

I guess you have "hard numbers" for that claim.

Like. Nobody is saying that PC Game Pass is bigger then Steam or anything crazy like that. All I said was nobody knows (outside of Bethesda and Microsoft) how PC Game Pass impacted CCU of Starfield on Steam. And trying to pretend otherwise is just "pulling numbers from your ass."

And regarding figures. It's pretty easy
If Microsoft had expectations of selling XYZ consoles in Q1 and they sold more, Starfield's impact as a "system seller" exceeded their expectations.
If Microsoft had expectations of earning XYZ revenue on software side and they earned more, they exceeded their expectations thanks (also) to Starfield.

But I expect that even then we will have our homegrown analysts who will spin everything to try to say something else than it was actually said.

 

[Superayate]

You're still ignoring that the PC game pass is insignificant compared to Steam.

As for Microsoft releasing figures, they will probably be typically opaque and you'll need to decipher them, and still won't really know much. I don't know why they're allowed to get away without releasing crystal clear hard sales numbers, considering they are a public company and have shareholders.

Seriously, do you know exactly how many users PC game pass has ? And the ratio of these users playing Starfield ??

 

[Godot25]

PC Game Pass (15 million subscribers, at best) is insignificant compared to Steam (120 million). How much impact do you think it has?

Starfield hit 330K peak with a 120 million Steam userbase. That's a ratio of 0.275%. Use the same percentage and you'll get 41,250 additional players if you account for Game Pass PC. Let's double it for no reason, just to make you happy.

So, accounting for Game Pass, the 330K becomes 412K.

That is still less than Fallout 4. And less than 50% of Baldur's Gate 3, Cyberpunk, Elden Ring, Hogwart's Legacy, etc.

Jesus. Another brilliant analysis.

You are outdoing yourself mate

Saying that if Starfield was played by 0,275% of Steam monthly MAU, PC Game Pass userbase must have same structure of playtime made me spit my coffee on my monitor. This is truly Analysis of all analysis!

Hint: Stop fudging your own numbers to draw nonsense conclusions.

 

[Elysium44]

Desperate grifting shitposting can be time consuming. Sometimes if enough people reply and contradict a shitposter's output there's only one response: Increase output.

There's a famous case of a South Korean shitposter who died in an internet cafe after spending approximately 42 hours giving his "fair and unvarnished" opinion of Sunset Overdrive, a game he'd never played, but some people on the internet had said was underwhelming while other people had been saying they'd enjoyed it. Apparently, when discovered by staff in a quiet corner of the cafe, he was still logged into a popular gaming site and was replying to someone who had said "I don't know why you're so obsessed with trying to say this game's no fun, I'm having a blast!" At the time of his death, his fingers were poised over the keys M E T A C R I.

It was planned that fans of shitposters the world over would gather once a year to celebrate his life on a day they planned to call Meta-Cry. Nobody showed up.

Got a link to this story? It's so famous I can't find it

 

[Superayate]

PC Game Pass (15 million subscribers, at best) is insignificant compared to Steam (120 million). How much impact do you think it has?

Starfield hit 330K peak with a 120 million Steam userbase. That's a ratio of 0.275%. Use the same percentage and you'll get 41,250 additional players if you account for Game Pass PC. Let's double it for no reason, just to make you happy.

So, accounting for Game Pass, the 330K becomes 412K.

That is still less than Fallout 4. And less than 50% of Baldur's Gate 3, Cyberpunk, Elden Ring, Hogwart's Legacy, etc.

OMG, honestly here that's the most stupid analyse number I have ever read... Do you really think that you'll have such ratio regarding this game in an XBOX subscription service where SF is clearly the main game released since near two years?

 

[Elysium44]

Seriously, do you know exactly how many users PC game pass has ? And the ratio of these users playing Starfield ??

No I don't, but it is known in the PC gaming community that the Xbox app is poor and thus few people use it, so it doesn't seem like a completely illogical leap of faith to suspect the numbers aren't very high. We can also logically deduce that if it were in fact highly popular, Microsoft would release hard data trumpeting the fact. No?

 

[Heisenberg007]

Jesus. Another brilliant analysis.

You are outdoing yourself mate

Saying that if Starfield was played by 0,275% of Steam monthly MAU, PC Game Pass userbase must have same structure of playtime made me spit my coffee on my monitor. This is truly Analysis of all analysis!

Hint: Stop fudging your own numbers to draw nonsense conclusions.

The estimate is for what happens to Steam CCU if Starfield doesn't launch on Game Pass. But as I expected, more excuses and "reasons" why it's not right.

Have a good day.

 

[Stuart360]

15mil Gamepass subs is way less than Steams userbase (in fact its estimated that PC gamers make up around 200mil users when taking into acocunt all launchers), but i dont think it works like that. If you want the game on Steam you have to pay full price, while on Gamepass its just the proce of scubscription.
Plus even if only 10% of PC Gamepass users played the game on Gamepass, thats still 1.5mil lost players from Steam, and i'm pretty sure with a game like this that way more than 10% of Gamepass subscribers will of played the game on Gamepass.
I also think its a bit cringy, expected but cringy, for certain people to ignore Gamepass subs when literally since Gmepass relesed people have been saying Gamepass will effect game sales.

You cant keep changing the metrics to suit an argument.

 

[Chukhopops]

Starfield hit 330K peak with a 120 million Steam userbase. That's a ratio of 0.275%. Use the same percentage and you'll get 41,250 additional players if you account for Game Pass PC. Let's double it for no reason, just to make you happy.

I’m speechless, this might be some of the dumbest logic I have ever seen. And the bar was set quite high already.

Comparing a service where the game is available for no extra cost with a store where you have to buy it full price, and basing the use percentage of one to estimate the other.

Bravo.

 

[Heisenberg007]

I’m speechless, this might be some of the dumbest logic I have ever seen. And the bar was set quite high already.

Comparing a service where the game is available for no extra cost with a store where you have to buy it full price, and basing the use percentage of one to estimate the other.

Bravo.

The estimate is for what happens to Steam CCU if Starfield doesn't launch on Game Pass. But as I expected, more excuses and "reasons" why it's not right.

Have a good day.

 

[Ozriel]

Phil and the Xbox team bet everything on this game.
As good as these numbers are, they're still not 'game of a generation/will turn things around' level.

I wonder how much of an impact it had on the hardware tho

Some weeks ago, we had threads claiming the game wasn’t even being marketed.

Now it’s “xbox bet everything on Starfield”?

 

[Elysium44]

PC Game Pass (15 million subscribers, at best)

I looked for info on this, it looks like Microsoft are conflating everyone with game pass ultimate (which gives access to PC game pass) and using that to puff up the numbers. It's the usual smoke and mirrors in other words. 15 million people who 'could' access it on PC doesn't mean most of them would, or even that they have a PC.

 

[Godot25]

The estimate is for what happens to Steam CCU if Starfield doesn't launch on Game Pass. But as I expected, more excuses and "reasons" why it's not right.

Have a good day.

I mean. You should apply for a job at Circana. I'm sure people there would applaud to your ability to create numbers from thin air and present them as a fact

 

[Stuart360]

I like how talking sense is seen as making excuses from the trolls.

 

[Mr Moose]

Some weeks ago, we had threads claiming the game wasn’t even being marketed.

Now it’s “xbox bet everything on Starfield”?

Now?

August is going to be nuts for ps5 with the fire sale.

Let's see what effect Starfield has...Microsoft betting everything on that game lol

From a month ago.

 

[jm89]

Wtf is chris doing here?




People still arguing he isn't comparing sales number to gamepass numbers?

 

[jm89]

Lol he says his doing popularity. Put on those clown shoes chris, you know what you doing.

 

[Mr Moose]

Lol he says his doing popularity. Put on those clown shoes chris, you know what you doing.

He's click-baiting.

 

[DenchDeckard]

So let me get this straight
A: Game underperformed, because people on gaming forum thought it will have more CCU on Steam?
B: Game underperformed, because two games handed over free keys/had free weekends and because of that they have higher peak CCU on Steam

Brilliant analysis mate.
Can't wait for more

Guys a psycho for negative xbox stuff but I never see him getting warnings or bans....I'm convinced he's got some dirt on the mods or worse...

 

[jm89]

He's click-baiting.

Yeah seems so.

It's one way to damage his reputation. You start losing trust in stuff he says.

 

[Mr Moose]

Yeah seems so.

It's one way to damage his reputation. You start losing trust in stuff he says.

Yeah, I think Adam will admit Dring is full of shit now after the first Tweet.

Wtf is chris doing here?




People still arguing he isn't comparing sales number to gamepass numbers?

He's not equating game pass to sales. That's something users here are doing.

 

[Elios83]

Lol he says his doing popularity. Put on those clown shoes chris, you know what you doing.

At least he's been forced to admit that he's talking about "players" and isn't continuing with the disingenous Diablo 4 comparison to justify the super poor physical sales.

 

[Portugeezer]

it’s behind Hogwarts, Zelda, Star Wars, Resi 4, FF16 and Dead Island 2 on that list

But then...:



When you include gamepass even the impossible becomes possible.

When we all gamepass, we all win.

I can't see that happening. I expect Gamepass to cannibalise the digital sales.

Wtf is chris doing here?




People still arguing he isn't comparing sales number to gamepass numbers?

Those numbers are ass. Is he trying to make it look impressive for Starfield, because there are better ways.

 

[Stuart360]

At least he's been forced to admit that he's talking about "players" and isn't continuing with the disingenous Diablo 4 comparison to justify the super poor physical sales.

Super poor physical sales?, hitting no.1?.
PC has zero physical sales, and there have been first party games on Xbox that have already hit 90% digital sales according to past UK Sales threads.

 

[Orbital2060]

Game pass costs money.

 

[FireFly]

The estimate is for what happens to Steam CCU if Starfield doesn't launch on Game Pass. But as I expected, more excuses and "reasons" why it's not right.

Have a good day.

There's still no reason to think that the attach rate would be similar, because they are different audiences. (All people with Steam accounts vs. those signed up to an Xbox subscription service). Or at least, we have no basis for evaluating the difference in attach rates.

 

[MidGenRefresh]

If it’s comparable with Diablo 4, I’d say it’s amazing for a new IP.

 

[intheinbetween]

How positive XBOX news can end up in such a toxic thread?

 

[Mr Moose]

Super poor physical sales?, hitting no.1?.
PC has zero physical sales, and there have been first party games on Xbox that have already hit 90% digital sales according to past UK Sales threads.

Which is what many people have been trying to say, but some will latch on to dem few thousand physical numbers from the UK threads.
I mean that percentage isnt rocket science here.

This you?

 

[Elios83]

Super poor physical sales?, hitting no.1?.
PC has zero physical sales, and there have been first party games on Xbox that have already hit 90% digital sales according to past UK Sales threads.

Yes physically it sold less than Dead Island 2 and less than all the other big games that have come out this year, including FFXVI that so many people wanted to label as a flop two months ago.
Hitting n.1 in UK means nothing per se.
Physical sales were poor.

About digital sales we'll see the impact that Gamepass had there when actual numbers are out.

 

[Stuart360]

This you?

Yep?.

Yes physically it sold less than Dead Island 2 and less than all the other big games that have come out this year, including FFXVI that so many people wanted to label as a flop two months ago.
Hitting n.1 in UK means nothing per se.
Physical sales were poor.

About digital sales we'll see the impact that Gamepass had there when actual numbers are out.

All physical sales are poor though, it still got to no. 1 though with zero PC physical sales and physical sales on a console that has had 90% digital sales on first party games already.

 

[jm89]

Yes physically it sold less than Dead Island 2 and less than all the other big games that have come out this year, including FFXVI that so many people wanted to label as a flop two months ago.
Hitting n.1 in UK means nothing per se.
Physical sales were poor.

About digital sales we'll see the impact that Gamepass had there when actual numbers are out.

Yeah looking at the report the week diablo 4 came out this is what chris said.

That means the new No.1 is Activision Blizzard's Diablo 4. The game didn't sell particularly big numbers at boxed retail, and its launch week sits well behind Zelda, Hogwarts Legacy, Star Wars Jedi: Survivor, Resident Evil 4 and Dead Island 2. However, as a game that's particularly popular on PC, the vast majority of sales will be via digital download stores

And this is from the monthly report

The game with the highest digital share was Diablo 4

From the report he never actually gave the digital/physical split either. It probably did really poorly physically.

 

[NEbeast]

I mean..what can I say to the guy who saw user pool on Reeee where people thought that game would have higher CCU on Steam and said "game must have under-performed for sure"
Brilliant

As I said. To say that XYZ game unperformed you must know what the expectations were.
I never expected Starfield to beat F4 CCU, because of new IP argument and because of PC Game Pass. So I'm not disappointed.
You are. But at least I'm not trying to pretend if I know if game met expectations of Microsoft of under-performed.

Surely the game under performed when the fan base over shot the meta critic score and CCU ? You guts where way off when hyping this game up. It clearly under performed. Sales can still be good while not delivering what people thought.