While this is true in theory, it's impossible to know where that line is.
Suggesting Roller Champions fizzled because we're at some GAAS threshold and the market can't support anymore seems wrong.
What percentage of gamers were one game gamers in 1985? <1%?
What percentage of gamers were one game gamers in 2005? ~5%?
What percentage of gamers are one game gamers today? ~20%?
I think that trajectory is going to continue over the next 10-20 years.
I'll take a crack at your two replies to me above. Of course I have no proof or stats. I dont even work in video games. But as a common guy here's my two cents why some games or franchises consistently do well, and some sink on day one.
In order to have long lasting success:
- Good game as a whole. Doesn't have to be a 96/100 metacritic score, but at least something reasonably decent like 75 or higher
- Good smooth graphics and gameplay. Again, doesn't have to be cutting edge visuals. In fact, many successful MP games arent even that great looking to me. They possibly have that family fun and colourful average joe look to it. Many are purposely dialed down and notch or two for sake of drawing in mainstream crowds and being able to run well on legacy consoles or half shitty PCs
- There's some kind of addictive loop to it. It can be being better at Rock Band, shooter matches with stats, EA League play, leveling up, lootbox drops you name it. The absolutely 100% opposite of what SP 10 hr games are
- There's some kind of regular update, sequel, content packs etc.... How many super successful MP games have gamers guessing at when the game gets fixes/content, or gets zero post launch support? Never. More DLC, more loot packs, the game is on Patch #16 v.2637. Always there to support fans with content, balancing and fixes
- The game has tons of variety in customization. Character classes, loadouts, pick your sports team etc...
- Easy to jump in and play. You can be the shittiest MP gamer ever, but the game will adjust/MM you to play with equally shitty players
- Core familiarity and interest. Going back to my buffet analogy. Gamers only have so much time and money to spend. Chances are pretty good, someone isn't going to invest tons of time into something they have no idea of or care of from the start. They'll stick to MP modern era shooters if they like it, and at a buffet if they like fried chicken, they'll probably take a few pieces even though they can eat it at home. You'd think someone would skip eating everything they eat at home and try new shit, but all I know is myself and every person I've eaten with, most people eat core stuff they like and then perhaps dabble with weird stuff they never tried.
There could be the greatest new game ever on Steam right now. But if it's some obscure genre or setting, its going to be tough to go up against shooters or sports or MOBA which gamers can understand and all the new games that come out are just a variation.
Something like Roller Champions supposedly on it's deathbed, how many gamers on Earth are begging to play that kind of game even if UBI had a global marketing deal with every media on the planet promoting the game in your face every time you turned on the TV or checked out your cellphone in the morning? Class ic arena shooters like UNreal and Halo are similar. Not enough core interest.