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[sonycowboy]

I honestly don't know. There's so many competing factors.

a) As of now PSP is KILLING the DS. Don't give me post launch excuses. It's now 5 months past launch and that excuse can only last for so long. At 5 months past launch, the DS was selling ~28k per week and the PSP sold 50k. And the 6th month, the DS's bottom completely dropped out. And they both had crappy post launch game releases.

b) ~GBA has always had MONSTER holidays which seems to indicate that Nintendo hardware might get a disproportionate percentage of sales during that time period.

c) Price: The DS will essentially be half the cost assuming the PSP doesn't drop it's price. That's a very tough sell when parents are buying kids games.

d) GBA Micro: At $99, it's going to steal some DS sales, but how much?

e) Games: DS clearly has the edge here with Nintendogs, Mario Kart, Sonic Rush, Mario Bros, Advance Wars, Animal Crossing vs the PSP's GTA:LCS, Madden 2006, Socom, Pursuit Force, & multiplatform titles (SSX, Marvel Imperfects, Xmen Legends, etc)

As of right now, I'd give the edge to the DS on the strength of b,c, & e above. But I could honestly see it go either way, with a big swing in either direction. I think PSP pricing will be what hurts it the most this holiday. IMO, Sony really should drop to $199 in October, but they'll still be at a disadvantag, price wise.

 

[Mrbob]

I can't answer this question until I see the July DS specific numbers.

 

[HomerSimpson-Man]

Hmmm....DS has several different flavors of Dogs gearing up and PSP has a GTA waiting in the wings.....the PSP has been selling well with total game sales already surpassing DS game sales......hmmm...I wager the PSP.

 

[SantaC]

PSP has been killing the DS without any special software. I think it's safe to say PSP takes the holidays too.

 

[Elios83]

I think that because of the games and movies lineup and the high tech appeal,PSP will win anyway over DS,people looking at the low price gift for their children will buy the GBA,but in my opinion Sony should start to sell the basic the pack at 199$.

 

[mj1108]

PSP has been killing the DS without any software.

Fixed.

 

[Tony HoTT]

I want to say the DS will come out, but if Sony brings some surprises and maybe the white PSP it could throw things off. If sales are slower than expected Nintendo could make some bundle deals or release new colors and make a killing as well.

It really is a tough call.

 

[HomerSimpson-Man]

Fixed.

Makes it funnier that PSP software sales already surpassed DS software sales.

 

[Mashing]

PSP has been killing the DS without any special software. I think it's safe to say PSP takes the holidays too.

If the New Super Mario Bros does come out in time for the holidays (not holding my breath) that right there is easily equal to the selling power of GTA on the PSP. It's too early to tell what system will be the ultimate winner of the holidays yet.

 

[jman2050]

Nintendo shoots themselves in the foot with their crappy launch lineup, which is probably the biggest reason the PSP is stomping all over it. nevertheless... *points to Mario 64 DS sales and upcoming Mario kart and SMB platforming game* when you've got Mario on your side, it's hard to lose the holidays.

of course, PSP has GTA. Seriously, this one is coming to the wire. The PSp has great allure and the UMD movies are undoubtedly pushing sales. however, the DS is much cheaper, and has many of its big titles coming.

 

[Tiktaalik]

In my opinion the DS holidy titles are much better than the PSP's, but the PSP is doing alot better than I thought it would so I wouldn't be surprised if it sells better than the DS this holiday season.

It's hard to say what GBA sales are going to be like. If there was a big Nintendo title coming out for it I'd say it would sell more than DS and PSP, but even with the micro, the platform is sort of winding down.

What's going on in the North American handheld market makes no sense to me so I have no idea what the actual sales outcome will be. I know what's going to happen in Japan however...

 

[Oblivion]

Once GTA arrives and if there's a price drop, the DS is as good as dead in the States. Not to mention when that FFVII thingy comes out for the PSP in the fall, Japan will follow shortly.

 

[argon]

With the price drop and the quality + quantity of games coming this year I have no doubt the DS will outsell the PSP this holiday season, unless GBmicro cannibalizes DS sales.

PSP is simply too expensive right now for the average handheld gamer. It needs a price drop to $199.99 before GTA comes out to maintain its sales dominance IMHO.

 

[Fatalah]

I thought the DS was selling better than the PSP so far...

 

[jman2050]

Not to mention when that FFVII thingy comes out for the PSP in the fall, Japan will follow shortly.

Yeah, you keep thinking that

 

[HomerSimpson-Man]

I thought the DS was selling better than the PSP so far...

If this was Japan, it would hold true, but it's the opposite in North America. A month's sales in NA would be like a week's sale in Japan for DS.

 

[Oblivion]

Yeah, you keep thinking that

Well, I'm just saying, since Squeenix owns Japan, and whoever they support, well, you know .

 

[Link316]

I'm going with the PSP, the Micro's gonna hurt DS sales badly

 

[koam]

Depends, what's coming out on UMD?

 

[jman2050]

Well, I'm just saying, since Squeenix owns Japan, and whoever they support, well, you know .

You talking about the wealth of games in development for the DS vs the single FF spinoff game and spinoff movie? yeah, the PSP has a lot of Squeenix support for sure.

 

[HomerSimpson-Man]

I'm going with the PSP, the Micro's gonna hurt DS sales badly

Is the Micro going to be $100+ for the US also?

 

[bycha]

DS just because of games.

 

[Oblivion]

You talking about the wealth of games in development for the DS vs the single FF spinoff game and spinoff movie? yeah, the PSP has a lot of Squeenix support for sure.

Out of curiosity, what games are Square providing for the DS besides FF: CC and some Dragonquest spinoff?

 

[Izzy]

the PSP's GTA:LCS, Madden 2006, Socom, Pursuit Force, & multiplatform titles (SSX, Marvel Imperfects, Xmen Legends, etc)

You forgot Virtua Tennis and Winning Eleven

 

[GG-Duo]

btw, where the hell is the Canadian DS price drop...?

 

[sonycowboy]

You forgot Virtua Tennis and Winning Eleven

Not going to be major factors in the US in sales. Although, VT is very high on my list for this year.

 

[Link316]

Is the Micro going to be $100+ for the US also?

Micro's $99, I'm also expecting Sony to either drop the price of the PSP bundle or release a $199 PSP

 

[BuzzJive]

The PSP's target audience may be spending their money on overpriced Xbox 360's for the holidays. Heck - the rumored iPod video might make the holidays and become a factor.

Nintendo always cleans house during the holidays. Release some other colors - blast out some games and the big Wi-Fi debut - and the DS is going to have a strong Christmas.

DS for the win.

 

[aerofx]

Well, I'm just saying, since Squeenix owns Japan, and whoever they support, well, you know .

What about Wonderswan? That didn't exactly take off with squeenix support.

 

[Miburou]

If Sony offers a basic pack for $199, and with the help of GTA LCS, I do think the PSP will outsell the DS this holiday season.

 

[sonycowboy]

If Sony offers a basic pack for $199, and with the help of GTA LCS, I do think the PSP will outsell the DS this holiday season.

I think it's very, very likely.

August's PSP sales will be telling. If it drops below 160k or so, expect the $199 PSP core system in late September, IMO.

 

[Oblivion]

What about Wonderswan? That didn't exactly take off with squeenix support.

I don't know anything about the Wonderswan except that it's some sort of handheld from Japan. What kind of games did Square provide? I'm not implying that just because they put their name on it, it will go gold. That's only half the formula. They would also have to provide the main games that people want, like the main FF or DQ series.

 

[Memles]

btw, where the hell is the Canadian DS price drop...?

Saw a DS labeled as $169.99 at Future Shop today, and the price drop is in the flyers for next week.

It will be very close this holiday season...if Nintendo gets out both Animal Crossing and Mario Kart, I think the DS has it. I doubt we'll see both, but even with one it will be a tight race.

 

[Orgen]

I believe that DS will win this holidays... as you say, GBA has always had spectacular holidays, and I think that DS will follow its way.

There's a lot of good software coming for the DS (Mario Kart will be the second "million seller" for the system, and games like AC DS and Nintendogs will sell very well IMO), and the price drop will help.

But if Sony drops the price of the PSP to 199$ in September/October (and the release of GTA:LCS), then PSP has possibilities to outsell the DS.

One question, will New Super Mario Bros be released in 2005? The release date for the game here in Europe is 2006, and I don't know the release date for the USA and Japan.

 

[JavyOO7]

Nintendogs will endusre that the DS lives a healthy life as a viable system.

 

[Wario64]

Nintendo DS will win. Nintendogs, Mario & Luigi DS, Mario Kart DS, Castlevania DS, Animal Crossing DS...need I go on? PSP was dead on arrival. Don't forget Nintendo Wi-Fi.

 

[thestopsign]

Here is my plan on software numbers for the next few months. If you can't tell. I'm bored right now. I just beat Tales of Symphonia and I'm looking for another long lasting game. To help me waste the rest of the Summer.

August

DS - Nintendogs - 125k, Madden 2006 - 45k, Advance Wars - 32k, Pac n' Roll - 10k = 212k for the new titles. Assuming that the hardware sales get a bump from the price drop and new games I would expect around the same sales from all the games already released. So that is another 280k. This puts the total around 592k total sales. Divided by 5 would be around 120k for hardware sales.

120k

PSP - Death Jr. - 30k, Midnight Club 3 - 40k, Coded Arms - 35k, Namco Museum - 15k = 120k. I would expect the hardware sales to decline down to 185k - 170k putting a 10% drop in overall software sales. So the total would be probably 480k or so.

175k

September

DS - Nintendogs - 140k, Yugioh Nightmare - 50k, Ultimate Spiderman - 30k, Advance Wars - 30k, Lunar Dragon Song - 10k, Lost in the Blue 5k = 265k. Since this is a 5 week month and the pricedrop and power of Nintendogs. I would say overall hardware sales will be a slight bit over 150k. Overall software sales will be around 675k or so.

155k

PSP - Madden 2006 - 90k, Burnout Legends - 60k, MidiEvil - 45k = 195k. I would see a small boost in hardware especially if Advent Children does come out for the PSP. I haven't heard much news on it. So with the good sales of Madden, and Burnout. I think the PSP sales will be somewhere from the 180k-195k (Maybe a little conservative here).

187k

So I really think the DS will pull closer in the next 2 months but not pass it quite yet. If Grand Theft Auto does get released in October-November range I could see the PSP up by the 800k mark but maybe a little less. The DS will get a big boost from going online. With Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, Mario & Luigi, Metroid Prime Hunters, and the possibilty of the New Super Mario Bros. I would see it fit to say the DS will be close to 500k-700k range.

Also I'm being a little careful about Madden on both the DS and PSP. I don't think it is going to have all that big impact on either portable. But I think that is because I just despise the game, and it's maker.

 

[mr tibbs]

I have been observing the sales of the DS and the PSP in the American market for some time now. If I had to take a stab at the holiday sales, I would lean slightly towards the DS, only because of the forthcoming game release schedule.

Slightly off topic, but interesting none the less, here in Australia, the PSP hasn’t been released yet (Sept. 1st), but I managed to look at and try out Need for Speed and one movie as a sample. Very impressive hardware.
The pricing could be a major factor for both systems down here, with the PSP to be released at $399 AU whilst the DS sells at $199 AU. (half price, cheaper at various outlets who do promotions).
$400 is a massive amount of money, particularly for a handheld, regardless of graphical ability and power. Should be interesting to observe the sales of both units in Australia.

 

[WrathOfOtaibah]

The winner is obviously clear: PSP

Pokémon will help close the gap but I don't think it will be enough to overtake the PSP or even come within a couple hundred thousand units.

 

[AniHawk]

It'll be the PSP. The DS will become the handheld gamecube.

 

[Comfort_Eagle]

I would guess PSP for no real reason except that if i was going to buy a handheld this fall that what i would buy. But im not buying either so it doesnt matter.

 

[Link316]

I think it's very, very likely.

August's PSP sales will be telling. If it drops below 160k or so, expect the $199 PSP core system in late September, IMO.

I think it'll happen alot sooner, it'll be pretty stupid for Sony to just let the DS go unchecked and pull away after closing the gap to 100K-200K

 

[Amir0x]

I think NDS will outsell it slightly, unless the marketing for GTA:LCS is completely over the top.

 

[michael000]

Hard to predict, it's a pretty large price gap and we have nothing to reference this against since these are handhelds we're talking about. I'd imagine it's going to be near 50/50 and whoever comes out on top won't do it by more than a 5% margin.

Been saying it for ages but the best package Sony could put out for the holiday season to sell PSP's would be to drop the value pack and offer a GTA:LCS bundle at $249.99. If they do that i could see them winning by by something like 60/40.

 

[heidern]

a) As of now PSP is KILLING the DS. Don't give me post launch excuses. It's now 5 months past launch and that excuse can only last for so long. At 5 months past launch, the DS was selling ~28k per week and the PSP sold 50k. And the 6th month, the DS's bottom completely dropped out. And they both had crappy post launch game releases.

No no no. You need to look at monthly sales in the context of overall sales. Fact is, the DS is still ahead by ~200,000 units. The psp is not KILLING the DS, it is still playing catch up. Sure it's doing a good(great) job, but then so was the N64 which actually overtook the psone back in the day. The DS bottom dropped out the 6th month, with only Death Jr for the month who's to say the same won't happen with the psp? After all, sales are down significantly this month, with even less games released, another month firther from launch and a DS price cut sales could be down big time this month.

Say the psp sales are 160K(40K a week) for August, the DS with long awaited software(Nintendogs/Advance Wars) and a price cut could be up to 150K say. So in a months time we could have two systems pretty much on par in monthly sales, but psp on a downwards trend and behind by around 200K units. So who would be doing better then?

The battle is still very much being played out I think. I think Madden is being overestimated, it's already out for every other system. I think it's just the general question of how much people want a portable version of their playstation library at $250 rather than specific "ports" causing surges in demand. But GTA could be really huge for the system. I also think people underestimate Mario Kart. MK Advance is over 2 million, with this new one also being online it really could be the killer app for the DS this Christmas.

d) GBA Micro: At $99, it's going to steal some DS sales, but how much?

Actually, I think the GBM with it's premium pricing could detract from the psp just as much or more as it does from the DS. Really, the GBA won this month in sales. The GBA GBM combo could smash the DS/psp challenge this Christmas. That would truly be one for the history books.

Oh yeah, my prediction(depending on the outcome for August) and taking account that Nintendo hardware does crazy increases coming to Christmas. Either:
Gameboy >>>>>>>>>DS>>>>>psp
Gameboy>>>>>>>psp>>DS

 

[Flakster99]

If we have learned anything, it is to never underestimate Nintendo, especially in the hand held department, and especially during the 4th quarter when they net the majority of their sales. I think some of you are doing just that.

DS just because of games.

Nice and simple, agreed.

 

[sonycowboy]

I think it'll happen alot sooner, it'll be pretty stupid for Sony to just let the DS go unchecked and pull away after closing the gap to 100K-200K

When did they close the gap? Who sold 100k?

 

[Servizio]

NGage.

Because I believe in magic ponies.

 

[antipode]

I think the dark horse for the PSP this winter is going to be the Neopets game. It targets the same market as Nintendogs but it seems to have a pretty big existing userbase (enough for McDonald's tie-ins) and a nice built-in marketing channel (the Neopets website.)

 

[Frankfurter]

Not to mention when that FFVII thingy comes out for the PSP in the fall, Japan will follow shortly.

Good joke... :lol

Out of curiosity, what games are Square providing for the DS besides FF: CC and some Dragonquest spinoff?

Out of curiosity, what games are Square providing for the PSP besides a UMD movie(errr..., games) and a FF VII Spinoff that will release in 2006 in Japan?

The only SQ game already released on the DS is Egg Monster Hero. But there are about half a dozen games announced(FF III Port/Remake, DQ Slime Mori Mori, DQ Monster Series, FF: CC, New Mana Title etc.). It's quite clear that SQ primarily supports the DS.

To return to the topic: I would say the DS definitely has a chance of winning from Oct-Dec, although PSP has GTA. The DS gets a really wide range of great titles and I think it deserves to sell well.