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Is the Switch another Wii, or will their next console also be as successful or close?

Will the Switch be a temporary success like the Wii?

  • Yes

    Votes: 42 29.0%
  • No

    Votes: 103 71.0%

  • Total voters
    145

Eddie-Griffin

Gold Member
Nintendo created a portable hybrid to unify their development teams, fix the market decline initiated by the 3DS, and included a dock to substitute dropping out of the home console market with the ill fated Wii U, attempting to bring their entire audience together under one roof. The Switch also brought back Wii esque motion controls, and despite weaker hardware, were able to get a fair amount of downgraded but serviceable console ports its earlier years, some even from western developers though they aren't so common these days.

Nintendo's plan succeeded, people went out to buy Switches just like the Wii minus the shortages. The Switch didn't start selling at a surprise breakneck pace like the Wii, but ended up gradually outpacing it more and more, month by month, leading it to meet the 111 million sales milestone just a couple weeks ago.

But is the Switch a sign of long term success for Nintendo's hardware, or like the Wii and DS, is it just a one meta knight stand? A splash in the pan? Bottle in a lightning?

We will need a few more quarterly reports to be sure, but already it appears that Switch sales are pulling back harder and faster than anticipated. it's hard to know the trend this early since it's still selling at a high number, but in a couple more quarters we should have enough data from Nintendo's financial meetings to see if the Switch is going to pull back hard and fast like the Wii did, or if the Switch will continue to sell for a longer period of time and this is a short term pullback.

But so far, the trend is similar to what happened with the Wii in late 2010, and I'm not completely writing off that the Switch isn't just another temporary success like the Wii unless the current trend changes. When it happened with the Wii it also didn't seem like anything was going to happen, but then out of nowhere came rapid deceleration, so you never know with Nintendo consoles 100% which way they will go coming off success.
 

jorgejjvr

Member
No. Portable gaming is on a rise right now, actually usable, and not a random fad that lasts for awhile. This usability won't go away, at least not in the near future.

With the Wii, they didn't know what a successor should look like. With the switch 2....all they need is a more powerful switch, with a couple of upgrades and done, people will buy in droves
 
As long as Nintendo doesn't call it the Switch U it will be fine. The Wii U was a victim of bad naming convention - atrocious naming convention. In that light I'm surprised that people never attritbute bad naming convention to the Xbox One's terrible sales in addition to numerous other factors.

I hate every single console name given to the xbox post the 360 era. It's like a bunch of clowns at MS going all in on the worst names possible. Xbox One? Xbox One X? Xbox Series X? Xbox Series S? MS should fire everyone in the PR department who thought any of those names were a good idea. Xbox Durango and Xbox Scorpio were by far better names for the systems.
 
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Woopah

Member
The data we have already shows that the sales curve of the the Wii and the Switch are nothing alike. The questions of "will it fall off like the Wii" has been answered and the answer is no.

Now whether Nintendo can translate that success onto the next platform is down to them. They certainly have it in them to completely fuck it up. But I would say they are in a much better situation this time:
  • When they were preparing for Wii U, Nintendo was working on 4 different game pipelines (Wii, Wii U, DS, 3DS). When the successor comes Nintendo will only be working on 2 pipelines (or even only 1 if they go for a period of cross gen). If you compare the line-up for Wii in its 5th year and the line up for Switch in its 5th year, its night and day.
  • Third party support for Switch is moving in the right direction, at the end f the Wii's life third party support was moving in the wrong direction
  • Nvida's DLSS technology will help Nintendo continue to get some third party support
We'll need to know more about Switch 2 before coming to a stronger conclusion, but the signs at least are positive.
 
With the success of the Switch, I don't see how Nintendo can ever again release a traditional console. The portable model is the way to go.
 

blacktout

Member
Holy shit, almost every sentence of the original post contains disingenuous spin or outright untruths. I'd elaborate, but this is standard operating procedure for this poster and I know there's no point.

Edit: Not sure if the title was changed by the OP or a mod, but this new one is much better (and a much fairer question), though the poll question is still pretty oddly worded.
 
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64bitmodels

Reverse groomer.
With the switch 2....all they need is a more powerful switch, with a couple of upgrades and done, people will buy in droves
i mean, people said that about the Wii and yet they ended up making the Wii U.
I doubt they won't just make a switch 2 though, seeing as how this is post iwata Nintendo (switch was a concept that he came up with) so without the man who was coming up with all the crazy console concepts, Nintendo might as well stick with the console that has made them the most money in their entire lifetime
 

MrA

Member
Holy shit, almost every sentence of the original post contains disengenous spin or outright untruths. I'd elaborate, but this is standard operating procedure for this poster and I know there's no point.
Considering the wording of the poll question is gloriously bad is it surprising?
But will the switch's successor succed I'll go with an easy yes, will it do as well as the switch probably not, covid probably added a direct 10-15 million units to the switch's hardware sales and probably strengthened the tail
But I think the switch 2 will have better 3rd party support if Nintendo isn't totally nuts with keeping cost/power down
A 1-1.8 tf portable and a 2 to 3.8 tf docked gpu , a good cpu, and plenty of ram and I think it will see strong support from 3rd parties
 

Crzy1

Member
If they just update the hardware, call it Switch 2 so there isn't confusion about what it is and make it backward compatible, I think it would be just as, if not more, successful. Nintendo probably won't do something that logical, though. Gotta find a way to make people quadruple-dip for the same games.
 
They pretty much own the dedicated handheld market. So I believe it’s certain we get another iteration of Switch. The real question is whether or not they sell a premium, standalone console as a third option.
 

Eddie-Griffin

Gold Member
Holy shit, almost every sentence of the original post contains disingenuous spin or outright untruths. I'd elaborate, but this is standard operating procedure for this poster and I know there's no point.

Edit: Not sure if the title was changed by the OP or a mod, but this new one is much better (and a much fairer question), though the poll question is still pretty oddly worded.

The thread title was never changed.

You jumped in here kicking and screaming about nothing.
 

blacktout

Member
The nintendo pattern is proven when it comes to consoles.

I keep seeing people talking about this pattern, but I'm not sure what they mean. Nintendo's console sales history looks more like a random walk to me:

NES - massive success, dominates console market
SNES - less successful than the NES, still market leader
N64 - less successful than the SNES, outsold considerably by the PS1
GC - even less successful than the N64, completely eclipsed by the PS2
Wii - Nintendo's best-selling home console prior to the Switch
Wii U - Nintendo's worst-selling home console ever
Switch - Nintendo's best-selling home console* ever

If there's a pattern here, it's that Nintendo was in steady decline until the Wii released, and has been volatile as hell since then. Unless you're just looking at the transition from the Wii to the Wii U alone and calling that a "pattern," I don't see how this tells us anything at all about what's going to happen next gen.

Adding handhelds doesn't really tell you much more, since Nintendo has been the market leader (sometimes by default, sometimes facing competition) in that space for every generation since the OG Game Boy.

* - Or not, or sorta, depending on your definition of the term.
 

Klayzer

Member
 

8BiTw0LF

Gold Member
Switch Pro or 2 will be a newer Nvidia ARM-based console.
Nintendo can ditch the whole generation stuff and release a new version Switch every 3-4 years - only-handheld, better screen and so on (minor upgrades). Cost efficient for everyone.

One generation that just keeps on giving - both handheld and stationary.
Easy to develop for and extremely affordable development kits.
 
NES - massive success, dominates console market
SNES - less successful than the NES, still market leader
N64 - less successful than the SNES, outsold considerably by the PS1
GC - even less successful than the N64, completely eclipsed by the PS2
Wii - Nintendo's best-selling home console prior to the Switch
Wii U - Nintendo's worst-selling home console ever
Switch - Nintendo's best-selling home console* ever

This is an obvious pattern right here imo...its not like its a coincidence that after a successful console the one following up wasn't as successful. GC was a failure even tho it was a superb console, WII was a success so they made the Wii U trying to capitalize off the wii brand, then the switch was a success. If the switch 2 is just a beefier switch I can see it not doing as well due to the fact its iterative which doesnt do as well. Similar to ds to 3ds...doesnt mean its a failure just not as successful.
 

CS Lurker

Member
It's natural sales to start slowing down. But I don't believe it will be like it was with the wii. Switch's customer base is different, the console selling point is different, and Nintendo's strategy is also different. They will continue to support the console releasing appealing titles in its 6th and 7th years. They have every single internal resource working for it.

The transition to the next hardware will be really smooth, for both Switch's owners and those interested to buy what's next day one.

About sales of the next hardware, I believe it will sell more than the 3ds, but less then the current hardware. And that's ok with the first party software selling the way it's selling.
 

Robb

Gold Member
I’ll vote no on this just on my gut feeling right now.

To me, the Switch’s gimmick feels more consistent/appreciated and easier for Nintendo to iterate on compared to the Wii’s. Same with its audience, which feels very different and a lot less casual.

If they make a Switch 2 I think they’ll be golden and that a lot of people will be happy to upgrade. If they go bananas and just come out with something entirely different/new it’s a lot harder to know where they’ll end up.
 
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FStubbs

Member
This is an obvious pattern right here imo...its not like its a coincidence that after a successful console the one following up wasn't as successful. GC was a failure even tho it was a superb console, WII was a success so they made the Wii U trying to capitalize off the wii brand, then the switch was a success. If the switch 2 is just a beefier switch I can see it not doing as well due to the fact its iterative which doesnt do as well. Similar to ds to 3ds...doesnt mean its a failure just not as successful.
You have to ignore the NES and SNES - two of their most iconic consoles, both of which were "winners" - to create this pattern. SNES outsold N64, so you have to go by what blacktout blacktout posted - there is no pattern for their consoles om terms of sales post-Wii.
 
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LordOfChaos

Member
The next Switch is a Switch

The momentum is still kind of nuts and people are still buying this underclocked TX1 from 2015. They'll just carry that forward with improvements on that for a while to come, considering they haven't even bumped it up yet.
 

Aldric

Member
We don't even know what their next hardware will be. There's a very good chance they'll release a Switch 2 or a Switch Pro, whatever you want to call it, that'll still be counted as being part of the Switch family like the Lite or the Oled model. If they do that I don't see how it could possibly be a failure like the Wii U was. In fact there's a very strong possibility they never make a new concept ever again and keep on iterating on the Switch brand, just with more powerful models or models with different features.
 
You have to ignore the NES and SNES - two of their most iconic consoles, both of which were "winners" - to create this pattern. SNES outsold N64, so you have to go by what blacktout blacktout posted - there is no pattern for their consoles om terms of sales post-Wii.
I'm not ignoring it, but I'm looing at the past two decades since that more of the modern era.
 

blacktout

Member
This is an obvious pattern right here imo...its not like its a coincidence that after a successful console the one following up wasn't as successful. GC was a failure even tho it was a superb console, WII was a success so they made the Wii U trying to capitalize off the wii brand, then the switch was a success. If the switch 2 is just a beefier switch I can see it not doing as well due to the fact its iterative which doesnt do as well. Similar to ds to 3ds...doesnt mean its a failure just not as successful.

You have to ignore the NES and SNES - two of their most iconic consoles, both of which were "winners" - to create this pattern. SNES outsold N64, so you have to go by what blacktout blacktout posted - there is no pattern for their consoles om terms of sales post-Wii.

Yeah, the transition from N64 to GameCube isn't really at all comparable to the transition from Wii to Wii U. The N64 was already a (sales) failure relative to its predecessor and the GameCube didn't suffer a particularly significant drop from the N64. The difference in unit sales between the N64 and GameCube is just over ten million units (~33 million vs. ~22 million). The difference between the N64 and the SNES is greater than that (~49 million vs ~33 million). So is the difference between the NES and SNES (~62 million vs ~49 million), though it's close. Meanwhile, the Wii U sold 88 million units less than the Wii (~102 million vs. ~14 million). There's just no comparison here. It's not a comparable situation.
 
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FStubbs

Member
I'm not ignoring it, but I'm looing at the past two decades since that more of the modern era.
That's arbitrary. I mean, I could arbitrarily pick 2000 and say:

Gamecube - beta version of Wii hardware. Sold poorly.
Wii - sold well
Wii U - beta version of Switch hardware. Sold poorly.
Switch - sold well

Now the above is nonsense, because you can't arbitrarily ignore their past consoles.
 
No, because their portables don't fail and they're not interested in stationary consoles anymore. They will keep making (dockable) portables and keep winning.
 

Ezquimacore

Banned
With switch being a beast and the current market where every three months there's some kind of powerful handheld, Nintendo is definitely going to release a new version. But that's just me thinking narrowly, Nintendo could surprise us with a cyber dildo and when you put it inside your cheeks it transport you to NintendoLand 2.
 
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That's arbitrary. I mean, I could arbitrarily pick 2000 and say:

Gamecube - beta version of Wii hardware. Sold poorly.
Wii - sold well
Wii U - beta version of Switch hardware. Sold poorly.
Switch - sold well

Now the above is nonsense, because you can't arbitrarily ignore their past consoles.
Huh, I said the pattern tends to be "good, bad, good, bad" if you start at the NES to snes its more out an outlier given the previous 20 years. you saying its merely a coincidence that this pattern has seemingly happened for the past 20 years?
 
Yeah, the transition from N64 to GameCube isn't really at all comparable to the transition from Wii to Wii U. The N64 was already a (sales) failure relative to its predecessor and the GameCube didn't suffer a particularly significant drop from the N64. The difference in unit sales between the N64 and GameCube is just over ten million units (~33 million vs. ~22 million). The difference between the N64 and the SNES is greater than that (~49 million vs ~33 million). So is the difference between the NES and SNES (~62 million vs ~49 million), though it's close. Meanwhile, the Wii U sold 88 million units less than the Wii (~102 million vs. ~14 million). There's just no comparison here. It's not a comparable situation.
I appreciate this breakdown. I do think there is some merit that due to Nintendo's form of releasing console being more iterative than marketing as a major upgrade or going for more power like the rest of them it leaves them a bit more prone to a lack of need for consumers feeling like they need to upgrade.
 

Fbh

Gold Member
I don't see how they can fail as long as the next system is straightforward successor to the Switch.

I think the biggest difference between the Switch and Wii is that the Switch has had a much more sustained success.

With the Wii it felt like everyone rushed to get one early on but for most people it never became more than a Wii Sports, Mario Kart and Wii Fit machine.
They had to change things because there was never much sustained interest in the Wii beyond that initial sales pitch. The problem with a console that "even your grandma will buy" is that your grandma is ok just owning 2 games and probably won't feel the need to spend $350 upgrading to a more powerful version.

Switch has had stronger hardware sales and unlike the Wii it has continuously and consistently released great selling software. Skyward sword HD matched the lifetime sales of the Wii release in just 2 months.
 

GigaBowser

The bear of bad news
We will need a few more quarterly reports to be sure, but already it appears that Switch sales are pulling back harder and faster than anticipated. it's hard to know the trend this early since it's still selling at a high number, but in a couple more quarters we should have enough data from Nintendo's financial meetings to see if the Switch is going to pull back hard and fast like the Wii did, or if the Switch will continue to sell for a longer period of time and this is a short term pullback.
Switch is in it's 6th year and selling faster than Playstation 4's best year and has the best sales for year 6 on the market of any platform ever.

Wii completely cratered in its 4th year.

I don't entirely understand why because third party support is still anaemic and Nintendo's offerings have been pretty meh

but yeah,

you have no idea what you're talking about
 

64bitmodels

Reverse groomer.
tbh peoples spending habits with nintendo consoles arent like how they are with phones, more people dont tend to buy the second iteration of a handheld portable console- look at the DS and 3ds. From one of the most successful tech products of all time, to a decently selling nintendo console outpaced by its predecessor, the wii, and now the switch.
maybe that's true with playstations, but not for nintendo consoles. with nintendos systems, each home console they made sold less and less and less until they innovated with the wii.
 

BlackTron

Member
i mean, people said that about the Wii and yet they ended up making the Wii U.
I doubt they won't just make a switch 2 though, seeing as how this is post iwata Nintendo (switch was a concept that he came up with) so without the man who was coming up with all the crazy console concepts, Nintendo might as well stick with the console that has made them the most money in their entire lifetime

Wii U was not just a better Wii though. It was a bizarre frankenstein console that used the same name and was backwards compatible.

It was completely different from Wii though.
 

supernova8

Member
If we consider that:
1) Nintendo basically consolidated their game development teams into one team
and
2) Nintendo likely knows its strength is in handhelds

It seems highly unlikely that they would move away from the hybrid handheld model (ie the underlying Switch design).

Plus, history has demonstrated that Nintendo has never successfully competed directly with Playstation and Xbox. They tried with N64 - failed. Gamecube - failed. Wii U failed. Not saying there weren't some absolutely stellar games but from a purely business/commercial perspective, they were abject failures.
 

Astral Dog

Member
Nobody knows, i have no idea. Not even Nintendo lol

However we can notice that unlike the Wii, the Switch is appealing to core gamers as much as casuals, a successor could be the first Nintendo home console that carries its full audience to the next generation, like Sony has been doing for many years(besides struggling a little on PS3 at first) with PlayStation.

At least, it has the potential to be, could also fail to retain the audience, Nintendo is a wild card

For now im willing to bet the Switch is not just "another Wii" since they are actually very different systems, the Switch gimmick and branding is more appealing to gamers
 
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93xfan

Member
If they put Mario kart 9 on it near release, make it noticeably more powerful, fully BC, and also don’t try to shake things up too much, they have a real shot of it being very popular.
 

IDKFA

Gold Member
Depends on what the console is.

If the console is a true successor to the Switch (Switch 2, Super Switch etc), has the same hybrid function and is fully backwards compatible with current Switch games, then it'll be a sure fire success.
 

Ozriel

Member
There is no possible scenario where their next gen console is a failure.
Switch 2 will be backwards compatible and will have enough power to ensure they get ports of next gen games for the entire generation. That’s a winning combination.

We should be looking at something capable of pushing PS4 level visuals, with a more powerful CPU than the PS4.
 

Robb

Gold Member
There is no possible scenario where their next gen console is a failure.
Eh.. Out of MS, Sony, and Nintendo - Nintendo is probably the only one where that scenario actually sounds plausible.

I remember reading similar things before WiiU happened.

Hopefully we’re looking at more of DS to 3DS type situation here though.
 
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