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[John Dunbar]

There would need to be some big agricultural changes. Humans currently consume more than the Earth is able to produce.

not according to world food programme.

 

[entremet]

Most first world countries haven't seen a significant increase of their populations. It's all about the efficieny of the working group.

Immigration helps for one and they're not losing as much as Japan is.

Nevertheless, I see more consolidation in the future. We're already becoming more urbanized.

 

[Frozenprince]

This problem isn't going away in a generation. There are DEEPLY rooted cultural mores that are very anti-women and very outdated. These aren't easy fixes if people cared, but people in Japan for the most part are incredibly politically and socially apathetic.

This is going to get much worse before it gets better. But it will, in time, get better. Because it has too.

 

[HK-47]

This problem isn't going away in a generation. There are DEEPLY rooted cultural mores that are very anti-women and very outdated. These aren't easy fixes if people cared, but people in Japan for the most part are incredibly politically and socially apathetic.

This is going to get much worse before it gets better. But it will, in time, get better. Because it has too.

Its not like Japan hasnt drastically restructured their society in a relatively short time frame before. I just dont know what is the direction.

 

[Professor Renegade]

Not surprising given their immigration policies.

 

[Steel]

Not surprising given their immigration policies.

Japan really needs an Anti-Trump.

 

[WolfeTone]

This world could easily support 30 billion people

The stat is something like in the US, 97% of Americans live on 3% of the land America has.

The world isn't even close to overpopulation.

In terms of physical space, sure the world isn't close to being overpopulated. However at the rate that we're consuming resources, there's no way that the planet can support an ever growing population, despite what that'll mean for social security programs and the world economy. Even removing non-renewable energy sources from the equation, think about how much farm land would be needed to produce enough food to feed 30 billion people. The earth's oceans are already over-fished and farming has a pretty negative impact on the environment already.

Interesting trend for Japan though. I wonder if this means they'll take a more open approach towards migration.

 

[Bleepey]

Nigeria is a good example why the population growth must be stopped.

Economic growth will hopefully curb that shit.

 

[Valhelm]

That's the problem, don't you think? It certainly shouldn't be one or the other. It's not in any other 1st world country that I can think of. They need to fix their culture and attitudes towards such things while they still have time. Shit standards, outdated customs and attitudes will sink them at this pace.

Nah, this is true in every nation in which women have the social power to hold jobs. One of the main reasons why Muslim European families tend to have more children is because the mothers rarely work.

Governments should ensure a stable birthrate by subsidizing childbirth for working women and mandating maternal leave.

Economic growth will hopefully curb that shit.

It's already happening, actually.

 

[Liha]

Why is it a good example?

The poverty rises (around 70%) in Nigeria and the economy is growing only because of the growing population. There is also an ongoing conflict with terrorist groups and it would end up in a disaster if 10-100 million refugees would come to Europe. Nigeria is the next Lebanon, not tomorrow but in 25-50 years.

 

[GoutPatrol]

It's happening everywhere is East Asia. The rural areas become depopulated while the major cities keep growing from migration. Many rural areas are already economically devastated.

 

[KillerMan91]

It's honestly one of the most interesting stories of our current time. Makes you wonder if it's just a human reaction to overpopulation. Makes you wonder if it'll spread.

That's the thing about playing Persona 4. That cute little town of Inaba you play in likely won't exist in the near future. That tension between rural and urban is very interesting.

It's already happening in pretty much every developed country if you exclude immigration. For example Germany has had declining population since 1970s if you exclude immigration. Japan really isn't as big outlier in this as most people think.

 

[PdotMichael]

Immigration helps for one and they're not losing as much as Japan is.

Nevertheless, I see more consolidation in the future. We're already becoming more urbanized.

It's all about workforce productivity.

The fact that less people are able to support more people isn't really a new thing in the world. Germany for example was capable of supporting 3 times so many people in less than 100 years (1900 to 1990) - the same happened in most countries.

Immigrations can help to increase the workforce productivity but there are limits because of the already high and increasing level of automation and the Japanese language and culture.

 

[HardRojo]

Honestly, the goals should be

1) Getting radical life extension done by 2050
2) Gradually starting to wind down sexual reproduction as our main method of propagation and getting cloning facilities set up that will operate at a replacement level (which should be quite low once we get #1 accomplished).

Ideally both of these would be well accomplished by the end of the century.

But Japan could probably go ahead with the cloning facilities today. They could probably be up and running by 2020 if they put some money into the project.

I don't know if I like the idea of cloning people as a means to populate the planet. It just sounds weird.

 

[Frozenprince]

Its not like Japan hasnt drastically restructured their society in a relatively short time frame before. I just dont know what is the direction.

They had impetus to do so before though. The apathy within the culture itself right now really can't be emphasized enough. The working culture isn't going anywhere for a while.

Migration is not the solution, it'd take 3 generations before people even warmed to the idea.

 

[Sakura]

This is a trend that will affect many western countries.
'open the borders' is an easy thing to say, but I don't really think it would stop the declining population.
There will be European countries facing population decline too, even with more immigration than a country like Japan.

 

[Tempy]

Hmm, what is Japan doing in regards to:
* Maternity/Paternity leave and job security
* Curbing overtime/overworking culture
* Encouraging more part time jobs so that there's always a parent available to take care of the kids.
* Daycare centers

What are their plans to increase the birthrate?

 

[Izuna]

While a constant decline is a problem, isn't this a good thing as far as beating overpopulation goes?

EDIT: Maybe people will finally get to live in homes that aren't box sized

 

[Alchemy]

Need a combination of immigration and changing your economic system to be less abusive towards workers so they have more time and money to establish families.

 

[Paracelsus]

Need a combination of immigration and changing your economic system to be less abusive towards workers so they have more time and money to establish families.

If you fixed the latter you wouldn't need the former, but the former is much cheaper.

 

[PdotMichael]

This is a trend that will affect many western countries.
'open the borders' is an easy thing to say, but I don't really think it would stop the declining population.
There will be European countries facing population decline too, even with more immigration than a country like Japan.

The problem isn't losing total population but workfoce population something that also happen in many other countries.
Even China just hit the peak of its workforce population.

 

[FtsH]

without immigration US probably is showing the same trend. People in developed economy can not afford or are not willing to have children.

 

[psynergylover]

Don't worry Japan gaf, I will do my best to increase population; just need some red bull, some zinc tablets, and some smooth jazz

And a plane ticket would be nice

 

[FtsH]

Need a combination of immigration and changing your economic system to be less abusive towards workers so they have more time and money to establish families.

Not just that. This is a culture in every developed region that people tend to pursue more personal development rather than traditional family. People want to enjoy young single adult life style for their whole life.

 

[jwhit28]

without immigration US probably is showing the same trend. People in developed economy can not afford or are not willing to have children.

But in the US isn't the end goal still to move to the suburbs and have a few kids? I know I've seen a few polls posted in a thread here where it's taking us millennials longer to enter the housing market but people polled still saw themselves living the old fashion American dream eventually.

 

[Sakura]

without immigration US probably is showing the same trend. People in developed economy can not afford or are not willing to have children.

And even the families that want to have kids will often just have 1.

But in the US isn't the end goal still to move to the suburbs and have a few kids? I know I've seen a few polls posted in a thread here where it's taking us millennials longer to enter the housing market but people polled still saw themselves living the old fashion American dream eventually.

I'm pretty sure birth rates in the US have been a bit below the replacement level for a few years now, but for the US immigration is still big enough to overcome it.

 

[Miletius]

This is a trend that will affect many western countries.
'open the borders' is an easy thing to say, but I don't really think it would stop the declining population.
There will be European countries facing population decline too, even with more immigration than a country like Japan.

This. Many modern economies will face this problem eventually. In some places immigration is enough to keep the population stable or growing for the time being but eventually things will slow down for all modern ecnonomies.

It's unclear to me if overall this is a bad or good thing though. Obviously the implications for social programs based on continued growth will not be sustainable, but that doesn't mean there isn't a workable solution somewhere. Meanwhile, global population on a downward trend might help the environment.

 

[LegendofJoe]

And even the families that want to have kids will often just have 1.

I'd be all about this plan, but my wife wants another one

On topic though population decline is a good thing. It will force us to value things in a more healthy, sustainable manner. In particular the focus of economic policy in developed countries should be efficiency, not growth.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

Japan isn't even in the top 100 countries for equality for women, so it's super dangerous to even take a break from your career as a woman in Japan to be pregnant, since the "work forever" culture is amplified for them if they take time off.

Well something's gotta give.

If they're not alarmed enough to take action by these numbers, why should we be. If they want to dig a hole and bury themselves, so be it.

If they do want to change, however: Have good dick, will travel.

 

[PdotMichael]

This. Many modern economies will face this problem eventually. In some places immigration is enough to keep the population stable or growing for the time being but eventually things will slow down for all modern ecnonomies.

It's unclear to me if overall this is a bad or good thing though. Obviously the implications for social programs based on continued growth will not be sustainable, but that doesn't mean there isn't a workable solution somewhere. Meanwhile, global population on a downward trend might help the environment.

Makes me wonder to see some examples of social programs based on continued growth although the relative amount of people who need support increased several times in the last 100 years without that the economies collapsed.

 

[Jack Remington]

I don't know if I like the idea of cloning people as a means to populate the planet. It just sounds weird.

Maybe not Star Wars style clones so much as mass production of test tube babies. Like you could mix up the genetic material so you're still getting different humans, not lots of copies of the same person.

It would require some reshuffling of the nation's education system, and you'd need to build housing facilities and hire a bunch of caretakers for the new children. Honestly none of these details seem particularly difficult to overcome. Better than letting their population drop by 50%.

 

[Sakura]

This. Many modern economies will face this problem eventually. In some places immigration is enough to keep the population stable or growing for the time being but eventually things will slow down for all modern ecnonomies.

It's unclear to me if overall this is a bad or good thing though. Obviously the implications for social programs based on continued growth will not be sustainable, but that doesn't mean there isn't a workable solution somewhere. Meanwhile, global population on a downward trend might help the environment.

I think countries like Italy, Greece, and Portugal are already showing the same problems.
I believe Greece and Portugal are already declining too, and may have lower birthrates than Japan.
Italy has been relying a lot on immigration but I don't think it is enough any more.

 

[Slavik81]

It's already happening in pretty much every developed country if you exclude immigration. For example Germany has had declining population since 1970s if you exclude immigration. Japan really isn't as big outlier in this as most people think.

Japan's mostly an outlier because they have basically no immigration and they don't want any either.

 

[kmfdmpig]

Future demographics will be brutal in both Japan and China. Economically it is obviously very difficult to get by when the population is elderly and needs a lot of support and the number of young workers are low.

In both cases it seems to me that poor policies contributed to the problem. In Japan the high debt levels before this becomes a major problem will limit what they can do. The lack of immigration also makes the problem worse. The policy of most people retiring at 60 (whether they want to do so or not) also makes this worse as they could use more workers and fewer retired people.

In China the one child policy will be a major contributor to this issue as there will be a major portion of a few generations missing.

 

[Moronwind]

In undeveloped countries children are your retirement insurance, in developed countries they're a burden.

And even the families that want to have kids will often just have 1.

From what I've heard that's not really an issue, at least not in Japan. The problem is the large number of people who stay single for life, if you were to cut them out of the equation you'd have a stable fertility rate of 2.0 children per woman.

 

[Sakura]

On topic though population decline is a good thing. It will force us to value things in a more healthy, sustainable manner. In particular the focus of economic policy in developed countries should be efficiency, not growth.

I'm not really sure I'd say it's a good thing.
You're going to have a larger and larger elderly population, supported by a smaller and smaller workforce.

From what I've heard that's not really an issue, at least not in Japan. The problem is the large number of people who stay single for life, if you were to cut them out of the equation you'd have a stable fertility rate of 2.0 children per woman.

Many of the people I've encountered in Japan who do have kids, will very often have just 1. Or at least that's what I've noticed. Maybe two at most. And I believe a replacement rate is considered 2.1 not 2.

 

[PdotMichael]

I'm not really sure I'd say it's a good thing.
You're going to have a larger and larger elderly population, supported by a smaller and smaller workforce.

So what happened in the last 100 years everywhere?

People shouldn't forget that a lot of the increasement of the total population is just a result of people also getting older.

 

[LegendofJoe]

I'm not really sure I'd say it's a good thing.
You're going to have a larger and larger elderly population, supported by a smaller and smaller workforce.

Robots will fill the gap

 

[Zophar]

There would need to be some big agricultural changes. Humans currently consume more than the Earth is able to produce.

More like lots of scarcities are virtual creations of market economies where you have a shitton of resources getting funneled to a wealthy minority who wastes them uncontrollably, while billions get by on an incredibly small percentage of the resources produced globally every year.

We don't really have an agricultural/production problem so much as we have an ridiculously unequal resource allocation problem.

 

[CrazyDude]

If Nigeria can keep it together, they are going to be a giant force in the future.

True, but eventually every country that will have a developed economy will face the same problem, if thing continue in this trend. Hell, there are countries that are not super developed that are facing these problems.

 

[Sakura]

So what happened in the last 100 years everywhere?

People shouldn't forget that a lot of the increasement of the total population is just a result of people also getting older.

I don't know if that is necessarily true.
The median age in the US in 1950 for example was 30 years old. 20 years later, after the population had increased by over 50 million, the median age had actually gone down to 28 years. That increase isn't a result of people getting older.

 

[Zophar]

I don't know if that is necessarily true.
The median age in the US in 1950 for example was 30 years old. 20 years later, after the population had increased by over 50 million, the median age had actually gone down to 28 years. That increase isn't a result of people getting older.

Immigration.

Rising ages are certainly a factor in increasing populations but not nearly as much of one as rising birth rates.

 

[CrazyDude]

More like lots of scarcities are virtual creations of market economies where you have a shitton of resources getting funneled to a wealthy minority who wastes them uncontrollably, while billions get by on an incredibly small percentage of the resources produced globally every year.

We don't really have an agricultural/production problem so much as we have an ridiculously unequal resource allocation problem.

Yup, the industrialized world wastes more food than the entire sub-Saharan Africa produces. (222 million vs. 230 million tons)

The amount of food lost and wasted every year is equal to more than half of the world’s annual cereals crops (2.3 billion tons in 2009/10)

In the USA, 30-40% of the food supply is wasted, equaling more than 20 pounds of food per person per month

http://www.worldfooddayusa.org/food_waste_the_facts

 

[eyeball_kid]

While a constant decline is a problem, isn't this a good thing as far as beating overpopulation goes?

EDIT: Maybe people will finally get to live in homes that aren't box sized

No, it a very bad thing. By 2030, 30% of Japan's population will be retirement age. The amount of social care those people will need is not sustainable in economic terms by the amount of working people left. It will crush Japan's economy and seriously weaken their importance on the global stage. Without allowing more immigration into the country, Japan as a nation and a culture is in serious trouble.

 

[Team Alucard]

Completely normal part of demographic transition.

Japan isn't the only 1st world nation with a fertility rate below replacement level. The difference is that immigration generally offsets the difference in other nations.

 

[Kyuur]

I don't think there are any countries that we can draw from past experience on this -- it will be interesting to watch from afar.

 

[PdotMichael]

I don't know if that is necessarily true.
The median age in the US in 1950 for example was 30 years old. 20 years later, after the population had increased by over 50 million, the median age had actually gone down to 28 years. That increase isn't a result of people getting older.

Age of childbearing, post war society etc.


Doesn't really change that even the USA is dealing with an older population.

 

[Familienoberhauptvogel]

I blame anime.

Not sure betterment of working conditions and maternity aides will help. Parents already get 90% of their prior wage when they take leave and that leave is up to 2 years per parent where I live and it didn't help much.

Don't take this the wrong way but do not open borders.
Their culture should be kept pure.

Japanese culture can be pretty fucked up.

 

[Super_Cobra]

Don't take this the wrong way but do not open borders.
Their culture should be kept pure.

 

[CrazyDude]

Don't take this the wrong way but do not open borders.
Their culture should be kept pure.

At the rate they are going, there won't anyone left to have a culture with.