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[N.Domixis]

I can't even imagine what the world would look like if every country was a first world country.

 

[Subpar Scrub]

Don't worry, I'm heading to Japan at the end of the year. I'll fix that population crisis in a solid weekend. #playa

 

[Josh7289]

Raising children is too expensive, Japan's economy has been static for two decades, and nowadays there are so many interesting things an individual can do with their (limited) free time other than raise children that I think it's no wonder this phenomenon is occurring.

 

[Yamauchi]

85 million by 2100 is optimistic, I'd say. The problem comes in about 10 years, when the large cohorts of Japanese women pass the age of fertility and you are left with very small numbers of fertile women (e.g. there are 4.5 million Japanese women aged 35-39, but only 3 million aged 20-24).

Demographers are watching it carefully as this kind of event has never happened on a large scale before. It was thought the former Soviet states would experience the same catastrophe, but most of them managed to increase the birth rate before the last large Soviet generation passed fertility age (which is still 15 years off). I personally think the population will drop to about 70 million by 2100. With debt-to-GDP already at 230%, I can't imagine that is going to be a good thing for Japan.

 

[Nakazato]

well someone has to provide some dick.

Lol

 

[onken]

We're living in the most comparable peaceful times in human history. Take off your blinders and look at things objectively from a historical perspective.

Using your baseless claims, you'd think that humanity was better in the Middle Ages since our population was drastically less than today. Yet wars and early death were quite common.

Good luck being a woman in those times. You were basically chattel. Or a peasant like most of the population.

What a ludicrous strawman.

 

[entremet]

What a ludicrous strawman.

You're the one that said population growth is the source of most modern ills. Yet you haven't provided any evidence.

 

[Moronwind]

Take away immigration and nearly every developed country in the world has a declining population. Japan isn't any different besides being incredibly anti immigration.

Germany and other European countries have dealt with declining populations for years. I always find it so odd that people fixate on Japan when this isn't actually a new concept. In America white people will be the minority much sooner than expected and middle aged white men are dying off at a faster rate than almost any other group. All of this culminates from many factors, but declining birth rates play a huge role in the uprise of minorities in America.

What matters is how much money goes in and out of the system. If European immigration is a net cost, as most reports seem to suggest, you're only exasperating the aging problem.
Now, Japan may be able to handle immigration better because it doesn't (to my knowledge) have such an extensive welfare state, much like the US.
But the point is that Japan may in fact be in a relatively fortunate position compared to countries like Germany and Sweden.

 

[trixx]

Japan has one of the highest if not the highest life expectancy in the world and appears to be still growing. If this trend continues I really wonder how they're going to support the aged population there.

The good thing though is that the elderly population in Japan appears to be much healthier than that of other developed nations. They can probably work longer and won't be as big of a strain for the health care system there

 

[orochi91]

Hmm, what is Japan doing in regards to:
* Maternity/Paternity leave and job security
* Curbing overtime/overworking culture
* Encouraging more part time jobs so that there's always a parent available to take care of the kids.
* Daycare centers

What are their plans to increase the birthrate?

+1

Can anybody address this?

Has Japan made any efforts to tackle these specific issues?

 

[Steel]

+1

Can anybody address this?

Has Japan made any efforts to tackle these specific issues?

Been answered. The answer is no, not really.

 

[BlitzerRadic]

Japan has one of the highest if not the highest life expectancy in the world and appears to be still growing. If this trend continues I really wonder how they're going to support the aged population there.

The good thing though is that the elderly population in Japan appears to be much healthier than that of other developed nations. They can probably work longer and won't be as big of a strain for the health care system there

Japan is investing heavily into robotics to care for the elderly.

 

[Sweetjebus]

These issues have been probably covered already but

Why is it such an big issue at a global scale if one nations population isn't growing? Wasn't overpopulation like one of the biggest threads we have been afraid about?

Any one nation isn't going to go extinct nowhere soon even with not growing population, isn't it an OK thing if we aren't populating more?

Sure that is a problem for Japan if they will have problem sustaining their economy with less population growth. But I think it's another thing to say that they need grow their population to sustain their society well-being. Shouldn't improving technology cover the needs of sustaining well-being without needing to grow the population ever and ever?

 

[Steel]

These issues have been probably covered already but

Why is it such an big issue at a global scale if one nations population isn't growing? Wasn't overpopulation like one of the biggest threads we have been afraid about?

Any one nation isn't going to go extinct nowhere soon even with not growing population, isn't it an OK thing if we aren't populating more?

Sure that is a problem for Japan if they will have problem sustaining their economy with less population growth. But I think it's another thing to say that they need grow their population to sustain their society well-being. Shouldn't improving technology cover the needs of sustaining well-being without needing to grow the population ever and ever?

There are quite a few factors.

First: No. Technology alone doesn't help Japan's economy in this situation. An aging work force means there are less workers to support a greater number of retirees which puts a massive strain on the overall economy. Without population growth, economics just doesn't work. The further down this path Japan goes, the more their economy suffers until they totally collapse.

Second: Japan is one of the world's largest economies. Until recently it had the second highest GDP in the world, China took that position only relatively recently. Japan's sluggish economy has been a strain on the global economy for years, and an outright collapse would bring others with them.

Third: Population growth in first world countries doesn't quite mean that there have to be positive birth rates versus death rates. In fact, most first-world countries are negative in this regard. They make up the difference with immigrants, which Japan basically shuts out.

 

[TwEE-N-Toast]

Japan kind of reminds me a bit of that utopian mouse universe experiment.




"In the early 1960s, the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) acquired property in a rural area outside Poolesville, Maryland. The facility that was built on this property housed several research projects, including those headed by Calhoun. It was here that his most famous experiment, the mouse universe, was created.[1] In July 1968 four pairs of mice were introduced into the Utopian universe. The universe was a 9-foot (2.7 m) square metal pen with 4.5-foot-high (1.4 m) sides. Each side had four groups of four vertical, wire mesh “tunnels.” The “tunnels” gave access to nesting boxes, food hoppers, and water dispensers. There was no shortage of food or water or nesting material. There were no predators. The only adversity was the limit on space.


Initially the population grew rapidly, doubling every 55 days. The population reached 620 by day 315, after which the population growth dropped markedly. The last surviving birth was on day 600. This period between day 315 and day 600 saw a breakdown in social structure and in normal social behavior. Among the aberrations in behavior were the following: expulsion of young before weaning was complete, wounding of young, increase in homosexual behavior, inability of dominant males to maintain the defense of their territory and females, aggressive behavior of females, passivity of non-dominant males with increased attacks on each other which were not defended against.[2] After day 600, the social breakdown continued and the population declined toward extinction. During this period females ceased to reproduce. Their male counterparts withdrew completely, never engaging in courtship or fighting. They ate, drank, slept, and groomed themselves – all solitary pursuits. Sleek, healthy coats and an absence of scars characterized these males. They were dubbed “the beautiful ones.” Breeding never resumed and behavior patterns were permanently changed.

The conclusions drawn from this experiment were that when all available space is taken and all social roles filled, competition and the stresses experienced by the individuals will result in a total breakdown in complex social behaviors, ultimately resulting in the demise of the population.

Calhoun saw the fate of the population of mice as a metaphor for the potential fate of man. He characterized the social breakdown as a “second death”. His study has been cited by writers such as Bill Perkins as a warning of the dangers of the living in an "increasingly crowded and impersonal world"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_B._Calhoun

 

[Sweetjebus]

There are quite a few factors.

First: No. Technology alone doesn't help Japan's economy in this situation. An aging work force means there are less workers to support a greater number of retirees which puts a massive strain on the overall economy. Without population growth, economics just doesn't work. The further down this path Japan goes, the more their economy suffers until they totally collapse.

Second: Japan is one of the world's largest economies. Until recently it had the second highest GDP in the world, China took that position only relatively recently. Japan's sluggish economy has been a strain on the global economy for years, and an outright collapse would bring others with them.

Third: Population growth in first world countries doesn't quite mean that there have to be positive birth rates versus death rates. In fact, most first-world countries are negative in this regard. They make up the difference with immigrants, which Japan basically shuts out.

I'm having issue with this in the first point. We shouldn't need ever growing population to sustain the society or to advance it. How the hell can we just keep growing and growing the population? Or if we need to grow, we need to grow out if this planet and out of thinking about specific nations individually.

Yes, nationally it is difficult for Japan if it's population keeps shrinking but isn't the whole world worlds population still growing?

Edit, if the whole world population will some day start going down that might alarming but not in thousands of years.

 

[Regiruler]

I'm more concerned about the rural areas than the ultra population dense supercities. Encourage emigration or something.

 

[spazchicken]

I wonder what the issue is and why similar countries in close proximity like Korea aren't going through the same thing.

 

[t26]

I wonder what the issue is and why similar countries in close proximity like Korea aren't going through the same thing.

Korea http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2010/08/113_71628.html
Taiwan: http://news.asiaone.com/News/Latest+News/Asia/Story/A1Story20100412-209823.html
Probably the same for Hong Kong and Singapore but they are able to make up with immigration.

 

[Steel]

I'm having issue with this in the first point. We shouldn't need ever growing population to sustain the society or to advance it. How the hell can we just keep growing and growing the population? Or if we need to grow, we need to grow out if this planet and out of thinking about specific nations individually.

Again, not how economics work. It doesn't benefit the global economy for a place like Nigeria to have a growth rate off the charts, for example. In fact, it's harmful to Nigerians who have to spend money that they don't have taking care of these children rather than focusing on economic progress.

And, also again, Japan doesn't need positive birth rates if they can manage a decent amount of immigrants like other first-world countries do. The problem isn't simply that the population of Japan is decreasing, it's that it's aging. If the population of Japan went down without the average age increasing, then it wouldn't be a problem. But that's not how it works.

Yes, nationally it is difficult for Japan if it's population keeps shrinking but isn't the whole world worlds population still growing?

No one's worried that the world is going to run out of people because Japan's population is decreasing. People are worried that Japan's aging population will inevitably cause Japan to suffer an economic collapse that could have a drastic effect on the WORLD economy, because Japan is the third largest economy. It's really that simple.

Edit, if the whole world population will some day start going down that might alarming but not in thousands of years.

That's... Not the problem here.

 

[sant]

It is pretty clear that Japan is in permanent decline

 

[Prototype Viktor]

Yes! Take that over population (do that 100x to China and India tho)

 

[Mecha]

No one's worried that the world is going to run out of people because Japan's population is decreasing. People are worried that Japan's aging population will inevitably cause Japan to suffer an economic collapse that could have a drastic effect on the WORLD economy, because Japan is the third largest economy. It's really that simple.

I don't see Japan's economy going into a full economic collapse due to a declining population. By the time there would be any real work shortages automation would be a much larger aspect of our daily lives, and Japan could always support workers from nearby developing countries to work there. Another factor to consider is that the United States has an invested interest in keeping Japan afloat with the rising tensions in that region. I could see the US passing policies to keep Japans economy going if needed. Will the economy continue to stay stagnate and sometimes regress? More than likely, but I don't see it collapsing.

 

[Steel]

I don't see Japan's economy going into a full economic collapse due to a declining population. By the time there would be any real work shortages automation would be a much larger aspect of our daily lives, and Japan could always support workers from nearby developing countries to work there. Another factor to consider is that the United States has an invested interest in keeping Japan afloat with the rising tensions in that region. I could see the US passing policies to keep Japans economy going if needed. Will the economy continue to stay stagnate and sometimes regress? More than likely, but I don't see it collapsing.

Japan's debt is currently 10.5 trillion dollars. That's more than half our debt. Its gdp is less than 5 trillion(And decreasing), which is about 1/3 of the U.S's GDP. That's not something the U.S. can bail out when there aren't enough tax payers to keep things afloat. And even if things simply remain stagnant, that's not good for the global economy either.

 

[Ayumi]

Hmm, what is Japan doing in regards to:
* Maternity/Paternity leave and job security
* Curbing overtime/overworking culture
* Encouraging more part time jobs so that there's always a parent available to take care of the kids.
* Daycare centers

What are their plans to increase the birthrate?

As for daycar centers, it's REALLY hard to get a spot. The public ones (free) prioritises families who make less money (so the spots are based on salary to help those who need to work).

Privat nurseries are very expensive.

 

[Sweetjebus]

Again, not how economics work. It doesn't benefit the global economy for a place like Nigeria to have a growth rate off the charts, for example. In fact, it's harmful to Nigerians who have to spend money that they don't have taking care of these children rather than focusing on economic progress.

And, also again, Japan doesn't need positive birth rates if they can manage a decent amount of immigrants like other first-world countries do. The problem isn't simply that the population of Japan is decreasing, it's that it's aging. If the population of Japan went down without the average age increasing, then it wouldn't be a problem. But that's not how it works.

No one's worried that the world is going to run out of people because Japan's population is decreasing. People are worried that Japan's aging population will inevitably cause Japan to suffer an economic collapse that could have a drastic effect on the WORLD economy, because Japan is the third largest economy. It's really that simple.

That's... Not the problem here.

I agree aging population is a problem for any one society. I'm not sure about the effect on the global economy? Why does the global economy just need to grow forever?

I don't agree with you that poor countries are getting poorer because of the more children they are taking care of. I thought one of the reasons poor countries keep making more children is to the children to provide for the parents.

Japan's debt is currently 10.5 trillion dollars. That's more than half our debt. Its gdp is less than 5 trillion(And decreasing), which is about 1/3 of the U.S's GDP. That's not something the U.S. can bail out when there aren't enough tax payers to keep things afloat. And even if things simply remain stagnant, that's not good for the global economy either.

Why would U.S specifically need to bail out this? I agree if things remain stagnant it isn't good for global economy but why does the global economy need more and more grow constantly?

 

[Barrylocke]

It's such a dense country that in the long term this isn't the worst thing in the world, but it's going to be an exceptionally painful decade.

The rural town I lived in 11 years ago, at the time vibrant and vital, is now a husk of its former self. The historic shopping street shuttered after a megastore came to town. And 30-40% of the ancestral family homes now lie vacant, quickly becoming dangerous.

Persona 4 is real.

 

[SteveO409]

It's time for Ayano to work overtime and fill up the rural cities with scarecrows

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/05/01/valley-of-dolls-japan_n_5240780.html

 

[Pancake Mix]

I know a lot of people are jumping on Super_Cobra's post (and I don't know about the "pure" line) but if Japan or any other country doesn't want to allow significant immigration that's their prerogative, period. If it changes, great, but it's not up to you.

 

[cityhunter]

Too many people in the world already. I hope other countries follow suit and have population declines as well.

You first edgemaster.

 

[Branduil]

I know a lot of people are jumping on Super_Cobra's post (and I don't know about the "pure" line) but if Japan or any other country doesn't want to allow significant immigration that's their prerogative, period. If it changes, great, but it's not up to you.

Slowly killing your own country because you don't want foreigners "ruining" your culture seems like a pretty bad idea but that's just me.

 

[Korey]

The answer is 100% in work culture and career reform, imo.

Fix that and you'll fix family life in Japan. My opinion based on limited knowledge of the culture in Japan as an outsider of course.

 

[Mik2121]

Hmm, what is Japan doing in regards to:
* Maternity/Paternity leave and job security
* Curbing overtime/overworking culture
* Encouraging more part time jobs so that there's always a parent available to take care of the kids.
* Daycare centers

What are their plans to increase the birthrate?

Some people already responded but I'll chime in to say that, yes, all these issues are being amazingly ignored. Paternity leave is nonexistent (they give you an insulting 2 days with which they expect you to attend the birth one day and do paperwork the other), overtime mentality is stuck in the 70s and daycare center is so hard to get in unless the mother also needs to work to support the family or if your kid is quite young (think under 1 year old).

I haven't heard any plan to increase birthrate. This is living in Osaka, btw (not Tokyo like some other posters here).


They need to start by doing something about the work culture though. It's one of the most toxic things about this country, it feels. Except for some of the younger companies like LINE which apparently is quite good in that regard.

 

[Otakumegane]

I mean I understand it's bad for economics and all.

But I do think too many humans is still a problem. Unless we can colonize other planets or something.

 

[Pancake Mix]

I mean I understand it's bad for economics and all.

But I do think too many humans is still a problem. Unless we can colonize other planets or something.

Maybe some day...maybe some day.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terraforming_of_Mars

http://www.universetoday.com/127311/guide-to-terraforming/

Frankly if we can't leave Earth and eventually the solar system we are all DOOMED, and that's if nuclear warfare doesn't kill us in the relative near term.

 

[mrklaw]

Some people already responded but I'll chime in to say that, yes, all these issues are being amazingly ignored. Paternity leave is nonexistent (they give you an insulting 2 days with which they expect you to attend the birth one day and do paperwork the other), overtime mentality is stuck in the 70s and daycare center is so hard to get in unless the mother also needs to work to support the family or if your kid is quite young (think under 1 year old).

I haven't heard any plan to increase birthrate. This is living in Osaka, btw (not Tokyo like some other posters here).


They need to start by doing something about the work culture though. It's one of the most toxic things about this country, it feels. Except for some of the younger companies like LINE which apparently is quite good in that regard.

Sounds like some decent money to be made from business addressing this. You could make a killing from setting up affordable daycare.

 

[Aztechnology]

Because Japan's culture is so rich and old. Its basically a treasure for humanity.

Sorry I'm not super liberal like the rest of you guys.

What?

First off, those are just odd statements to make given that it's not as though letting immigrants into your country drastically changes your society, usually the immigrant population adapts. Second, almost every developed nation has this issue without immigration. The big difference is Xenophobia and from what I can tell unfortunately other countries are getting there too. Japan either has to increase population themselves, or let other people immigrate. Given the cultural climate in Japan I don't see the former happening.

 

[UnemployedVillain]

well someone has to provide some dick.

My body is ready