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[silks]

I don't think MS will drop Kinect. They've hung too much of a value proposition on it, just like Nintendo did with their GamePad. They said that Kinect 2.0 will be a huge differentiator, it hasn't been thus far, but they're stuck with it because it's a unique selling point of the console.

Just like Nintendo opted for bundling/price drop instead of GamePad-less Wii U, MS will keep Kinect in the box and further bundle (Titanfall, Forza 5) and let retailers eat the cost with sales.

However, at E3 I do believe they'll drop the price to $449.99 with a bundled game, duplicating the best of the Titanfall Bundle deals.

 

[JohnnyFootball]

MS banked on Titanfall saving them.

Maybe they need to realize the market needs more than just another FPS.

 

[Delusibeta]

[360] 120k
[3DS] 160k
[PS3] 100k
[PS4] 350k
[WIU] 70k
[XB1] 330k

I might win this month.

 

[spekkeh]

bahahahaha, let's not go overboard now

Xbone is now at 5 million shipped. They sold 300k last month, but that's likely a spike.
WiiU at 6 million?

Say Xbone will sell 200k a month from now on out, WiiU 50k. (given feb results this is very positive for xbone and very negative for wiiu)

Then Xbone will overtake the WiiU in 5 + 0.2t = 6 + 0.05t; 0.15t = 1; 7 months

So by October. However, this is presuming the US is the only region that counts, and I would guess Wii U does better in other regions than Xbone, and Xbone doesn't seem to be selling 4 times Wii U amounts right now, and there's quite some chance Xbone sales drop off.

I think X1 is not overtaking WiiU this year frankly.

 

[Road]

[360] 99k
[3DS] 144k
[PS3] 88k
[PS4] 333k
[WIU] 77k
[XB1] 366k

Well, that's what I deserve for ignoring Allahmazon March best sellers: http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-03/videogames/

1. PS4

11. XBO+Titanfall
76. XBO

It obviously showed me the righteous path, but I lacked faith...

 

[Zok310]

[PS4] 300K
[XB1] 300K
[3DS] 250K
[PS3] 80K
[360] 90K
[WIU] 60K

Not bad you.

 

[geordiemp]

Well, looking at Amazon.com sales charts...

http://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-video-games/zgbs/videogames/ref=zg_bs_unv_vg_1_294940_1

and 2014 so far

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar

Looks as though Titanfall has massive attach rate, but on Amazon cant see much xbox one console sales, even current Ps4 is #4 and Titanfall bundle is # 22. The Titanfall bundle at # 22 on Amazon is same position as Xbox one 2014 YTD.

Appreciate amazon is only a single online supplier snapshot, but using it as a poll is a good an indicator I am going to get....

[Xbox one] 350 K
[Ps4] 520 K

I think people buy consoles for multiple game potential and not just 1 or 2 exclusives, and Ps4 being the stronger console for multiplats will win it again for Sony (next gen)

Any idea of the ps4 sales, I expected a Ps4 win but maybe got carried away with 520 K LOL, Also XB1 lower than I guessed....

 

[CoG]

wrong thread gah

 

[vinnygambini]

[360] 117K
[3DS] 149K
[PS3] 102K
[PS4] 326K
[WIU] 72K
[XB1] 335K

I think I did good this month, though a little low on PS4 numbers on my end sadly.

 

[FiggyCal]

[360] 92K
[3DS] 157K
[PS3] 60K
[PS4] 306K
[WIU] 73K
[XB1] 287K

Meh :/

 

[SwiftDeath]

[XB1] 395K
[PS4] 385K
[3DS] 160K
[360] 155K
[PS3] 145K
[WIU] 74K

May the NPD gods smile upon me this the 3rd Thursday of April, 2014

Bah Why did I go with the order beast786 went with?

Spoiler

I kid but seriously

 

[theprodigy]

[XB1] 375K
[PS4] 350K
[3DS] 175K
[360] 100K
[PS3] 90K
[WIU] 75K

here goes nothing

so:
XB1-off by 64k (19.86 points)
PS4-off by 21k (23.58 points)
360-off by 11k (22.52 points)
3DS-off by 16k (22.71 points)
Wii U-off by 5k
PS3-off by 23k
Total points: 88.67, not bad but people did well this month across the board
Total units:140k

 

[beast786]

It would be embarrassing for MS if the Xbox One doesn't do better than the PS4 for March NPD.

.

 

[gigantor21]

I've never done one of these before, but fuck it:

[360] 160k
[3DS] 140k
[PS3] 130k
[PS4] 450k
[WIU] 55k
[XB1] 600k

A brief post-mortem:

- I was WAY off on the Gen 8 consoles. The PS4 ended up winning, and neither sold anywhere near as much as I expected.
- Also guessed far too high on the 360--and given MS stated they had the best selling Gen 7 console, the PS3 number is too high as well.

Well, at least I tried. XD

 

[shinra-bansho]

XB1 off by 6K, 360 off by 18K, PS4 off by at least 36K. Order off. PS4 continues to impress.

Still probably better than my last month.

 

[BlackJace]

This blows. You had one job, Titanfall.

 

[Jigorath]

[PS4] 375K
[XB1] 360K
[3DS] 140K
[360] 90K
[PS3] 85K
[WIU] 80K

If thuway is correct then I nailed my PS4 prediction. Way overestimated XBO.

 

[Jomjom]

I predicted that Xbone would double up the PS4 sales this month...

 

[Trevelyon]

I predicted that Xbone would double up the PS4 sales this month...

It really could've gone either way. But the early quietness on Titanfall's launch was damning.

 

[SwiftDeath]

It really could've gone either way. But the early quietness on Titanfall's launch was damning.

There is no way on earth either console was selling anything close to 800k this month

 

[BabyFaceKillah]

Came in to laugh at dumb comments and I am not disappointed.

congrats to both for selling so well I guess.

 

[Moneal]

[360]85k
[3DS]137k
[PS3]80k
[PS4]375k
[WIU]75k
[XB1] 320k

was pretty spot on for xbox one and ps4 if thruway's 60k more is right.

 

[donny2112]

Well, that's what I deserve for ignoring Allahmazon March best sellers: http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-03/videogames/

1. PS4

11. XBO+Titanfall
76. XBO

It obviously showed me the righteous path, but I lacked faith...

Maybe there's something to this Allahamazon following...

:lol

 

[Bruno MB]

I always back the wrong horse, I can't remember when was the last time I got the 10 extra points for correct hardware ordering.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Nice think I got pretty close with this one considering Cream's statement

So with the news of 1M units of Infamous Second Son sold through to consumers in 9 days I thought I'd bump this thread as well as make a new prediction

March NPD: ISS -> 450K

 

[theprodigy]

ok, now we just need PS3 numbers and we can calculate the standings for this month

 

[shinra-bansho]

[3DS] 159K

Yay me.

 

[theprodigy]

Yay me.

WTF

 

[Dr. Kitty Muffins]

[XB1] 303K
[PS4] 320K
[3DS] 167K
[360] 119K
[PS3] 98K
[WIU] 76K
[PSV] 53k

I think this was my best month ever.

 

[theprodigy]

so the numbers are:
[PS4] 371K
[XB1] 311K
[3DS] 159K
[360] 111K
[WIU] 70K
[PS3] 67K

I expect results by tomorrow donny2112

 

[SwiftDeath]

so the numbers are:
[PS4] 371K
[XB1] 311K
[3DS] 159K
[360] 111K
[WIU] 70K
[PS3] 67K

I expect results by tomorrow donny2112

I got close on PS4, 3DS, and Wii U but whiffed on the other 3 platforms :\

PS3 slays me

 

[IN&OUT]

.

He is no where to be seen. Lmao

 

[theprodigy]

I got close on PS4, 3DS, and Wii U but whiffed on the other 3 platforms :\

PS3 slays me

82.24/225k, you suck at predicting last gen

 

[SwiftDeath]

He is no where to be seen. Lmao

He's banned though

82.24/225k, you suck at predicting last gen

It hurts prodigy, it hurts. I'm guessing 2 units of last gen consoles sold next month. Probably still be closer

 

[IN&OUT]

He's banned though

Was it an NPD meltdown? I'd like to see the bannable offense

 

[SwiftDeath]

Was it an NPD meltdown? I'd like to see the bannable offense

I think he got banned in the trials thread

Maybe for this post?

Pretty sure he's been banned before for suggesting the number of 1080p titles on XB1 are greater than it actually is. Not a meltdown but incorrect info

That's my assumption though, could be an older post I guess

 

[theprodigy]

Why didn't you quote the original post IN&OUT?

 

[IN&OUT]

I think he got banned in the trials thread

Maybe for this post?

Pretty sure he's been banned before for suggesting the number of 1080p titles on XB1 are greater than it actually is. Not a meltdown but incorrect info

That's my assumption though, could be an older post I guess

Ok, Thanks

I would have loved his insight on this historic NPD.

 

[SwiftDeath]

nvm

lol dat edit

Ok, Thanks

I would have loved his insight on this historic NPD.

He would've handled it ok. Bgamer spins a bit maybe on the number of 1080p titles [although I think that's probably more of an honest mistake] but he's not a bad poster compared to so many others on here

 

[michaelius]

[PS4] 450k
[XB1] 400k
[3DS] 160k
[360] 100k
[PS3] 90K
[WIU] 70k

Do we have info on PS3 placing ? That's the only thing separating me from correct positions bonus

 

[SwiftDeath]

Do we have info on PS3 placing ? That's the only thing separating me from correct positions bonus

Wii U > PS3

Spoiler

Sad face is because it ruins my positions. Wii U should be selling better tbh

 

[Aquamarine]

My predictions:

I expect bumps all around and a Wii U regression to more conventional norms.

[360] 145K
[3DS] 196K
[PS3] 134K
[PS4] 410K
[WIU] 75K
[XB1] 404K

Real sales:

[360] 111K
[3DS] 159K
[PS3] 67K
[PS4] 371K
[WIU] 70K
[XB1] 311K


Results:

[360] 34K off the real total
[3DS] 37K off the real total
[PS3] 67K off the real total
[PS4] 39K off the real total
[WIU] 5K off the real total
[XB1] 93K off the real total

I absolutely nailed Wii U predictions spot-on. It indeed suffered through a month-over-month regression to conventional norms, only 3% better than last year.

I was a tad off with 360 / 3DS / PS4.

PS3 and XB1 results I was terribly off...nearly 100K off with XB1 will be the final blow this reporting period. I hope I don't do that poorly in the scheme of things.

 

[theprodigy]

Do we have info on PS3 placing ? That's the only thing separating me from correct positions bonus

welcome to the land of shattered dreams, as Wii U beating PS3 takes out the vast majority of people that could have gotten the order bonus (thank goodness, now a bunch of people won't jump me with the bonus huehuehue)

Results:

[360] 34K off the real total
[3DS] 37K off the real total
[PS3] 67K off the real total
[PS4] 39K off the real total
[WIU] 5K off the real total
[XB1] 93K off the real total

I absolutely nailed Wii U predictions spot-on. It indeed suffered through a month-over-month regression to conventional norms, only 3% better than last year.

I was a tad off with 360 / 3DS / PS4.

PS3 and XB1 results I was terribly off...nearly 100K off with XB1 will be the final blow this reporting period. I hope I don't do that poorly in the scheme of things.

76.42 points?
.....you chose

Spoiler

kind of

poorly

edit: damn you shinra, you beat me by like .3

 

[michaelius]

Oh well no cookies for me this month

 

[donny2112]

NeoGAF Prediction Results - March 2014

Units

1. moneal2001 - 79,000
2. Delusibeta - 83,000
2. baekshi - 83,000
4. TomShoe - 92,000
5. Deku Tree - 105,000
6. Randolph Freelander - 106,000
7. astrogamer - 108,000
8. Dr. Kitty Muffins - 112,000
9. FTF - 113,000
9. confuziz - 113,000
11. Duxxy3 - 115,000
12. 1.21Gigawatts - 118,000
13. FiggyCal - 120,000
13. travisbickle - 120,000
15. FusionCode - 121,000
16. Mr Swine - 122,000
16. vinnygambini - 122,000
18. allan-bh - 123,000
19. metalslimer - 128,000
20. GAF_Agg - 129,700
21. prag16 - 130,000
22. Maxxan - 131,000
22. Paskil - 131,000
24. molvetica - 133,000
25. doicare - 134,000
26. Freeman - 135,000
26. Gbpackers31 - 135,000
28. pitseleh - 138,000
29. TheBanditKing - 139,000
30. Bruno MB - 140,000
30. JaguarCROW - 140,000
30. sacrificengineer - 140,000
30. theprodigy - 140,000
34. shinra-bansho - 141,000
35. GhaleonEB - 143,000
36. Orteip490 - 147,000
37. 1000 Branches - 148,000
37. Lexxus - 148,000
37. Road - 148,000
40. BlackJace - 151,000
40. RamzaIsCool - 151,000
42. donny2112 - 151,005
43. Dynopia - 153,000
43. Zalman - 153,000
43. archnemesis - 153,000
46. FliXFantatier - 155,000
46. Jonsoncao - 155,000
48. DoubleTake - 156,000
49. MasterSheen - 157,000
49. Mr Pockets - 157,000
51. Goldmund - 161,000
52. Asd202 - 163,000
53. gtj1092 - 164,000
54. Hexa - 166,000
55. Bsigg12 - 167,000
55. Kriken - 167,000
57. Roboleon - 170,000
58. andromeduck - 171,000
59. Hammer24 - 173,000
60. Phatmac - 175,000
61. BruceLeeRoy - 176,000
62. LicenceToK1ll - 179,000
63. unknownstranger - 181,000
64. jayu26 - 182,000
65. rokkerkory - 183,000
66. BlackBuzzard - 186,000
66. airmangataosenai - 186,000
68. BuzzJive - 187,000
68. Gonzo The Great - 187,000
70. DrWong - 189,000
71. Pound_lb003 - 190,000
72. jvm - 193,000
72. samus4ever - 193,000
74. Averon - 194,000
75. 1st Course - 198,000
76. Mass Effect - 200,000
77. bakman21 - 203,000
77. michaelius - 203,000
79. Blablurn - 204,000
79. The Llama - 204,000
79. digoutyoursoul - 204,000
82. AniHawk - 205,000
82. RealityPales - 205,000
82. TheRealTalker - 205,000
85. Elios83 - 206,000
85. Zero-Crescent - 206,000
87. anexanhume - 208,000
88. Coulomb_Barrier - 210,000
89. andy_lhc - 216,000
90. Zok310 - 217,000
90. thenameDS - 217,000
92. Wynnebeck - 218,000
92. pestul - 218,000
94. perfectchaos007 - 219,000
95. Darth Zandatsu - 224,000
95. Jamix012 - 224,000
97. SwiftDeath - 225,000
98. Bgamer90 - 226,000
99. Metfanant - 228,000
99. VanCityGamer - 228,000
101. Prototype Viktor - 231,000
101. daegan - 231,000
101. mejin - 231,000
104. Green Yoshi - 233,000
104. Prine - 233,000
104. TheCloser - 233,000
104. sext0n - 233,000
108. Megadragon15 - 236,000
109. Cornbread78 - 238,000
110. CorporateClown - 241,000
111. Loris146 - 246,000
112. sjagolinzer - 247,000
113. Into - 251,000
113. MaximusPayne - 251,000
113. pieatorium - 251,000
116. Anth0ny - 254,000
117. LOCK - 256,000
118. skedar897 - 257,000
119. Insane Metal - 258,000
120. brickarts295 - 259,000
121. Canis lupus - 264,000
122. Apophis2036 - 265,000
123. KillerMan91 - 266,000
124. Dedication Through Light - 268,000
124. Sloane_Ranger - 268,000
126. ethomaz - 271,000
127. DANNYJUNIOR - 273,000
128. Aquamarine - 275,000
129. Opt1kon_ - 279,000
130. IAmRandom31 - 283,000
131. Accident - 286,000
132. Madao - 288,000
133. azhar - 291,000
133. pcostabel - 291,000
135. flkraven - 292,000
136. Ludicrous Speed - 303,000
137. Graphics Horse - 304,000
138. N.Domixis - 311,000
138. Tratorn - 311,000
140. Syphon Filter - 312,000
140. ascii42 - 312,000
142. RexNovis - 319,000
143. Jallopy - 321,000
143. kyser73 - 321,000
145. LordOcidax - 326,000
146. *offensive_nickname* - 339,000
147. Exploratory - 340,000
148. Guymelef - 341,000
149. TechnicPuppet - 351,000
150. Blue Ranger - 356,000
151. Dragonborn - 361,000
151. beast786 - 361,000
153. noobie - 362,000
154. Codeblew - 372,000
155. Chobel - 381,000
156. S┐mon - 384,000
157. quetz67 - 393,000
158. Tagg9 - 402,000
159. dolemite - 422,000
160. Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule - 491,000
160. orochi91 - 491,000
162. gigantor21 - 514,000
163. Jomjom - 751,000
164. Incognito - 815,000


Points

     March 2014                      Overall 2014 Top (2/3)
01.  Delusibeta             107.87   kyser73                184.71
02.  baekshi                107.26   Dynopia                177.08
03.  moneal2001             106.69   baekshi                174.73
04.  TomShoe                100.24   Loris146               174.70
05.  JaguarCROW              99.80   Bruno MB               172.69
06.  Deku Tree               99.58   Road                   170.53
07.  FiggyCal                99.10   Canis lupus            169.80
08.  RamzaIsCool             98.61   BuzzJive               169.48
09.  Randolph Freelander     97.50   astrogamer             167.47
10.  astrogamer              97.04   sacrificengineer       167.39
11.  Dr. Kitty Muffins       95.86   RamzaIsCool            166.68
12.  confuziz                95.53   Hammer24               166.47
13.  allan-bh                92.79   Duxxy3                 163.24
14.  travisbickle            92.25   digoutyoursoul         162.72
15.  vinnygambini            92.11   FiggyCal               162.29
16.  TheBanditKing           91.93   doicare                161.67
17.  Gbpackers31             91.63   archnemesis            161.58
18.  DoubleTake              91.56   Asd202                 161.15
19.  Maxxan                  91.36   Elios83                160.99
20.  pitseleh                90.92   Delusibeta             160.69
21.  Zalman                  90.82   donny2112              159.43
22.  1.21Gigawatts           90.63   confuziz               159.16
23.  Mr Pockets              90.46   gtj1092                158.45
24.  Paskil                  90.39   michaelius             158.43
25.  FTF                     90.09   allan-bh               157.82
26.  archnemesis             89.71   BlackBuzzard           157.31
27.  Hexa                    89.52   daegan                 157.14
28.  Bruno MB                89.41   Randolph Freelander    157.12
29.  shinra-bansho           88.99   shinra-bansho          157.11
30.  Lexxus                  88.85   Gbpackers31            155.44
31.  Jonsoncao               88.80   Jallopy                155.35
32.  prag16                  88.76   vinnygambini           154.92
33.  sacrificengineer        88.75   pitseleh               154.45
34.  donny2112               88.68   prag16                 153.87
35.  BlackJace               88.64   Roboleon               153.74
36.  doicare                 88.55   LicenceToK1ll          152.86
37.  molvetica               88.54   CorporateClown         152.69
38.  theprodigy              88.45   Megadragon15           152.53
39.  1st Course              88.42   travisbickle           152.38
40.  Phatmac                 88.21   airmangataosenai       152.25
41.  FusionCode              88.07   bakman21               152.18
42.  Blablurn                88.05   rokkerkory             151.65
43.  gtj1092                 88.05   Syphon Filter          151.50
44.  GhaleonEB               88.04   BlackJace              151.48
45.  Road                    87.96   Bgamer90               150.75
46.  Gonzo The Great         87.72   FusionCode             150.43
47.  jvm                     87.56   Zero-Crescent          150.23
48.  Dynopia                 87.38   Jonsoncao              150.18
49.  BlackBuzzard            87.30   Maxxan                 149.93
50.  airmangataosenai        86.99   Orteip490              149.87

Congratulations, moneal2001 in Units and Delusibeta in Points!

 

[shinra-bansho]

Congrats to the winners.
PS4 really surprised me this month and totally ruined my predictions.

 

[AniHawk]

i underestimated everything except the vita.

 

[Chobel]

155. Chobel - 381,000

I fucked up big time.

Anyway congrats Delusibeta, and thanks donny2112 for doing this.

 

[Bruno MB]

PS3 is always the most unpredictable console for getting the hardware rankings right, I didn't expect it to be below Wii U. I don't know what I'll do next month

January 2014

PS3 - 53,500
WIU - 49,000
360 - 48,500

February 2014

360 - 114,000
PS3 - 102,000
WIU - 82,500

March 2014

360 - 111,000
WIU - 70,000
PS3 - 68,000

 

[allan-bh]

Finally a decent month for me. Back to the top 50 overall.

Spot on Wii U and miss 3DS and X360 for 1k each. Xbox One mainly ruined my chances of win.