Metallix87
Member
Agreed. It seems inevitable now, though they may actually port to PSP as well to maximize profits.
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Media Create Sales: Week 10, 2012 (Mar 05 - Mar 11)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Agreed. It seems inevitable now, though they may actually port to PSP as well to maximize profits.
Price drop (most likely a $250 bundle instead) at E3 with new game announcements, that or wait for a miracle.
thehypocrite
Member
Year over year is trending down for 2+ years in a row for the traditional retail gaming market (units/soft/hard & revenue) in japan.
Knowing Sony, it'll most likely be a bundle, like you said. 8gb Memory Card + Resistance (or Uncharted) + Super Stardust Delta.
thehypocrite
Member
The software isn't there for the Vita yet, a price drop will only provide a temporary boost without much else, if the software needed to sustain the sales isn't present. Sony needs more unique and continuous software, than a price cut.
Looking at those SFxT sales, I think Capcom is killing the fighting genre again, saturating it with rereleases every year. Why must companies run successful stuff into the ground?
Anyways, can I officially make the call Vita will never catch the 3DS in its lifetime in either software or hardware? Cannot wait for that fall price drop.
Anyways, can I officially make the call Vita will never catch the 3DS in its lifetime in either software or hardware? Cannot wait for that fall price drop.
This is true worldwide though. You may be right, but I'm more inclined to believe (or would rather believe, take your pick) that it's just this console generation winding down. It's simply gone on too long.
Lord_Byron28
Member
Well couldn't that be chalked up to the ending of the current gaming generation where it's natural for things to start declining? Especially the Wii which fell apart and DS massive decline. Wii and DS held up the sales quite handidly for a few years and now that it's the end of their lifecycles it seems natural that the industry is showing YoY decline. On top of that the small(possibly insignificant) digital software growth.
Developers will shift to the 3DS because the PS3/PSP will be dead or near dead two years from now at the most.
Sammy Samusu
Member
Usually we use shipped numbers to talk about worldwide sales, so it should be close to 2M by the end of March.
He said "roughly", lol. But yeah, 17.5M (I'd say 18M) is closer to reality.
Having a full holiday schedule without the price drop/bundels would be foolish. They can't risk the coming holiday and have to do everything at once, Japanese games at TGS should help them there.
I agree that the Vita needs cool software but software alone might not be enough to kickstart it like the 3DS.
dacuk
Member
May I get you a chair for while you are waiting?
Because you are going to wait a while for this...
kind of crazy that 3DS will beat the GC's LTD by the end of the year
PSP will be done after this year, big developers have already moved the big franchises away from it. PS3 still has life but is very far from best environment.
3DS will be the clear winner at hw and sw this year, nothing can prevent that.
thehypocrite
Member
We had the 3DS & Vita Released last year. Even though is true that the generations are winding down, we have had new hardware that has failed to stop the decline in the overall market.
thehypocrite
Member
Clearly a thoughtful and substantiated post. You should state what you are referring to if you want.
Edit: New stuff.
PS3 is better than 3DS for Big developers, PSP is better than 3DS for medium to small developers.
However I would say that 3DS & PSP is a better option than just PSP or Vita.
Colonel Mustard
Banned
I'd pay mind to his tag.
Edit: You're claim isn't really justified, you're not thinking of things long-term.
You're being willfully ignorant though. It's much more complicated than "oh, traditional market is collapsing." The wii was a huge player in the industry for its first 4-5 years on the market, and now that's gone. Of course that would contribute to a downward trend. The PSP+DS market has been severely damaged as well due to Vita's flopptastic performance (which can also be explained by several reasons other than a loss of general interest in traditional gaming). We're in a major transition period that will likely persist for at least another year. And then we'll see an upward trend again, as would be expected with every new generation.
It's Chris you are talking to, not some random gamer.
I think the 3DS's strength in Japan at this point is beyond question, what with it breaking the first year's sales record despite the earthquake/tsunami and continuing economic slump.
I could see the PSP going another year after this if companies decide to do a bunch of PSP/3DS/Vita ports, but it certainly won't be anywhere near as strong as it was last year, let alone this year.
I could see the PSP going another year after this if companies decide to do a bunch of PSP/3DS/Vita ports, but it certainly won't be anywhere near as strong as it was last year, let alone this year.
thehypocrite
Member
I read posts, not tags, no disrespect meant to anyone.
We have no idea about the long term, most game developers only need 1 game to bomb to go out of business, the long term in the traditional gaming market isn't as clear as before.
I never attempted to address any of that, I just said that the traditional retail gaming market is contracting (Fact) thus developers will attempt to minimize their risks (Fact). The reasons why and everything else in your post had nothing to do with the point I was trying to make.
AceBandage
Banned
If one game bombing puts you out of business, then you shouldn't be in business to begin with.
Let's look at every week so far this year and compare 3DS and PS3 software sales in the top 50:
PS3 - 80 titles appear between weeks 1 through 9
3DS - 100 titles appear between weeks 1 through 9
3DS also has a substantially smaller installed base. So no, you're wrong.
edit: wait, I might have added the wrong numbers. *goes back to tally again*
edit2: Ok, unless I mistallied again (wholly possible due to PSV PSP and PS3 looking so similar), 3DS is at 100 and PS3 is at 91. I think I skipped a week for PS3 on accident the first time.
What? That's how many small studios start out you know.
Also how many third party million sellers does PS3 have in its 5+ years? Now how about the 3DS?
This is without considering the fact that PS3 games will in aggregate be considerably more expensive to develop, thus requiring better sales (not comparable ones), and also without considering that this gap is likely to widen, as the 3DS rapidly catches the PS3 in install base and eventually moves beyond it. I would guess that the 3DS' lead in this regard is mostly due to the last 4 months, and not due to the first 8, when it had an install base under 2 million. Again, this trend would only increase with time, not decrease.
thehypocrite
Member
You should provide the amount of software sold and Include PSP, Thanks. We are talking about sales after all.
Ignis Fatuus
Banned
You're not doing anything to refute his point and are instead trying to move goalposts further and further until it will be implausible to provide enough information to meet your demands.
If you believe additional information would undermine the persuasive data he just presented, you are the one obligated to find it. Until then he has facts on his side and all you have are requests.
The future for traditional gaming market in Japan is very clear at the moment. Since your mention market shrinking the market will be up again this year.
Keep in mind, adding up top 50 appearances is relative based on how front loaded sales are in the top 10. If the top 10 outsell 11-50 by a factor of 100:1 and there are substantially more PS3 games in the top 10 vs the 3DS, then it paints a completely different picture.
But I'm too lazy to be that in depth. I have class in 30 minutes anyway. I'd say its relatively safe to say though that 3DS has moved more software this year than PS3.
But I'm too lazy to be that in depth. I have class in 30 minutes anyway. I'd say its relatively safe to say though that 3DS has moved more software this year than PS3.
thehypocrite
Member
I had mentioned PSP/3DS and PS3 in the post he quoted, he needed to provide that info for his response to complete, as given it isn't. You cannot ask me to do what he didn't.
Chris1964 said:
Is likely to happen but wholly dependent on the performance of the Wii-U and (to extreme lesser degree) the Vita.
AceBandage
Banned
So they start out and if their first game doesn't meet expectations, they fold?
Sounds like bad planning, to me.
Without Wii U and Vita not recovering it will be up again.
thehypocrite
Member
That's an interesting stance, why do you think the 3DS will carry it?
I'm totally intrigued Chris not trying to be sarcastic.
timetokill
Banned
I really did not expect my statement to be controversial at all. It seems totally clear to me that if you're a Japanese third party looking to develop a new game, in almost any case the 3DS is far and away the least risky choice for you.
Ignis Fatuus
Banned
That's not how it works. He went through the trouble of aggregating data showing that 3DS games have charted high more often than PS3 games. This is information he presented that cannot be factually refuted. Opiate then contextualized that information by explaining that PS3 titles are more expensive to develop and need superior sales to justify further investment, not just comparable sales.
In response to both hard data and reasonable analysis, all you have is "I'm not listening until you get me more numbers that I won't look up myself which may or may not support my argument." At best, you look lazy.
Well, perhaps smartphones these days.
But yeah, unless you have something like Resident Evil 6 or something where the audience simply won't follow like a Nippon Ichi title, I don't know what you would target any dedicated device besides the 3DS.
Software will be way up, hardware almost the same.
Dengeki festival is in like, 4 days
exceedingly unlikely after the performance of ps0
Count Dookkake
Member
Dat 10k.
Well in reality its more along the lines of closing the growth of the gap
Colonel Mustard
Banned
PS 0 wouldn't be a barometer for potential on the 3DS.
slaughterking
Member
In the old times Joshua Slone would tell us how many weeks it would take for the Vita to catch up to the 3DS if the latter stopped selling now
.
frankie_baby
Member
Exceedingly likely as the portable games were riding off the coat tails of monhun and 3ds is the monhun system
Father_Brain
Banned
Considering how limited NI's efforts have been on Nintendo hardware, is there an actual Sales-Age basis for this or just an assumption?
I would say that PS3 is the least risky platform, or at least the platform with higher expected sales for most typical third party games (sports, musou, gundam, rpg, action).
PS3 is the top platform for most third parties in their financial reports and Namco Bandai or Tecmo Koei, for example, are making a killing with their most recent PS3 games.
3DS is quite not there yet in Japan and certainly a lot has to change outside of Japan for the 3DS to become the best fit.
But I can see PS3 winding down next year and 3DS picking up much more then.
I agree, since it was a game with a different importance compared to the first Portable. And still, it did very good for being a not Portable Phantasy Star.
However, HM did not like Divas, not like I was hoping ( 130k ), but still, not bad either. Certainly, we aren't looking at a bomba. Just at a decent result for the first iteration of the brand on a Nintendo hardware, with radical differences from the PSP ones ( especially with the style ).
Really surprised that MGS3D didn't bomba, seriously. It did too much XD
Let's hope Kingdom Hearts 3D does good: looking at Comgnet preorders, they're very low compared to 358/2 days and BbS, which still had something like one year and much greater install bases of people with the platform able of preordering the game...but in these last weeks, I noticed Comgnet preorders aren't following the normal pattern with most of 3DS releases.