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[Psycho_Mantis]

YSO is predicting a +70% drop for the second week of Zelda, usually standard for the type of game it is but the console launch should've soften that.

It could mean less than 100k for Switch during its second week, which isn't very good, though we'd need to see if YSO is on the ball park for the first week prior.

They're also expecting a very good first week for Kingdom Hearts 4.

Damn they already talking about 4 and 3 hasn't even got a release date ;____;

 

[noshten]

Complete failure with my predicitions for Feb

Looks like nier doubled the majority of the predictions. Even nioh seems to have surprised some so that is good news for ps4 software support.

The good thing for both Nier and Nioh is that there is still demand there. Nioh probably has higher digital numbers - since it wasn't readily available and there was a discount. When do the digital numbers usually come out?

 

[sense]

Looks like nier doubled the majority of the predictions. Even nioh seems to have surprised some so that is good news for ps4 software support.

 

[The Last One]

Damn they already talking about 4 and 3 hasn't even got a release date ;____;

1.5 + 2.5

 

[Chris1964]

Week 10, 2017 (Mar 6 - Mar 12)

new releases

{2017.03.07}
[PS4] Unearthing Mars _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Winking Entertainment) (¥1.555)
[XB1] Ultimate Marvel Vs. Capcom 3 _Download Version_ |DL| <FTG> (Capcom) (¥2.780)

{2017.03.08}
[3DS] 6180 the Moon |New Nintendo 3DS| _3DS Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (Rainy Frog) (¥370)

{2017.03.09}
[PSV] Wand of Fortune R2: Jikuu ni Shizumu Mokushiroku # <ADV> (Idea Factory) (¥6.300)
[PSV] Wand of Fortune R2: Jikuu ni Shizumu Mokushiroku (Limited Edition) <ADV> (Idea Factory) (¥8.300)
[PSV] Wand of Fortune R2: Jikuu ni Shizumu Mokushiroku (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Idea Factory) (¥5.800)
[PS4] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands <ADV> (Ubisoft) (¥8.400)
[PS4] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| # <ADV> (Ubisoft) (¥7.500)
[PS4] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| (1)(Deluxe Edition) <ADV> (Ubisoft) (¥8.700)
[PS4] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| (2)(Gold Edition) <ADV> (Ubisoft) (¥12.300)
[PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 + II.5 ReMIX <Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 ReMIX <Kingdom Hearts \ Kingdom Hearts Re:Chain of Memories> \ Kingdom Hearts HD II.5 ReMIX <Kingdom Hearts II \ Kingdom Hearts II: Final Mix+ \ Kingdom Hearts: Birth by Sleep>> <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥6.800)
[PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 + II.5 ReMIX <Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 ReMIX <Kingdom Hearts \ Kingdom Hearts Re:Chain of Memories> \ Kingdom Hearts HD II.5 ReMIX <Kingdom Hearts II \ Kingdom Hearts II: Final Mix+ \ Kingdom Hearts: Birth by Sleep>> (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥6.800)
[PS4] Let It Die <ACT> (GungHo Online Entertainment) (¥6.900)
[PS4] Croixleur &#931; <ACT> (Souvenir Circ.) (¥3.685)
[PS4] Ultimate Marvel Vs. Capcom 3 <FTG> (Capcom) (¥2.990)
[PS4] WWE 2K17 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| # <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) (¥5.800)
[PS4] WWE 2K17 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| (Digital Deluxe Edition) <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) (¥8.700)
[PS4] Figureheads _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Square Enix) (¥0)
[XB1] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands <ADV> (Ubisoft) (¥8.400)
[XB1] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands (&#949 _Download Version_ |DL| # <ADV> (Ubisoft) (¥7.500)
[XB1] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands (&#949 _Download Version_ |DL| (1)(Deluxe Edition) <ADV> (Ubisoft) (¥8.700)
[XB1] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands (&#949 _Download Version_ |DL| (2)(Gold Edition) <ADV> (Ubisoft) (¥12.300)
[XB1] WWE 2K17 _Download Version_ |DL| # <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) (¥5.800)
[XB1] WWE 2K17 _Download Version_ |DL| (Digital Deluxe Edition) <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) (¥8.700)

{2017.03.10}
[PS4] Blue Rider _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <STG> (EastAsiaSoft) (¥1.185)
___

YSO predictions

01. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 + II.5 ReMIX < 75k (average 65k)
02. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands < 70k (average 60k)
03. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild < 60k (average 50k)

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

What would be a good number for Nier next week?

 

[LordKano]

What would be a good number for Nier next week?

It's a JRPG so a huge drop is expected, so...35-40k ?

 

[Eolz]

YSO is predicting a +70% drop for the second week of Zelda, usually standard for the type of game it is but the console launch should've soften that.

It could mean less than 100k for Switch during its second week, which isn't very good, though we'd need to see if YSO is on the ball park for the first week prior.

They're also expecting a very good first week for Kingdom Hearts 4.

I feel that Zelda might get a big drop, but it's linked to the console stock as well. If shipments were about the same...
It'll likely have better legs than some other titles anyway.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Week 10, 2017 (Mar 6 - Mar 12)

new releases

{2017.03.07}
[PS4] Unearthing Mars _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Winking Entertainment) (¥1.555)
[XB1] Ultimate Marvel Vs. Capcom 3 _Download Version_ |DL| <FTG> (Capcom) (¥2.780)

{2017.03.08}
[3DS] 6180 the Moon |New Nintendo 3DS| _3DS Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (Rainy Frog) (¥370)

{2017.03.09}
[PSV] Wand of Fortune R2: Jikuu ni Shizumu Mokushiroku # <ADV> (Idea Factory) (¥6.300)
[PSV] Wand of Fortune R2: Jikuu ni Shizumu Mokushiroku (Limited Edition) <ADV> (Idea Factory) (¥8.300)
[PSV] Wand of Fortune R2: Jikuu ni Shizumu Mokushiroku (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Idea Factory) (¥5.800)
[PS4] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands <ADV> (Ubisoft) (¥8.400)
[PS4] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| # <ADV> (Ubisoft) (¥7.500)
[PS4] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| (1)(Deluxe Edition) <ADV> (Ubisoft) (¥8.700)
[PS4] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| (2)(Gold Edition) <ADV> (Ubisoft) (¥12.300)
[PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 + II.5 ReMIX <Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 ReMIX <Kingdom Hearts \ Kingdom Hearts Re:Chain of Memories> \ Kingdom Hearts HD II.5 ReMIX <Kingdom Hearts II \ Kingdom Hearts II: Final Mix+ \ Kingdom Hearts: Birth by Sleep>> <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥6.800)
[PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 + II.5 ReMIX <Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 ReMIX <Kingdom Hearts \ Kingdom Hearts Re:Chain of Memories> \ Kingdom Hearts HD II.5 ReMIX <Kingdom Hearts II \ Kingdom Hearts II: Final Mix+ \ Kingdom Hearts: Birth by Sleep>> (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥6.800)
[PS4] Let It Die <ACT> (GungHo Online Entertainment) (¥6.900)
[PS4] Croixleur &#931; <ACT> (Souvenir Circ.) (¥3.685)
[PS4] Ultimate Marvel Vs. Capcom 3 <FTG> (Capcom) (¥2.990)
[PS4] WWE 2K17 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| # <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) (¥5.800)
[PS4] WWE 2K17 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| (Digital Deluxe Edition) <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) (¥8.700)
[PS4] Figureheads _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Square Enix) (¥0)
[XB1] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands <ADV> (Ubisoft) (¥8.400)
[XB1] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands (&#949 _Download Version_ |DL| # <ADV> (Ubisoft) (¥7.500)
[XB1] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands (&#949 _Download Version_ |DL| (1)(Deluxe Edition) <ADV> (Ubisoft) (¥8.700)
[XB1] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands (&#949 _Download Version_ |DL| (2)(Gold Edition) <ADV> (Ubisoft) (¥12.300)
[XB1] WWE 2K17 _Download Version_ |DL| # <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) (¥5.800)
[XB1] WWE 2K17 _Download Version_ |DL| (Digital Deluxe Edition) <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) (¥8.700)

{2017.03.10}
[PS4] Blue Rider _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <STG> (EastAsiaSoft) (¥1.185)
___

YSO predictions

01. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 + II.5 ReMIX < 75k (average 65k)
02. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands < 70k (average 60k)
03. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild < 60k (average 50k)

Is this week 2 for Zelda? Could this mean <100k for NSW?

 

[Mory Dunz]

Is this week 2 for Zelda? Could this mean <100k for NSW?

The Okami post you already replied to said both of those things lol

 

[Chris1964]

Even if there are indeed supply problems right now, because of limited FY forecast, everything will be clear for Switch hype after March.

 

[Mpl90]

Still, we should all remember how YSO's forecasts are just forecasts, even if they're surely better at them than the Pachters of this world

 

[noobie]

Damn, did pretty bad predictions this month, outside of Nioh where I was the closest!
Congrats noobie!

Thanks. I wasn't expecting it after seeing the first week sales of Nioh

 

[Ōkami]

1. [PS4] Horizon: Zero Dawn (Limited Edition) - 265
2. [SWI] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 202
3. [SWI] 1 2 Switch - 133
4. [PS4] NieR: Automata - 93
5. [WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 75
6. [SWI] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Collector's Edition) - 56
7. [SWI] Super Bomberman R - 40
8. [SWI] Dragon Quest Heroes I & II for Nintendo Switch - 27
9. [3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3 - Professional - 25
10. [3DS] Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS - 24
11. [PSV] Super Robot Wars V - 22
12. [PS4] Nioh - 19
13. [PS4] Super Robot Wars V - 16
14. [PSV] Super Robot Wars V (Premium Anime Song & Sound Edition) - 15
15. [SWI] Puyo Puyo Tetris S - 14
16. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege - 14
17. [PS4] Winning Post 8 2017 - 13
18. [PS4] For Honor - 15
19. [PS4] Horizon: Zero Dawn - 11
20. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] - 11

Preorders
[3DS] Monster Hunter XX - 1005
[PS4] Gran Turismo Sport - 69
[SWI] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 59
[PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 + II.5 Remix - 43
[PS4] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands - 42
[PSV] Accel World vs. Sword Art Online: Millennium Twilight - 38
[3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes Ultimate Mission X - 35
[PS4] Accel World vs. Sword Art Online: Millennium Twilight - 32
[PS4] Senran Kagura: Peach Beach Splash - 28
[PS4] Blue Reflection - 24
[PSV] Nights of Azure 2 - 22
[PS4] Musou Stars - 19
[PS4] Nights of Azure 2 - 19
[PSV] Blue Reflection - 15
[PSV] Re: Zero - Death or Kiss - 10
[PS4] Tekken 7 - 9

Hope that comnet got few units or something and isn't representative of all of Japan because those are dreadful numbers for all Switch games.

 

[Mpl90]

1. [PS4] Horizon: Zero Dawn (Limited Edition) - 265
2. [SWI] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 202
3. [SWI] 1 2 Switch - 133
4. [PS4] NieR: Automata - 93
5. [WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 75
6. [SWI] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Collector's Edition) - 56
7. [SWI] Super Bomberman R - 40
8. [SWI] Dragon Quest Heroes I & II for Nintendo Switch - 27
9. [3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3 - Professional - 25
10. [3DS] Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS - 24
11. [PSV] Super Robot Wars V - 22
12. [PS4] Nioh - 19
13. [PS4] Super Robot Wars V - 16
14. [PSV] Super Robot Wars V (Premium Anime Song & Sound Edition) - 15
15. [SWI] Puyo Puyo Tetris S - 14
16. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege - 14
17. [PS4] Winning Post 8 2017 - 13
18. [PS4] For Honor - 15
19. [PS4] Horizon: Zero Dawn - 11
20. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] - 11

Preorders
[3DS] Monster Hunter XX - 1005
[PS4] Gran Turismo Sport - 69
[SWI] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 59
[PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 + II.5 Remix - 43
[PS4] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands - 42
[PSV] Accel World vs. Sword Art Online: Millennium Twilight - 38
[3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes Ultimate Mission X - 35
[PS4] Accel World vs. Sword Art Online: Millennium Twilight - 32
[PS4] Senran Kagura: Peach Beach Splash - 28
[PS4] Blue Reflection - 24
[PSV] Nights of Azure 2 - 22
[PS4] Musou Stars - 19
[PS4] Nights of Azure 2 - 19
[PSV] Blue Reflection - 15
[PSV] Re: Zero - Death or Kiss - 10
[PS4] Tekken 7 - 9

Hope that comnet got few units or something and isn't representative of all of Japan because those are dreadful numbers for all Switch games.

Several games saw preorder points being higher than actual points, which is the complete opposite of the norm (Bomberman saw an extremely small increase from preorders to sales). That usually happens when the stock isn't sufficient to satisfy preorders. I'm also checking what happened with other recent launches at Comgnet for a better comparison.

 

[Principate]

1. [PS4] Horizon: Zero Dawn (Limited Edition) - 265
2. [SWI] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 202
3. [SWI] 1 2 Switch - 133
4. [PS4] NieR: Automata - 93
5. [WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 75
6. [SWI] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Collector's Edition) - 56
7. [SWI] Super Bomberman R - 40
8. [SWI] Dragon Quest Heroes I & II for Nintendo Switch - 27
9. [3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3 - Professional - 25
10. [3DS] Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS - 24
11. [PSV] Super Robot Wars V - 22
12. [PS4] Nioh - 19
13. [PS4] Super Robot Wars V - 16
14. [PSV] Super Robot Wars V (Premium Anime Song & Sound Edition) - 15
15. [SWI] Puyo Puyo Tetris S - 14
16. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege - 14
17. [PS4] Winning Post 8 2017 - 13
18. [PS4] For Honor - 15
19. [PS4] Horizon: Zero Dawn - 11
20. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] - 11

Preorders
[3DS] Monster Hunter XX - 1005
[PS4] Gran Turismo Sport - 69
[SWI] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 59
[PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 + II.5 Remix - 43
[PS4] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands - 42
[PSV] Accel World vs. Sword Art Online: Millennium Twilight - 38
[3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes Ultimate Mission X - 35
[PS4] Accel World vs. Sword Art Online: Millennium Twilight - 32
[PS4] Senran Kagura: Peach Beach Splash - 28
[PS4] Blue Reflection - 24
[PSV] Nights of Azure 2 - 22
[PS4] Musou Stars - 19
[PS4] Nights of Azure 2 - 19
[PSV] Blue Reflection - 15
[PSV] Re: Zero - Death or Kiss - 10
[PS4] Tekken 7 - 9

Hope that comnet got few units or something and isn't representative of all of Japan because those are dreadful numbers for all Switch games.

Is this first week? Honestly doesn't seem that bad if I'm using the right ratios. I mean 250k for Zelda switch 133k for 12 switch 40k bomberman etc. For launch of a system that selling around 300k probably seems to be what I expected.

 

[Ōkami]

Is this first week? Honestly doesn't seem that bad if I'm using the right ratios.

You're not.

 

[Principate]

You're not.

What ratios you use then

I mean Zelda has a predicted 80% attach rate from initial reports. Assuming thst was consistent at least that number doesn't seem far off.

 

[Ōkami]

What ratios you use then

I mean Zelda has a predicted 80% attach rate from predicted reports. Assuming thst was consistent at least that number doesn't seem far off.

There are no right ratios but 1 point in comgnet doesn't traslate to 1.000 units sold.

Last week Nier did over 330 points in comgnet and sold less than 200k.

 

[Principate]

There are no right ratios but 1 point in comgnet doesn't traslate to 1.000 units sold.

Last week Nier did over 330 points in comgnet and sold less than 200k.

Well yeah it varies a lot but not substantially enough that it a strange barometer. I mean these are ballparks not any sorts of accurate predictions I'm using here. E.g for Zelda I'm expecting over 200k etc. Just fast maths for ballparks

 

[Kresnik258]

What ratios you use then

I mean Zelda has a predicted 80% attach rate from initial reports. Assuming thst was consistent at least that number doesn't seem far off.

There are no consistent ratios. I'm probably going to be slated for this, but a general rule of thumb is 1:1000 for pre-orders and 1:500 for the weekly.

But that doesn't really work for supply constrained launches.

 

[Principate]

There are no consistent ratios. I'm probably going to be slated for this, but a general rule of thumb is 1:1000 for pre-orders and 1:500 for the weekly.

But that doesn't really work for supply constrained launches.

That makes sense. Mixed up the pre-orders and actuals then.

 

[Eolz]

Woah, forgot they they didn't mix collector and regular editions.

 

[thestopsign]

Looks like Horizon might do really well. It may be over or close to 150k first week.

I would be surprised if Zelda doesn't do above 200k on Switch (if the Switch is over 300k), so I think the ratio is probably a bit messed up. Maybe not though.

 

[Jimmyfenix]

Looks like Horizon might do really well. It may be over or close to 150k first week.

Pretty comparable to how Uncharted does first week in japan right?

 

[thestopsign]

Pretty comparable to how Uncharted does first week in japan right?

01./00. [PS4] Uncharted 4: A Thief's End # <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2016.05.10} (¥7.900) - 128.724 / NEW <75,55%>

 

[Arzehn]

Those are really good comgnet points for Horizon...

Wonder if comgnet didn't get a lot of Switch's because those software points are pretty bad. Still expecting numbers to be closer to YSO's predictions for Switch software.

Haven't been following comgnet as closely as of late but generally it's been preorder ratio 1pt:1k, purchased ratio 1pt:0.55k. At least on the Sony side. Nintendo's stuff has always been more random though.

That said I doubt Horizon sold 150k

 

[Mpl90]

Technically, Okami is right. When we're comparing sales points (not preorder points) with actual sales, a more accurate statement would be that 1 Comgnet sale point = 500-600 copies on average, historically; it also depends on the kind of game. Still, while I didn't give a detailed look, the Comgn preorders / actual sales ratio has generally diminished in the past few years, even considerably so, and I wouldn't be surprised if the same is happening for the Comg sales/actual sales one as well.

However, as I already pointed out, several Switch items ended up with more preorder points than sales points, which usually translates into stock problems / incapacity of fulfilling preorders.

Also, I've checked what happened at the past launches and I found out that...Comgnet's extremely guilty in this department.

3DS

Final Comgnet preorder day

[3DS] Professor Layton and the Mask of Miracles - 189pt
[3DS] Super Street Fighter IV 3D Edition - 61pt
[3DS] Samurai Warriors Chronicles - 58pt
[3DS] Nintendogs + Cats: Golden Retrivier & New Friends - 40pt*
[3DS] Ridge Racer 3D - 37pt
[3DS] Pro Evolution Soccer 3D - 32pt

Comgnet weekly sales

[3DS] Professor Layton and the miracle mask - 139pt
[3DS] Samurai Warriors Chronicle - 80pt
[3DS] Super Street Fighter IV 3D EDITION - 67pt
[3DS] Ridge Racer 3D - 39pt
[3DS] nintendogs cats toy poodle & New Friends - 36pt*

Actual first week sales (Media Create)

03. / 00. [3DS] Professor Layton and the Mask of Miracle (Level 5) {2011.02.26} - 119.591 / NEW
05. / 00. [3DS] Nintendogs + Cats (French Bulldog, Shiba, Toy Poodle & New Friends) (Nintendo) {2011.02.26} - 64.213 / NEW *
06. / 00. [3DS] Samurai Warriors: Chronicles (Koei Tecmo) {2011.02.26} - 49.327 / NEW
07. / 00. [3DS] Super Street Fighter IV: 3D Edition (Capcom) {2011.02.26} - 44.649 / NEW
08. / 00. [3DS] Ridge Racer 3D (Bandai Namco) {2011.02.26} - 38.226 / NEW
15. / 00. [3DS] Winning Eleven 3DSoccer (Konami) {2011.02.26} - 24.556 / NEW

*preorders and weekly Comgnet sales based on separated SKUs, while MC sales are combined

PSV

Final Comgnet preorder day

[PSV] Hot Shots Golf 6 - 59pt
[PSV] Uncharted: Golden Abyss - 45pt
[PSV] Disgaea 3: Absence of Detention - 34pt
[PSV] Dynasty Warriors Next - 33pt

Comgnet weekly sales

[PSV]Minna no GOLF6 &#8211; 68pt
[PSV]Uncharted: &#8211; 54pt

every other Vita title lower / at 42pt at max

Actual first week sales

07./00. [PSV] Hot Shots Golf: World Invitational <SPT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2011.12.17} (¥4.980) - 61.412 / NEW
08./00. [PSV] Uncharted: Golden Abyss <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2011.12.17} (¥5.980) - 48.224 / NEW
18./00. [PSV] Dynasty Warriors Next <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) {2011.12.17} (¥6.090) - 29.181 / NEW
19./00. [PSV] Lord of Apocalypse <RPG> (Square Enix) {2011.12.17} (¥5.980) - 28.742 / NEW

WIU

Final comgnet preorder day

[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U - 200pt
[WIU] Monster Hunter 3G HD Version - 75pt*
[WIU] Nintendo Land - 54pt

Comgnet weekly sales

[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U - 138Pt
[WIU] Monster Hunter 3G HD Ver. - 58Pt*
[WIU] Nintendo Land - 57Pt
[WIU] ZombieU (zombie U) - 16pt

Actual first week sales (Media Create)

02./00. [WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U <ACT> (Nintendo) {2012.12.08} (¥5.985) - 163.528 / NEW
04./00. [WIU] Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate # <ACT> (Capcom) {2012.12.08} (¥4.800) - 106.388 / NEW*
06./00. [WIU] Nintendo Land <ETC> (Nintendo) {2012.12.08} (¥4.935) - 72.121 / NEW
15./00. [WIU] ZombiU <ACT> (Ubisoft) {2012.12.08} (¥6.980) - 13.000 / NEW

* Comgnet probably did not include bundle preorders in their own points

PS4

Final Comgnet preorder day

[PS4] Yakuza: Ishin! - 80pt
[PS4] Battlefield 4 - 35pt
[PS4] Killzone: Shadow Fall - 21pt

Comgnet weekly sales

[PS4] Yakuza Ishin! - 111pt
[PS4] Battlefield 4 - 54pt
[PS4] Killzone Shadow Fall - 42pt
[PS4] Dynasty Warriors 7 - 26pt
[PS4] Assassin's Creed 4 Black Flag - 21pt
[PS4] Call of Duty Ghosts - 18pt
[PS4] Tomb Raider Definitive Edition - 15pt

Actual first week sales (Media Create)

03./00. [PS4] Yakuza: Ishin! <ADV> (Sega) {2014.02.22} (¥8.600) - 82.540 / NEW
07./00. [PS4] Killzone: Shadow Fall <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2014.02.22} (¥7.245) - 32.336 / NEW
08./00. [PS4] Battlefield 4 <ACT> (Electronic Arts) {2014.02.22} (¥7.665) - 24.799 / NEW
11./00. [PS4] Dynasty Warriors 8 with Xtreme Legends <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) {2014.02.22} (¥8.190) - 14.356 / NEW
13./00. [PS4] Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag <ACT> (Ubisoft) {2014.02.22} (¥8.820) - 13.862 / NEW
14./00. [PS4] Call of Duty: Ghosts - Dubbed Edition <ACT> (Square Enix) {2014.02.22} (¥7.980) - 13.701 / NEW
15./00. [PS4] Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition <ADV> (Square Enix) {2014.02.22} (¥4.800) - 12.093 / NEW
18./00. [PS4] FIFA 14 <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2014.02.22} (¥7.665) - 8.808 / NEW

SWI

Final Comgnet preorder day

[SWI] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 205pt
[SWI] 1 2 Switch - 136pt
[SWI] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (LE) - 63pt
[SWI] Super Bomberman R - 32pt
[SWI] Dragon Quest Heroes I-II for Nintendo Switch - 30pt

Comgnet weekly sales

[SWI] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 202
[SWI] 1 2 Switch - 133
[SWI] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Collector's Edition) - 56
[SWI] Super Bomberman R - 40
[SWI] Dragon Quest Heroes I & II for Nintendo Switch - 27
[SWI] Puyo Puyo Tetris S - 14

Actual first week sales (Media Create)

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Yas, Horizon.

 

[hiska-kun]

Thanks Mpl90.

So I don't think we can get any conclusion regarding Switch launch with these numbers.

 

[OfficerRaichu15]

Why do I have a feeling Switch numbers will be lower than expected :/

 

[Pinky]

Why do I have a feeling Switch numbers will be lower than expected :/

So, we'll see 5 days of sales correct? Friday thru Tuesday?

 

[hiska-kun]

Why do I have a feeling Switch numbers will be lower than expected :/

All depends on how many units Nintendo shipped. Switch has been sold out since Friday in Japan, and as far as I know, no new shipments arrived the following days.

So, we'll see 5 days of sales correct? Friday thru Tuesday?

What the f***. Why would anyone track until tuesday? Beats me.

 

[Vena]

Why do I have a feeling Switch numbers will be lower than expected :/

I mean, they are higher than expected in that they are thoroughly sold out.

 

[madstarr12]

Why do I have a feeling Switch numbers will be lower than expected :/

Lower than members on gaming forums expected maybe. But considering the situation with stock right now, certainly higher than expected for retailers. But I can see it now:

GAF expectations of sales: 350K

Retail Shipments: ~300K
Retail Sales: close to 300K

GAF reaction: "OMG, complete bomba! Nintendo is doomed as usual"

 

[Eolz]

Lower than members on gaming forums expected maybe. But considering the situation with stock right now, certainly higher than expected for retailers. But I can see it now:

GAF expectations of sales: 350K

Retail Shipments: ~300K
Retail Sales: close to 300K

GAF reaction: "OMG, complete bomba! Nintendo is doomed as usual"

Don't forget not looking at comparisons after that too.

 

[hiska-kun]

Tsutaya's Ranking Week 9 2017

01./00. [PS4] Horizon: Zero Dawn [First Limited Edition] <ADV> (Sony Interactive Entertainment)
02./00. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild <ADV> (Nintendo)
03./00. [NSW] 1-2-Switch <ETC> (Nintendo)
04./01. [PS4] NieR: Automata <RPG> (Square Enix)
05./00. [NSW] Super Bomberman R <ACT> (Konami)
06./00. [WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild <ADV> (Nintendo) (¥6.980)
07./00. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Collector's Edition) <ADV> (Nintendo)
08./07. [3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3 - Professional <RPG> (Square Enix)
09./00. [NSW] Dragon Quest Heroes I & II for Nintendo Switch <RPG> (Square Enix)
10./06. [PS4] Nioh <ACT> (Koei Tecmo)
11./02. [PSV] Super Robot Wars V <SLG> (Bandai Namco Games)
12./03. [PS4] Super Robot Wars V <SLG> (Bandai Namco Games)
13./00. [NSW] Puyo Puyo Tetris <PZL> (Sega)
14./00. [PS4] Horizon: Zero Dawn [Regular Edition] <ADV> (Sony Interactive Entertainment)
15./08. [PS4] For Honor <ACT> (Ubisoft)
16./00. [PS4] Winning Post 8 2017 <SLG> (Koei Tecmo)
17./05. [PSV] Super Robot Wars V (AniSong Sound Edition) <SLG> (Bandai Namco Games)
18./14. [3DS] Pokemon Sun <RPG> (Pokemon Co.)
19./04. [PS4] Super Robot Wars V (AniSong Sound Edition) <SLG> (Bandai Namco Games)
20./17. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan)

 

[Obliterator]

Whoa, Horizon is tracking to have a pretty good / big opening for a Western title its looking like. I didn't know there was much interest in the game in Japan but its kinda looking like it

 

[Sangetsu-II]

Will Horizon sell more than Zelda?

 

[LifeBrandRobot]

Whoa, Horizon is tracking to have a pretty good / big opening for a Western title its looking like. I didn't know there was much interest in the game in Japan but its kinda looking like it

Is... is... Aloy considered a waifu in Japan

It also doesn't hurt that the game has Mon Hun inspirations.

 

[Sharpeye]

Whoa, Horizon is tracking to have a pretty good / big opening for a Western title its looking like. I didn't know there was much interest in the game in Japan but its kinda looking like it

Horizon seems like the type of game that would appeal to Japanese gamers, this bodes well for its worldwide sales too if its a hit in Japan.

 

[Sangetsu-II]

Horizon seems like the type of game that would appeal to Japanese gamers, this bodes well for its worldwide sales too if its a hit in Japan.

Totally forgot Japan is into Mechas, yep definitely see Horizon selling well there now.

 

[Obliterator]

Will Horizon sell more than Zelda?

It's looking like it might be possible it out does the Switch version. (But even that I doubt)

No way it outsells Switch + Wii U

 

[duckroll]

If Horizon outsells Zelda I'll screenshot myself eating Dubious Food in BotW.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

This is a timeline where Nier outsells Resident Evil, anything is possible lol.

 

[Ōkami]

Tsutaya is usually more reliable than comgnet, it really seems like Horizon could at least sell more than Zelda during the first week, after that its up for grabs.

Horizon should at least see the best first week for a Sony game since Bloodborne.

Out of the big PS4 games for the year so far, all but Resident Evil 7 will do above expectations.

 

[Obliterator]

Tsutaya is usually more reliable than comgnet, it really seems like Horizon could at least sell more than Zelda during the first week, after that its up for grabs.

Horizon should at least see the best first week for a Sony game since Bloodborne.

Out of the big PS4 games for the year so far, all but Resident Evil 7 will do above expectations.

Yeah its the fact that Tsutaya and Comgnet both have Horizon on top that's surprising me. That will be crazy if Horizon actually tops it

 

[Oxn]

It's looking like it might be possible it out does the Switch version. (But even that I doubt)

No way it outsells Switch + Wii U

First week maybe Horizon will beat Zelda Switch, but i think over time (actually im certain) Zelda switch will outsell it.

 

[Mory Dunz]

My PREDICTION LEAGUE prediction for Horizon was higher than the average here, at 135k.

Now I'm wondering if it's too low. Dang.

I also had a lower Zelda prediction than most at 325k so we'll see about that...

 

[Mr. Pointy]

So does Horizon have more than 200k FW in it?