I think one of the bigger problems people aren't talking enough about is exactly
when would be the right time for Nintendo to release a new console?
I already have my personal idea for what their new direction should be for their next console, but when do they release it?
If they do a short life cycle for Wii U (4 years? They can't go earlier than that) that leaves them launching the successor in 2016. Which is probably the prime of the PS4 and Xbone. Does it make sense to launch a new console 2 or even 3 years before the competition?
If they do a standard life cycle for Wii U (5-6 years), that brings them closer to PS5/Xbtwo launch, for sure... but man, I can't imagine having to endure the Wii U for another 4 or 5 years at this point. I don't know what notable software they can possibly have in 2016, let alone 2017 or 2018.
what I'm trying to say is... Nintendo is kinda fucked in this regard. Grind it out, or mercy kill it in 2 years just when PS4/Xbone are hitting their stride?
Anyone have any ideas? lol
Yup, it's a god damned hard one to figure out that's for sure. There's a few options I can see (Just like you).
1) Kill it early, and I mean in the next year ish. Attempt to get onto the HD2 generation like PS4/XBO
2) Wait for 4 years, kill it and come out mid gen of the other two with a similar system.
3) Wait 6-7 years and come out closer to when the PS5/XBT might* be coming with tech of that level.
4) Bail out of the console business and kill Wii U at their leisure
5) Don't give a shit and make something truly unique again so you're not "competing" and come out when you feel like it. Maybe in another 2-3 years.
1 - Too much money lost on R&D. Terrible, terrible goodwill with consumers. And quite frankly impossible to do in such a short time frame without half-arsing it.
2 - This is a very risky one as it puts them in a position similar to Wii U. They don't want to find themselves releasing a similar system when there are two incumbents with massive install bases. For this to work they'd have to really get third parties on board so that when it launched, it started getting ALL the games. However, what happens 2-3 years later when PS5/XBO come out. Does Wii U 2 support die? They'd have to future proof to some degree but again that is costly and the tech might not be there (For a good price)
3 - Again, similar to 2, but at least in lockstep with tech. They'd have to basically bleed money to get third parties on board though as they have a lot to prove. However, this I think is doable for them if they have great supporting services and have a common platform amongst all their devices - i.e. a fully realised ecosystem. They would also have to some how get profitable.
4 - And lose what has been a profitable revenue stream for most of the last 25+ years? Unlikely I think.
5 - Try and make something that people want and have never seen before. Something that's interesting and different and gets them excited like the Wii.
6 - Change the game by moving to company with more devices and/or released more regularly (Yearly or biennially) or going Steam Machine in the sense of upgradable PC like systems.
As much as I don't want it, I think 5 really seems like the one Nintendo would go for. They are terrified of competing with Sony and MS and in reality they have done so much damage to their relations with third parties and core gamers, winning them back would likely seem to them to be both difficult, and costly.
If however, they wanted stop being trumped constantly by all these new devices and at the same time be different to Sony and MS, #6 *might* work. They'd have to get so much aligned right for the package to come together and I'm not sure they have the balls to do it but I can envision something like this working for them.
They could change how they market their brand. No longer so much the "fun for family" even though their games still would be, but play up their heritage. Giving their franchises the limelight and hype they deserve with their own yearly events. Talking up "Nintendo" and leveraging their rich history of videogames and making people proud to own Nintendo stuff. Be bold and proud of what they have then iterate more regularly on the hardware. Figure out some way to train people to be used to the idea of going out and buying Nintendo's new VR headset, or enhanced storage, GPU or hell, even a whole console upgrade but ensure all games can play on older versions (to a certain point). It's all about expectations and training your customers just as Apple did then not fucking them over. The slow upgraders can take their time but the keen bastards like us can get into it more regularly.
I know I sound insane and there are so many possible things that can go wrong and holes that'd need filling, but I'm trying to think crazy here because whatever Nintendo have been doing is not working and they need something that gets them out of this shithole but still maintains their core value of uniqueness. Personally I would LOVE it. Assuming they started getting third parties again and built themselves a great ecosystem, I would have no problem upgrading my consoles or part thereof more regularly - say every 2 years instead of 6 - at the right value of course.
I'll head back to my padded cell now.