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NPD HW Predictions for 2017 (entire year) - Closes Feb 3

D

donny2112

Member
This thread is for predictions of U.S. Hardware sales as reported by NPD (or estimations thereof where no public data is available) for the entire 2017 year (January-December 2017).

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the upcoming year.
What do I win?: Bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Friday, February 3rd. (This gives it some separation from the monthly thread.) Format use is absolutely required.

Do not use decimal points or "m"/"million" in your predictions. If you predict over 1 million for a system, you can use 1000K or more to get to your prediction. Be careful to use the appropriate number of place values so you don't over or understate your predictions by a factor of 10. People who have such outliers will be disqualified.

Format to use for predictions:

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

Good

[XB1] 4500K
[XB1] 4500000
[XB1] 4,500,000

Bad

[XB1] 4.500.000
[XB1] 4.5 million
[XB1] 4.5m
[XB1] - 4.5 m
XB1 - 4 million

2016 Results
Welfare said:
Rounding to the nearest 10k

PS4 - 5090K
XB1 - 4730K
3DS - 2470K
Click to expand...
WIU - 665K*

* Not all numbers were publicly available throughout the year, so using #1 predictor for missing month to fill in gaps.

2015 Results
Welfare said:
Rounding to the nearest 10k

PS4 - 5740K
XB1 - 4940K
3DS - 2420K
WIU - 1340K
Click to expand...

2014 Results*
[PS4] 4680K
[XB1] 4360K
[3DS] 2580K
[WIU] 1570K
[360] 1320K
[PS3] 740K
Click to expand...

* Not all numbers were publicly available throughout the year, so using #1 predictor for missing month to fill in gaps.


Potentially significant sales-related events for 2017
(No guarantee these'll all happen in 2017. Also, this list is not meant to be comprehensive.)

NSW - Launch March 3rd; Zelda: Breath of the Wild; Splatoon 2; Mario Odyssey
XB1 - Scorpio launching in Fall; Price drop on regular and XB1s models
PS4 - Price drop on regular and PS4Pro models; FFVIIR

2016 NPD Prediction Thread
2015 NPD Prediction Thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
[NSW] 3200K
[PS4] 5100K
[XB1] 4600K

Very likely to update these. I think Scorpio is going to cost more than a lot of people want to believe, and Switch will have a hard time selling year one outside of March and Holiday. I think Sony will get smarter with bundles and we will see some more momentum once they actually start offering more options for North America consumers.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Major guesses right now.

[XB1] 5200K
[PS4] 4800K
[NSW] 4400K

Right now, I think the Scorpio launch will give XB1 the win at the end of the year and Switch will do very well for its first year. PS4 will also hold well from last year.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Talax said:
Looking at past years' results, what caused the decline in yearly sales of PS4?
Click to expand...

Results rounded to nearest 10K

Q1 (January - March)
2015: 860K
2016: 965K (+12%)

Q2 (April - June)
2015: 690K
2016: 620K (-10%)

Q3 (July - September)
2015: 780K
2016: 610K (-22%)

Q4 (October - December)
2015: 3400K
2016: 2900K (-15%)

Q1 2016 was helped by the fact that the PS4 received its first price drop back in October 2015, so it was $349 compared to $399 in Q1 2015. After that though the PS4 dropped in Q2 to only be flat in April and May while being down massively in June.

The only months in 2016 where the PS4 was up from 2015

January (+22%)
February (+18%)
May (+36%)

March and April are "up" but only by 300 and 200 units respectively.

Nothing "big" released in 2016 compared to 2015 so unit sales suffered. We might also be back to consoles peaking in their second year.
 
H

hanspampel

Banned
[PS4] 4950K +/- 250K
[XB1] 5250K +/- 250k
[NSW] 3500K +/- 500k

I expect ps4 to be down over 2016 in the first half of 2017. Q1 last year was just too strong. Second half of 2017 should look much better. Manly because of strong software and potential bundles. RDR2, Destiny 2, star war battlefront 2 and the next cod being foots on the ground again.
I also expect holiday 2017 to beat 2016, but not 2015

For xbox, I expect the xbox one s momentum to continue and the first half of 2017 to be up over 2016.
The exact Scorpio launch date and price is not known, but a boost on sales will happen. I can see xbox one having it's best holiday yet and surpass 2014 by a good margin.
However I don't expect anything crazy yet and sales close to 6m.

Switch is just a random guess without many thoughts. Hence the bigger range. It should do fairly well in the first year, but less than ps4 or xbox one.
Switch will have the launch period and fist holiday in the same calendar year. that is one of the reason, i see it selling a bigger number of units.

vivekTO said:
Is it even Legal to do prediction like that , or are you gonna update the +/- Thing?
Click to expand...
For this "prediction game" donny will just use the flat numbers and ignore the +/-
It's impossible to predict the exact amount something will sell (ofc you can be lucky), hence I give a range. I just prefer it that way
 
J

jjonez18

Member
[XB1] 5250K
[PS4] 5300K
[NSW] 3750K

PS4 carried by pricecuts, exclusives here and there, and huge 3rd party partnerships. XB1S has all the momentum and Scorpio will give MS an impressive boost during the holidays. The lost ground during the first half of the year keeps them from claiming the top spot. Switch launches to a cool million. Sells decently with low stock for a couple months. Has a respectable holiday season.

I think KHIII should be the new FF vs XIII in the hardware impact section for PS4. A new tradition begins.
 
T

Talax

Member
Welfare said:
Results rounded to nearest 10K

Q1 (January - March)
2015: 860K
2016: 965K (+12%)

Q2 (April - June)
2015: 690K
2016: 620K (-10%)

Q3 (July - September)
2015: 780K
2016: 610K (-22%)

Q4 (October - December)
2015: 3400K
2016: 2900K (-15%)

Q1 2016 was helped by the fact that the PS4 received its first price drop back in October 2015, so it was $349 compared to $399 in Q1 2015. After that though the PS4 dropped in Q2 to only be flat in April and May while being down massively in June.

The only months in 2016 where the PS4 was up from 2015

January (+22%)
February (+18%)
May (+36%)

March and April are "up" but only by 300 and 200 units respectively.

Nothing "big" released in 2016 compared to 2015 so unit sales suffered. We might also be back to consoles peaking in their second year.
Click to expand...
I see. So it was more related to what released in 2015 and 2016. I personally liked 2016 releases more so was kinda surprised. Thanks for all that info!
 
J

jryi

Senior Analyst, Fanboy Drivel Research Partners LLC
I don't know if I can muster the energy to participate every month, but once a year could be a slow enough pace for me to join the fun.

I guess both PS4 and Xbone have peaked, they already are on a downward trend and I don't believe that with basic models holding the games back either Pro or Scorpio can change the trajectory.

I'm sceptical about Switch faring any better than Wii U did. Granted, the response has been more positive, but still, it doesn't really offer much beyond its predecessor.

[NSW] 2790K
[PS4] 4885K
[XB1] 4550K
 
D

Darth Smurf X

Member
[PS4] 5000K
[XB1] 4800K
[NSW] 3000K

Nintendo Switch will be popular, but Nintendo does NOT know how to produce hardware to meet demand, so that's why my prediction is low for them.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
[PS4] 5100K
[XB1] 4500K
[NSW] 4000K

I think the Scorpio will give a boost to the XB1 fam in Nov, but not enough to offset a drop in sales in Sept/Oct, and some serious PS4 bundles between Destiny 2, Battlefront 2 and RDR2... Plus huge BF sales at $199.
Switch will also divert some of the attention for familly based purchases after a timely price drop ($249).
Software overall all year will imo be a big driver for PS4 sales, being able to stabilize overall sales while including the Pro.
 
L

LordofPwn

Member
[XB1] 4500K
[PS4] 5000K
[NSW] 3200K

If Scorpio ends up being a new gen will those units be included into XB1 totals? And I'm wondering if by adding NSW into the mix if that means this year will be way better for hardware sales or if it takes away from XB1/PS4 sales.

I can see this being a great year for all 3 if everyone plays their cards right. If Scorpio is a new start for Microsoft I think this helps them quite a bit, but at the same time if it's basically an Xbox Pro and the 1s doesn't get a price drop I could see them having a bad year.

For PlayStation they've got some exclusives finally coming out throughout the year that could really boost sales and if the Pro drops in price I could see them trying to push it during the holidays. I don't see how they could have a bad year because PS4 continues to be a beast but it's also Sony so if anyone could screw it up, it's them.

Nintendo is basically the Wild Card. I can see the Switch doing very well overseas. But here in NA it could be a toss-up. Mario during the holidays will certainly help though. Is 5000K their worldwide goal for this year?

I'll hopefully do some research before the 3rd and update numbers if need be otherwise the ones I have should suffice.
 
M

Mr Swine

Banned
[XB1] 5245k
[NSW] 4750k
[PS4] 7185k

I think the Switch will sell good but less than Xbone and PS4 will have its best year ever and outsell both by a large margin
 
T

Tratorn

Member
[XB1] 5050505
[PS4] 4789098
[NSW] 3987654

First guess, will probably edit later.
XB1 is hard to predict even though it's its 4th year. I expect Scorpio to be 399$ and to have more focus than the Pro on Sony's side, so it'll do better relately to the XB1 S. But if they don't go for 399$, it'll hurt the potential of course.
 
Duxxy3

Duxxy3

Member
[PS4] 5190K
[XB1] 5730K
[NSW] 3155K

Expecting big Scorpio sales. Steady PS4 sales. Decent Switch sales. I think Nintendo is going to send a larger portion to North America, hence the stronger sales here.
 
Nameless

Nameless

Member
Don't have a prediction but if we see Destiny 2 and/or Red Dead 2 bundles for PS4 this year I don't think it will be nearly as close as some predictions so far are assuming.
 
S

Shizza

Member
[PS4] 4600k
[XB1] 4400k
[NSW] 4500k

I think it's going to be really close for all 3.

For the Switch, even though it's combining handheld and console output, I think that due to it's relative upgrade over the the WIU vs the 3DS, that the numbers will be closer to the 3DS's first 10-month sales, rather than the sum of WIU's and 3DS's first 10-months. Additionally, I don't see the platform setting the world on fire like the WII did, but I think it will certainly generate a lot more interest than the WIU.

I think the PS4 yearly sales peaked in 2014, and that 2017 will be down again YoY.

The XB1 is a bit of a wildcard for me, as the PS4 has been out-performing it pretty consistently (on a yearly basis), but the Scorpio could change that. The PS4 Pro certainly gave the PS4 totals a bump, but I think the Scorpio's effect has the chance to be more dramatic given that it's going to leapfrog its competitor. The question though is price-point, and I think Microsoft is going to miss the mark there, given the rumored specs.
 
N

noshten

Member
ForsakenLotus said:
That's a bold prediction for the Switch. Are you worried about supply constraints?
Click to expand...

I more worried about manufacturing constraints. In terms of supply 3DS launch cleared 4 million and to me Switch is more attractive as a Nintendo device than either 3DS or Wii U. Zelda as a launch title, followed by MK8 Deluxe is a good western centric approach. There is certainly going to be a cross over from enthusiasts and parents buying a Nintendo Tablet during the first 3 months of the Switch. I don't see why it would not have very good March and April based on those two titles. Summer will slow down and Arms despite the positive reception is still an unknown quality while Splatoon/Minecraft might be the major games for the summer vacation months. Splatoon is huge in Japan but it's still not hit it big time in the US. So there is still questions about the potential but surely its a title that was undersold by the size of the Wii U community outside of Japan.
Than it's all about winter and I personally expect the Switch to be either cheaper or have a good bundle for Nov/Dec.
Supply won't be a problem if Switch has a good opening and retailers stock up - if the launch is subdued than my prediction is definetly not going to come to fruition. Personally I feel good about the launch despite the negativity - I think people tend to get too hang up on whether its a console or a handheld. It's a Nintendo Tablet you plug into your TV, a lot easier to market than 3D which when 3DS was releasing was still questionable for smaller kids or GamePad which obviously wasn't fully designed with kids in mind. Joycons provide a good way for kids to share their handheld gaming experiences. Portability is a major advantage compared to a console. There is also evergreen vibe coming from a launch of Zelda and Mario Kart 8.
This is going to be an interesting proposition to people who had a Wii or DS but never bought 3DS or Wii U.

Don't read too much into my opinion thought I don't have much of a great history in terms of predictions in NPD threads
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
[PS4] 5280K
[XB1] 5030K
[NSW] 4190K

Going forward this year I expect Pro sales to continue to help prop up PS4 sales to such a degree that it enjoys YoY growth for the majority of the months this calendar year. I also think the XB1 will be up YoY for at least the first 6 months of the year as well. The only way i could see either platform being down YoY for the first 6 months this year is if the Switch ends up being some sort of cultural phenomenon that steals any and all mainstream appeal away from these platforms. While I think the Switch will be a relative success for Nintendo and perform roughly in line with the Gamecube in NA I don't see it being a runaway hit like the Wii due to it offering something most people enjoy already with a multitude of other gadgets and devices at their disposal (Tablets, Smartphones, 3DS) that also offer a variety of other functions and perks that the Switch simply does not and will not have.

The Scorpio is the biggest wild card to me as I think its reception will hinge a lot around its price point and the way in which it is advertised to the public. Both of those are things we don't have a lot of info on at the moment and are thus difficult to predict. So, my thought is that the best way to estimate the impact such a launch will have is to think of it in relation to its nearest competitor (PS4 Pro) and decide how you think it is likely to stack up against it. I see the Scorpio comparing very favorably to the PS4 Pro in its first few months and likely outselling it provided it is priced appropriately. I think that sort of performance is almost ensured based solely off of the anticipation and enthusiasm the platform garners from MS' most avid fanbase. The post launch sales will hinge more on their ability to market the platform successfully such that it can appeal to a broader audience. Much of that advertising will need to hinge on compelling SW to sell the advantages of the platform and that's just not something I'm confident in MS having at the moment. That said I do expect strong performance from XB1s and the launch of Scorpio to lead to 2017 being XB1's peak.

In contrast i see the PS4 having a fantastic year off the back of Pro ensuring a YOY increase in slower months and some very very successful third party marketing partnerships (Destiny 2, RDR2, Battlefront 2). When offered in mass appeal bundles during the more competitive months of the year (perhaps even during the launch months of MS' Scorpio) with the addition of an expected $50 or more price drop for both Slim and Pro this holiday season I see them having an incredibly strong holiday season this year but despite being substantially up YoY I expect it to not quite be strong enough to be their peak.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Duxxy3 said:
PS4 - 5190K
XB1 - 5730K
NSW - 3155K

Expecting big Scorpio sales. Steady PS4 sales. Decent Switch sales. I think Nintendo is going to send a larger portion to North America, hence the stronger sales here.
Click to expand...

Use the correct format, if you want your entry counted.
 
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