This thread is for predictions of U.S. Hardware sales as reported by NPD (or estimations thereof where no public data is available) for the entire 2017 year (January-December 2017).
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the upcoming year.
What do I win?: Bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it.
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Friday, February 3rd. (This gives it some separation from the monthly thread.) Format use is absolutely required.
Do not use decimal points or "m"/"million" in your predictions. If you predict over 1 million for a system, you can use 1000K or more to get to your prediction. Be careful to use the appropriate number of place values so you don't over or understate your predictions by a factor of 10. People who have such outliers will be disqualified.
Format to use for predictions:
[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]
Good
[XB1] 4500K
[XB1] 4500000
[XB1] 4,500,000
Bad
[XB1] 4.500.000
[XB1] 4.5 million
[XB1] 4.5m
[XB1] - 4.5 m
XB1 - 4 million
2016 Results
* Not all numbers were publicly available throughout the year, so using #1 predictor for missing month to fill in gaps.
2015 Results
2014 Results*
* Not all numbers were publicly available throughout the year, so using #1 predictor for missing month to fill in gaps.
Potentially significant sales-related events for 2017
(No guarantee these'll all happen in 2017. Also, this list is not meant to be comprehensive.)
NSW - Launch March 3rd; Zelda: Breath of the Wild; Splatoon 2; Mario Odyssey
XB1 - Scorpio launching in Fall; Price drop on regular and XB1s models
PS4 - Price drop on regular and PS4Pro models; FFVIIR
2016 NPD Prediction Thread
2015 NPD Prediction Thread
NPD Prediction Thread Archive
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the upcoming year.
What do I win?: Bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it.
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Friday, February 3rd. (This gives it some separation from the monthly thread.) Format use is absolutely required.
Do not use decimal points or "m"/"million" in your predictions. If you predict over 1 million for a system, you can use 1000K or more to get to your prediction. Be careful to use the appropriate number of place values so you don't over or understate your predictions by a factor of 10. People who have such outliers will be disqualified.
Format to use for predictions:
[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]
Good
[XB1] 4500K
[XB1] 4500000
[XB1] 4,500,000
Bad
[XB1] 4.500.000
[XB1] 4.5 million
[XB1] 4.5m
[XB1] - 4.5 m
XB1 - 4 million
2016 Results
WIU - 665K*Rounding to the nearest 10k
PS4 - 5090K
XB1 - 4730K
3DS - 2470K
* Not all numbers were publicly available throughout the year, so using #1 predictor for missing month to fill in gaps.
2015 Results
Rounding to the nearest 10k
PS4 - 5740K
XB1 - 4940K
3DS - 2420K
WIU - 1340K
2014 Results*
[PS4] 4680K
[XB1] 4360K
[3DS] 2580K
[WIU] 1570K
[360] 1320K
[PS3] 740K
* Not all numbers were publicly available throughout the year, so using #1 predictor for missing month to fill in gaps.
Potentially significant sales-related events for 2017
(No guarantee these'll all happen in 2017. Also, this list is not meant to be comprehensive.)
NSW - Launch March 3rd; Zelda: Breath of the Wild; Splatoon 2; Mario Odyssey
XB1 - Scorpio launching in Fall; Price drop on regular and XB1s models
PS4 - Price drop on regular and PS4Pro models; FFVIIR
2016 NPD Prediction Thread
2015 NPD Prediction Thread
NPD Prediction Thread Archive