mejin
Member
For Sony the worldwide sales are strong even if selling less this year on US. But MS don't have the world and this is really bad.
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For Sony the worldwide sales are strong even if selling less this year on US. But MS don't have the world and this is really bad.
MatPiscatella
Member
ethomaz
Banned
I don't think just because they are selling well WW that they will forget about US.
Sony like others company has a big team in US just to look to US sales and they need to get the results.
I worked in company like Sony and while WW it break records... in Brasil the situation was meh and we needed to change that scenario in a near-term plan... thanks we reach the target pretty well.
That is the same here the US team are saying the bad sales and that is even worst because they see outside are having good sales... they can't stay behind the rest of the world.
It is bad for both and even worst for Sony that had a new SKU launch.
hanspampel
Banned
okay thanks. so probably just some guesses that were thrown around
Frankfurter
Member
Surprised to see that both PS4 and One are down for this year in the US. Is this a new trend (maybe Nov being down a lot)?
RichiRamjag
Member
Well said. I haven't been buying anything full price because of this reason. It takes a game to be half off for me to even consider putting my usual stuff aside.
chromatic9
Member
Thought it was someones guesstimation. I'd be going along with that 200-300k as well. Perhaps be on the ~300k for the year and ~150k per month. People on here had some crazy thoughts of up to 2 million pros sold in the US this year.
Anyway, in the context of past years it seems like okay numbers, just not as good as last year but the ebb and flow seems inline. We've had a lot of clearance in the late summer-October time, not sure how previous slim edition years tally up
The software is worrying as there's more consoles sold than last gen but each game has a story. I'm sorry for folks who think Gears 4 was going to outsell Halo. Said before release this ip is past its golden run, its the third dev team and people have moved on. Not that it can't come back around one day. I predicted around Judgement numbers at launch. We need a new ip to break ground just like Gears did. After Halo 4 I thought the 343 follow up would be much lower and it was.
Titanfall had some incredible hype built up in 2013 at various events by gamers and press alike. TF and Destiny were being touted as the next things and the whole excitement of a new gen then add Microsoft's marketing, its was a tidal wave. TF2 was not only a stealth release it went up against two big shooters and BF took a while to establish itself. March-May is a safe window for a title like this. Watch Dogs 2 has a similar story and huge let down hanging over it but I think it will have decent legs with lower prices.
Fair enough, but do you see any room for concern at all? Do you think any degree of concern is unwarranted? Pure hyperbolic doomspeak?
Consoles peaking their 3rd holidays isn't unusual in itself (although most peak 4th), but combined with new remodels? Maybe this wasn't so surprising given the software lineup this year and how frontloaded this generation is proving to be in general, but the same time is this really business at usual? Or is this just the new marketplace?
Its possible, but its also possible that this is an outlier in one territory.
But it generally means more for MS since its sales are so tied to America, they have to make sure that this is an outlier in whatever way they can.
Sony have little to fear as their global sales have been their main driver of growth
C'mon, they did the same 50$ deals last year on December.
Norse
Member
You people seem to forget that both xbone and ps4 are ahead of last gen sales. Maybe people upgraded sooner this time?
As far as software, digital purchases taking larger chunk from retail? I only do digital and I think gamers with their own credit may be doing the same.
I take the lack of comments on the 67k psvr sales as another sign that vr interest isn't there yet.
Last thing about ps4/pro split....we don't really know how many pros were in the wild so it is possible Sony hasn't shipped enough and people are left waiting for stock. /Shrug
As far as software, digital purchases taking larger chunk from retail? I only do digital and I think gamers with their own credit may be doing the same.
I take the lack of comments on the 67k psvr sales as another sign that vr interest isn't there yet.
Last thing about ps4/pro split....we don't really know how many pros were in the wild so it is possible Sony hasn't shipped enough and people are left waiting for stock. /Shrug
MatPiscatella
Member
I can't say anything before Thursday's media release. But that release will address some of these questions, and what isn't addressed we can discuss in the NPD results thread.
I'll just say that there are easily identifiable drivers of this month's sales in the data. When this happens, I'm generally not concerned (and neither would most quants I believe).
It's only when drivers of results aren't identifiable or explainable (for good or for bad) that I become concerned.
As for the "new marketplace" idea... well I think you could say that just about every year in the video game market. I believe it is the most surprising and unpredictable retail category. That's what makes it so fun.
The Abominable Snowman
Member
How many sold in October and how many did Sony ship? Seems to be doing well enough if it's sold out.
NA is still the largest dedicated hardware market overall, and US is by a wide margin the largest national market. A decline here would definitely be a much more pressing concern for MS, but it'd still be a concern for Sony.
Versus previous gens I'd argue the real thing to fear here though isn't the insular console war, it's more consoles versus everything else. A shrinking overall US market is bad for everyone, although it's definitely easier for Sony to weather.
True, last year we also had $50 off deals following recent price drops. These deals were probably planned in advance and not a response to YOY decline, I doubt either MS or Sony are panicking over the November results.
hanspampel
Banned
ps4 is down 8% yoy jan - oct and 28% in november
xb1 is down 2% yoy jan - oct and 23% in november
ethomaz
Banned
Were both consoles $249 last year???
Mister Megative
Banned
Sorry, but I'm going to share private conversations with you.
And yeah. I will be here, and it's going to be fun.
hanspampel
Banned
Why do you think they released slim models that are cheaper to make? smh
Obliterator
Member
People need to remember a lot of upgrading to this generation happened last Holiday due to that software lineup.
You had Fallout 4, Black Ops 3, and Star Wars Battlefront. Those were major HUGE releases, and that moved a shit ton of consoles.
This November really didn't have anything software related to drive adoption like that. Also its the 4th Holiday, which is entirely normal to be down.
You had Fallout 4, Black Ops 3, and Star Wars Battlefront. Those were major HUGE releases, and that moved a shit ton of consoles.
This November really didn't have anything software related to drive adoption like that. Also its the 4th Holiday, which is entirely normal to be down.
Mister Megative
Banned
You're wasting your breath. This thread is an impenetrable echo chamber in which everyone disregards things like trends and logic, instead just screaming at the sky about a false narrative in which consoles are sinking. I'm out.
pixelation
Member
*Marks Thursday on calendar*
gundamkyoukai
Member
New models are normally cheaper .
The is the first time something like Pro has come out .
People should also remember that Pro cost $150 more and is not bundle .
Then there is software to keep in mind and bundles the systems had .
Harmondale
Member
Do we really have more "high quality software" available now compared to gen 7? (as an argument while individual software sales are down). Never seen statistics of the amount of released AAA games / year would be interesting. But yeah, Prices dropping with 50% after a month for all of those oct/nov releases...the average consuner Will become more and more aware of this and Will just wait. Day 1 sales should decrease and decrease
I can see this being a reason. I bought a lot of games on BF that I wanted simply because they were cheap.
I really want WD2, but that was like full price at the time. I know Ubi games drop by like 20-30 bucks after 2 months. SO I'm just waiting to pick that up.
Welfare
Member
Context people, context.
This November SUCKED. Simple as that. Delays out of this holiday with nothing to back it up except new hardware. It was pure optimism to assume consoles would be up YoY.
Code:
2015
Xbox One October: 303,500 / 4 = 75,875
Xbox One November: 1.296M / 4 = 324,000
Weekly average up 327%
PS4 October: 274,700 / 4 = 68,675
PS4 November: 1.539M / 4 = 384,750
Weekly average up 460%
Code:
Notable Events in November
[u]Xbox One[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals
Gears of War UE 500GB White bundle $349 [Walmart] [4 weeks]
Fallout 4 1TB Bundle $399 [3 weeks] [158k]
Tomb Raider 1TB Bundle $399 [Best Buy + MS Store] [4 weeks]
Xbox One Elite Bundle $499 [Gamestop + MS Store] [4 weeks]
Black Ops 3 [4 weeks] [1948k]
Fallout 4 [3 weeks] [<1116k]
Battlefront [2 weeks] [843k]
Need for Speed [4 weeks] [138k]
Tomb Raider [3 weeks] [176k]
[u]PS4[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals
Battlefront 500GB Bundle $349/Battlefront "Vader" console 500GB Bundle $399 [2 weeks] [375k]
Black Ops 3 1TB Bundle $429 [4 weeks] [251k]
Disney Infinity 3.0 "Vader" Console 500GB Bundle $399 [2 weeks]
Black Ops 3 [4 weeks] [1902k]
Fallout 4 [3 weeks] [<1264k]
Battlefront [2 weeks] [883k]
Need for Speed [4 weeks] [<252k]
Code:
2016 November Results (Windows Central)
Xbox One: 329,000 / 4 = 82,250
Xbox One: 1M / 4 = 250,000
Weekly average up 204%
PS4: 235,100 / 4 = 58,775
PS4: 1.1M / 4 = 275,000
Weekly average up 368%
Code:
Notable Events in November
[u]Xbox One[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals
Free game with any Xbox One purchased [9 days: November 4 - November 12]
Xbox One S Battlefield 1 500GB Stormy Grey Limited bundle $299 [Wal-Mart/MS Store] [4 weeks]
Xbox One S Gears of War 4 500GB Deep Blue Limited bundle $299 [Gamestop/MS Store] [4 weeks]
Call of Duty Infinite Warfare [4 weeks]
Watch Dogs 2 [2 weeks]
[u]PS4[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals
Call of Duty Infinite Warfare free with every PS4 [2 days: November 4 - November 5]
PS4 Pro 1TB $399 [3 weeks]
Call of Duty Infinite Warfare [4 weeks]
Watch Dogs 2 [2 weeks]This November SUCKED. Simple as that. Delays out of this holiday with nothing to back it up except new hardware. It was pure optimism to assume consoles would be up YoY.
retail software was up 31% for consoles and 172% for pc, revenue wise in October 2016. Console retail sales were bigger than box office for the month...
So actually yes, sales are overall up by a big margin and despite digital sales popularity, that they dont track.
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
Yeah the Pro is a premium model and you have to factor in profit when talking about it's performance, not just sales. As you observed, retailers aren't stuffed with units. And this is another factor people have been ignoring - could it be that manufacturing has seen low yields of the overclocked APU inside the Pro? Overclocking that hard is going to result in a lot more chips not making it past testing surely.
MatPiscatella
Member
On the physical ("AAA") side, absolutely not. There are far, far fewer games coming out now physically than ever before.
Between 2009-2015, we lost more than half of all publishers making physical games.
Over that time, release count plummeted. There were 800 titles released physically in 2009. About 200 came out at retail last year.
Some of that gap is being made up by digital releases, sure. And a lot of those 800+ titles in 2009 were not great, or "AAA" granted.
In any case, if you want to predict physical game sales as a market, look at release count.
Between 2009-2013, the change in physical software sales almost perfectly correlated to release count reduction. In 2013, we basically hit a floor at around that 200 level, as did physical software sales.
The problem when a market is so reliant on 200 titles driving the business, the chances for unexpected titles to break through lessens. As such, the market is much more reliant on those huge games that come out every year to continue to perform to drive software sales as well as hardware sales.
If you get a year like 2015, where Black Ops III, Fallout 4 and Star Wars: Battlefront all sell incredibly well, this will be reflected in both software and hardware sales.
The big COD decline sure does not help as well.
Jawbreaker
Member
Don't worry, Nintendo will be OK.
KawabataSan
Member
xb1 sales are a bit better than ps4's relatively speaking - they're both down, but microsoft released a new slim version and had a pretty big software release in gears 4. i think they were able to offset the decline better.
ps4 though - a slim version, a pro version, and ps vr... all resulting in an even bigger drop in ytd sales. i think part of sony's problem was strategy. they had those three things all hit at the same time when they should have focused on one or two at a time (slim + vr, slim + pro, pro + vr), and announced the other later. their messaging wasn't incoherent, but it was pretty messy and i'm not sure what they wanted consumers to focus on this holiday season.
and this is with the price drop to the mass-market $299.99 price point, with a mature library. these things should both be taking off like crazy. they would a generation ago. instead, it's been a year of decline in a generation of decline. 2017 has the ability to halt or reverse the trend, perhaps, but i think a decade of this self-destructive behavior in chasing high-end specs, combined with changing consumer habits that aren't addressed by some first-parties, is resulting in what we saw this year.
i think there is a strong chance the scorpio does not carry the xb1 name and microsoft instead tries again. and to that end, i think there is a strong chance sony will give it another go in 2018 with the ps5, especially if q1 cy2017 isn't an improvement yoy, and keep the ps4 around as a legacy platform for several more years and drop it in price through 2021 or so.
vr has also run its initial course i feel. the next step is to go beyond the current status as luxury peripheral and small developers pioneering software. maybe making vr the focus of a ps5 is what could really bring people back to traditional hardware like we saw in the 6th and 7th generations.
ps4 though - a slim version, a pro version, and ps vr... all resulting in an even bigger drop in ytd sales. i think part of sony's problem was strategy. they had those three things all hit at the same time when they should have focused on one or two at a time (slim + vr, slim + pro, pro + vr), and announced the other later. their messaging wasn't incoherent, but it was pretty messy and i'm not sure what they wanted consumers to focus on this holiday season.
and this is with the price drop to the mass-market $299.99 price point, with a mature library. these things should both be taking off like crazy. they would a generation ago. instead, it's been a year of decline in a generation of decline. 2017 has the ability to halt or reverse the trend, perhaps, but i think a decade of this self-destructive behavior in chasing high-end specs, combined with changing consumer habits that aren't addressed by some first-parties, is resulting in what we saw this year.
i think there is a strong chance the scorpio does not carry the xb1 name and microsoft instead tries again. and to that end, i think there is a strong chance sony will give it another go in 2018 with the ps5, especially if q1 cy2017 isn't an improvement yoy, and keep the ps4 around as a legacy platform for several more years and drop it in price through 2021 or so.
vr has also run its initial course i feel. the next step is to go beyond the current status as luxury peripheral and small developers pioneering software. maybe making vr the focus of a ps5 is what could really bring people back to traditional hardware like we saw in the 6th and 7th generations.
If they're down YOY I wonder how much that has to do with the games that were bundled.
Last year there were PS4 bundles with Star Wars and COD. No way Uncharted would touch those from a casual mass market view.
Not completely sure what Xbox bundled with last year (I think it was Gears/Ori/something else?) but consider how many people probably already own Minecraft.
The pack in games this year I think just weren't as compelling as last year's. Combine that with sale prices being basically the same as last year.
Last year there were PS4 bundles with Star Wars and COD. No way Uncharted would touch those from a casual mass market view.
Not completely sure what Xbox bundled with last year (I think it was Gears/Ori/something else?) but consider how many people probably already own Minecraft.
The pack in games this year I think just weren't as compelling as last year's. Combine that with sale prices being basically the same as last year.
Haha,
I know we talked about this before, but I'm going to try again:
It may be presented that way, but are people going to perceive it that way? It looks like a portable device and its portability will be part of the marketing, therefore people will classify it as a portable because, functionally, that is what it is.
In 2016, people classify computing devices as portable/not-portable, laptop/desktop, home console/handheld; there is no third category yet. When that changes, it won't be on the back of a single company's product and a couple of months of marketing.
The only way to get people to think of it as a home console is to hide its looks and not show people playing it away from home in the marketing, and that won't happen.
SneakersSO
Member
You think Sony is gonna launch a PS5 in 2018? And you think Scorpio is a new gen? Not a chance, for either of these. The market is looking for software to purchase, software that will help drive console adoption as well. This Holiday season has been relatively poor for that. The market is just not ready to throw down a lot on hardware right now, especially not for new generations. And if you think diminishing returns on fidelity was bad this generation, wait until the next gen rolls around.
Both 1st party groups are in active development on software that won't be launching on the current hardware platforms until 2018 at the very least. This year was an off year for a lot of major players in terms of 3rd party. Cod was a wash. BF1 did really well, but that is a PC focused title. There wasn't an Assassin's Creed, and most sequels that have released, like Dishonored 2 & Watch_Dogs 2, are way down compared to their predecessors. Its not like we had a lot of great hits this summer either - several of this year's biggest games launched in the first half of the year; Overwatch, Doom, UC4.
I think you're over-estimating the $299.99 pricepoint. Truth is, MS has been hitting well under that price point for several months in the US & UK. Compared to last year, I don't think the bundles & prices have been as competitive as they were last year. If we're here 12 months from now with a PS4 RDR2 bundle on shelves and its still not up YoY, then I think we can start being concerned. But these results tell me that this has been more a result of the reality the market this holiday season. If consoles are in as much trouble as you think, then new console generations aren't going to save them. Core users will come & pick them up, but it'll be an ever shrinking market. Heck, treating Scorpio as a standalone generation would lead to a huge disaster.
gundamkyoukai
Member
$299 is not mass market price .
We will see mass market price next year when these system hit $199.
Also Sony is not going to bring out another system in 2 years when PS4 is selling so good.
Along with having another system that they are getting higher revenue and maybe profit from .
Sony focus was the slim this year but unlike last year and other parts of the world there bundles were lacking .
The Pro was always there hardcore system that is not even bundle with a game .
And it's to early to tell if the Pro is doing good or not .
EDIT i should also note that the next die shrink is going one of the major aspect of when we get next gen.
#notallanalysts
Well that remains to be seen, but you are being close-minded. The portable aspect of the system is going to be presented as the alt configuration, while being in the dock will be the primary. Just showing that once first in marketing does a lot to cement the idea in people's minds.Haha,
I know we talked about this before, but I'm going to try again:
It may be presented that way, but are people going to perceive it that way? It looks like a portable device and its portability will be part of the marketing, therefore people will classify it as a portable because, functionally, that is what it is.
In 2016, people classify computing devices as portable/not-portable, laptop/desktop, home console/handheld; there is no third category yet. When that changes, it won't be on the back of a single company's product and a couple of months of marketing.
The only way to get people to think of it as a home console is to hide its looks and not show people playing it away from home in the marketing, and that won't happen.
This is one of those situations where we as enthusiasts think about something so much that it defines our basic thought processes. Most people aren't going to consider the issue of home console vs. portable like we do. The fact that they see it in the dock, and THEN see it portable is enough for them to think about it in that way.
Dash_Riprock
Member
Why does it feel at times that people WANT gaming to be in decline?
Validation?
Validation?
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
RE: AniHawk's post
There's no feasible 'next gen' in 2018.
Next-gen's roadmap at this point is vague, but it will come when there are certain milestones met for improvements (GPU, CPU, Memory), and we're not close to the next milestone for these areas.
Hence the Pro and Scorpio, which aren't meant as a new platform, but simply an extension of this one.
Pro's importance (and Scorpio for that matter), won't be seen at launch. It will be seen as 4K TVs become more widely adopted, which they will. This year alone we have seen that 4K TVs started to really become a widespread thing.
Sony also has an advantage to make the Pro a reasonable price as 4K begins to gain momentum.
There's no feasible 'next gen' in 2018.
Next-gen's roadmap at this point is vague, but it will come when there are certain milestones met for improvements (GPU, CPU, Memory), and we're not close to the next milestone for these areas.
Hence the Pro and Scorpio, which aren't meant as a new platform, but simply an extension of this one.
Pro's importance (and Scorpio for that matter), won't be seen at launch. It will be seen as 4K TVs become more widely adopted, which they will. This year alone we have seen that 4K TVs started to really become a widespread thing.
Sony also has an advantage to make the Pro a reasonable price as 4K begins to gain momentum.
Humdinger
Member
Wow, that's a huge drop off. I did not realize that. That's a little disturbing.
Care to comment on the factors that contributed to that decline? Is it just the increasing cost of game development, or is it something else?
a next gen in 2018 would be more like what the ps4 pro is. the point behind it would be to try and establish new standards. for sony, it could be vr if they actually believe in it strongly. microsoft could really use the opportunity to make the idea of xbox as a platform beyond hardware work better. they seemed to make a change hard in the last two years to provide xbox to pc, but i think it would work better if it was part of the vision for the platform from the start rather than something shoehorned into the xb1 a year or two in.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
More like all the time. Any time there is a drop you these concerns overflowing. Doesn't matter that the PS4 is headed toward a PS1 type performance or better. Also has to do with over-inflated importance placed on the US market at least when it comes to PlayStation.
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
Why establish new standards when there's not a generational leap?
You're not going to see a new leap before 2020, I'd imagine, based upon the tech roadmap we have now and anticipated process shrinks.
Obliterator
Member
The good news is we've stabilized over the last 2 years so it looks like rock bottom has been hit.
The decline came by and large due to the enormous rising costs of game development. There's only a few houses left in town that can afford to create the massive titles that gamers want.
I also agree with QaaQer.
Most times when something has a dock, when its undocked is usually seen as the primary function.
All it can take is someone's dock breaking. They can still use the device.
Nintendo is gonna have to market the hell out of it as a home console for folks to not see it as a handheld first.
There was a promo for the Motorola Atrix that showed it docked first. Its a phone, it was marketed as the worlds most powerful smartphone so thats a lil different there.
But showing it with the dock first didnt help the laptop dock fly off the shelves. Dont know if price was a factor
I do agree that marketing will help, but its also all about how ppl actually perceive it once they get it.