because i think that by 2018, it won't really matter what dedicated hardware has in terms of power. it'll matter more in what they have in regards to features, and how integrated the platforms are with mobile/pc/televisions, etc.
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because i think that by 2018, it won't really matter what dedicated hardware has in terms of power. it'll matter more in what they have in regards to features, and how integrated the platforms are with mobile/pc/televisions, etc.
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
This doesn't make much sense to me. What does releasing new hardware in 2018 serve, then? The current systems can do everything you're already talking about.
At least for the Playstation/Xbox ecosystem, what drives new hardware will be power. I don't see that changing.
new hardware would allow for sony and microsoft to rebrand and refocus their platforms in a more modern setting. even if the platforms weren't huge leaps like the ps3 over the ps2, it gives them the option to make 4k tv the focus, or vr the focus, or a shared ecosystem among digital and dedicated hardware platforms the focus. it's a much better option than letting things languish as the world changes around them. if 2017 is down year over year or even steady, i think that waiting for 2020 is suicide.
Yeah, next-gen (PS5) will start in 2019 or 2020 imho.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Both VR and 4k going to need power and 2018 will be to early for that .
Also neither Sony or MS going to focus a system on VR anytime soon .
Plus you are only looking at this from a NPD aspect .
There nothing new in the world right now that current consoles can't do or lagging behind .
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
Sony didn't wait until 2020. They released the PS4 Pro which does allow for gamers to take advantage of 4K TVs, and extends the PS4 lifecycle for another few years.
That's what I'm getting at. What's the point of rebranding? Sony has a pretty huge list of titles for the next three years that are in the pipeline. That gets us to 2019.
I don't see what's going to change around them in the next few years that they need to be aware of that they're not already doing.
focus, not power, is the main handicap of vr right now. if we get to 2018 and sony can make the vr the main gimmick of their platform, putting their main talent to deliver new experiences beyond these smaller, pioneering efforts, i think it would have a much better chance at gaining mainstream appeal.
i think that the ps4 pro might wind up being a mistake in that sense. it really felt like a messy stopgap when saving something like it for a little later might have been the wiser choice. beyond that, i don't think having titles scheduled for a platform means anything. games get moved to future platforms all the time. hell, the last guardian and final fantasy versus xiii just came out a week apart.
gundamkyoukai
Member
The main handicap for VR right now is power and price .
2 years in not enough time to bring console type VR down to mass market price .
In next two years cell phone VR will also be getting better so they have to be ahead.
If anything cell phones will make VR main stream and people that want a better \different version will use PC\consoles.
Also just looking at current VR headset sales show VR still has a while to go .
Norse
Member
Software sales might be lower due to the same old games coming out every yr. I'm tired of get cod 15, bf12, halo or gears whatever. How bout we get something new with new stories and characters. And something the Joe avg gamer can play. Quit making games geared towards the professional gamer wannabees. In a hockey game, I shouldn't need more than face buttons and the 2 sticks to play it either. Same with the other sports.
Due to the above, I've gone towards Indy titles a lot more these days. Firewatch is damn good.
Due to the above, I've gone towards Indy titles a lot more these days. Firewatch is damn good.
A bit late to the party, but I just wanted to throw my two cents in.
I'm of the opinion that both Scorpio and Pro will eventually get games that are not playable with the original model. This will happen when their respective successors are launched.
See, my thinking: we are entering the age of rolling generations. In the future there will always to overlapping generations that share a library.
But, when PS5 (or whatever it's called) is launched, there will be a generational break. From there on, all games are playable with Pro and PS5. PS5 will also be fully compatible with all PS4 games, but PS4 will not be able to run games designed for Pro/PS5 generation.
This will have several advantages.
First, there will not be a start of the generation drought. There's already a huge library to play with, and more are released all the time. Consumers are happy.
Second, publishers will not need to worry about the small install base, because there will be an existing base of tens of millions already. Publishers are happy.
Third, platform holders raise exit barriers: when you are already invested in the ecosystem, you are more likely to purchase your next console from the same family. Sony is happy.
This way we could be getting new generations every three years, but the actual break would only take place every six years. (Unless you are one of those weirdos who always need to upgrade to the newest model. o/ )
If I were working for SIE, this would be my plan. I don't know about Microsoft, though. With Scorpio being a bigger technical leap than that between PS4 and Pro, they might cut XBONE earlier, so they'll be in a limbo of not-quite-big-enough install base to make this model viable.
I'm of the opinion that both Scorpio and Pro will eventually get games that are not playable with the original model. This will happen when their respective successors are launched.
See, my thinking: we are entering the age of rolling generations. In the future there will always to overlapping generations that share a library.
But, when PS5 (or whatever it's called) is launched, there will be a generational break. From there on, all games are playable with Pro and PS5. PS5 will also be fully compatible with all PS4 games, but PS4 will not be able to run games designed for Pro/PS5 generation.
This will have several advantages.
First, there will not be a start of the generation drought. There's already a huge library to play with, and more are released all the time. Consumers are happy.
Second, publishers will not need to worry about the small install base, because there will be an existing base of tens of millions already. Publishers are happy.
Third, platform holders raise exit barriers: when you are already invested in the ecosystem, you are more likely to purchase your next console from the same family. Sony is happy.
This way we could be getting new generations every three years, but the actual break would only take place every six years. (Unless you are one of those weirdos who always need to upgrade to the newest model. o/ )
If I were working for SIE, this would be my plan. I don't know about Microsoft, though. With Scorpio being a bigger technical leap than that between PS4 and Pro, they might cut XBONE earlier, so they'll be in a limbo of not-quite-big-enough install base to make this model viable.
Harmondale
Member
Yeah we all saw how went it well for Xbox when it was branded TV TV TV TV features.
I don't get why are some people assuming big mistakes in ps4 branding because it was down YoY in November in the US. This is a NPD thread, right, but those decisions are made taking into account the world.
PS4 sold 17.4M consoles in 2015, sitting at 35,9million in January 3, 2016.
They just announced that they are over 50 million sell through with December still ahead, so if they get to January 2017 with over 53,3 million, they'll be up YoY worldwide, in the 4th holyday that everybody is now saying that they should be down.
And that's a reachable number, or they will fall very short of it. So I think everything is working as intended.
PS4 sold 17.4M consoles in 2015, sitting at 35,9million in January 3, 2016.
They just announced that they are over 50 million sell through with December still ahead, so if they get to January 2017 with over 53,3 million, they'll be up YoY worldwide, in the 4th holyday that everybody is now saying that they should be down.
And that's a reachable number, or they will fall very short of it. So I think everything is working as intended.
In the case of the Motorola Atrix Laptop Dock, if I can recall correctly, it was $299 w/out the phone. On contract, one was looking at a $500 price tag. Also, the Motorola Laptop Dock didn't have any computational abilities as well. People was like, I could just go out and buy a netbook for that price.
PlayStation Store: Novembers Top Downloads
http://blog.us.playstation.com/2016/12/12/playstation-store-novembers-top-downloads/
LastMinuteHero
Member
Dumb question but was overwatch on sale?
Yep lowest sales price so far on consoles but I meant to highlight TF2. That was a mistake on my part.
LastMinuteHero
Member
Ah that kinda explains the influx of new players but yeah sad to see tf2 being so low
MatPiscatella
Member
Obliterator nails it...
I'd also add that there were a number of small publishers back in 2009 still trying to exploit the Wii installed base, and when that didn't work they closed up shop or turned to mobile.
In any case, scalable engines that will allow the next gen to arrive without the significant rise in development costs seen in prior generational shifts is critical imo.
Enthusiasts early adopt new Consoles because of Potential. Normal people buy Consoles as a means to play a particular game or set of games they have in mind. The early sales of next gen will be great as the potential of the boxes will likely be amazing. But, big games have to continue being made and published at a rate that attracts the mass market in for long-term health.
Mister Megative
Banned
That's really good for FFXV with only a couple days of tracking. I dunno how much this means, but it's the third-highest selling game of 2016 on Amazon, behind Pokémon Sun/Moon and Uncharted 4, second highest Amazon game in November, and currently jumping back and forth between #2 and #3 for December. Any guesses as to how sales figures are looking/will look?
Harmondale
Member
Happy to see Need for speed made that list, not bad for 1 year old+ racing game (cant Believe that low meta score)
I think they will be over 53.3 million by the start of January, but I'm not sure if they will be up enough YOY to sell over 20 million WW in 2016 at this point.
eerik9000
Member
Sony's 20 million estimate is April 2016 - March 2017, if that's what you mean.
Yeah. You are correct. They have a chance of breaking 20 million sold in this FY probably sometime before March 2017.
It is always doom-and-gloom for the PS4.
With just about every year, every NPD, or every time Xbox releases something whether software or BC or hardware.
It is only in its 3rd year. Why are people talking about sales decline?
Even if it were to decline YoY, it basically is only being beaten by the PS2. No one was this doom-and-gloom when all the other consoles (basically all of them) were in their 2nd, or 3rd year.
PS4 will be fine, it will have legs, and it will sell some more this holidays. There are a lot of households out there who will be buying a system for the first time every year.
With just about every year, every NPD, or every time Xbox releases something whether software or BC or hardware.
It is only in its 3rd year. Why are people talking about sales decline?
Even if it were to decline YoY, it basically is only being beaten by the PS2. No one was this doom-and-gloom when all the other consoles (basically all of them) were in their 2nd, or 3rd year.
PS4 will be fine, it will have legs, and it will sell some more this holidays. There are a lot of households out there who will be buying a system for the first time every year.
Omnistalgic
Member
^If Horizon and Persona 5 have bundles, they'll hit their target!
Both potentially system sellers in different regions IMO...
Both potentially system sellers in different regions IMO...
Disagree. I think you are being very unfair to a lot of SalesGAF folks who put in the time to do a thorough analysis of the numbers. I agree that there are a lot of drive by posts that promote doom and gloom but typically SalesGAF is providing a fair and balanced analysis of the console market at retail.
EventHorizon
Member
That is exactly my thinking. Sony is going for a New Generation-Minor Upgrade with backwards compatibility strategy.
I'll be a bit more speculative and add my thoughts about what I think Microsoft is doing. I think Microsoft is going for two separate product lines. There will be the value Xbox line which is streamlined just to play games. This means a much weaker CPU relative to the GPU power and will be designed to keep the price as low as possible for a console gaming platform. The other line will be an appliance PC that can also play Xbox games natively. This will be capable of running any Windows Universal App from the Windows store. This allows Microsoft to have a closed platform that allows them to get a portion of the profits of every apps installed on the device.
This is the Scorpio line and it's going to be much more expensive, but far more capable, than a traditional console. The Scorpio line will be used to introduce new architecture while the value Xbox line will come behind and offer a more economically gaming focused version of it. Think of Scorpio as a Surface Book but locked down, without a screen, and without the restrictions of a small form factor and battery.
I'm being intentionally speculative here, but it does make sense for Microsoft to do this. The specs of Scorpio are already impressive. It would take little extra work to push it all the way to being a full PC, and it gives Microsoft its own iOS like ecosystem to rake in the bucks like Apple does. Valve was right that Microsoft wants to do this. The funny thing is that if Microsoft pulls this off, they will fulfill the promise of what the Steam Machine was supposed to be. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if Scorpio was originally intended to fight back against the Steam Machine if it ever became successful.
DarkX10 said it himself. He gave it as the reason why they don't include XB1S in their analysis. They only do it if there is a difference he said.
There are a few more games that run better. My point is that there is not going to be some special "architecture" that will make games 60fps on Scorpio or Ps4 pro
Did somebody say they are? What exactly are you accusing me of trying? Somebody said there was some special architecture that made games run faster on this hardware and mentioned scorpio.
XBX - Halo 2 launch. Huge hype machine.
PS360 - Very slow starters leading to long lives after Wii's fade and the Slim versions (and Kinect) came out.
Wii - Whacked out sales those first years, in general, and their 4th holiday was the 3.8m Dec-2009. Wii was actually down YOY in November of that year.
While the company outside of PS2 isn't overly positive, I think being down YOY for 4th November is still fine for PS4/XB1. They're just on a more "regular" sales cycle path than was seen with PS360.
chromatic9
Member
Will be interesting how the Pro picks up in 2017 US. If its around the 20-30% each month it will be around 1 million at the end of the year. I'd expect MS to go a bit harder with Scorpio plus there's more to gain by upgrading from a 720-900p box to at least native 4k for first party exclusives where as PS4 already does 1080p and Pro 1440p-1800 checkerboard isn't that much of a leap. MS could make the year head start irrelevant.
I'm still amazed how they sold 28 million Kinects.
I'm still amazed how they sold 28 million Kinects.
Mister Megative
Banned
Consoles are dead.
Yes, being down 4th year isn't unusual. PS1 was also something of a late bloomer too.
That said none of the 3rd year peakers had remodels launching right before or during their 4th holidays. PS2 got one it's 5th although that also failed to push it up YOY (flat Nov, way down Dec).
I see hyperbole isn't though.
Mister Megative
Banned
Yes, being down 4th year isn't unusual. PS1 was also something of a late bloomer too.
That said none of the 3rd year peakers had remodels launching right before or during their 4th holidays. PS2 got one it's 5th although that also failed to push it up YOY (flat Nov, way down Dec).
I see hyperbole isn't though.
I was kidding.
hanspampel
Banned
regarding being down in the 4th year. this holiday season was the 4th, but just the third full year.
ps4 should be down again significantly in the first half of year 4.
q1cy2015 ps4 sold 962k units (up 4% over 2014)
q2cy2015 ps4 sold 616.5k units (down 7% over 2014)
xbox one sold only 620k in q1 and 486,5k in q2 and has at least a chanche of being up slightly with such low numbers
ps4 should be down again significantly in the first half of year 4.
q1cy2015 ps4 sold 962k units (up 4% over 2014)
q2cy2015 ps4 sold 616.5k units (down 7% over 2014)
xbox one sold only 620k in q1 and 486,5k in q2 and has at least a chanche of being up slightly with such low numbers
exactly. an opportunity to start anew gives them a complete refresh from the xb1 brand and any stigma it carries.
I don't think the pro does anything really until it's price gets dropped by $50-$100. Even if you bundle a game like horizon with it, that doesn't cut it because you can still likely buy a slim with something like uncharted 4 & Horizon and still make out around $350-$360
My question would be is it possible for Sony to drop the price of the PS4 Slim to around 199$/ and balance it with the higher price point of the PS4 Pro from a profit perspective?
Zok310
Banned
2015 YTD (Up toNovember)
PS4 ~4.15m
XB1 ~3.55m
2016 YTD (using the rumored November numbers)
PS4 ~3.52m (-15%)
XB1 ~3.22m (-9%)
This holiday is being pretty bad for both consoles
I think election year in the states is always a year where people just spend less. I could be wrong.
ethomaz
Banned
Never read that. It is hard to find data but I will try.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Because more people will buy it the cheaper it is. The real money comes from software sales and PS Plus.
Norse
Member
Not when you consider some 16m ps4's out there at the moment. Imo it's overpriced. It's a peripheral after all. And I just dont see Joe consumer spending big bucks a gaming peripheral.
Where are we getting that the Pro price is dropping?
Hence the "compared to console" part of my post, and the suggested comparison to other HMDs instead.Norse said:
I think it's well established VR isn't on top of the "Joe consumer" shopping lists, and even if it were, the hw supply to date has been dramatically too low to make much of a difference.