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Official November 2007 NPD Preview Thread

W

WrathOfOtaibah

Banned
Pre-emptive Sony damage control? Nice.

I can tell already that this NPD is going to be fucking awesome. I might have to skip my finals for this.
 
S

Sho_Nuff82

Member
Given the huge library coming in 2008, and the relative weakness of the 360 library, I think PS3 can at least match 360's numbers in the 360's key foothold markets starting around March (when MGS4 is expected), and continuing for the rest of the year. Where PS3 really pulls ahead are in the countries where 360 is a nonfactor.
Click to expand...

That's a rather bold prediction to place on the shoulders of one game.

You heard it here first folks... wait for MGS4, and the PS3 will sell neck and neck with the 360 in NA, UK, and AUS in 2008. And MS will not drop the price.
 
S

sooperkool

Member
Again, it seems that for the PS3 its more of "just wait until..." Although by this time next year, this gen will be half over. PS3 is going to be 3rd in NA and thats just about a done deal, it will be 3rd globally too but not by such a large margin as in NA.
 
M

Mojovonio

Banned
sooperkool said:
Again, it seems that for the PS3 its more of "just wait until..." Although by this time next year, this gen will be half over. PS3 is going to be 3rd in NA and thats just about a done deal, it will be 3rd globally too but not by such a large margin as in NA.
Click to expand...

Wait for God of War 3.
 
C

chespace

It's not actually trolling if you don't admit it
What are the software predictions for Uncharted this Thursday?

Forza Motorsport 2 outsold Uncharted in the UK last week. :p
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
squicken said:
Dude, I've cleard my schedule for Thursday afternoon/evening for Burnout demo and NPD mayhem. Thursday will be like Christmas comes early.
Click to expand...
Gah, I'd almost forgotten to book my schedule at work so no one drops a meeting on me. Time now blocked. And I have to admit, part of the reason I'm hoping for some major surprises is because that heightens the odds of someone suffering a cataclysmic meltdown in the NPD thread. We're talking RSTEIN in the Wolverine OT thread kind of proportions. Call me morbid.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
chespace said:
What are the software predictions for Uncharted this Thursday?

Forza Motorsport 2 outsold Uncharted in the UK last week. :p
Click to expand...
You mean, the 360 outsold Uncharted in the UK last week? I also expect that in the US. :p
 
T

The Innocent X

Banned
chespace said:
What are the software predictions for Uncharted this Thursday?

Forza Motorsport 2 outsold Uncharted in the UK last week. :p
Click to expand...

You know thats because you can get a wireless controller, VP and forza 2 for $70 in the UK right now don't you.
 
R

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
chespace said:
What are the software predictions for Uncharted this Thursday?

Forza Motorsport 2 outsold Uncharted in the UK last week. :p
Click to expand...

Do you mean for the same period in Forza 2's life cycle or that last week Forza 2's sales were higher than Uncharted's? If it's the latter, that's incredible... incredible your game has that kind of legs (congrats) and incredible that PS3 owners have a strange reluctance to buy awesome, GOTY-contending games.
 
M

MightyHedgehog

Member
sooperkool said:
Again, it seems that for the PS3 its more of "just wait until..." Although by this time next year, this gen will be half over. PS3 is going to be 3rd in NA and thats just about a done deal, it will be 3rd globally too but not by such a large margin as in NA.
Click to expand...
While I agree that PS3 is pretty much stuck in third place for the gen, I'm not sure the generation will be halfway done by end of next year. The high cost of development and the length of development cycles compounded by the complexity of making a game for current hardware (X360 and PS3 for just getting things done and Wii for trying to figure out how to make a good game that uses the input) pretty much ensures that most publishers won't be very keen to drop the gen for a lot longer to recoup investments. The higher prices that the current gen started with also means that the tail is longer, especially if the economy in some or all of the major territories means that most won't be so hot on moving up to another expensive purchase so soon. 2012 at the very earliest is where the gen will start to move on, IMO.
 
B

BenjaminBirdie

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
Gah, I'd almost forgotten to book my schedule at work so no one drops a meeting on me. Time now blocked. And I have to admit, part of the reason I'm hoping for some major surprises is because that heightens the odds of someone suffering a cataclysmic meltdown in the NPD thread. We're talking RSTEIN in the Wolverine OT thread kind of proportions. Call me morbid.
Click to expand...

It might not be surprises that cause meltdowns but rather the gradual accruing force of the PAL Charts this week and the Prizefighter PS3 snub repeatedly flicking PS3 fans on the back of the ear. NPD will just be that final whomp that could make someone turn around and go "GODDAMIT WILL YOU STOP FUCKING DOING THAT PLEASE."
 
F

FirstInHell

Banned
Wait for Motorstorm
Wait for VF5
Wait for Heavenly Sword
Wait for Warhawk
Wait for Ratchet
Wait for Uncharted
...
Wait for MGS4
Wait for GOW3
Wait for FFVIII

I am suprised that nobody is seeing a trend here.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
FirstInHell said:
Wait for Motorstorm
Wait for VF5
Wait for Heavenly Sword
Wait for Warhawk
Wait for Ratchet
Wait for Uncharted
...
Wait for MGS4
Wait for GOW3
Wait for FFVIII

I am suprised that nobody is seeing a trend here.
Click to expand...

Oh, most of us have. It's certain other people that haven't...
 
B

BenjaminBirdie

Banned
FirstInHell said:
Wait for Motorstorm
Wait for VF5
Wait for Heavenly Sword
Wait for Warhawk
Wait for Ratchet
Wait for Uncharted
...
Wait for MGS4
Wait for GOW3
Wait for FFVIII

I am suprised that nobody is seeing a trend here.
Click to expand...

I think most people are seeing it, actually.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
BenjaminBirdie said:
It might not be surprises that cause meltdowns but rather the gradual accruing force of the PAL Charts this week and the Prizefighter PS3 snub repeatedly flicking PS3 fans on the back of the ear. NPD will just be that final whomp that could make someone turn around and go "GODDAMIT WILL YOU STOP FUCKING DOING THAT PLEASE."
Click to expand...
:lol

There's some wildcards in the NPD this month. How many Wii's did Nintendo make? It's hard to tell given how quickly they are snapped up. Beyond that, I'm most curious about the PS3 (and from the discussion in this thread, I'm not alone).

jarrod nailed where I think the PS3 is heading WW last page, but in the US I think November will provide the clearest signal as to where it's trending here for the next year. They had an effective $100 price cut, several excellent releases and an extra week of sales after Thanksgiving compared to last year. If it can start to match the sales the 360 did last year then I think there's hope for it to build a sizable userbase; follow the 360's trajectory, just lagging by a year and with a poor start behind it. If they hit ~400k or less, the ecosystem around the platform will erode a bit next year. (We've seen small blips like 2K's boxing game not announced for PS3. Not a huge deal - but could be a foreshadowing if the PS3 doesn't really build the installed base this holiday.)

More than any other month so far, November will be a glimpse into the future of where we're trending for this generation.
 
goldenpp72

goldenpp72

Member
FirstInHell said:
Wait for Motorstorm
Wait for VF5
Wait for Heavenly Sword
Wait for Warhawk
Wait for Ratchet
Wait for Uncharted
...
Wait for MGS4
Wait for GOW3
Wait for FFVIII

I am suprised that nobody is seeing a trend here.
Click to expand...

Wait for ninja gaiden 2 on ps3! IT WILL BE NAMED SOMETHING ELSE!
 
J

JavyOO7

Member
While SMG is one of the most fantastic games I have played in some odd years, I doubt it sold that much. That'd be insane and it could bode for a similar December performance.
 
Z

Zombie James

Banned
FirstInHell said:
Wait for Motorstorm
Wait for VF5
Wait for Heavenly Sword
Wait for Warhawk
Wait for Ratchet
Wait for Uncharted
...
Wait for MGS4
Wait for GOW3
Wait for FFVIII

I am suprised that nobody is seeing a trend here.
Click to expand...

Funny, the quality of all those games is actually pretty good and they all reviewed well (and Motorstorm topped 1 million sales, btw). Why those titles haven't pushed hardware sales is anyone's guess, but it wasn't foolish to think they could have.
 
S

sooperkool

Member
MightyHedgehog said:
While I agree that PS3 is pretty much stuck in third place for the gen, I'm not sure the generation will be halfway done by end of next year. The high cost of development and the length of development cycles compounded by the complexity of making a game for current hardware (X360 and PS3 for just getting things done and Wii for trying to figure out how to make a good game that uses the input) pretty much ensures that most publishers won't be very keen to drop the gen for a lot longer to recoup investments. The higher prices that the current gen started with also means that the tail is longer, especially if the economy in some or all of the major territories means that most won't be so hot on moving up to another expensive purchase so soon. 2012 at the very earliest is where the gen will start to move on, IMO.
Click to expand...


so you feel this gen will last 7 years before a new one begins to emerge, as opposed to the 6 year cycle i just postulated. I suppose I can see that happening, but the pipe dreams of an 8-10 year generation that some of you guys have is not based in any sort of reality.
 
C

chespace

It's not actually trolling if you don't admit it
GhaleonEB said:
You mean, the 360 outsold Uncharted in the UK last week? I also expect that in the US. :p
Click to expand...

You mean they're counting the Forza 2 hardware bundle numbers?

By that logic, shouldn't Marvel Ultimate Alliance be charting about the same in the UK?
 
B

BenjaminBirdie

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
:lol

There's some wildcards in the NPD this month. How many Wii's did Nintendo make? It's hard to tell given how quickly they are snapped up. Beyond that, I'm most curious about the PS3 (and from the discussion in this thread, I'm not alone).

jarrod nailed where I think the PS3 is heading WW last page, but in the US I think November will provide the clearest signal as to where it's trending here for the next year. They had an effective $100 price cut, several excellent releases and an extra week of sales after Thanksgiving compared to last year. If it can start to match the sales the 360 did last year then I think there's hope for it to build a sizable userbase; follow the 360's trajectory, just lagging by a year and with a poor start behind it. If they hit ~400k or less, the ecosystem around the platform will erode a bit next year. (We've seen small blips like 2K's boxing game not announced for PS3. Not a huge deal - but could be a foreshadowing if the PS3 doesn't really build the installed base this holiday.)

More than any other month so far, November will be a glimpse into the future of where we're trending for this generation.
Click to expand...

The thing about that is, when you look at Prizefighter, the problem isn't PS3 trending to catch up with 360's performance, but rather that they've never had that software performance that the 360 had, even during its lackluster performance in 2006. That's why I have trouble envisioning it performing "as well" as the 360 did in 2007 next year. Even it does around the same hardware, it will still have a smaller userbase compounded with the fact that it's not the "small userbase" the 360 had. The one that buys all those games and stuff.
 
F

FirstInHell

Banned
_leech_ said:
Funny, the quality of all those games is actually pretty good and they all reviewed well (and Motorstorm topped 1 million sales, btw). Why those titles haven't pushed hardware sales is anyone's guess, but it wasn't foolish to think they could have.
Click to expand...

The list was not speaking about the quality of the games.
 
S

siamesedreamer

Banned
BenjaminBirdie said:
The thing about that is, when you look at Prizefighter, the problem isn't PS3 trending to catch up with 360's performance, but rather that they've never had that software performance that the 360 had, even during its lackluster performance in 2006.
Click to expand...

Which is why I'm more interested in seeing results for Uncharted, AC, CoD4, and Haze than I am the PS3.
 
D

donny2112

Member
chespace said:
You mean they're counting the Forza 2 hardware bundle numbers?

By that logic, shouldn't Marvel Ultimate Alliance be charting about the same in the UK?
Click to expand...

In the U.K.:
Store-created bundles count toward software.
Manufacturer bundles, in the box, do not.

In the U.S.:
Store-created bundles count toward software, as long as they ring up separately.
Manufacturer bundles, in the box, are a different SKU and not counted toward the main game.

In Japan:
Bundled software is counted.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
chespace said:
You mean they're counting the Forza 2 hardware bundle numbers?

By that logic, shouldn't Marvel Ultimate Alliance be charting about the same in the UK?
Click to expand...
I thought it was Forza II and Viva Pinata that's bundled in the UK, which is why they charted up. Saw mention of it in the thread a few times and just assumed that was the case. I also thought those sales were included in these charts. Maybe that's what I get for assuming!
donny2112 said:
In the U.K.:
Store-created bundles count toward software.
Manufacturer bundles, in the box, do not.

In the U.S.:
Bundles are separate SKUs from the main game.

In Japan:
Bundled software is counted.
Click to expand...
Ah, thanks!
 
T

The Innocent X

Banned
chespace said:
You mean they're counting the Forza 2 hardware bundle numbers?

By that logic, shouldn't Marvel Ultimate Alliance be charting about the same in the UK?
Click to expand...

No, it is a separate bundle of controller and 2 games that has "not to be sold without a 360" written on it. However, all retailers are selling them separately for £30-35
 
B

beerbelly

Banned
When Sony releases its bombshell next March (MGS4) I am sure MS will price drop their console another $50. Perfect timing for Gran Theft Auto 4 too IMO.
 
V

Version 3.0

Member
sooperkool said:
Although by this time next year, this gen will be half over.
Click to expand...

Only sort of...I mean, the 360 will be 3 years old, and the other two will be 2. We call a "gen" 5 years, but in reality they overlap and are longer. The Genesis launch -> Saturn/PS1 launch was 7 years, 8 years to the N64 launch. That was the last gen where the market leader at the end (SNES) didn't launch first, making the whole time span longer. This gen, the 360 launched first, but it might very well be the Wii's longevity that determines when it ends. That longevity is an unknown. Everyone's predicting a short life because of the tech, but I'm not so sure. As for MS/Sony, I'm sure they'd both love to be first again next time, but they're also both looking to turn a profit off of this gen before letting it go.
 
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