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Phil Spencer admits defeat in console space, and doesn't think great games would help Xbox's market share.

ZehDon

Gold Member
A blow is a single event. They've had poor performance ever since that xbone stumbled out of the gate. If the run-up to launch was a blow, they could have rebounded much better than they did. Would there be effects that reverberate to this day? Sure. But did it have to be this bad? Nah.
You might need to look up the phrase "fatal blow".
He also said right before launching the Series X they planned to win this generation and outsell PS5 and Nintendo.
Cool.
 

FrankWza

Member
Also have to love the logic that being 3rd place in a market means you must go out of business.
Theyre backed by microsoft and they only discuss revenue and never profitability.
PlayStation or Nintendo would have been out of or close to out of the console business if they had xbox last 10 years. And there's no way they'd have the ability to spend $80 billion on publishers. So normally, it would be very logical.
 
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Crayon

Member
You might need to look up the phrase "fatal blow".

There's not much there to look up, is there. You said it was possibly a fatal blow and I said it was not possible, because imo there are so many things that could have gone better. Strange response to an amicable difference of opinion.
 

ZehDon

Gold Member
There's not much there to look up, is there...
You said:
A blow is a single event... If the run-up to launch was a blow, they could have rebounded much better than they did...
A "fatal blow" isn't a "blow". One description of a "fatal blow" is as the beginning of the end; the point from which everything else reverberates out from for the negative. The Xbone DRM TV TV TV Sports disaster cost them the generation before it even started. Spencer said that generation was the one they had to win. So, if losing that gen is the end of Xbox as we know it, then the Xbone pre-launch failure was indeed the fatal blow. Everything else reverberates out from it. The pre-launch disaster cost them a huge chunk of market share, which in turns inhibited their ability to peruse third party relationships, which in turn costs them more market share. Microsoft put its Xbox's eggs into the TV TV TV Sports basket, and when that evaporated, they were left with a first party roster decimated by Mattrick that was incapable of delivering the games the brand needed to compete exclusively as a gaming platform. It wasn't until 2018 when the cuffs were taken off and Xbox was given its own budget to invest. By then, the damage done was extensive - all stemming from their disastrous Xbone pre-launch run up.
 

Fredrik

Member
Seems this character thinks that we need to sell our PS5 to enjoy a game on XBOX.

Does the guy know about the multiple HDMI ports on a TV set?
He was talking about a major shift in market share where Xbox goes from being 3rd place to winning the console race.
If everybody becomes a multi console gamer they could in best case scenario get 33% of the market. But since Xbox is completely ignored in certain markets, and maybe aren’t even sold at certain places, it’s naive to think that Microsoft could ever reach even 33%.
 
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Crayon

Member
You said:

A "fatal blow" isn't a "blow". One description of a "fatal blow" is as the beginning of the end; the point from which everything else reverberates out from for the negative. The Xbone DRM TV TV TV Sports disaster cost them the generation before it even started. Spencer said that generation was the one they had to win. So, if losing that gen is the end of Xbox as we know it, then the Xbone pre-launch failure was indeed the fatal blow. Everything else reverberates out from it. The pre-launch disaster cost them a huge chunk of market share, which in turns inhibited their ability to peruse third party relationships, which in turn costs them more market share. Microsoft put its Xbox's eggs into the TV TV TV Sports basket, and when that evaporated, they were left with a first party roster decimated by Mattrick that was incapable of delivering the games the brand needed to compete exclusively as a gaming platform. It wasn't until 2018 when the cuffs were taken off and Xbox was given its own budget to invest. By then, the damage done was extensive - all stemming from their disastrous Xbone pre-launch run up.

Yeah I get it. I don't buy it though. They've been doing consistently mediocre work for a long time now. No death blow required.
 

Poltz

Member
Lol, not even close. Xbox has hardware people are buying and services people are enjoying. We're all just waiting for their games. This is the PS3 in the first half of its lifespan: a great console with poor games.

With the Xbone, their games, services, and hardware didn't matter - no one wanted anything to do with them, regardless of what they were selling. That's a lower point than console has ever had. It was so bad that Microsoft are still recovering.
You are not telling the truth here. Xbox One was doing very well in the US, the Xbox Series is getting bodied by the PS5 in NPDs now.



 
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Crayon

Member
You are not telling the truth here. Xbox One was doing very well in the US, the Xbox Series is getting bodied by the PS5 in NPDs now.





See, the digital library is not as important as phil says. It's a thing but looking at the numbers, people are obviously switching.
 

ZehDon

Gold Member
Same time you were talking about. The plan and runup to the xbo launch.
Cool, so you agree with me then.
You are not telling the truth here. Xbox One was doing very well in the US, the Xbox Series is getting bodied by the PS5 in NPDs now...
As the commenters at the time noted, doing well in one market doesn't matter when you lose 50% of your entire market share. Unless you think the Xbone outperformed the Xbox 360?
 

Poltz

Member
Cool, so you agree with me then.

As the commenters at the time noted, doing well in one market doesn't matter when you lose 50% of your entire market share. Unless you think the Xbone outperformed the Xbox 360?
The US has always been the frame of reference for the success of the Xbox brand as it’s biggest market. Xbox is now losing market share in the US to PlayStation so yes it is worse now. They are coming off a decade where Sony 1st party has reached a level of quality they didnt have in the PS3 era.
 
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You said:

A "fatal blow" isn't a "blow". One description of a "fatal blow" is as the beginning of the end; the point from which everything else reverberates out from for the negative. The Xbone DRM TV TV TV Sports disaster cost them the generation before it even started. Spencer said that generation was the one they had to win. So, if losing that gen is the end of Xbox as we know it, then the Xbone pre-launch failure was indeed the fatal blow. Everything else reverberates out from it. The pre-launch disaster cost them a huge chunk of market share, which in turns inhibited their ability to peruse third party relationships, which in turn costs them more market share. Microsoft put its Xbox's eggs into the TV TV TV Sports basket, and when that evaporated, they were left with a first party roster decimated by Mattrick that was incapable of delivering the games the brand needed to compete exclusively as a gaming platform. It wasn't until 2018 when the cuffs were taken off and Xbox was given its own budget to invest. By then, the damage done was extensive - all stemming from their disastrous Xbone pre-launch run up.
The way nothing sticks to Phil is remarkable, maybe DuPont should research him to develop the next teflon. Teflon Phil was the head of Xbox studios since 2008. If he had been doing his job properly, Don's PR fiasco could have been overcome in a few years via great first party games. After all Ken Kutaragi's "get a second job" fiasco was nearly forgotten by the end of the PS3's lifecycle thanks to some remarkable first party games.

The excuses made on Phil's behalf are absolutely insane and reek of Stockholm syndrome. When Phil was head of Xbox studios, he couldn't do anything as Don was his boss. Now that he is head of Xbox, he is still not high enough in the MS hierarchy to do anything as his MS bosses have him on a tight leash, whilst simultaneously not being low enough to have sufficient oversight of his own first party studios. Bear in mind that this is a guy who had put in excess of 250 hours on Vampire survivors, while having less than an hour of game time on his own first party vampire game. He also expected Redfall to review in the 70-80 range, how is this possible for a guy as video game literate as him. Jim Ryan might not be a gamer like Papa Phil, but atleast he knows how to run a tight ship.

The interview clearly shows a person who does not deserve his current job and who is acutely aware of this fact (he himself admitted that he is paid way too much). He should step down and make a full-time job of grinding cheevos in Vampire Survivors and other games that catch his fancy.
 

Mobilemofo

Member
Microsoft have had decades to build a catalogue of great games. Seriously...from 06 - 09 was peak Microsoft. Not a lot since then, and that's a shame.

If you build it (them), they will come. (After planning, budgeting, ya know, the usual stuff)
 

ZehDon

Gold Member
In the US, their most critical market? Yes.
Excellent - can you please show your breakdown of Xbox's current market share, and how their market share losses have accelerated since the launch of the Xbox Series generation.
The way nothing sticks to Phil is remarkable, maybe DuPont should research him to develop the next teflon. Teflon Phil was the head of Xbox studios since 2008. If he had been doing his job properly, Don's PR fiasco could have been overcome in a few years via great first party games. After all Ken Kutaragi's "get a second job" fiasco was nearly forgotten by the end of the PS3's lifecycle thanks to some remarkable first party games.

The excuses made on Phil's behalf are absolutely insane and reek of Stockholm syndrome. When Phil was head of Xbox studios, he couldn't do anything as Don was his boss. Now that he is head of Xbox, he is still not high enough in the MS hierarchy to do anything as his MS bosses have him on a tight leash, whilst simultaneously not being low enough to have sufficient oversight of his own first party studios. Bear in mind that this is a guy who had put in excess of 250 hours on Vampire survivors, while having less than an hour of game time on his own first party vampire game. He also expected Redfall to review in the 70-80 range, how is this possible for a guy as video game literate as him. Jim Ryan might not be a gamer like Papa Phil, but atleast he knows how to run a tight ship.

The interview clearly shows a person who does not deserve his current job and who is acutely aware of this fact (he himself admitted that he is paid way too much). He should step down and make a full-time job of grinding cheevos in Vampire Survivors and other games that catch his fancy.
Not sure why you quoted me, nothing in your rant has anything to do with my post. I know this, because my post doesn't include the words "Phil" or "Spencer".
 
Excellent - can you please show your breakdown of Xbox's current market share, and how their market share losses have accelerated since the launch of the Xbox Series generation.

Not sure why you quoted me, nothing in your rant has anything to do with my post. I know this, because my post doesn't include the words "Phil" or "Spencer".
Who is responsible for losing that gen (Xbox One)? Was it solely Dan or did the head of Xbox studios and subsequent head of Xbox have anything to do with it? And unless he is shown the door is there any way to improve on the current situation. Kaz accepted the responsibility for the loss of the early PS3 gen and then worked hard to right the PS brand via great first party games, with the fruits of his labor showing up in the next gen. So long as Phil is the head of Xbox, nothing is going to change as he and more imporatantly those who carry water for him will keep shifting the blame to those above him and below him.
 

Poltz

Member
Excellent - can you please show your breakdown of Xbox's current market share, and how their market share losses have accelerated since the launch of the Xbox Series generation.

Not sure why you quoted me, nothing in your rant has anything to do with my post. I know this, because my post doesn't include the words "Phil" or "Spencer".
I can give you the total up until November 2022. Take it or leave it.
 

ZehDon

Gold Member
Who is responsible for losing that gen (Xbox One)? Was it solely Dan or did the head of Xbox studios and subsequent head of Xbox have anything to do with it? And unless he is shown the door is there any way to improve on the current situation. Kaz accepted the responsibility for the loss of the early PS3 gen and then worked hard to right the PS brand via great first party games, with the fruits of his labor showing up in the next gen. So long as Phil is the head of Xbox, nothing is going to change as he and more imporatantly those who carry water for him will keep shifting the blame to those above him and below him.
This kind of binary black and white blame doesn't really work in the real work. In the real world, Microsoft - the corporation - lost that generation. CEO Steve Balmer approved the overall Xbone strategy, and even shopped it around for TV deals for their Xbox TV division. Mattrick was responsible for the shift to casual focus in the latter half of the 360 thanks to Kinect, a product he was so invested in he forced it into the box for the next console. He was also responsible for the overreliance on Halo, Gears, Forza, and Fable in the second half of the Xbox 360s life cycle, basically dismissing everything else. Spencer inherited the aftermath when he was the last one left standing. Across the Xbone generation, Xbox's first parties underdelivered, and their attempts to shore up their content with deals like Tomb Raider exclusivity didn't result in the games they needed. And that's basically all she wrote - Xbox limped to the finish line on fumes before Nadella was convinced to give Spencer a budget in 2018. Now, it's up to Spencer to prove his grand strategy. We're five years in, so it should paying off right about now. Game Pass is doing well, sure, but Halo Infinite was an unmitigated disaster, and now Redfall is the first big game coming from their massive acquistions and its DOA and an industry wide laughing stock. So far, Spencer's big play seems to not be working. But I'd say its Starfield that is his make-or-break moment. If it flops, his strategy flops with it. I imagine Spencer will "step away to focus on other projects" before the middle of next year in that event. You don't get spend USD$7b of Daddy Microsoft's money and come up empty without repercussions.
I can give you the total up until November 2022. Take it or leave it.
You just need to show your breakdown of Xbox's current market share, and how their market share losses have accelerated since the launch of the Xbox Series generation. How you chose to do this is entirely up to you.
 
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Poltz

Member
ZehDon ZehDon

From anon source.

NPD 2022

PS5 US NPD HW:

Jan-22: 369K
Feb-22: 128K
Mar-22: 282K
Apr-22: 234K
May-22: 119K
Jun-22: 277K
Jul-22: 301K
Aug-22: 341K
Sep-22: 494K
Oct-22: 456K
Nov-22: 1328K
LTD as of Nov-22: 10592K

XBX US NPD HW:
Jan-22: 307K
Feb-22: 261K
Mar-22: 489K
Apr-22: 267K
May-22: 177K
Jun-22: 260K
Jul-22: 247K
Aug-22: 251K
Sep-22: 288K
Oct-22: 261K
Nov-22: 730K
LTD as of Nov-22: 8736K

NPD 2015

PS4 US NPD HW

SEPT-15 354K (Lower than the PS5 launch aligned)
OCT-15 275K (Lower than the PS5 launch aligned)
NOV-15 1539K (Higher than the PS5 launch aligned)

XBOX ONE US NPD HW
SEPT-15 293K (Higher than the Xbox Series launch aligned)
OCT-15 275K (Higher than the Xbox Series launch aligned)
NOV-15 1296K (Higher than the Xbox Series launch aligned)

Source of 2015 numbers for Sep-Nov 2015
https://www.neogaf.com/threads/npd-sales-results-for-october-2015-up1-xbox-1.1139444/post-185308652
https://www.neogaf.com/threads/npd-...ware-for-ps4-xb1-wii-u.1154795/post-188792408

Nov 13 Aug 15 NPD graph

zP7vAGc.png



Source of Xbox One and PS4 graph
https://www.neogaf.com/threads/npd-...-ltd-600k-ltd-splatoon.1110266/post-178408850

I will tally up the LTD for PS4 and Xbox One after work.
 
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Nautilus

Banned
Is this a serious question?

You're really going to try to rush to the defense of a pathetic corporate shill? Really?!?

This is not the hill you die on, my friend... don't do it.
Why wouldn't it be a serious question?

I agree with him - MS has been out of the conversation of GOTYs and just having great games in general for several years now, that Starfield really needs to be THE game for MS so that they get some room to breathe.

So why is it a pathetic statement, other than you obviously not liking the guy?(Which I have zero attachments with)

We have to promote more actual discussions on this forum, instead of this hate boner people get on sometimes just because they don't like a dude. And if you really think that guy is too stupid/untrustworthy/trolling/etc, either don't bring it up or don't interact with it.
 
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drganon

Member
Why wouldn't it be a serious question?

I agree with him - MS has been out of the conversation of GOTYs and just having great games in general for several years now, that Starfield really needs to be THE game for MS so that they get some room to breathe.

So why is it a pathetic statement, other than you obviously not liking the guy?(Which I have zero attachments with)

We have to promote more actual discussions on this forum, instead of this hate boner people get on sometimes just because they don't like a dude. And if you really think that guy is too stupid/untrustworthy/trolling/etc, either don't bring it up or don't interact with it.
300px-NoFunAllowed.jpg
 
Why wouldn't it be a serious question?

I agree with him - MS has been out of the conversation of GOTYs and just having great games in general for several years now, that Starfield really needs to be THE game for MS so that they get some room to breathe.

So why is it a pathetic statement, other than you obviously not liking the guy?(Which I have zero attachments with)

We have to promote more actual discussions on this forum, instead of this hate boner people get on sometimes just because they don't like a dude. And if you really think that guy is too stupid/untrustworthy/trolling/etc, either don't bring it up or don't interact with it.

You're actually defending a shameless corporate shill... next thing you know you'll be trying to justify Florian's faux-reasoning next too.

Wow... you actually went there... and after I even warned you not too... I'm embarrassed for you, fam.
 
It’s a pattern, great games now somehow don’t make a game console sell, but soon… They figure out what the success formula is: TV TV TV TV. History repeats itself.
 

Nautilus

Banned
You're actually defending a shameless corporate shill... next thing you know you'll be trying to justify Florian's faux-reasoning next too.

Wow... you actually went there... and after I even warned you not too... I'm embarrassed for you, fam.
I'm lost. Who is Florian?

At least I am not insulting another user and trying to shame in order to shut people up, instead of actually discussing things through.
 

TheGrat1

Member
Well im certainly glad Sony didnt have this mentality after the early struggles of the PS3 i can tell you that much.

Edit: or Nintendo after wiiU for that matter
Sony had the exact opposite mentality.
Kaz Hirai in January 2009:
"I'd like to think that we continue official leadership in this industry,"
"It's difficult to talk about Nintendo because we don't look at their console as being competitors. They're a different world and we operate in our world - that's kind of the way I look at things.
"And with the Xbox - again, I can't come up with one word to fit. You need a word that describes something that lacks longevity,"

"Last time I checked, they've never had a console that's been on the market for more than four or five years and we've committed to a ten year life cycle, so you do the math.

"And unless things go really bad there's no way that at the end of a life cycle our competition is going to have a higher install base,"
TL;DR: We still run this shit and we are going to surpass these guys.
 
look at the stuff I boded... tell me how anyone would read what you said as anything other than, the problem isn't the games but that Xbox doesn't have stock.

Just look at how many times you talked about Xbox and Sony stock...
Less stuff bold then when you actually truthfully go through the post as shown:
I think people are looking at this out of context because of people like playing favorites.

He's saying that even a legendary game release can't turn around the current issues that are preventing Xbox from being able to outsell Sony. We already knew this based on their problems about stock and a declining retail presence since some developers would rather go all-in on gamepass than print discs.

Starfield could be an 11/10, it could be a 20/10 game
, and it still wouldn't change the needle because there's not enough consoles out there for a 20/10 game to sell enough to catch up. Sony had 6 months of shipment improvements and now has a ton of consoles out there to buy. The only thing Microsoft has with similar progress is the S, but because the S is very different than the more powerful X unit, there's many people who won't touch it. If Starfield could sell 10 million S and X each, and its a legendary 30/10 game, there would still need to be 10m of both consoles out there to buy. i don't even think there's 2m out there to buy right now for X.

People are looking at his speech as if he's saying that there's nothing he can do and that Xbox is going to coast from here on, but what he's really saying is that there currently isn't a path to catch up in consoles sold and he's 100% right, at least for now. He even included Activision in that deal because even if the deal went through and there's even higher demand, that won't move more consoles for Phil to out console Jim, if the consoles aren't there.

Whether or not Phil will push to change that or not is the only real question. As of now i am not seeing any changes.
My point was perfectly clear, I mentioned consoles as part of the problem but I focused the entire topic of my post around on how even a 30/10 game wasn't going to matter without changing the other major obstacles Xbox has to remove to catch up in consoles sales, it wasn't only consoles being discussed as you infer. Without major change Phils word is 100% true, and it has nothing to do with Phil not thinking about pushing for quality games or not anymore and surrendering, he was talking about the low probability of selling more consoles than the competition, and CURRENTLY no game is going to fix that problem if the consoles aren't there to move with the game even if Starfield is game of the year, I was pointing out people were seeing this the wrong way as him giving up entirely. Hes clearly saying that they cannot "outconsole" Sony at this point, at least without a major change and improvement to how they are currently operation, even if Starfield was the most revered game in the last 40 years. You're making it seem as if I'm saying that stock is the only problem, there's 3 obstacles preventing Xbox from catching up not one.

The fact he made the statements he made while INCLUDING the Activision deal makes this incredibly obvious to understand, but some people seem to not want to take a closer look at what he's saying. Oh well.
 

demigod

Member
I think people are looking at this out of context because of people like playing favorites.

He's saying that even a legendary game release can't turn around the current issues that are preventing Xbox from being able to outsell Sony. We already knew this based on their problems about stock and a declining retail presence since some developers would rather go all-in on gamepass than print discs.

Starfield could be an 11/10, it could be a 20/10 game, and it still wouldn't change the needle because there's not enough consoles out there for a 20/10 game to sell enough to catch up. Sony had 6 months of shipment improvements and now has a ton of consoles out there to buy. The only thing Microsoft has with similar progress is the S, but because the S is very different than the more powerful X unit, there's many people who won't touch it. If Starfield could sell 10 million S and X each, and its a legendary 30/10 game, there would still need to be 10m of both consoles out there to buy. i don't even think there's 2m out there to buy right now for X.

People are looking at his speech as if he's saying that there's nothing he can do and that Xbox is going to coast from here on, but what he's really saying is that there currently isn't a path to catch up in consoles sold and he's 100% right, at least for now. He even included Activision in that deal because even if the deal went through and there's even higher demand, that won't move more consoles for Phil to out console Jim, if the consoles aren't there.

Whether or not Phil will push to change that or not is the only real question. As of now i am not seeing any changes.
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Stop with the fake shortages. Folks just aren’t willing to pay $559 for the Series X when you can get a PS5 for $499. If you’ll look at the 2nd photo, it appears that ms has stopped shipping the non bundles to retailers.
 

Panajev2001a

GAF's Pleasant Genius
"Exclusives are only okay when we want or have them."
He is one of the social media arms of Xbox essentially, this way Phil and Greenberg do not have to dirty their hands with as bad console war rhetoric.

I think we can agree he meets the definition of “must be a paid shill” ;)… not saying he is not immature or disingenuous too :p.
 
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GamePass isn't sustainable at it's current price. I remember Netflix price as 7 euro when it launched in the Netherlands.
So ultimately the only thing that distinguishes Xbox from playstation is exclusives.

Trip to memory lane: Xbox had Halo, Fable, Morrowind, KOTOR, Jade Empire, Deus Ex, Shenmue, Panzer Dragoon Orta and so many more.
Games that you could use in a list war.

What do they have today?
 
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